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NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 6 Jun 24NIFTY gave a really big bullish moment today. It's still an effect, and the market boomed 700+ points. If we look at the chart now: The market gave really big momentum to the upside. The market is trading above EMA, which shows that the market is really bullish right now. There is also a bullish EMA(13, 50) crossover, which indicates that the market is in a bullish phase now. Support levels: 22246, 21850, and 21293 resistance levels: 22640, 22832, 23151 If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.61, which has increased from 0.53, shows a bullish sign in the market. There is no such max-pain Market that is clearly bullish. There is only good CE writing at 23000, which is going to provide a huge resistance. VIX has also decreased significantly, which indicates volatility is being controlled. I am expecting the market: Case 1 : Sideways in range of 22253-22640 Case 2 : On either side, it breaks to either side's trade accordingly. Reason: RSI > 60 shows a bullish structure. Price > EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a Bullishmarket structure. PCR = 0.63 has risen from 0.53 and shows signs of bullishness. Price > VWAP shows a Bullish market structure. Verdict: Sideways in range of 22253-22640. and Volatile on either side, it breaks. Plan of action: Case 1 : Sideways: Sell 22250 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 20/- premium options) Case 2 : Exit the opposite position on either side. It breaks.
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
04 Jun 2024- Nifty almost hit the lower circuit ~ 10% intradayWhat a strange day it has been, the moment the market participants realized that BJP will not get a simple majority - we started falling. That realization came in the opening minutes and did not give me ample time to prepare. Honestly, I did not expect such a move today. I really thought we would have the reaction on Wednesday instead. I was not really ready with my short position and to be frank, I lost almost 5 lakhs as opportunity cost today. Nifty ended up negating the last 172 days of upmove, in the single daily candle of today. It is like watching your building collapse, something that you took 6 months to build. Interestingly the reversal came at the 200 EMA and not at 21491. If you notice my chart, I do not have a support/resistance level between 21491 and 19855 - if we break that tomorrow, it is going to be a free-fall. Stance updated to bearish till proven wrong. Current, NDA 291, INDIA 234, Others 18.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
31 May 2024 - Stance changed to neutral, all eyes on exit pollNifty was unable to break the 22519 support, the entire day we spent hovering around this support resistance level - but the sheer inability to break shows the lack of strength of the Bears. I would have maintained the bearish stance if we had at least 1 candle below this level. Currently, the next support level is at 22295 and the resistance level is at 22781. All eyes are on the exit polls now, to be frank - technical analysis won't work when there is news flow and there is no way to predict what is coming next. To be honest, I am not aware if BJP will get the number of seats they had in mind or if we have a coalition govt or not. Personally, I prefer not to predict but take some aggressive positions once a clue appears. My expectations for markets next week, post election results 1. 400+ seats - up 5%+ 2. 270 to 399 seats - down 5 to 10% 3. less than 270 seats - down 25% I am of the impression that we may have a fall after the initial surge as a few sectors are overvalued.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
1
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow | 3 June | MondayAs we discussed, Nifty had a sideways structure; it was sideways the whole day. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading in the range while taking good resistance at 200-EMA. The market is very volatile as VIX is 24.60. the market is trading in the range 22465 - 22639. If we look at the last two candles, it is a huge volume from the support zone as well as selling from the resistance zone. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.76, which has fallen from 0.53, shows a market bullish structure. 22500 is going to be MaxPain. 23000 is very Hard resistance with heavy CE writing. I am expecting: Case 1 : Sideways in the range 22465 - 22639. Case 2 : If the market breaks 22465 to the downside or if the market breaks the upside, it will be bullish. Reasons: RSI < 50 shows a weak bull strength. Price < EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a bearish market. The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish unless the market tends to form a Higher-High. PCR = 0.76 indicates neutral market behavior. Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market. Verdict: Sideways in range also can break to either side. Plan of action : Case 1: Sideways: Sell 22450 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 40/-) Case 2: Exit the loss-making leg once it breaks the channel.
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
4
30 May 2024 - Nifty did not break the 22519 decisively, bearish Over the last 1 week, Nifty hits a new ATH of 23110 and falls 3% ~ 693pts. On a week-2-week basis, we have only fallen 395pts ~ 1.72%. What is more important is that we have started a nice reversal, what needs to be seen is if we get a stronger fall this time. On every other occasion, the dip buyers emerged and ensured our indices were continuing the one-way trip i.e. upwards. Usually, every bull run will have a healthy correction, but in our case - we never even had a decent fall.  Yesterday we went short on Nifty and stayed neutral on BankNifty. Quite happy to see those trades went quite well. Nifty went all the way down to 22417 before retracing the support level of 22519 to close above. If we closed below 22519 today - it would have given a lot of confidence to the bears. Nevertheless, our view still remains bearish for Nifty and neutral for BankNifty. The real momentum should pick up once BN also joins N50 by breaking its support of 48661.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 31 May 24As we discussed, Nifty had a bearish structure; It has fallen by 287 points. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading in the bearish zone below 200 EMA. The market has taken support from the 0.50 Fib level while making a Morningstar pattern with a very nice volume spike. Price is trading below EMAs, showing a weak bull structure. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.53, which has fallen from 0.63, shows a market bearish structure. 22500 is going to be MaxPain. There is significantly more CE writing than PE writing, which shows that, right now, big players are just pushing the market to the downside. I am expecting: Case 1: Inside the Orange trendline, the market is going to be sideways in the range 22465-22613. Case 2: If the market breaks 22465 to the downside, we might see more bearishness to lower levels of 22200. Reasons: RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength. RSI showing Bullish divergence. Price < EMA(13,200), which indicates a bearish market. The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish unless the market tends to form a Higher-High. PCR = 0.53 indicates huge bearishness. Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market. The market is making Morningstar star, which might force the market to hold the 22465 level. Verdict: Bearish or Sideways Plan of action : Case 1: Sideways: Sell 22450 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 30/-) Case 2: Bearish: 22400 CE (Hedge it with 30/- CE) if the market continues bearish momentum.
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
6
29 May 2024 - 22781 broken and we just went bearishOver the last 2 sessions, we tried to explain why we would have to go directly to bearish from bullish. One of the reasons was that we fell below the level that had 2 double tops in April & May. Secondly, there were no additional support/resistance points in between for a neutral zone. What I am not sure about is, whether we can continue the downward momentum, especially because June 4th is less than a week away. If BJP wins back the 3rd time, the markets should outperform. If they get a lower number of seats - we may lose a lot of ground. Hope my direction is right just in time, over the last 5 to 6 months, my directional strategies were just eating the dirt and bleeding RED. I am also quite aware that a move of 1000+ points could level the mounted losses. For tomorrow we wish to start with a bearish tone and go long if 22781 is breached in the 63mts TF.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 30 May As we discussed, Nifty had a bearish structure; It has fallen by 187 points. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading in the bearish zone. The market is trading near the 0.38 fib level, which might provide a good support zone. But I am expecting the market to further go down till fib 0.50 (22481) levels. All the important levels have been marked on the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.65 shows a market bearish structure. As tomorrow is NIFTY expiry, 22700 is going to provide a max-pain. There is more call writing on higher levels than PE writing on lower levels. The market is likely to end near 22500. Looking at the data, NIFTY might go bearish till 200 EMA. . Reasons: RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength. EMA(13) > Price > EMA(200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market. The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish. PCR = 0.65 indicates bearishness. Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market. Verdict: Bearish Plan of action : 22700 CE (Hedge it with 10/-) if the market continues bearish momentum. Note: you can target 200 EMA targets.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by finnova_
6
