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29 May 2024 - 22781 broken and we just went bearishOver the last 2 sessions, we tried to explain why we would have to go directly to bearish from bullish. One of the reasons was that we fell below the level that had 2 double tops in April & May. Secondly, there were no additional support/resistance points in between for a neutral zone. What I am not sure about is, whether we can continue the downward momentum, especially because June 4th is less than a week away. If BJP wins back the 3rd time, the markets should outperform. If they get a lower number of seats - we may lose a lot of ground. Hope my direction is right just in time, over the last 5 to 6 months, my directional strategies were just eating the dirt and bleeding RED. I am also quite aware that a move of 1000+ points could level the mounted losses. For tomorrow we wish to start with a bearish tone and go long if 22781 is breached in the 63mts TF.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 30 May As we discussed, Nifty had a bearish structure; It has fallen by 187 points. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading in the bearish zone. The market is trading near the 0.38 fib level, which might provide a good support zone. But I am expecting the market to further go down till fib 0.50 (22481) levels. All the important levels have been marked on the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.65 shows a market bearish structure. As tomorrow is NIFTY expiry, 22700 is going to provide a max-pain. There is more call writing on higher levels than PE writing on lower levels. The market is likely to end near 22500. Looking at the data, NIFTY might go bearish till 200 EMA. . Reasons: RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength. EMA(13) > Price > EMA(200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market. The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish. PCR = 0.65 indicates bearishness. Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market. Verdict: Bearish Plan of action : 22700 CE (Hedge it with 10/-) if the market continues bearish momentum. Note: you can target 200 EMA targets.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by finnova_
6
28 May 2024 - Still Bullish on Nifty, 22781 laxman rekhaAfter we had a slightly red day, i am not changing my stance to bearish yet. I would prefer the 22781 critical support to be taken out before going short. I still believe N50 is catching its breath after the 1100+pts run from 16th May, but the moment we fall below 22871, we are going below the previous ATHs and that could prove quite tricky. In the last 2 instances i.e. on 10th Apr, 3rd May we had noticeable corrections - so the base case to go bearish may be profitable.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 29 May 24As we discussed, Nifty has a sideways or bearish structure; it ended sideways in 1st half, then bearish later 2nd half. If we look at the chart now: The market has broken 50 EMA and a good support zone to the downside. Also, an EMA(13, 50) bearish crossover is about to happen, which might lead to a bearish market structure. The market is making an HNS pattern and has broken the neckline to the downside, which might lead to a target of 22600 levels. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.80, which has fallen from 0.89, shows good CE writing at higher levels. 23000 will be acting as hard resistance at higher levels. Other than that, Nifty has good resistance at 23100, 23200, and 23300. Looking at the data, Nifty might go bearish in the upcoming session with a target of 22600 . Reasons: RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength. EMA(13) > Price > EMA(50, 200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market. The market has formed a lower high that indicates the market is bearish. PCR = 0.80 indicates mild bullishness, but this has fallen from 0.89, which shows good CE writing at higher levels. Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market. Verdict: Bearish Plan of action : 22800 PE (Hedge it with 10/-) if the market continues bearish momentum. Note: you can target 200 EMA targets.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by finnova_
3
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 28 MayAs we discussed, Nifty has completed its 2nd wave and touched the mentioned target. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading in a heavy supply zone. Also, in the second half of today, the market had a huge PE windup. After this huge momentum, the market needs some consolidation to move on either side. There was a huge volume spike that shows the market is not yet ready to break 23000 levels. All important levels have been marked at the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.89, which has fallen from 1.28. shows a good PE wind-off. The market might take some consolidation in the range 22800 - 23100. 23000 is still the maximum amount of pain in the market. sufficient CE and PE are writing both sides. But CE is freshly written, which indicates bears are slowly increasing their position in the market. I expect the market to go sideways or bearish. Reasons: RSI < 50 falling from the upside shows a good reduction in the bull's strength. EMA(13) > Price > EMA(50, 200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market. The market is still making HH & equal low, which indicates a reduction in bull power. If it makes a lower low, the market will have a good fall. PCR = 0.98 indicates bullishness, but this has fallen from 1.34, which shows lots of profit booking on the upside. Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish or sideways market. Verdict : Sideways or Bearish Plan of action : Sell 23000 CE and 22800 PE (Hedge it with 10/-) Note: Exit CE if nifty breaks 23000 to the upside & Exit PE if it breaks 22800 to the downside. But right now, there are more chances for the market to be sideways or bearish
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
2
23 May 2024 - Nifty almost kissed 23000 today, Bulls charged upNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Nifty had an impressive 417pts ~ 1.85% intraday rally, although the bullishness was predicted - I was quite surprised that we had such momentum today, and that too before election results. But if you look at the data objectively, what we had today was quite reasonable. After all, we were breaking out from the all-time highs and usually, that means a quick surge of which the excesses will be shaved off in a day or two. For tomorrow, our bullish stance continues and there are no more resistances above this level, meaning we would not really know where the next stop would be.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
