TCS – Bearish Outlook Intact, But a Wave B Bounce in Play?Chart Structure (Weekly)
TCS has been locked in a corrective decline since the 4592.25 peak. The latest fall into the historical support cluster (near 3056–2890) completed a five-wave structure within wave A. From here, a bounce toward wave B is possible, with resistance around 3350–3600.
Bullish trigger: RSI shows a bullish divergence (price made a lower low, RSI made a higher low).
Upside potential: A move towards the 3350 resistance zone.
Downside risk: If support fails, the next major level sits near 2292 — aligning with a larger wave C.
So the long-term outlook remains bearish, but a short-term bounce looks probable.
Fundamental Headwind
Adding to the technical picture, the looming H1-B visa fee hike is a structural negative for Indian IT companies. TCS, Infosys, and peers with heavy US revenue exposure could see margin pressure in the quarters ahead. This reinforces the larger bearish bias, making any bounce counter-trend in nature.
Illustrative Option Play – Bull Call Spread
For those looking to play the short-term bounce while limiting risk, one way is to structure a bull call spread:
Buy 3000 CE (Oct Expiry) at ₹42.1
Sell 3040 CE (Oct Expiry) at ₹31.25
Lot size: 175
Net Cost: ₹1,899
Max Profit: ₹5,101 (~26%)
Max Loss: ₹1,899 (~10%)
Breakeven: 3011(4%)
Reward/Risk: 2.7
(Note: Prices are as of EoB 29th September 2025. This is only an example to demonstrate risk-managed structures. Not a trade recommendation.)
Summary
Long-term: Bearish, with risk of a wave C drop toward 2292.
Short-term: Bounce into wave B likely, targeting 3350–3600.
Strategy: A bull call spread provides a clean, limited-risk way to play this bounce, while respecting the larger bearish setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
