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Tata Steel (D): Bullish (Sector-Backed Breakout Attempt)Timeframe: Daily | Scale: Linear The stock is challenging the upper boundary of its 2-year consolidation phase, trading just below the critical ₹187.85 (ATH) resistance. The move is supported by a "Bullish Island" gap and a strong sector-wide rally. 🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why") The surge is driven by sectoral strength and operational updates: > Sector Rally: The Nifty Metal Index rallied ~2% today, acting as a tailwind for Tata Steel. > Production Update: The market is reacting positively to the recent Q3 FY26 Production Update (released Jan 7), where the company reported steady volumes despite global headwinds, signaling resilience. 📈 2. The Chart Structure (Island & Resistance) > The "Island" Gap: Pattern formed since Dec 31. - The Formation: The stock gapped up from ₹175.80 to ₹180 on Dec 31 and has stayed above this gap. This created a "Bullish Breakaway Gap" , leaving the previous consolidation (₹170-175) isolated as an "island" of trapped sellers. > The Resistance (The "Lid"): The horizontal resistance is specifically the ₹187 – ₹188 zone (The All-Time High / 52-Week High). - Current Status: Closing at ₹183.30 , the stock is knocking on the door of this final barrier. 📊 3. Volume & Indicators > Volume Profile: While today's volume (25.78 M) is good, the Dec 31 Volume (50 M+) was the real "Ignition Day." The drying volume during the consolidation (before Dec 31) followed by these spikes confirms accumulation. > Momentum: - RSI: Rising in all timeframes, confirming synchronized momentum. - EMAs: The Positive Crossover (PCO) aligns with the "Island" gap, confirming the trend is up. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels The stock is primed for a "Blue Sky" breakout. 🐂 Bullish Target (Blue Sky): - Trigger: A decisive Daily Close above ₹188 . - Target 1: ₹212 . - Target 2: ₹225 . (Psychological level). 🛡️ Support (The Safety Net): - Immediate Support: ₹177 – ₹180 . The "Gap Zone" from Dec 31. The stock must stay above ₹180 to keep the "Island" valid. - Stop Loss: A close below ₹175 would "fill the gap" and invalidate the bullish momentum. Conclusion This is a High-Quality Setup . > Refinement: The "Island Gap" at ₹180 is the new floor. > Strategy: The breakout is imminent. Watch for a high-volume close above ₹188 to confirm the run to ₹212 .
NSE:TATASTEELLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
1
BHEL – Approaching a Key Reversal Zone on the Weekly ChartBHEL has been in a broader W–X–Y corrective structure since topping out near ₹335 on the weekly timeframe. The first leg down (Wave W) completed around ₹176, followed by a steady recovery that is now pushing into a major resistance zone. The current bounce looks like the tail end of Wave X , with price entering the 100% extension area of (a) near ₹301. This is a natural place where counter-trend rallies often slow down or fully exhaust. Momentum remains strong — weekly RSI is pushing into the overbought zone — but there is still no confirmed bearish divergence. In simple terms: strength is there, but it’s reaching the “watch carefully” zone. If a bearish candlestick forms inside this highlighted region (shooting star, rejection wick, bearish engulfing, anything with real intent), it could mark the start of Wave Y , potentially dragging the stock much lower over the coming months. Volume is supportive on the way up, but still not showing the kind of impulsive conviction that usually accompanies a fresh bullish trend. For now, the plan is straightforward: Let the weekly candle speak. If sellers step in here, Wave Y may begin. If price breaks above the zone decisively, this count gets challenged. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BHEL
by WaveXplorer
ITC Limited Weekly Chart – Wave Y Targets Support ClusterITC has been trending lower since the ₹498.85 peak, carving out what appears to be a complex W-X-Y correction. The first leg (W) found support near ₹391.20, followed by a corrective bounce into X at ₹444.20. The decline since then has kept price under a descending trendline, respecting the larger corrective rhythm. Wave Count Wave W: Completed into the ₹391.20 low. Wave X: Counter-trend rally capped at 444.20. Wave Y: Now unfolding, with sub-wave (C) still incomplete. The broader structure hints that ITC may continue toward the support cluster (₹350–375) before this correction runs its course. Indicators Volume : Muted on upticks – rallies lack buying strength. RSI (~44) : Mid-zone, leaving space for further downside before oversold conditions. Weekly 50/100 MA crossover : Adds weight to the ongoing corrective bias. Invalidation A decisive break above ₹422.45 and sustained strength beyond 427 would question this bearish view, hinting at a possible shift back to bullish sequences. Summary Unless ITC reclaims higher ground above 422.45, the bias stays toward a Wave Y completion in the support cluster zone. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:ITCShort
by WaveXplorer
8
Market View & Trade PlanBased on current structure, NIFTY is trading inside a rising channel on both 5-minute and 15-minute timeframes, with short-term price action forming a potential bullish cup-and-handle pattern on the 5-minute chart. Momentum indicators and price behavior suggest a bias toward the upside as long as the index holds above the channel support zone. A buy-on-breakout can be considered above 26,175–26,185, with an initial stop loss below 26,110 (below the handle low and channel support). On confirmation, the upside potential lies toward 26,240 / 26,300, while a failure to hold the channel could open a downside move back toward 26,080–26,040. Risk Note & Probability View The bullish scenario remains valid only if price sustains above VWAP and the short-term EMA cluster; rejection from the upper channel or a breakdown below support will invalidate the setup and shift the bias to neutral-to-bearish. This is a probability-based trade, not a prediction — execution discipline and risk control matter more than direction. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered research analyst. This view is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before taking any trade decisions.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by tangatirahul
1
Equitas SFB (D): Strong Bullish Reversal (Turnaround Story)Timeframe: Daily | Scale: Linear The stock has confirmed a major structural reversal, breaking out of a 4-month base (Inverted Head & Shoulders). 📈 1. The Chart Structure (Inverted H&S) > The Pattern: - Left Shoulder: Lows of ₹59.50 (May 2025). - Head: The panic low of ₹50 (Sep 2025). - Right Shoulder: The recent higher low at ₹57 (Dec 2025). > The Neckline Breakout: The resistance at ₹64–₹65 was the "Line in the Sand." Today's close at ₹66.68 confirms the trend change. - Significance: An Inverted H&S breakout after a 50% correction is a high-reliability "Trend Reversal" signal. 📊 2. Volume & Indicators > Volume Spike: The 9.67 Million volume is an "Institutional Stamp." It confirms that big funds are accumulating at these valuations (Trading at ~1.3x Book Value). > RSI: Rising in Daily & Weekly timeframes. The Daily RSI crossing 60 decisively indicates that momentum has shifted from "Bearish" to "Bullish." 🎯 3. Future Scenarios & Key Levels The stock has entered a "Recovery Phase." > 🐂 Bullish Targets (The Measurement): - Target 1: ₹76. - Target 2: ₹85. > 🛡️ Support (The "Must Hold"): - Immediate Support: ₹64 – ₹65 . The breakout zone must now act as a floor (Polarity Principle). - Stop Loss: A close below ₹60 (Right Shoulder) would invalidate the pattern. Conclusion This is a Grade A Reversal Setup . > Refinement: The combination of Fundamental Growth + Technical Reversal makes this highly convicting.
NSE:EQUITASBNKLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
IDBI (W): Aggressive BullishTimeframe: Weekly | Scale: Logarithmic The stock has confirmed a breakout from a 2-year consolidation phase (₹67–₹107). This move is supported by the highest weekly volume in months . 📈 1. The Chart Structure (The Box Breakout) > The Consolidation: ₹67 – ₹107 range. The stock spent nearly 24 months in this zone, absorbing all supply. > The Breakout: This week's close of ₹114.85 (+13%) is a decisive "Jailbreak." - Significance: Breaking a 2-year base often leads to a trend that lasts for several quarters, not just weeks. 📊 2. Volume & Indicators > Volume Ignition: The 174.74 Million volume is an "Institutional Stamp." It confirms that "Smart Money" is entering to ride the privatization/growth story. > RSI: Rising in all timeframes. The Monthly RSI crossing 60 is a "Super Bullish" signal, indicating the start of a long-term momentum phase. 🎯 3. Future Scenarios & Key Levels The stock is now facing its final "Boss Level" resistance. > 🐂 Bullish Target (The Blue Sky): - The Hurdle: ₹115 – ₹120 . This is a historical pivot. The stock closed right at the edge of this zone. - The Trigger: A weekly close above ₹120 . - Target 1: ₹135 . - Target 2: ₹147 . > 🛡️ Support (The "Must Hold"): - Immediate Support: ₹107. The breakout level must now act as a rigid floor (Polarity Principle). - Stop Loss: A weekly close below ₹100 would imply the breakout was a "Bull Trap." Conclusion This is a Grade A Turnaround Setup . > Refinement: The stock has cleared the Consolidation (107) but is testing the Historical Resistance (115-120) . > Strategy: The volume suggests the resistance at 120 will likely break. Buy on dips to ₹108-110 or wait for a clear close above ₹120 to go full throttle.
NSE:IDBILong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Granules India (D): Cautiously Bullish - Potential Bull TrapTimeframe: Daily | Scale: Linear The stock attempted a breakout from a 2-month consolidation but faced rejection yesterday (Dec 24), closing back inside the resistance zone. While the trend is up (Higher Lows), the immediate price action signals a "Bull Trap" risk unless confirmed by a strong close. 🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Floor Price") The recent volatility and volume are driven by a major corporate event: > Fundraising at ₹585: On Dec 23, the board approved raising ₹1,462 Crore by issuing warrants to promoters and investors at ₹585 per share . > Implication: When promoters inject money at ₹585, it creates a strong psychological and fundamental floor . Even if the technical breakout fails, the downside is likely limited to this ₹585 zone. > USFDA Approval: The company also received tentative USFDA approval for its ADHD drug (generic Adzenys XR-ODT) on Dec 22, adding fundamental strength. 📈 2. The Chart Structure (The Trap) > The Resistance (608-613): This horizontal zone has capped gains since Oct 2024. > The Fakeout (Dec 23-24): - Dec 23: The stock surged 2.34% , closing above the zone. This lured in breakout buyers. - Dec 24: The stock opened flat, retested the highs, but succumbed to selling pressure, closing back below the trendline (near ₹612). > Interpretation: This "Look above and fail" pattern often traps aggressive bulls. If the price doesn't reclaim the high quickly, these trapped buyers will liquidate, fueling a dip. 📊 3. Technical Indicators > RSI: Rising in all timeframes, but the daily RSI turning down from the overbought border suggests a short-term cool-off is possible. > EMAs: The stock remains well above its short-term EMAs, so the primary trend is still bullish despite the failed breakout. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels The trade now hinges on confirming the breakout or playing the support. > 🐂 Bullish Confirmation (The Recovery): - Trigger: A daily close above ₹615 (clearing the Dec 24 rejection). - Target 1: ₹679. - Target 2: ₹721 (ATH). > 🛡️ Support (The "Must Hold"): - Immediate Support: ₹585 . This is the "Warrant Price" and a strong demand zone. - Structural Support: ₹578 . A fall below this invalidates the "Higher Low" structure and confirms a trend reversal. Conclusion The setup is Tricky . The "Close Below" on Dec 24 is a warning sign. > Strategy: Do not chase here. Wait for a close above ₹615 to re-enter. If you are already long, use ₹585 as your strict stop-loss, as promoter buying support sits there.
NSE:GRANULESLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Micron’s AI Pop: Why Patience Matters HereMicron’s earnings-driven rally has put the stock back in the spotlight, with AI demand and guidance upgrades driving a sharp upside reaction. Fundamentally, the story is strong — but price has already reacted aggressively . On the daily chart, price is making higher highs while RSI is failing to confirm, printing a clear bearish divergence . This typically signals momentum exhaustion , not the start of a fresh impulsive leg. If this were a new expansion phase, momentum should be accelerating — it isn’t. Earnings gaps driven by narrative shifts often need time to digest . Instead of straight-line continuation, price usually moves into consolidation or a pullback to test whether buyers can defend higher levels. Chasing price after a vertical move offers poor risk–reward . Patience allows the market to reveal structure, define risk, and present cleaner entries . The AI story may be real — but timing still matters . Don’t buy the excitement. Wait for confirmation. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NASDAQ:MU
by WaveXplorer
Tata Motors PV – Wave B/2 Near Completion, Bounce Zone ActivatedThe ongoing decline appears to be unfolding as a complex corrective structure, with Wave C of the larger Wave B/2 now approaching its typical termination area. Price has reached the 0.786 Fibonacci support at ₹350.35 — a level where deeper corrective phases frequently exhaust themselves. Structurally, the final leg of Wave C shows a clear five-wave micro pattern, and downside momentum has begun to fade. The RSI is printing early bullish divergence, suggesting that sellers are losing strength even as price tests fresh lows. This combination often precedes a relief bounce within the broader framework. As long as the price respects ₹323.45, this corrective interpretation remains valid and a bounce from the current zone is the preferred expectation. A decisive close below the invalidation level would signal that the correction is not yet complete and that a deeper retracement is unfolding. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:TMPVLong
by WaveXplorer
S&P 500: Positioned for a Santa Rally?While tracking the global markets — especially the US indices — one thing stood out clearly. The rally from 6521.92 to 6895.78 unfolded as a clean impulsive move , not a corrective grind. That structural behavior is what made me treat this leg as an impulsive rally (Wave 1/A) rather than just another bounce. Since then, price action has cooled into a Wave 2/B reset , pulling back towards key Fibonacci retracement pocket . Structurally, this looks more like a pause before continuation than the start of a larger breakdown. From a broader sentiment perspective, the backdrop remains supportive. The Fed’s recent rate cut continues to favor risk assets, NVIDIA’s staggering earnings have reinforced confidence in the AI-led growth narrative, and the CBOE Volatility Index remaining subdued suggests markets are not in a fear-driven regime. So… will Santa deliver a rally — or even deliver early? At the moment, the market appears to be positioning itself towards key Fibonacci retracement levels , creating a favorable setup for a potential Santa rally . If the structure holds, Wave 3/C could be the move where Santa shows up with the goods. And if the US index does start unwrapping a rally, history suggests Indian markets rarely stay on the sidelines — definitely something to keep on the radar. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
SP:SPXLong
by WaveXplorer
XAUUSD | 15M | SMC PerspectivePrice has delivered a strong bearish displacement, confirming short-term market structure shift to the downside. The recent impulse left behind a clean bearish order block / supply zone, which is now acting as premium territory. Current price is reacting from discount and may attempt a pullback into the marked supply zone for mitigation. That zone is the key decision area. Plan: Expect a retracement into supply Look for LTF confirmation only inside the zone Rejection from supply should open the path toward the liquidity pool near 4257, which aligns with prior lows and equal lows resting liquidity Bias: Bearish Execution rule: Entry will be taken only if LTF aligns with HTF bearish expectation
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by YCGH_Capital
Reliance Ind (W): Strongly Bullish - Post-Breakout ConsolidationTimeframe: Weekly | Scale: Logarithmic The stock has staged a "V-shaped" recovery from the April 2025 lows and has successfully reclaimed key resistance levels. It is currently consolidating above the breakout zone, which is a sign of strength (time correction instead of price correction). 📈 1. The Structural Context (Bonus Adjusted) > The Cycle: - ATH (July 2024): ₹1,608.80 (Adjusted for 1:1 Bonus). - The Trap (April 2025): The fall to ₹1,114 breached the long-term support (₹1,185), likely trapping bears, before reversing sharply. > The Breakout: The stock recently cleared the ₹1,518 – ₹1,540 resistance zone. > Current Action: For the past few weeks, it has been moving sideways above this zone. This "hovering" behavior indicates that buyers are defending the breakout level, turning previous resistance into support. 🚀 2. The Fundamental Context (The "Why") The recovery is supported by strong fundamentals: - 1:1 Bonus Issue: The recent bonus issue (Oct 2024) has improved liquidity and sentiment, keeping the stock buoyant. - Earnings Growth: Recent quarters have shown robust growth in the Retail and Jio segments, which is fueling the recovery toward the ATH. 📊 3. Volume & Indicators > Volume: Volume has been reducing during this recent sideways phase. - Interpretation: This is a bullish sign . Low volume during a pullback/consolidation means there is no heavy selling pressure (supply is drying up). The market is waiting for the next "ignition" spark. > EMAs: The PCO (Positive Crossover) state across Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes confirms a synchronized uptrend. > RSI: Rising in all timeframes, supporting the momentum. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels The stock is primed for a continuation move. > 🐂 Bullish Targets: - Trigger: A decisive break above the recent consolidation high (approx ₹1,580 ). - Target 1: ₹1,608 (The ATH). This is the immediate magnet. - Target 2: ₹1,725 . If the stock enters "blue sky" discovery, this 7-10% extension is highly achievable. > 🛡️ Support (The Safety Net): - Immediate Support: ₹1,518 – ₹1,540 . The breakout zone must hold. - Stop Loss: The level of ₹1,495 is a perfect structural stop. A close below this would mean the stock has fallen back into the old range (a "failed breakout"). Conclusion This is a Grade A Setup . The "sideways movement above resistance" with low volume is exactly what you want to see before a major leg up. The trend is your friend here. Watch for a high-volume move above ₹1,580 .
NSE:RELIANCELong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas