Nifty 50 Reversal: Critical Levels and Sign of a Possible ReboudThe Nifty 50 index has been showing signs of weakness recently, as indicated by the red candle formations and the current price trending below crucial Fibonacci retracement levels. As of today, Nifty has been testing the support zones near the 0.618 Fibonacci level (24,402.75), which could serve as a pivot for a potential reversal. Let's dive into the factors suggesting a possible market bounce from here.
Technical Overview
1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The price has pulled back from the recent highs around 26,272.50 and is hovering near the 0.618 retracement level at 24,402.75. A break below this level could lead the index toward the next key level at 23,893.70, the 100% retracement mark.
On the upside, if the price manages to hold the 0.618 level, the next resistance would be the 0.5 level at 25,083.10.
2. Moving Averages:
The 200-day moving average is still trending upward, signaling long-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-day moving average is flattening, indicating indecision in the medium term.
The current price is hovering between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting that the upcoming price action could be critical in determining the next major move.
3. MACD Analysis:
The MACD histogram has turned negative, and the MACD line is crossing below the signal line. This is typically a bearish signal, but it’s worth noting that we are nearing oversold conditions, and a bullish crossover could be on the horizon if buyers step in at these key support levels.
4. RSI Divergence:
The RSI is currently around the 36.77 level, nearing oversold territory. Historically, RSI readings below 40 in this range have often preceded significant rebounds in Nifty 50.
Watch for bullish divergence as the RSI nears this key level, as it may indicate that downward momentum is weakening and that buyers could soon gain control.
Institutional Flows
Recent data suggests that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers of Indian equities, particularly with large sell-offs in the cash segment amounting to ₹-8,293.41 crores on October 7, 2024. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have stepped in with a net purchase of ₹13,245.12 crores. This balance between FII selling and DII buying has helped stabilize the market, but FII futures purchases have added some positive momentum.
Key Takeaways:
Support Zone: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (24,402.75) is a critical support. A strong bounce from this zone could lead to a reversal.
Indicators: Oversold RSI levels suggest that the selling momentum is overextended, and we could see a shift in market sentiment.
Institutional Activity: DII buying is providing much-needed support to the market, and FII futures activity shows some signs of optimism.
Conclusion:
Traders should watch for signs of a reversal, especially if the price holds above the 24,400 zone. Confirmation will come from a break above the 25,083 level, which would signify a change in short-term trend dynamics. A failure to hold current levels, however, could lead the index to test the 23,893 mark.
