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Niftyoptions

Nifty is near resistance area - 22390 - 22400Nifty is near resistance area - 22390 - 22400 for 2 reasons, In charts its at reversal fib level of 0.618 and in derivatives data showing more call writers in Nifty and BN Index and in most of the BN - bank derivatives. I am not sure how index is going to fall in next 2 to 3 days remaining in this April contract. Either fall will be steep and faster or else break out will be with big green bars and bear gang including me has to book some losses in case of further strong upmove.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by venkatfx
#Nifty Directions and levels of April 19th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 19th: The global market trend is bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment also indicates a bearish trend. It might open with a gap-down start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing a -350 point decrease. GiftNifty indicates a long gap-down, so I don't know where it will be open. Structurally, the fall may continue Unless the market breaks the fib level of 38% we can expect a decline. My expectation is correction. The market may undergo some consolidation around any one of the support levels, but there's a possibility of further downside breaks. We can anticipate a minor trend reversal only if it breaks the Fibonacci level of 38%, using the Fibonacci swing from yesterday's high to the upcoming low. If it breaks, we can assume that the minor trend has reversed."
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
16 Apr 2024 -  Nifty Below 22295, Above 22051, Still BearishNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "Ideally, we need one more red candle below 22295 for some bearish safety. 22051 is the next support level which could be taken out pretty easily if the shorts pick up momentum." Nifty hits an intraday low of 22079 today and a decent recovery to end the day at 22177 (22147 weighted average close). Honestly, the dip buyers were not that aggressive, but the bears were not really able to push down the prices.  If you look at the higher time frame i.e. 63mts, our closing today is almost midway between 22295 and 22051. Tomorrow 17th April is a holiday, so our markets will only resume trading on 18th. Thursday we have the Nifty50 expiry, so that makes things more exciting.  For bearish continuation, we need to take out the 22051, whereas for Neutral stance shift, we need to take out 22295. If we fall further below 21913 then that would also mean the negation of inverse H&S pattern of 20th March 2024. The Nifty50 algo trades ended with a profit of 9195, exited prematurely in the opening 30 minutes itself
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
Nifty analysis for 22nd March 2024looks like Nifty is trying to break the trendline above it. if nifty breaks the trendline, it may be a bullish movement. if it crosses below the 21900 level(support marked on the chart), a bearish movement is possible. Disclaimer: All information provided here is for educational purposes and not a recommendation, advice, research report, or stock tip of any nature. Analysis Posted here is just our view/personal study method on the stocks, commodities or other instruments and assets.
NSE:NIFTY
by sudeeptalayek
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 15 Apr 24As we discussed NIFTY yesterday, it opened a gap-down and then continued the momentum. If we look at the chart: The market has broken the pattern to the downside. There is 200-ema support at the downside. I am expecting to take a little bounce back (consolidation) and then continue the bearish momentum. 22385 is going to provide very nice PA support. All important levels are marked on the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.71, which shows neutral market sentiments. However, in the past three days, OI activity PCR has been falling gradually from 1.34 -> 1.18 -> 0.7. which shows bears are increasing their position in the market very actively. There is not much of the support downside right now. The market may continue the momentum after a little bit of consolidation. The bulls are very weak at this point. I am expecting the market to open a gap-down near 200 EMA and then touch 13 EMA after that fall. Reasons: EMA(200) < Price < EMA(13), which indicates Weak bulls structure in the market. (Bearish) RSI < 40 shows strong bears' power. (Bearish) PCR = 0.71, which has been falling rapidly from 1.34. shows bears are actively increasing their position size. (Bearish) Price < VWAP shows a bearish market structure. (Bearish) Verdict : Bearish Plan of Action : Wait for 13 EMA to touch, then sell 22500 PE (Hedge it with 15/- Premium)
NSE:NIFTYShort
by finnova_
7
Nifty prediction for tomorrow 12 APR 24As we discussed NIFTY yesterday, it ended sideways. If we look at the chart now: the market is trading ATH in the zone where it got heavy selling from this region. NIFTY is going to be sideways unless it breaks the GREEN trendline to the downside. The inside marked region (22617-22766) is sideways. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 1.21, which indicates the bullish market. 23200 CE have been written heavily. Other strike prices do not have significant writing. Everyone is in the waiting phase. As you can see in FII and DII data, actively also, options are indecisive. If we see FII & DII data , FII is strongly bullish on the future. Pros and Clients are Bearish on the future. Options data is indecisive, which shows that the market is likely to open sideways. There can be three possible cases: Case 1: Low probability Bullish case -> market breaks to the upside Case 2: The market is going to be sideways in (22617-22766). Case 3: If it breaks the trendline, then it can give a good bearish momentum. Reasons: Price >> EMA(200), that need to be corrected. EMA(13) slop is getting flat. Which indicates bulls are getting weak. RSI = 55 and having bearish divergence. Also, RSI is entering the 40-60 range, which might lead it to go sideways. Nifty is trading in the resistance zone. PCR = 1.21 shows bullishness. but FII and DII activity is totally indecisive. Verdict : Sideways or Bearish Plan of action : Sell 22750 CE and Sell 22650 PE(Hedge it with 15/- premium)
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
4
10 Apr - Falling VIX, Rising Markets and Lower UncertaintyNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow also we are continuing our bullish view and would like to go neutral if we get a close below 22615" Nifty had a gap up opening and was stuck in a narrow range till 13.11 after which it picked up decent momentum. Nifty almost gained 101 points from the intraday low to take out the previous highs. The new ATH is now 22775. In the final 30 minutes, we gave away some gains but Nifty50 closed the day with a total gain of 111pts ~ 0.49% Just when we thought the momentum was fading, N50 managed to climb 100+ points and hit new highs. What is more interesting is that the US CPI (Inflation) data came hotter than expected. As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react. We wish to maintain our bullish stance and go neutral if we get a close below the 22689 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 10 Apr 24NIFTY opened a gap-up and fell sharply from 22768. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at the resistance zone (4H-TF). Also, the market is trading at the support trendline. If the market breaks the support to the downside, it is going to generate a quick fall till 22471. Meanwhile, 22617-22766 is a sideways zone, as marked in the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 1.13, which shows bullishness. But yesterday's PCR was 1.34. That shows the Bull's strength is decreasing, and bears are taking hold of the market. Also, there has been a very good CE writing 22700-23000. There was not much of PE writing today. The market is getting ready for some correction. If we look at the FII & DII data: FII is bullish; the Client is bearish. I am expecting a gap-up to open and then a fall. Reasons: PCR = 1.18 indicates a bullish structure. (Bullish) The market is trading in a resistance zone. There is a high probability that the market will have some correction. (Bearish) Price >> 200EMA and 13EMA >> 200 EMA that might lead to a correction in the market. (Bearish) RSI is showing bullish divergence, which might force the market to be sideways. (Sideways) Price < VWAP means the market is in the bears' favor. RSI ~ 40-60, which indicates a market sideways structure. Verdict: SIdeways or bearish Plan of action: Sell 22700 CE and Sell 22600 PE (Hedge with 20/- premium) Exit CE if it breaks the downside.
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
3
09 Apr- A New High, but a sharp fall afterward. VIX not spiking.Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Nifty hits a new ATH and then falls over 155 points, goes below water, and then closes 23 points lower @ 22642. The new ATH is 22768. The main villain again was the NiftyIT sector which had a -1.59% 566 points intraday fall. Firstly it went up 535 points in the opening 20 minutes and then gave all that away to close flat for the day. I am sure how bad the option traders are feeling because I am one of them. We now have a highly unpredictable market and swings that take out the stop losses both ways. The best trade sometimes is no trade. On the 63mts TF, we have 4 consecutive RED candles. 5 out of 6 candles are RED but the reason is that we started the day with a mega gap-up. For tomorrow also we are continuing our bullish view and would like to go neutral if we get a close below 22615. If we fall below 22513, we prefer to go short for the immediate short term.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
08 Apr 2024 - Nifty get a new ATH, NiftyIT in REDNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "Today was an inside day with no real momentum and that does not mean that we are not bullish." Nifty does a gap up and then continues the climb to hit a new ATH of 22697 by 13.19. You would be surprised that the majority of those gains did not come from NiftyBank or NiftyIT, it came from Reliance, LT, M&M, and Maruti. I initially thought the momentum was fading as the other 7 top players had no steam. Only Reliance was jumping. One striking observation was the sharp fall between 13.23 & 13.27, we almost gave away 65 points in 8 minutes. Looked like a warning shot to me, but the market participants ensured stability quickly thereafter. On the 63mts TF, there is nothing for the Bears. I can quickly relate to how bad they are feeling. It has been a tough 12 to 15 months for them, every time there is a dip, the buyers jump in and push up the prices further. Short covering ensures further upmoves and an SL hit for the short-sellers ensuring the Bears are running out of funds.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
04 Apr - Nifty - The first candle today came as a shocker!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “This is because if Nifty50 reverses, there is no way BankNifty can maintain the positive momentum. For tomorrow we wish to start with the bullish stance itself and go neutral if the 22295 levels are not holding.” Absolutely crazy price action today, we fell a whopping 315 points ~ 1.4% after hitting new all-time highs of 22619. The fall was too furious that it would have taken out all the stop losses of Nifty expiry traders. If that did not, then I am very sure the price action from 10.55 to 13.31 would have. That is because we retraced 276 points ~ 1.24% to go above the swing highs of yesterday. A classic V-shaped pattern, something that is rare on an index like Nifty. If you trade BankNifty, you might have gotten used to it already. Now take a look at the 63mts chart, and see where the reversal came from ~ 22295 levels. That is the main reason why we said a stance change is required only if 22295 is broken and since we did not do that, we continue to remain bullish. But deep down it got me thinking, what is the reason we had a BIG RED candle in the opening 1 hour? No way it was related to technical analysis. It should be a news or macro economic event-related, maybe we will get to know in the RBI Governor MPC address tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
03 Apr N50 -The Bulls have not given up yet, there is still hopeNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “We wish to maintain the bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we will be a bit cautious if Nifty falls below 22393 levels. A stance revision may not be even required till 22295 is broken” As we feared yesterday, we got the drop below 22393 levels but it did not even test the 22295 to mandate a stance change. The intraday low was 22346 from which we recovered 174 points ~ 0.78% to 22520 levels. From there we had a sharp correction of about 96 points ~ 0.43%. This correction would be the excess or the profit booking from those “longs” entered near the swing lows. The final closing was perfectly flat at 22434 levels. This can be considered a big achievement for the Bulls as the opening was pretty bad. I hope we are not making a double top (M pattern) on the 63mts time frame. If the pattern holds then all the efforts taken by the BankNifty index will go down the drain. This is because if Nifty50 reverses, there is no way BankNifty can maintain the positive momentum. For tomorrow we wish to start with the bullish stance itself and go neutral if the 22295 levels are not holding.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
1
Nifty 02 Apr- Flat day, consolidating or deciding to reverse?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “But before we go long, let us give it a day or two because the reaction today may be the after-effect of the adjustments and rebalancing that was done over the last 2 to 3 days due to year-end.” Nifty was falling gradually, almost maintaining the same slope as yesterday. The final 90 minutes saw some activity against that slope, which ensured that we were closing flat for the day. If you consider the 0.71% fall in NiftyIT, it is quite commendable that Nifty and BankNifty held their ground. Honestly, NiftyIT falling was not a good sign - we should be seriously watching that sector to see if there are any weaknesses in the pipeline. NiftyIT is the first sector to react based on global macros (anything except Crude Oil). We wish to maintain the bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we will be a bit cautious if Nifty falls below 22393 levels. A stance revision may not be even required till 22295 is broken. In fact, Nifty might react more to domestic cues than international macros as elections are getting kicked off. We are going into the campaigns with a historically low VIX of 11.6525, I am quite sure this should start rising pretty soon.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
26 Mar ’24 — Scary opening minutes and broken support at closeNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The support of 22051 will be crucial and N50 has to defend it if we wish to go bullish.” 4mts chart No one would really believe it if we said Nifty50 had an opening low of 21947 i.e. 133 points below the last session close. Well, it was just a blip and we quickly regained the 222051 support/resistance level. From 09.19 to 14.31 Nifty was hovering around this zone with no particular intent to go up or down. In the last hour, Nifty made a quick fall of 50+ points went to 22000, and then closed there. The good thing is that we did not retest the opening lows again and the bad thing is that the momentum we had on the last working day is almost gone. We drew an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the 22nd. If that holds true, we should be getting some assistance tomorrow or the 28th If N50 is unable to rally despite the IH&S pattern we will quickly change our priority to a small triple top that is forming and go bearish if 21913 support also fails. Tomorrow we wish to maintain our neutral stance. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram