#Nifty directions and levels for April 23rd.Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 23rd:
The global market trend is moderately bullish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment also indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a gap-up start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing a +30 point increase.
Nifty experienced a minor pullback with some consolidation in the last session. There have been no changes in the previous sentiment. GiftNifty suggests a minor gap-up start, so the market may open positively; after that, if it sustains, we can expect a rally continuation with minor consolidation, targeting a minimum of 22476. If you're wondering whether it may reach the fib level of 78%, the answer is, if the rally has a solid structure, then it may reach the fib level of 78%; otherwise, it will be rejected above the level of 22476.
Similarly, alternative variations also suggest the same bullish sentiment. Until the market breaks the previous minor swing low, it may take a range market to rally continuation. On the other hand, if it breaks structurally, we can expect a minimum of 38% fib correction.
Niftytrendanalysis
Island Top - Reversal Pattern, Rsi DivergenceIsland Reversal,
A significant gap up, or sharply higher price at the open, follows an upward price trend, then reverses to a bearish price trend.
Rsi divergence implies a change in relative strength as compared to price movement.
The price has come out of the regression channel.
Probably we are in the 4th wave, which means we have completed the top of the 3rd impulse wave. This would be confirmed if it closed below 21550 in the coming weeks.
#Nifty Directions and levels of April 19th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 19th:
The global market trend is bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment also indicates a bearish trend. It might open with a gap-down start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing a -350 point decrease.
GiftNifty indicates a long gap-down, so I don't know where it will be open. Structurally, the fall may continue Unless the market breaks the fib level of 38% we can expect a decline.
My expectation is correction. The market may undergo some consolidation around any one of the support levels, but there's a possibility of further downside breaks. We can anticipate a minor trend reversal only if it breaks the Fibonacci level of 38%, using the Fibonacci swing from yesterday's high to the upcoming low. If it breaks, we can assume that the minor trend has reversed."
Nifty50 ( 16th April )Above closing on that White line in any hourly could trigger price upwards 📈
(Sideways to bullish)
22343 -- 19th April
Support on 22343 could 📈 to 22714 -- 22789 within ( 26th April -- 2nd May )
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
#Nifty directions and levels for April 15th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 15th:
The global market trend is bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a gap-down start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing a -120 point decrease.
I'm really sorry, I can't say exactly how the market will react today because of the geopolitical issue.
However, this is my view today: if the market finds support around the immediate support level, then structurally we can expect a 23 to 38% pullback wave. If it has a three-wave structure, it's a better confirmation for correction. Even though after that pullback, if it rejects there (at 38%), then we can expect a correction that may reach once again the previous bottom. And if it breaks, then the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if the pullback sustains and breaks the fib level 38%, it could consolidate between the previous high and recent low.
The alternate view suggests that if the gap-down breaks or consolidates around the immediate support level, it might continue the correction further."
#nifty directions and levels for April 10th.Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 10th:
There have been no changes since the last session. The global market trend is still moderately bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a bullish trend. It might open with a slightly neutral to a gap-up start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a +60 point increase.
Nifty has retraced 38% after the gap-up in the last session. Structurally, 38% is a strong support level. Therefore, if the gap-up sustains, initially we can expect a range-bound market within the range of the last trading day. Directional movement will occur only if it breaks the range either to the upside or downside.
Alternatively, if the gap-up doesn't sustain, it might turn into a correction phase. However, it should break the Fibonacci level of 38%. If it does break, we can expect a minimum range of 22,558 to 22,501.
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 10 Apr 24NIFTY opened a gap-up and fell sharply from 22768.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the resistance zone (4H-TF). Also, the market is trading at the support trendline. If the market breaks the support to the downside, it is going to generate a quick fall till 22471. Meanwhile, 22617-22766 is a sideways zone, as marked in the chart.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.13, which shows bullishness. But yesterday's PCR was 1.34. That shows the Bull's strength is decreasing, and bears are taking hold of the market. Also, there has been a very good CE writing 22700-23000. There was not much of PE writing today. The market is getting ready for some correction.
If we look at the FII & DII data:
FII is bullish; the Client is bearish.
I am expecting a gap-up to open and then a fall.
Reasons:
PCR = 1.18 indicates a bullish structure. (Bullish)
The market is trading in a resistance zone. There is a high probability that the market will have some correction. (Bearish)
Price >> 200EMA and 13EMA >> 200 EMA that might lead to a correction in the market. (Bearish)
RSI is showing bullish divergence, which might force the market to be sideways. (Sideways)
Price < VWAP means the market is in the bears' favor.
RSI ~ 40-60, which indicates a market sideways structure.
Verdict:
SIdeways or bearish
Plan of action:
Sell 22700 CE and Sell 22600 PE (Hedge with 20/- premium)
Exit CE if it breaks the downside.
#Nifty directions and levels for April 3rd.Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 3rd: The global market trend is bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a gap-down start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a -130 point.
Nifty - structurally, there have been no changes compared to the previous session. It continues the consolidation structure. Today, Giftnifty is indicating a little bit of a long gap-down start. So, if the gap-down sustains, the market may follow the direction with minor pullbacks, meaning a correction may occur. However, even if it opens with a long gap down, if it finds support around the fib level 38%, then the range market might continue.
#nifty directions and levels for April 1st.Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 1st: The global market trend is moderately bullish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a similarly bullish trend. It might open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a +40 point.
Nifty has recently rejected nearly all-time highs. I anticipate the market may undergo some consolidation given the gap-up start indicated by Gift Nifty. If the market breaks the previous high after this consolidation, the rally will likely continue. Alternatively, if the gap-up is not sustained, we can expect a minor correction initially. If it finds support around the 38% level, it may form a consolidation structure. On the other hand, if it breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, we can expect a correctional wave ranging from 50% to 78%.
#Nifty directions and levels for March 28th"Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 28th: The global market trend is moderately bullish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a neutral to slightly gap-down start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a -8 point.
Nifty experienced a solid pullback in the last session, but the closing retraced a little bit. According to the wave structure, it could be in the 4th subwave. So, if the market opens neutrally, the 4th might consolidate a bit. After that, if it breaks the previous high, then we can consider that as a 5th subwave. It might reach a minimum of 22211 to 22262. If the 5th wave rejects there, then we can expect a correctional wave. On the other hand, if the market sustains around the 22262 level, then the 5th may extend further.
#Nifty directions and levels for March 21st.Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 21st: The global market trend is moderately bullish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment also indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a gap-up start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a +160 point.
Nifty has closed near the open price, but the swing was very huge. Today, Giftnifty has shown a +160 gap-up start. So, if it sustains, then we can expect further rally continuation, reaching 22077 to 22177 with minor consolidation.
Alternatively, if it rejects around the immediate resistance (22035 to SZ), initially we can expect a 23 to 38% minor correction. After that, if it breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, that's a sign of trend reversal, or if it finds support there, then it may experience some consolidation in the range market.
#Nifty directions and levels for March 20th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 20th: there is no significant difference in the last session. The Dow Jones has maintained a neutral sentiment, while our local market sentiment is also neutral. It might open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a +60 point.
Nifty is maintaining a moderately bearish sentiment. However, Giftnifty indicates a gap-up start; structurally, it couldn't sustain. If it doesn't sustain, then we can expect further correction, reaching the demand zone level. It's a minor support here, so if the market consolidates or breaks the zone, then the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if it experiences a sharp pullback, then we can expect a minimum of 23% to 38% pullback (using Fibonacci swing high to low 22123 to the upcoming low).
Alternatively, if the gap-up sustains, then it may range within the market structure between yesterday's low and the Fibonacci level 38%. We can take a breakout trade once the range breaks, whether it's to the upside or downside, or if it breaks 38% instantly, the pullback will continue with minor consolidations.
#Nifty Directions and levels for March 19th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 19th: there is no significant difference in the last session. The global market trend remains structurally moderately bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment also indicates a moderately bearish trend. It might open with a gap-down start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a -80 point.
"Nifty experienced a minor pullback in the last session. Giftnifty indicates a negative start, but structurally, it has a minor pullback continuation. So, if the market finds support around 21996 to 21961, we can expect a range market or pullback continuation. On the other hand, if it breaks the previous low, then the correction will likely continue, reaching the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the downside
#Nifty directions and levels for March 18th.Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 18th: The global market trend remains structurally moderately bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment also indicates a moderately bearish trend. It might open with a neutral to a slightly gap-down start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a -30 point.
Nifty has a range-bound structure, but the trend suggests correction. So, if the market breaks the previous low, then we can expect further correction. However, that is the final wave of correctional impulse, so if it finds support around 21867 or 50%, then we can expect a minimum of 23 to 38% pullback. On the other hand, if it consolidates or breaks the level of 50%, then the correction will continue further.
Alternatively, if the gap-down doesn't sustain or if it takes a sharp bounceback initially, then it may continue the range further, and we can expect a minimum level of 22146 to 22244.
NIFTY 50 (BULLs VS BEARs) Date - 13th March 2024
Time - 10:05 AM
After seeing today's move of gap up opening and then filled the gap again.
FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE
1. This Volume indicator is more useful than ordinary horizontal and time base volume indicator.
2. Its Flexible to use and you can put wherever you want to identify at that particular time who are the dominators (BULLS OR BEARS), who made that particular move in market.
3. As we can see in chart, I have put 2 Fixed range volume tools for 2 different times, in that Red Lines come out it is showing POC (Point of Control) for that selected range.
4. If Current price is below POC line than we can say Bears are in Dominance , as per current situation in Nifty 50.
5. If Price roaming above POC line means Bulls are in all over Dominance so far.
So, after using this tool we can identify within dark volume range (shown in chart) sluggish movement expected and Until Price won't break POC line and High-volume range either side strong and rational move should not expected.
Lower the volume at any particular price faster the movement we can expect.
#Nifty directions and levels for March 7th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 7th: there have been no changes. The global market trend remains structurally moderately bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a neutral to a slightly gap-up start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a +50 point.
Nifty had a solid pullback in the last session; however, the motive wave is over. So, if the market rejects around the immediate resistance (22537) or if the initial market declines sharply, then we can expect a minimum of 23% to 38% Fibonacci correction. If it breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, that's a sign of a trend reversal (bearish trend). On the other hand, if it finds support there (38%), it might consolidate a little bit.
Alternatively, if the gap-up sustains, then we can expect an extension variation. It could be a long wave because the extension is a big wave of motive, and although the previous rally also has a solid one, if the gap-up breaks the immediate resistance level solidly, then we can expect a further long rally.
#Nifty directions and levels for March 6th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 6th: The global market trend remains structurally moderately bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a neutral to a slightly gap-down start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a -12 point.
Nifty has a range-bound structure, so if the market opens neutrally, we can expect further range continuation. However, a directional move is anticipated only if it breaks the range either upside or downside.
#Nifty directions and levels for March 5thGood morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 5th: there have been no significant changes. The global market trend remains moderately bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a neutral to a slightly gap-down start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a -20 point.
Nifty consolidated in the last session. Structurally, it may be the 4th correctional wave, as the 4th wave typically involves a little bit of long consolidation. So, according to the structure, we could expect the rally only if it breaks the supply zone effectively. The upcoming 5th wave is a distribution wave, and it's also difficult to trade. We should concentrate on the breakout structure; if it has a solid structure, it might take some extension, or if it breaks with minor consolidation (less volume), then it may form a diagonal type.
Alternatively, if the market declines, then we can expect a minor correction initially. After that, if it finds support around 23 or 38%, we can expect further consolidation for an upside breakout. However, if it doesn't take support, then the correction will likely continue.
#Nifty directions and levels for March 4thGood morning, friends! Here are the directions for March 4th: The global market trend is still moderately bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a moderately bullish trend. It might open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a +70 point.
Nifty has a consolidation structure around the supply zone, so it might be in subwave 4th. If the market breaks the supply zone, then we can expect the 5th impulse wave. The 5th wave is a distribution wave, so my assumption is it might be forming an ending diagonal pattern. If it forms and rejects around 22537, then we can expect a correction of at least 23 to 38%. However, if the rally has a solid bullish structure, the rally will likely continue when it breaks the level of 22537.
Alternatively, if the gap-up doesn't sustain, then we can expect a 23 to 38% correction initially, meaning the 4th wave may continue further. However, if it breaks the fib level of 38% structurally, it may turn into a correction phase in the upcoming days.
NIFTY : The tentative stage of a market melt-up stage in PROB#2NIFTY Projection Case Study:
Probability #2
Target Levels & Tentative Timings are marked in chart
In order to navigate the current market uncertainties effectively, it is crucial to grasp the specific stage of the market melt-up. Recognizing whether the market is in the early uptrend, an acceleration phase, or exhibiting signs of overbought conditions provides valuable insights for strategic decision-making. Acknowledging the risks associated with melt-ups, such as overvaluation and herding behavior, enables us to implement sound risk management practices. Similarly, being attuned to the potential dangers of a market melt-down, including fast declines and panic selling, empowers us to make informed decisions in this dynamic and ever-changing market environment.
A market melt-up typically occurs during the late stages of a bull market when investors rush to buy stocks, driving prices sharply higher. It is characterized by a sudden and intense upward momentum fueled by FOMO (fear of missing out). Melt-ups often precede market corrections or downturns, so caution is advised when witnessing extreme bullish behavior.
The exact timing of a market melt-up in NIFTY happened between 2003 to 2008. The rapid and excessive increase in asset prices driven by speculative buying and fear of missing out resulted in the 2008 financial crisis was marked by a severe downturn, triggered primarily by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States.
The duration of a melt-up can vary, and there is no fixed timeline for how long it lasts. Melt-ups are characterized by a rapid and intense upward movement in prices, often driven by speculative and fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) behavior among investors. The duration can be influenced by various technical factors, including market conditions, economic indicators, and global events.
In some cases, a melt-up can be relatively short-lived, with prices soaring over a few weeks or months before experiencing a correction. However, in other instances, a melt-up might extend for a more prolonged period if the speculative frenzy and optimistic sentiment persist even for several months or even years.
It's important to note that while melt-ups can result in significant gains, they often precede market corrections or downturns. Investors & traders should exercise caution and be aware of the potential risks associated with the unsustainable nature of extreme upward movements in asset prices. Monitoring market conditions using potential technical indicators and navigating using geometric analysis can help traders & investors make well-informed decisions during such periods.
In technical analysis, a melt-up is often characterized by rapid and aggressive upward price movements. Here are some technical indicators and patterns that might be associated with a typical melt-up:
Sharp Price Spikes: Look for sudden and substantial increases in the price of the asset, often accompanied by high trading volumes. This indicates strong buying interest.
Breakouts and Gaps: Melt-ups may involve breakouts above key resistance levels and price gaps as buyers enthusiastically enter the market, pushing prices higher without waiting for traditional technical levels.
Overbought Conditions: Indicators and oscillators to identify overbought conditions. Extremely high values can indicate that the market is overextended and vice versa.
Parabolic Moves: A parabolic price pattern, where the price accelerates upward in a steep curve, is often associated with a melt-up. This can be identified on a price chart.
FOMO Behavior: Market sentiment plays a crucial role in a melt-up. Watch for signs of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) behavior among investors, which can contribute to an unsustainable rally.
Low Volatility Pullbacks: During a melt-up, pullbacks might be short-lived and characterized by low volatility. Buyers may quickly step in to take advantage of any dips.
It's important to note that while these indicators may suggest a melt-up, market dynamics can change, and there's always a level of unpredictability.
Risk management and staying informed about broader market conditions are crucial when navigating such extreme scenarios.
Melt-Up Factors observed in Technical Analysis:
Strong Momentum Indicators:
Bullish momentum, as indicated by rising indicators & oscillators having positive readings, can attract more buyers, fueling a melt-up.
Breakout Patterns:
Identification of bullish chart patterns like breakouts or continuation patterns may signal a strong upward move and contribute to a melt-up scenario.
Volume Surge:
High trading volumes accompanying the uptrend suggest increased participation and confidence among investors, reinforcing the melt-up trend.
Supportive Trendlines:
Upward-sloping trendlines provide a visual representation of the bullish trend, and their support can encourage further buying interest.
Liquidity Influx:
Positive market sentiment and an influx of liquidity, possibly driven by accommodative monetary policies, can contribute to a melt-up by facilitating higher valuations. Optimistic Market Psychology:
Positive news, economic indicators, or corporate earnings can create a bullish psychological environment, encouraging traders to adopt a buy-and-hold mentality.
Melt-Down Factors observed in Technical Analysis:
Divergence in Momentum Indicators:
Negative divergences in momentum indicators & oscillators can signal weakening upward momentum, potentially indicating an impending melt-down.
Bearish Reversal Patterns:
Recognition of bearish chart patterns, such as head and shoulders or double tops, can suggest a potential reversal in the trend, leading to a melt-down.
Increasing Selling Volumes:
A surge in selling volumes during a downtrend reflects strong selling pressure, exacerbating the downward movement and contributing to a melt-down.
Violation of Support Levels:
Breaking below key support levels or trendlines may trigger stop-loss orders and further selling, accelerating the melt-down process.
Market Sentiment Shifts:
Negative news, economic downturns, or geopolitical uncertainties can shift market sentiment, prompting investors to exit positions and contribute to a melt-down.
Liquidity Drying Up:
Reduced liquidity in the market, possibly due to risk aversion or tightening monetary policies, can exacerbate price declines during a melt-down.
Analyzing these technical factors provides insights into the dynamics of market movements, helping traders and investors navigate both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Stages of Melt-Up Using Technical Analysis:
Early Uptrend Recognition:
Identification of the initial signs of a bullish trend through technical indicators like moving averages, positive momentum, and breakout patterns.
Acceleration Phase:
Confirmation of the uptrend with strong momentum indicators, increasing trading volumes, and the development of bullish chart patterns, leading to an acceleration of price gains.
Overbought Conditions:
Recognition of overbought conditions using indicators, suggesting that the market may be reaching an unsustainable level of buying activity.
FOMO and Speculative Buying:
Increased speculation and FOMO behavior among investors, as indicated by rapid price increases, a surge in retail trading activity, and a shift towards riskier assets.
Parabolic Price Movement:
Observation of parabolic price movement, characterized by steep and unsustainable upward curves on charts, signaling an intensified phase of the melt-up.
Market Exuberance:
High levels of market exuberance and positive sentiment, possibly fueled by media coverage and optimistic economic outlooks, contributing to a euphoric atmosphere.
Stages of Melt-Down Using Technical Analysis:
Early Signs of Weakness:
Identification of initial signs of weakness in the uptrend, including negative divergences in momentum indicators, bearish reversal patterns, or a failure to sustain higher highs.
Loss of Key Support:
Breaking below key support levels or trendlines, triggering concerns among technical analysts about a potential shift in the trend.
Increased Selling Pressure:
Surge in selling volumes accompanied by downward price movements, signaling increased selling pressure and a potential acceleration of the melt-down.
Bearish Chart Patterns Confirmation:
Confirmation of bearish chart patterns, such as head and shoulders or double tops, supporting the case for a sustained downtrend.
Fear and Panic Selling:
Elevated fear and panic selling as investors rush to exit positions, exacerbating the downward pressure on prices.
Breakdown of Critical Levels:
Breaking through critical support levels, possibly triggering algorithmic trading strategies and stop-loss orders, intensifying the melt-down.
Understanding these stages using technical analysis can help traders and investors make informed decisions and implement risk management strategies during both melt-up and melt-down scenarios.
Risk and Dangers of a Market Melt-Up:
Overvaluation:
Melt-ups can lead to overvaluation, where asset prices detach from underlying fundamentals. This poses a risk of substantial losses when the market corrects.
Herding Behavior:
Investors may engage in herding behavior during a melt-up, following the crowd without considering fundamentals, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal.
Sudden Corrections:
Melt-ups are often followed by sudden corrections or market downturns. Investors entering late in the rally may face significant losses if they don't exit positions in time.
Excessive Risk-Taking:
The euphoria of a melt-up can lead to excessive risk-taking and leveraged positions, increasing vulnerability to market volatility.
Risk and Dangers of a Market Melt-Down:
Fast and Sharp Declines:
Melt-downs are characterized by fast and sharp declines in prices, catching investors off guard and resulting in substantial portfolio losses.
Panic Selling:
Fear and panic selling during a melt-down can exacerbate the decline, causing a cascading effect as more investors rush to liquidate positions.
Liquidity Issues:
Melt-downs may lead to liquidity issues, making it challenging for investors to exit positions at desired prices, amplifying losses.
Financial System Stress:
Severe market downturns can stress the financial system, potentially leading to disruptions in banking and other financial institutions.
Economic Impact:
Market melt-downs can have broader economic consequences, affecting consumer confidence, business investments, and overall economic stability.
A market melt-up poses risks as it can lead to overvaluation, herding behavior, and sudden corrections. Investors might be drawn into a euphoric buying frenzy, neglecting underlying fundamentals and taking excessive risks.
The danger lies in the potential for significant losses when the market corrects, catching latecomers off guard. Conversely, a market melt-down carries the risk of fast and sharp declines, triggering panic selling and liquidity issues. The rapid deterioration can stress the financial system, impacting not just investors but also having broader economic consequences. Both scenarios require vigilant risk management, strategic decision-making, and adaptability to navigate the inherent dangers associated with extreme market movements.
Using Technical Analysis to Mitigate Risks:
Risk Management:
Set clear risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders and position sizing, to protect against significant losses.
Diversification:
Diversify your portfolio across different asset classes to spread risk and reduce the impact of a severe market event.
Stay Informed:
Regularly monitor technical indicators, trend reversals, and market sentiment to stay informed about potential shifts in market conditions.
Avoid Chasing Trends:
Avoid chasing trends during melt-ups and practice disciplined investing to mitigate the risk of entering the market at unsustainable levels.
Adaptability:
Be adaptable and ready to adjust your investment strategy based on changing technical signals and market dynamics.
While technical analysis can provide valuable insights, it's essential to combine it with a holistic approach to risk management and a thorough understanding of market dynamics to navigate the challenges associated with both melt-ups and melt-downs.
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