28 May 2024 - Still Bullish on Nifty, 22781 laxman rekhaAfter we had a slightly red day, i am not changing my stance to bearish yet. I would prefer the 22781 critical support to be taken out before going short. I still believe N50 is catching its breath after the 1100+pts run from 16th May, but the moment we fall below 22871, we are going below the previous ATHs and that could prove quite tricky. In the last 2 instances i.e. on 10th Apr, 3rd May we had noticeable corrections - so the base case to go bearish may be profitable.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 29 May 24As we discussed, Nifty has a sideways or bearish structure; it ended sideways in 1st half, then bearish later 2nd half. If we look at the chart now: The market has broken 50 EMA and a good support zone to the downside. Also, an EMA(13, 50) bearish crossover is about to happen, which might lead to a bearish market structure. The market is making an HNS pattern and has broken the neckline to the downside, which might lead to a target of 22600 levels. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.80, which has fallen from 0.89, shows good CE writing at higher levels. 23000 will be acting as hard resistance at higher levels. Other than that, Nifty has good resistance at 23100, 23200, and 23300. Looking at the data, Nifty might go bearish in the upcoming session with a target of 22600 . Reasons: RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength. EMA(13) > Price > EMA(50, 200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market. The market has formed a lower high that indicates the market is bearish. PCR = 0.80 indicates mild bullishness, but this has fallen from 0.89, which shows good CE writing at higher levels. Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market. Verdict: Bearish Plan of action : 22800 PE (Hedge it with 10/-) if the market continues bearish momentum. Note: you can target 200 EMA targets.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by finnova_
3
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 28 MayAs we discussed, Nifty has completed its 2nd wave and touched the mentioned target. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading in a heavy supply zone. Also, in the second half of today, the market had a huge PE windup. After this huge momentum, the market needs some consolidation to move on either side. There was a huge volume spike that shows the market is not yet ready to break 23000 levels. All important levels have been marked at the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.89, which has fallen from 1.28. shows a good PE wind-off. The market might take some consolidation in the range 22800 - 23100. 23000 is still the maximum amount of pain in the market. sufficient CE and PE are writing both sides. But CE is freshly written, which indicates bears are slowly increasing their position in the market. I expect the market to go sideways or bearish. Reasons: RSI < 50 falling from the upside shows a good reduction in the bull's strength. EMA(13) > Price > EMA(50, 200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market. The market is still making HH & equal low, which indicates a reduction in bull power. If it makes a lower low, the market will have a good fall. PCR = 0.98 indicates bullishness, but this has fallen from 1.34, which shows lots of profit booking on the upside. Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish or sideways market. Verdict : Sideways or Bearish Plan of action : Sell 23000 CE and 22800 PE (Hedge it with 10/-) Note: Exit CE if nifty breaks 23000 to the upside & Exit PE if it breaks 22800 to the downside. But right now, there are more chances for the market to be sideways or bearish
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_
2
23 May 2024 - Nifty almost kissed 23000 today, Bulls charged upNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Nifty had an impressive 417pts ~ 1.85% intraday rally, although the bullishness was predicted - I was quite surprised that we had such momentum today, and that too before election results. But if you look at the data objectively, what we had today was quite reasonable. After all, we were breaking out from the all-time highs and usually, that means a quick surge of which the excesses will be shaved off in a day or two. For tomorrow, our bullish stance continues and there are no more resistances above this level, meaning we would not really know where the next stop would be.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
22 May 2024 - Nifty still upward looking, bullish tone continuesReliance and Infy were the major contributors to Nifty's GREEN show today. This happened at a time when the Banks were taking a huge beating. Finally, it came out good for the bulls as the 22519 resistance is now broken safely. The next target is the ATH and then I am not quite sure how much more we can go from there. Lok Sabha election results are coming up in 2 weeks and the markets are getting prepped up for a massive one-side move. The stance continues to be bullish above 22519.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
NIFTY analysis for tomorrow 22 MayAs we discussed, Nifty ended sideways today. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at the higher side of the channel. Right now, the market is in a mini-channel. If it breaks to the downside, it can result in bearishness in the market to 200 EMA levels. NIFTY seems more bullish than Banknifty, where Banknifty is preparing for a bearish structure. It might force NIFTY to be sideways as NIFTY still has good support for lower levels. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 1.10 shows the market's bullish structure. 22500 is Maxpain, while 22400, and 22500 have good PE writing, which is going to act as a nice support zone. PCR has fallen from 1.25 to 1.10, which shows that the CE windup today was good. I expect the market to go sideways or bearish. Reasons: Price ~= EMA(13) and Price >> EMA (200). NIFTY might retrace to 200 EMA levels. RSI is 40-60, showing a market sideways structure.\ Fall in PCR from 1.25 to 1.10 shows Bears are increasing their position in the market. Price < VWAP, which indicates the price is weak, might correct itself. The market is in a consolidation phase, trading at the higher side of the uptrend channel. Verdict: SIdeways or Bearish Plan of action : Sell 22550 CE and 22400 PE (Hedge it with 10/-)
NSE:NIFTY
by finnova_