22 May 2024 - Nifty still upward looking, bullish tone continuesReliance and Infy were the major contributors to Nifty's GREEN show today. This happened at a time when the Banks were taking a huge beating. Finally, it came out good for the bulls as the 22519 resistance is now broken safely. The next target is the ATH and then I am not quite sure how much more we can go from there. Lok Sabha election results are coming up in 2 weeks and the markets are getting prepped up for a massive one-side move. The stance continues to be bullish above 22519.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
NIFTY analysis for tomorrow 22 MayAs we discussed, Nifty ended sideways today. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at the higher side of the channel. Right now, the market is in a mini-channel. If it breaks to the downside, it can result in bearishness in the market to 200 EMA levels. NIFTY seems more bullish than Banknifty, where Banknifty is preparing for a bearish structure. It might force NIFTY to be sideways as NIFTY still has good support for lower levels. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 1.10 shows the market's bullish structure. 22500 is Maxpain, while 22400, and 22500 have good PE writing, which is going to act as a nice support zone. PCR has fallen from 1.25 to 1.10, which shows that the CE windup today was good. I expect the market to go sideways or bearish. Reasons: Price ~= EMA(13) and Price >> EMA (200). NIFTY might retrace to 200 EMA levels. RSI is 40-60, showing a market sideways structure.\ Fall in PCR from 1.25 to 1.10 shows Bears are increasing their position in the market. Price < VWAP, which indicates the price is weak, might correct itself. The market is in a consolidation phase, trading at the higher side of the uptrend channel. Verdict: SIdeways or Bearish Plan of action : Sell 22550 CE and 22400 PE (Hedge it with 10/-)
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
17, 18 May 2024 - Nifty looks strong, bullish tone continues...There are a few changes to my daily postmortem report. After I started the MFD business, not getting enough time to write a detailed technical report daily. Thought I would send the reports every day on Thursdays after the Nifty's expiry. The detailed analysis and the 4mts, 16mts, 63mts chart will be explained on my personal blog as well. Here on Tradingview, I will continue to post daily with just the direction and a brief one-liner. You can always contact me if you need more explanation or synthesis. 17th may - Nifty defends 22295 but is unable to break 22519. Stance is still bullish. 18th may - 11.07 candle has a long tail, that went up to 22051 - quite strange though. Targets for Monday - bullish with 22519 to be taken out. Stance will revise to neutral if 22295 is broken
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
Nifty on Radar - Weekly Review | 18 MayWeekly Marubozu bullish candle piercing the STMA band. 22800 could be tested, if broken then we have 23000+ levels and the potential target is 23800 on the projection scale. According to the volume profile the level of 22050 could act as a strong support and according to chart structure the support is 21800. For momentum reading the resistance is 22600. Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssvirdi
NIFTY analysis for tomorrow 20 May | MondayAs we discussed, NIFTY has a bullish structure as it was tested on a disaster management system. That is exactly what happened today. The market had a huge volatility of 500 points in 10 min. There was no order flow; it was like a pump-and-dump scam. What is SEBI doing regarding these spikes? Let's see for tomorrow's setup- If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at the resistance level right now, as it was a disaster management system testing. There were not many players in the market. So there were no big moments. The important support levels 22293, 22100, on the other hand, 22609(minor resistance), and 22763 are going to provide a nice resistance. If we look at OI data: PCR = 1.25 shows a bullish structure. If we notice today after 11:15 AM, there is a heavy volatility with 500 points. However, there was no order flow in the OI data. 22500 is the maximum pain. 22400 and 22300 have good PE writing that is going to provide a nice support. On the upper side, there is less CE writing, which shows that the market is still going in a bullish direction. FII and DII data are not yet available. I am expecting the market to go higher in the upcoming sessions. Reasons: RSI crossing 60 to the upside might be the start of the new bullish trend. Price > EMA (13,200), which shows the market is ready to go bullish. PCR = 1.25 shows a very bullish sign. Price > VWAP means bulls are getting strength. The market has already given a breakout. It was a good accumulation today; soon, it will shoot to the upside. Verdict: Bullish Plan of action: Sell 22400 PE (Hedge with 15/- Premium)
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
16 May 2024–Stance upgraded to Bullish, Crazy 377pts intraday⬆️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "The good thing for the bulls was the fall ended at 10.27, for the remainder of the day we went into a small range bound trade. The final close was flat at -0.08%." We started today right at the resistance level of 22295 and then started falling. We went below yesterday's low and took interim support at 22119 levels. From there the bounce took us to 22295 again by 12.19 and this time the rejection was stronger and it ensured we fell to the next support level of 22051. What happened then was totally unbelievable, right at that level the rejection ensured we were retracing 377pts ~ 1.71% in 1 hour. Just crazy, unbelievable price action - normally we see that during news/event flows. 13 consecutive green candles, 15 out of 16 candles in green - just magical statistics. On the 63mts TF, just look at the size of the 63mts candle - simply wow. Our stance is now bullish with the next target being 22519. If we are falling, we need to go below 22295 for a neutral stance and 22051 for a bearish outlook. The algos were in deep loss today, courtesy of the fast & furious moves in the last 90mts. The forward test algo shows a profit of 2475, but the actual execution was in deep red due to slippages.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram