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RELIANCE – Positive Outlook Post Q1 Results with Bullish OI________________________________________________________________________________📈 RELIANCE – Positive Outlook Post Q1 Results with Bullish OI Confirmation 📅 Setup Date: 17.07.2025 | ⏱ Timeframe: Daily 📍 Strategy: Post-Earnings Momentum Setup with Defined Risk ________________________________________________________________________________ 🔍 Overall View Spot Price: ₹1476 Q1 Result Update: Profit ↑12% YoY, beat estimates — strong earnings trigger Trend: Bullish Reversal – Price holding above 1470 with fresh long build-up in CEs Volatility: IV ~23–27%, stable to slightly rising → good for directional plays Ideal Strategy Mix: Bullish directional spreads or high delta long CE ________________________________________________________________________________ 1️⃣ Bullish Trade Best CE: Buy 1480 CE @ ₹25.15 Why: • Long Build-Up (+60.38% OI) with price ↑3.5% — strong institutional buying • At-the-money with delta 0.50 → responsive to price movement • High OI (27.5 lakh) with active volumes confirms smart money activity • Matches post-result momentum — ideal CE for breakout strategy ________________________________________________________________________________ 2️⃣ Bearish Trade (Contrarian) Best PE: Sell 1450 PE @ ₹10.75 Why: • Short Covering seen (-5.57% OI) → downside hedge positions getting closed • Price ↑3.3% and IV stable (22.36%) → premium erosion favorable • Spot is comfortably above ₹1450, providing buffer • Rests below key support zone post-result → limited downside expectation ________________________________________________________________________________ 3️⃣ Strategy Trade (As per trend + OI data) Strategy: Bull Call Spread → Buy 1480 CE / Sell 1520 CE             → ₹25.15 / ₹8.85      Net Debit: ₹16.30      Max Profit: ₹40 – ₹16.30 = ₹23.70      Max Loss: ₹16.30      Risk:Reward: ≈ 1 : 1.45 ✅      Lot Size: 500      Total Risk: ₹8,150      Max Profit: ₹11,850 📊 Breakeven Point: ₹1496.30 📉 Exit If: Spot closes below ₹1465 (invalidates CE strength and post-result optimism) ________________________________________________________________________________ Why: • Strong Q1 numbers + fresh long build-up on 1480 CE and 1470 CE • 1520 CE also active but minor short covering = good candidate to sell • IVs are moderate, giving clean pricing for spreads • Defined risk, R:R > 1:1, and positive delta makes this strategy safer ________________________________________________________________________________ 📘 My Trading Setup Rules Avoid Gap Plays → Check pre-open price action to avoid trades influenced by gap-ups/gap-downs. Breakout Entry Only → Enter trades only if price breaks previous day’s High (for bullish trades) or Low (for bearish trades). Watch Volume for Confirmation → Monitor volume closely. No volume = No trade. Enter on Strong Candle + Volume → Execute the trade only if a strong candle appears with increasing volume in the direction of the trade. Defined Risk:Reward Only → Take trades only if R:R is favourable (ideally ≥ 1:2). Premium Disclaimer → Option premiums shown are based on EOD prices — real-time premiums may vary during execution. Time Frame Preference → Trade with your preferred time frame — this strategy works across intraday or positional setups. ________________________________________________________________________________ ⚠ Disclaimer (Please Read): • These Trades are shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. • I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. • The information provided here is based on personal market observation. • No buy/sell recommendations are being made. • Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions. • Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management. I am not responsible for trading decisions based on this post. ________________________________________________________________________________
NSE:RELIANCELong
by simpletradewithpatience
SBIN – Bearish Bias with Heavy CE Shorts and Weak Call Structure________________________________________________________________________________📈 SBIN – Bearish Bias with Heavy CE Shorts and Weak Call Structure 📅 Setup Date: 17.07.2025 | ⏱ Timeframe: Daily 📍 Strategy: Short-Term Bearish Momentum Setup with Defined Risk ________________________________________________________________________________ 🔍 Overall View Spot Price: ₹823.35 Trend: Mildly Bearish – Spot facing resistance at 830–840 with weak CE premiums Volatility: IV ~18%–22% (stable to slightly elevated) Ideal Strategy Mix: Bearish directional trades or credit spreads near resistance ________________________________________________________________________________ 1️⃣ Bullish Trade (Contrarian Setup) Best CE: Buy 820 CE @ ₹12.65 Why: • ATM strike with highest delta (0.56) among CEs • Smallest short build-up in CE chain (OI ↑0.73%, vs ~+4%–12% on other CEs) • If spot reclaims 830+, this option will respond fastest • IV is lowest (17.73%) = cheapest in premium vs other strikes Contrarian Setup – Not ideal unless spot crosses 830 with strong volume ________________________________________________________________________________ 2️⃣ Bearish Trade Best PE: Buy 820 PE @ ₹8.65 Why: • Strong Long Build-Up (+29.5% OI), volume-led spike (+46.6%) • Solid delta (-0.44) with decent Vega → responds well to downside • IV is relatively low (19.6%), allowing room for expansion • Ideal strike as spot sits slightly above – quick delta pickup expected ________________________________________________________________________________ 3️⃣ Strategy Trade (As per trend + OI data) Strategy: Bear Put Spread → Buy 820 PE / Sell 800 PE             → ₹8.65 / ₹3.00      Net Debit: ₹5.65      Max Profit: ₹20 – ₹5.65 = ₹14.35      Max Loss: ₹5.65      Risk:Reward: ≈ 1 : 2.54 ✅      Lot Size: 750      Total Risk: ₹4,237.50      Max Profit: ₹10,762.50 📊 Breakeven Point: ₹814.35 📉 Exit If: Spot closes above ₹832 (invalidates PE strength and bearish structure) ________________________________________________________________________________ Why: • Heavy CE short build-up across 820–850 strikes (Bearish Call Ladder) • 820 PE has strong long buildup + clean delta = momentum PE • 800 PE still holding OI, good strike to sell for defined risk • IVs are still in mid-range = spread cost low, R:R > 1:2.5 ________________________________________________________________________________ 📘 My Trading Setup Rules Avoid Gap Plays → Check pre-open price action to avoid trades influenced by gap-ups/gap-downs. Breakout Entry Only → Enter trades only if price breaks previous day’s High (for bullish trades) or Low (for bearish trades). Watch Volume for Confirmation → Monitor volume closely. No volume = No trade. Enter on Strong Candle + Volume → Execute the trade only if a strong candle appears with increasing volume in the direction of the trade. Defined Risk:Reward Only → Take trades only if R:R is favourable (ideally ≥ 1:2). Premium Disclaimer → Option premiums shown are based on EOD prices — real-time premiums may vary during execution. Time Frame Preference → Trade with your preferred time frame — this strategy works across intraday or positional setups. ________________________________________________________________________________ ⚠ Disclaimer (Please Read): • These Trades are shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. • I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. • The information provided here is based on personal market observation. • No buy/sell recommendations are being made. • Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions. • Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management. I am not responsible for trading decisions based on this post. ________________________________________________________________________________
NSE:SBIN
by simpletradewithpatience
HDFCBANK – Bullish Potential Post Results, But OI Shows Bearish________________________________________________________________________________📈 HDFCBANK – Bullish Potential Post Results, But OI Shows Bearish Overhang 📅 Setup Date: 17.07.2025 | ⏱ Timeframe: Daily 📍 Strategy: Post-Earnings Reaction Play with Mixed Sentiment in Options ________________________________________________________________________________ 🔍 Overall View Spot Price: ₹1957.4 Trend: Mixed – Strong Q1 results (profit ↑12%, bonus/dividend declared), but price action weak Volatility: High IVs — Calls ~23–25%, Puts ~29–32% → post-result event premium still elevated Ideal Strategy Mix: Neutral-to-bullish spreads with defined risk or post-IV crush contrarian longs ________________________________________________________________________________ 1️⃣ Bullish Trade (Contrarian Setup with Fundamental Trigger) Best CE: Buy 1980 CE @ ₹24.2 Why: • Strong earnings + corporate action (bonus/dividend) → triggers potential sentiment reversal • CE 1980 saw Short Build-Up (+144% OI), premium ↓25% → ideal for short-covering setup • Delta ~0.41 with high IV (~24.3%) → moderate leverage & gamma in case of price breakout • Use only if price breaks and sustains above ₹1975 with strong candle + volume ________________________________________________________________________________ 2️⃣ Bearish Trade (Trend Following) Best PE: Sell 1900 PE @ ₹16.65 Why: • PE 1900 saw massive Long Build-Up (+70%) but IV surged → may now face decay pressure • Selling this deep OTM PE gives ~₹57 buffer from spot (≈3% downside cushion) • Post-results, downside may be limited → good candidate to play post-IV crush • Spot stability around 1950–1960 invalidates aggressive downside ________________________________________________________________________________ 3️⃣ Strategy Trade (Defined Risk Based on Mixed Setup) Strategy: Bull Call Spread → Buy 1980 CE / Sell 2020 CE        → ₹24.2 / ₹10.7      Net Debit: ₹13.50      Max Profit: ₹40 (spread width) – ₹13.5 = ₹26.5      Max Loss: ₹13.50      Risk:Reward: ≈ 1 : 1.96 ✅      Lot Size: 550      Total Risk: ₹7,425      Max Profit: ₹14,575 📊 Breakeven Point: ₹1993.5 📉 Reversal Exit Level: Exit if Spot < ₹1940 (invalidates breakout + earnings move fade) ________________________________________________________________________________ Why: • Bullish news (Q1 beat, bonus/dividend) could trigger CE short covering if price moves above 1980 • Limited risk strategy — works well if post-result rally is moderate • High IVs favour spread over naked options (caps loss from premium crush) • CE OI from 1960–2060 mostly short → if momentum picks up, rally could be fast ________________________________________________________________________________ 📘 My Trading Setup Rules Avoid Gap Plays → Check pre-open price action to avoid trades influenced by gap-ups/gap-downs. Breakout Entry Only → Enter trades only if price breaks previous day’s High (for bullish trades) or Low (for bearish trades). Watch Volume for Confirmation → Monitor volume closely. No volume = No trade. Enter on Strong Candle + Volume → Execute the trade only if a strong candle appears with increasing volume in the direction of the trade. Defined Risk:Reward Only → Take trades only if R:R is favourable (ideally ≥ 1:2). Premium Disclaimer → Option premiums shown are based on EOD prices — real-time premiums may vary during execution. Time Frame Preference → Trade with your preferred time frame — this strategy works across intraday or positional setups. ________________________________________________________________________________ ⚠ Disclaimer (Please Read): • These Trades are shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. • I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. • The information provided here is based on personal market observation. • No buy/sell recommendations are being made. • Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions. • Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management. I am not responsible for trading decisions based on this post. ________________________________________________________________________________
NSE:HDFCBANK
by simpletradewithpatience
HDFCAMC – Bullish Momentum with Short Covering Base________________________________________________________________________________📈 HDFCAMC – Bullish Momentum with Short Covering Base 📅 Setup Date: 18.07.2025 | ⏱ Timeframe: Daily 📍 Strategy: Momentum Trade Setup with Defined Risk ________________________________________________________________________________ 🔍 Overall View Spot Price: ₹5590 Trend: Bullish Bias – Price sustaining above 5500 with momentum Volatility: IV ~26–29%, relatively stable with mild contraction Ideal Strategy Mix: Directional long with partial risk spreads ________________________________________________________________________________ 1️⃣ Bullish Trade (Naked options as per trend) Best CE: Buy 5700 CE @ ₹60.75 Why: • Long Build-Up (+11.91% OI) with price ↑6.49% = bullish conviction • Strike just ₹110 above spot → good balance of delta (0.41) and premium • High TTV (₹89.9 Cr) and stable IV (~26.6%) → institutional activity • CE 5600 also active, but 5700 is cleaner structure due to fresh longs ________________________________________________________________________________ 2️⃣ Bearish Trade (Contrarian Trade – if present) Best PE: Sell 5500 PE @ ₹59.5 Why: • Short Build-Up on 5500 PE (+118.7% OI), but price ↓45.84% → strong put writing • Spot comfortably above strike (₹5590), adding margin of safety • IV stable → theta decay benefits seller • Acts as support-level hold strategy in case of mild retracement ________________________________________________________________________________ 3️⃣ Strategy Trade (As per trend + OI data) Strategy: Bull Call Spread → Buy 5700 CE / Sell 5800 CE       → ₹60.75 / ₹34.15      Net Debit: ₹26.60      Max Profit: ₹100 (spread width) – ₹26.60 = ₹73.40      Max Loss: ₹26.60      Risk:Reward ≈ 1 : 2.75 ✅      Lot Size: 150      Total Risk: ₹3,990      Max Profit: ₹11,010 📊 Breakeven Point: ₹5726.60 📉 Reversal Exit Level: Exit if Spot < ₹5550 (invalidates breakout + weakens CE 5700) ________________________________________________________________________________ Why: • Strong Long Build-Up at 5700 CE, resistance only mild at 5800 • High IVs make selling 5800 CE favourable → lowers net debit • Defined risk with RR ≈ 1:2.75 fits your trade rule • Market supports bullish continuation over 5600-5650 levels ________________________________________________________________________________ 📘 My Trading Setup Rules Avoid Gap Plays → Check pre-open price action to avoid trades influenced by gap-ups/gap-downs. Breakout Entry Only → Enter trades only if price breaks previous day’s High (for bullish trades) or Low (for bearish trades). Watch Volume for Confirmation → Monitor volume closely. No volume = No trade. Enter on Strong Candle + Volume → Execute the trade only if a strong candle appears with increasing volume in the direction of the trade. Defined Risk:Reward Only → Take trades only if R:R is favourable (ideally ≥ 1:2)(safe = 1:1). Premium Disclaimer → Option premiums shown are based on EOD prices — real-time premiums may vary during execution. Time Frame Preference → Trade with your preferred time frame — this strategy works across intraday or positional setups. ________________________________________________________________________________ ⚠ Disclaimer (Please Read): • These Trades are shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. • I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. • The information provided here is based on personal market observation. • No buy/sell recommendations are being made. • Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions. • Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management. I am not responsible for trading decisions based on this post. ________________________________________________________________________________
NSE:HDFCAMCLong
by simpletradewithpatience
BSE – Heavy Call Writing Indicates Resistance Ahead________________________________________ 📈 BSE – Heavy Call Writing Indicates Resistance Ahead | OI + Price Action Analysis 🕒 Chart Type: 15-Minute 📆 Date: July 7, 2025 ________________________________________ 🔍 What’s Catching Our Eye: BSE is trading near ₹2636, and the Option Chain is showing aggressive Short Build-Up on Calls from 2650 to 3000, clearly highlighting a resistance zone above current price. Meanwhile, Put writers are unwinding, especially at ₹2600 PE, confirming weak bullish conviction. Traders are playing defensively with bearish bias dominating. ________________________________________ 📌 What We’re Watching For: If BSE breaks below ₹2600, we may see a quick slide toward ₹2550–2500. However, a sharp breakout above ₹2700 with strong volume may trigger a round of short-covering. Until then, upside looks capped due to excessive Call writing. ________________________________________ 📊 Volume Footprint: Options activity is backed by strong volume — • Over 8.9k contracts at ₹2700 CE • Over 8.1k contracts at ₹2800 CE • Over 7k contracts at ₹3000 CE → Traders are betting on price staying below 2700–2800 levels, creating a strong supply wall. ________________________________________ 📈 Option Chain Highlights: • Calls (Short Build-Up): o ₹2700 CE: +81,375 OI | Price ↓ 8.82% o ₹2800 CE: +18,375 OI | Price ↓ 11.07% o ₹3000 CE: +77,250 OI | Price ↓ 16.60% o ₹2650 CE: +38,250 OI | Price ↓ 8.01% • Puts: o ₹2600 PE: -42,375 OI | Price ↓ 10.94% → Long Unwinding o ₹2500 PE: +102,375 OI | Price ↓ 16.55% → Short Build-Up 📌 Inference: Bulls are on the back foot. CE writers are dominating across all key strikes, and only the 2500 PE is showing fresh interest — which is far from spot, indicating potential room for further downside. ________________________________________ 🔁 Trend Bias: 🔴 Bearish to Neutral – Unless 2700 breaks cleanly ________________________________________ 🧠 Trade Logic / Reasoning: Every CE strike from ATM to OTM is under short build-up — that's a clear ceiling forming. With no visible strength in Put writing near spot, the path of least resistance appears to be on the downside. Keep a close eye on ₹2600. ________________________________________ 📍 Important Levels to Mark: 🔺 Top Range (Resistance): ₹2731.60 🔻 Bottom Range (Support): ₹2590.70 ________________________________________ 🎯 Trade Plan (Educational Purpose Only): ✅ Best Buy (Equity): Only if BSE crosses ₹2700 with volume ✅ Best Sell (Equity): Below ₹2600 for target ₹2550–2500 ✅ Best CE to Long: ❌ None – All major Calls under Short Build-Up ✅ Best PE to Long: ₹2500 PE – Showing fresh bearish positioning 🟢 Demand Zone: NA 🔴 Supply Zone: NA ⚠️ Invalidation Below: Bullish view invalidated if price sustains below ₹2600 ________________________________________ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. STWP is not a SEBI-registered advisor. No buy/sell recommendations are made. Please consult your financial advisor before trading. STWP is not responsible for trading decisions based on this post. ________________________________________ 💬 Spotting the weakness early helps plan smarter. What’s your view on BSE – comment below ⬇️ 🔁 Share this if you're tracking BSE this week ✅ Follow STWP for clean price + OI based setups 🚀 Be Self-Reliant | Trade with Patience | Learn with Logic ________________________________________
NSE:BSEShort
by simpletradewithpatience
1
How to Trade Nifty Weekly Expiry with OI Shift Setup!Hello Traders! Weekly expiry in Nifty is full of quick moves, sharp reversals, and big traps. To stay ahead of the curve, you need to track where the real money is moving — and that’s where the OI Shift Setup (Open Interest Shift) comes in. This simple but powerful method helps you read the options data live and take trades with strong conviction. What is OI Shift? OI (Open Interest): It shows where option writers are building or exiting positions. A sudden spike or unwinding can signal a shift in sentiment. Shift in Support & Resistance: When Put writers shift to higher strikes and Call writers shift lower , it tells you the market range is changing. Live Clues from Smart Money: This gives you an edge in real-time — letting you ride the move before it becomes obvious. How to Use the OI Shift Setup on Expiry Day Step 1 – Watch 15-Min Option Chain Updates: Look for sudden changes in highest OI build-up or unwinding. Step 2 – Identify the Range Shift: Example – If 22,000 PE OI drops and 22,100 PE OI rises, support has shifted up = bullish signal. Step 3 – Combine with Price Action: Breakout from VWAP, range, or previous day high/low = confirmation. Step 4 – Take Entry with SL Below Breakout Candle: Ride the momentum but stay risk-managed. When This Setup Works Best During 9:30 AM – 12:30 PM: Fresh OI gives early trend signs. During Range Breakouts: Especially when new OI builds just before the breakout. During Reversal Traps: If OI shifts opposite to price move, expect a false breakout and trap. Rahul’s Tip Let OI shift be your expiry compass. It’s not about predicting – it’s about reading the market in real-time. React smartly and follow the flow. Conclusion The OI Shift Setup is a must-know tool for expiry traders. Once you master how to spot range shifts through live OI data and combine it with price action, your expiry trading will become much more strategic and consistent. Have you tried trading with OI shifts? Let’s discuss in the comments below!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal