Gold Trading Psychology: Right Analysis, Wrong Position SizeHello Traders!
Over the years, I’ve noticed something very common in gold trading.
Most traders are not wrong in their analysis. In fact, many of them read gold levels, structure, and direction almost perfectly. The problem usually starts after the entry, not before it.
The trade fails not because the idea was wrong, but because the position size was too big to handle emotionally.
This is one of the most silent killers in gold trading.
Why Gold Punishes Position Size Mistakes
Gold is not a slow-moving instrument. Even during normal market conditions, it can move sharply within minutes. When your position size is larger than what your mind can comfortably handle, every small pullback starts feeling like a threat.
Instead of calmly following your plan, your focus shifts from structure to P&L.
At that moment, psychology takes over logic, and the trade usually ends badly, even if price later moves exactly as you expected.
What Actually Happens Inside the Trader’s Mind
This is something I’ve personally experienced earlier in my journey.
You enter a gold trade with confidence because your analysis is clear.
Price moves slightly against you, which is completely normal.
But because the position size is heavy, your heartbeat increases, your screen gets more attention than it deserves, and suddenly you are no longer reading price, you are reading fear.
Stops get adjusted, exits get rushed, and discipline quietly disappears.
Why Traders Oversize Gold Positions
Many traders oversize gold because it feels familiar and liquid. Some do it because gold has given quick profits in the past, creating overconfidence. Others do it subconsciously to recover previous losses faster.
But gold does not reward emotional urgency.
It only rewards patience, structure, and controlled risk.
How I Corrected This Mistake in My Own Trading
The biggest improvement in my gold trading came when I stopped thinking in terms of lots and started thinking in terms of mental comfort.
I began sizing my trades in a way where even if the stop loss was hit, it would not disturb my mindset or decision-making. Once I did that, something interesting happened, my execution improved automatically.
Same charts.
Same analysis.
Very different results.
The Real Secret Behind Consistency in Gold
Consistency in gold does not come from predicting every move correctly.
It comes from staying calm while the move is developing.
And calmness is impossible if your position size is forcing you to watch every tick.
If you cannot hold the trade without stress, the size is wrong, no matter how good the setup looks.
Rahul’s Tip
Before placing any gold trade, ask yourself honestly:
“Can I hold this position calmly if gold moves against me first?”
If the answer is no, reduce the size. Protecting your mindset is more important than chasing profits.
Conclusion
Many traders lose money in gold despite having good analysis.
The real issue is not strategy, indicator, or entry timing.
Right analysis with wrong position size will still lead to losses.
But average analysis with correct sizing can build long-term consistency.
If this post felt relatable, like it, share your experience in the comments, and follow for more real gold trading psychology.
Community ideas
BTC idea around 24 hours LiqudityThere is a short-term bullish setup for BTC to go back to 94k. Also, the liquidity has shifted to little upward around 88k, suggesting the market is in short-term relief and Macro BullTrap
1. Retest around 88.7K - Probability 70%
2. Retest the local high around 95k - Probability 67%
3. The retest closes below 87k and holds back
SIGNS OF REJECTION!?As we can see NIFTY did take a halt and has formed more like a doji kinda candle in daily time frame which shows its rejection from 26200 supply zone! Hence we will stay negative until and unless this doji candle is broken above and sustained so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
USDCAD Trade Description – Liquidity Sweep + Discount Rejection USDCAD created a clean sell-side liquidity sweep below the previous low near 1.3700, taking out resting liquidity and tapping into a higher-timeframe discount zone.
After the sweep, price showed a sharp rejection wick, signaling absorption of sell orders and a potential reversal. The market then broke structure to the upside on lower timeframes, confirming a shift in momentum.
Price retraced back into the refinement zone / mitigation block, aligning perfectly with:
✔ Discount pricing
✔ Liquidity grab below the equal lows
✔ Rejection from a demand zone
✔ Bullish displacement following the sweep
This offered a high-probability long setup with entry near the mitigation block, stop below the sweep low, and targets toward the premium zone around 1.3780–1.3800.
The trade idea is based on price reverting back to its equilibrium after removing inefficient lows and collecting sell-side liquidity.
NMDC (D): Bullish, Knocking on the DoorTimeframe: Daily | Scale: Linear
The stock is on the verge of a major structural breakout from a 12-month accumulation zone (post-bonus). The move is backed by "Climax Volume" and a strong sectoral tailwind, signaling that smart money is aggressively entering.
🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why")
The surge is not random; it is driven by a sector-wide re-rating:
> Sector Rally: The Nifty Metal index and global mining peers are surging, fueled by rising iron ore prices and expectations of demand recovery in China.
> Volume Significance: The 77.6 Million volume is an "Institutional Stamp." It indicates that big players are positioning for a breakout before it happens.
📈 2. The Chart Structure (The "Lid")
> The Box: The stock has been trapped in a wide consolidation since the 2:1 Bonus Issue in late 2024.
> Resistance: ₹82 – ₹83 . This level (the 52-week high) has capped every rally for the past year.
> Current Action: The stock hit an intraday high of ₹82.3 today, testing the ceiling. Closures near the high suggest buyers are eating up all supply.
📊 3. Technical Indicators
> RSI: Rising in all timeframes (Monthly/Weekly/Daily) confirms momentum is synchronized.
> Moving Averages: The stock is trading above all key EMAs, with a Golden Crossover (Short-term EMAs crossing Long-term EMAs) confirming the trend shift.
🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels
The stock is at the "Make or Break" point.
> 🐂 Bullish Breakout (The Trigger):
- Condition: A decisive Daily Close above ₹83 .
- Target: ₹91 .
> 🛡️ Support (The Safety Net):
- Immediate Support: ₹78 . The previous breakout level.
- Stop Loss: A close below ₹75 would invalidate the bullish view and send the stock back into the "boring" sideways range.
Conclusion
This is a Grade A Setup because of the volume.
> Strategy: The high volume suggests the breakout is likely real. Watch for the ₹83 level to be taken out decisively.
SENSEX : Trading levels and Plan for 24-Dec-2025SENSEX Trading Plan for 24-Dec-2025
(Chart reference: 15-min | Gap criteria considered: 300+ points)
Key Levels to Track (from chart)
Major Upside Resistance: 86,241.83
Last Intraday Resistance: 85,996.00
Upper Range Resistance: 85,690.62
Opening Support / Resistance (Pivot): 85,453.00 – 85,499.60
Last Intraday Support: 85,131.00
Lower Support: 84,918.00
🟢 1. GAP-UP OPENING (300+ Points)
If SENSEX opens well above 85,690, price enters a strong supply zone immediately.
🎓 Educational Explanation:
A 300+ point gap-up generally reflects strong global or overnight cues. However, when price opens near higher-timeframe resistance, smart money often books profits. Sustainable upside usually comes only after acceptance above resistance or a healthy retest, not from straight vertical moves.
Plan of Action:
If price sustains above 85,690 for 15–20 minutes, look for pullback-based long entries.
First upside hurdle is 85,996; watch for volume expansion and candle acceptance.
Acceptance above 85,996 opens the path toward 86,241.83.
Rejection or exhaustion candles near 85,996–86,241 can trigger a pullback toward 85,690.
Option buyers should avoid chasing CE at the open; confirmation is crucial for better R:R.
🟡 2. FLAT OPENING
A flat open near 85,450–85,550 places SENSEX inside the opening pivot range.
🎓 Educational Explanation:
Flat openings signal equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Direction usually emerges after a clear break of the opening range. Trading inside this zone without confirmation often leads to whipsaws and premium decay for option buyers.
Plan of Action:
Sustaining above 85,499.60 keeps bullish bias intact, targeting 85,690 → 85,996.
Failure to hold 85,453 increases downside risk toward 85,131.
Bullish rejection near 85,131 can offer low-risk bounce trades back to 85,453–85,499.
Breakdown and acceptance below 85,131 shifts momentum toward 84,918.
🔴 3. GAP-DOWN OPENING (300+ Points)
If SENSEX opens below 85,131, early sentiment turns clearly weak.
🎓 Educational Explanation:
Large gap-downs are often driven by panic or negative overnight news. Strong demand zones, however, tend to attract short-covering and positional buying. Selling blindly at support increases the risk of sharp reversals.
Plan of Action:
First support to watch is 85,131 — observe price behaviour and candle structure.
Breakdown below 85,131 opens downside toward 84,918.
Strong bullish reversal signals near 84,918 may lead to a sharp intraday bounce.
Any pullback toward 85,453 after breakdown can be used as a selling-on-rise opportunity.
⚙️ Risk Management Tips for Options Traders 🛡️
Avoid trading the first 10–15 minutes on 300+ point gap days.
Never buy options at resistance or sell at support without confirmation.
Use time-based stop-loss (15–20 minutes) if premium does not move.
Risk only 1–2% of total capital per trade.
Prefer ATM options or defined-risk spreads to manage theta decay.
Book partial profits near marked resistance/support levels.
🧾 Summary & Conclusion
Above 85,690: Bulls stay active; targets 85,996 → 86,241.
Between 85,131–85,690: Market remains balanced; patience is key.
Below 85,131: Sellers gain control unless buyers defend 84,918.
Trade price behaviour at levels, not emotions or predictions.
Consistency comes from discipline, confirmation, and risk control.
⚠️ Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any market positions.
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 24-Dec-2025NIFTY Trading Plan for 24-Dec-2025
(Chart reference: 15-min | Gap criteria considered: 100+ points)
Key Levels to Track (from chart)
Opening Resistance: 26,266
Last Intraday Resistance: 26,341
Major Upside Resistance: 26,426
Opening Support / Resistance (Pivot): 26,165
Opening Support (Gap-down reference): 26,098
Last Intraday Support: 26,030
Lower Support: 25,919.85
🟢 1. GAP-UP OPENING (100+ Points)
If NIFTY opens above 26,266, price starts the session near a known supply zone.
🎓 Educational Explanation:
A gap-up above resistance shows bullish sentiment, but supply zones attract profit booking. Professional traders wait for acceptance above resistance or a retest before entering. Chasing price at the open often gives poor risk-reward.
Plan of Action:
If price sustains above 26,266 for 10–15 minutes, look for pullback-based long entries.
First upside target is 26,341 (last intraday resistance).
Acceptance above 26,341 can extend the move toward 26,426.
Rejection or exhaustion near 26,341–26,426 may lead to a pullback toward 26,266.
Option buyers should prefer ATM / ITM Calls only after confirmation, not on opening spikes.
🟡 2. FLAT OPENING
A flat open around 26,140–26,200 keeps NIFTY near the opening pivot (26,165).
🎓 Educational Explanation:
Flat opens indicate balance between buyers and sellers. Direction usually emerges only after the opening range is broken. Trading inside this zone without confirmation often results in whipsaws.
Plan of Action:
Sustaining above 26,165 keeps bullish bias intact, targeting 26,266 → 26,341.
Failure to hold 26,165 increases downside risk toward 26,098.
Bullish rejection near 26,098 offers a low-risk bounce trade back to 26,165.
Breakdown and acceptance below 26,098 shifts momentum toward 26,030.
🔴 3. GAP-DOWN OPENING (100+ Points)
If NIFTY opens below 26,098, early sentiment turns cautious to bearish.
🎓 Educational Explanation:
Gap-down openings are often driven by fear. However, strong demand zones attract short-covering and positional buying. Selling blindly into support increases the probability of getting trapped.
Plan of Action:
First support to watch is 26,030 — observe candle structure and volume.
Breakdown below 26,030 opens the downside toward 25,919.85.
Strong bullish reversal signals near 25,919.85 may lead to a sharp intraday bounce.
Any pullback toward 26,098 after a breakdown can be used as a selling-on-rise opportunity.
⚙️ Risk Management Tips for Options Traders 🛡️
Avoid trading in the first 5–10 minutes during gap openings.
Do not buy options at resistance or sell at support without confirmation.
Use time-based stop-loss (15–20 minutes) if premium doesn’t move.
Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade.
Prefer ATM options or defined-risk spreads to control theta decay.
Book partial profits near key resistance/support levels.
🧾 Summary & Conclusion
Above 26,266: Bulls remain active; targets 26,341 → 26,426.
Between 26,098–26,266: Market remains balanced; patience is essential.
Below 26,098: Sellers gain control unless buyers defend 26,030 / 25,919.85.
Focus on price behaviour at predefined levels, not prediction.
Consistency comes from discipline, confirmation, and risk control.
⚠️ Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trades.
ITC – Technical SetupITC is showing a strong technical structure near the ₹400–₹395 zone, which is acting as a solid support area on the charts. The stock has tested this zone multiple times and has managed to hold, indicating strong demand at lower levels.
Over the last several sessions, ITC was trading in a tight consolidation range, reflecting accumulation. Today’s close above this multi-day consolidation is a positive sign and suggests a potential breakout, with momentum now shifting in favor of the bulls.
The price action indicates that buyers are gaining control, and as long as ITC sustains above the breakout level and the support zone remains intact, the setup looks favorable for an upside move.
Trade Plan:
Buy: As close as 395
Stop Loss: ₹395
Target: ₹425
A close below ₹395 would weaken the structure, so strict stop-loss discipline is advised.
Trade with proper risk management.
GBP/USD - Shorts - 15 Min Once the 4H timeframe Order Block (OB) is identified and a buy-side liquidity sweep occurs, followed by a clear Change of Character (CHoCH), we can start looking for short-selling opportunities. After confirming the CHoCH, we shift to the 15-minute timeframe and patiently wait for price to retrace into the 15M Order Block. Entries are taken from this zone, with the stop-loss placed above the Order Block and targets set at the next sell-side liquidity level.
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd. (IRFC)Time cycle trading is a very unique and powerful approach because it focuses on "time" rather than "price." It is based on the belief that market history repeats itself and trends reappear after certain intervals.
Its biggest advantage is that it can alert you before a trend even begins.
Most indicators (such as RSI or MACD) tell you whether the price will go up or down. But time cycles tell you when a change is likely to occur. Indicators are 'lagging' (they give signals after the price has already moved). Time cycles are 'leading'. They help you determine the dates of upcoming turning points (highs and lows) in advance.
When you combine Time Cycles with Price Action, your "Stop Loss" becomes smaller. You can try to enter very close to the bottom or top because you know that the cycle is about to end.
The most tension in the market arises when we don't know when a sideways market will end. A time cycle trader knows that the "time" is not yet complete, so they can wait patiently.
Selecting the right stocks is the most important thing. Time Cycle trading doesn't mean you should trade blindly. Its effectiveness comes into play only when:
Time + Price: When the cycle time is complete and the price is also at a support/resistance level.
Confirmation: Confirmation from a candlestick pattern is essential.
ASTER Seeing early signs of a bullish reversal - ASTER is compressing into a make or break zone after a steep selloff and this is where reversals usually start forming.If this wedge resolves upward, the next leg could quickly reclaim major levels.
1. Pattern Overview
We’re trading inside a falling wedge (tightening lower highs + lower lows).
That structure often signals seller exhaustion: bears keep pushing, but each push gets weaker as liquidity dries up. When price breaks the wedge, it’s usually because buyers finally absorb the remaining supply, triggering a squeeze back into prior resistance.
2. Key Levels
Support
- 0.6800 (current pivot) — price is trying to base here; holding this keeps the “reversal attempt” alive
- 0.6540 (invalidation / sweep zone) — lose this and the market is telling you demand failed at the lows
Resistance
- 0.7269 (first decision level) — this is the near-term ceiling; a close above shifts momentum bullish
- 1.0014 (major reclaim level) — prior structure level; if reclaimed, it often flips into support and accelerates continuation
3. Market Outlook
Bias leans cautiously bullish while price holds above 0.6540 and keeps compressing inside the wedge.
Momentum shifts cleanly bullish on a daily close above 0.7269 + successful retest. That’s typically where institutions get involved not on the first spike, but on the confirmation + pullback, when risk is defined.
4. Trade Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Entry trigger: Daily close above 0.7269 (or wedge breakout) + retest holding
First target: 1.0014
Second target: 1.3985
Why: Breakout from compression often leads to a fast move back into prior supply zones as shorts unwind and buyers step in.
🔻 Bearish Scenario
Breakdown trigger: Daily close below 0.6540
Target: 0.55 → 0.50 demand zone
Why: Losing the sweep/invalidation level usually means the “base” failed and liquidity below gets targeted next.
- Final Note
Don’t chase the first breakout candle wait for the daily close + retest to keep risk tight.
If you want more clean, level-based breakdowns like this, follow me for daily chart setups.
Decoding Weekly Structure: Support, Resistance & Channel DynamicSummary -
This multi-window TradingView chart showcases a weekly time frame on the left, featuring a white counter line, a dotted hidden resistance line, and a monthly support/resistance zone highlighted in white on the right. Additionally, a pink parallel channel marks head and resistance zones, offering a visual guide to price structure without forecasting future movement. Each element helps identify historical areas where price has shown significant reactions.
Terms and Language explained -
Counter Line (White): A horizontal line used to mark a specific price level, often for tracking key reference points or psychological levels.
Hidden Resistance (Dotted Line): A resistance line that is not immediately obvious but is derived from less visible price action or volume analysis. It helps identify potential areas where price may struggle to move higher.
Monthly Support/Resistance Zone: A broader area on the chart where price has historically found support (demand) or resistance (supply) over the monthly time frame. These zones are often marked for their significance in longer-term analysis
Parallel Channel: A set of parallel lines drawn to connect consecutive highs and lows, forming a channel that helps visualize the current price trend and boundaries.
Disclaimer
The information presented in this chart is for educational purposes only. No part of this post constitutes financial advice, a recommendation, or a forecast of future price movement. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
APOLLOTYRE : adjusting its base.📘 APOLLOTYRE – Technical Analysis & Trading Plan
(Chart timeframe: Daily | Structure & Wave-based analysis)
🔍 Market Structure Overview
APOLLOTYRE has already signaled a Change of Character (CHoCH) after breaking its prior bearish structure, confirming a trend transition from distribution to accumulation. Since then, price has respected higher lows and moved within a rising structure.
Currently, price is correcting within a healthy pullback phase, aligning with a Wave 4 retracement, while the broader trend remains bullish.
📐 Key Technical Zones (From Chart)
• Wave 4 Completion / Demand Zone: 492 – 510
• Invalidation Level / SL: 488.55 (Day close below)
• First Target Zone: 546 – 553
• Second Target: 570
📊 Technical Interpretation
The ongoing decline appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting trend continuation bias.
Price is consolidating above the rising trendline, indicating structural strength.
The 492–510 zone overlaps with prior demand and trendline support, making it a high-probability accumulation area.
Holding above 488.55 keeps the bullish structure intact.
A sustained move above recent swing highs confirms Wave 5 activation.
🎯 Prediction / Probable Scenario
If price holds above 492–510, APOLLOTYRE is likely to resume its upward trajectory.
Initial expansion expected toward 546–553, where partial profit booking is advisable.
Acceptance above the first target zone may extend the rally toward 570.
Failure to hold 488.55 would invalidate the bullish count and open room for deeper correction.
🟢 Buying Strategy (Swing / Positional)
Buying Zone: 492 – 510 (on confirmation / bullish price action)
Stop Loss: Day close below 488.55
Target 1: 546 – 553
Target 2: 570
Maintain partial profit booking at Target 1 and trail SL for positional continuation.
This setup offers a favourable risk–reward structure, suitable for capturing a potential impulsive Wave 5 move.
🎓 Educational Notes for Traders
CHoCH (Change of Character) signals early trend reversal before traditional indicators.
Wave 4 corrections are typically sideways or overlapping and should not break key demand zones.
Strong trends correct in price and time, not always deeply in price.
The best trades emerge when structure, trendline, and demand zones align.
Always wait for price confirmation, not prediction.
🧠 Risk Management Reminder
• Avoid over-leveraging during corrective phases
• Respect day-close based stop losses
• Risk only 1–2% capital per trade
• Partial booking improves psychological discipline
⚠️ Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Price action understanding that will change the way you tradeI make educational content videos for swing trading . In this video I have used concepts like Trendlines, Counter trendlines, zones, Support and Resistance, Market fall, Targets and Exit plan for any trade setup and most importantly use of lines with multi time frame analysis .
Charts used are 3 months or older
BTC - Bearish Senario BTC
$85,000 - $86,000 The immediate "line in the sand." BTC is currently hovering near here; a clean break below this could accelerate the slide.
$76,000------A major Fibonacci retracement and high-volume node. Many analysts see this as the "first real stop" if the current range fails.
$67,000 - $69,000-----Your target range. This is historically significant as the peak of the 2021 bull cycle. Old resistance often turns into "brick wall" support.
$53,000 - $56,000 The "worst-case" capitulation zone cited by analysts (like Fundstrat) if a broader macro downturn occurs in early 2026.
XAGUSD (Silver): Impulsive Structure IntactXAGUSD (Silver): Impulsive Structure Intact, Consolidation Before Continuation
Silver continues to trade within a well-defined rising channel on the 3H timeframe, maintaining a clear bullish structure from the November lows. Despite short-term fluctuations, the broader price action remains orderly and directional, showing no signs of structural breakdown.
Elliott Wave Structure
From the base, silver has developed a clean impulsive sequence:
Wave (1): Initial breakout from the base
Wave (2): Shallow pullback, holding above key support — a strength signal
Wave (3): Strong expansion leg, supported by momentum
Wave (4): Currently unfolding as a shallow, time-based consolidation
Wave (5): Projected higher toward the upper channel and Fibonacci extension zone
The preferred count assumes Wave (3) is complete and Wave (4) is in progress. Importantly, this correction is unfolding more through time than price, which is typical of strong trends.
An alternate count is also considered, where the current structure could still be part of an extended Wave (3), followed by a slightly deeper Wave (4). However, this alternate scenario does not negate the bullish structure — it only allows for extended consolidation before continuation.
Channel & Price Structure
Price continues to respect a multi-parallel rising channel:
Wave (2) and Wave (4) align well with the lower channel
Wave (3) reacts near the upper boundary
Current price remains comfortably within the channel
This behavior supports the view that silver is consolidating within trend rather than transitioning into a reversal phase.
Momentum (RSI) Perspective
RSI remains in a bullish regime, holding above the mid-zone and cooling gradually after the prior expansion. There is no meaningful bearish divergence against price, suggesting that momentum is being reset rather than exhausted.
This momentum behavior aligns better with a Wave (4) consolidation than with a completed market top.
Key Conditions to Watch
The bullish structure remains valid as long as:
Price stays within the rising channel
Key support near 62.85 is respected
No overlap occurs into Wave (1) territory
Only a decisive break below channel support, combined with a momentum regime shift, would force a reassessment.
Conclusion
Silver is not showing signs of distribution or trend failure. Both the primary and alternate Elliott counts point toward continuation higher once the current consolidation phase completes. Until structure is proven otherwise, intraday volatility should be treated as noise rather than signal.
Trend remains constructive. Structure remains the guide.
(Educational analysis only. Not a trading recommendation.)
NSDL cmp 1081.40 by Daily Chart viewNSDL cmp 1081.40 by Daily Chart view
- Support Zone 1040 to 1085 Price Band
- Resistance Zone 1135 to 1185 Price Band
- Bullish Triple Bottom at 1037 to 1049 Price Band
- Volumes flattish and under average traded quantity
- Price trending within Support Zone thru December 2025
- Falling Resistance Trendline Breakout seems taking process
UNITED STATES STEEL AND IRON INDEXUs steel index is giving an indication and also showing its strength in its price so in comming days like silver , copper , zinc , aluminium and vastly avilable hard metal are showing ralley same so also started happening here . when lastly in 2019-2021 this index has shown positive up side then stocks in indian market like Tata steel , JSW steel , SAIL had shown great price up trend as because ther inventory relization had be increased to we have to track iron ore price as they have increased 2019-2021 time so integrated steel company has hugely benifited . SO as breakout happen in this commodity some great news will come here so stay cautious
Gold (XAUUSD): RSI Cooling Is Not WeaknessGold’s recent price action may appear volatile on lower timeframes, but structurally the market is behaving exactly as a healthy trend should. The current pause is not a sign of exhaustion — it is a necessary reset within a larger impulsive advance.
The Bigger Picture: Trend Comes First
From the November lows, gold has developed a clear impulsive structure. The advance is directional, non-overlapping, and supported by momentum — all characteristics of a genuine trend rather than a corrective bounce.
Price continues to respect a rising parallel channel drawn from the Wave (2) low, with Wave (3) expanding cleanly toward the upper boundary. This channel behavior alone tells us one thing clearly: the primary trend remains intact.
Elliott Wave Context: Where Are We Now?
The advance from November fits well into a higher-degree impulsive sequence:
Wave (1): Initial breakout from the base
Wave (2): Shallow, sideways correction — a strength signal
Wave (3): Strong expansion leg with momentum confirmation
Wave (4): Currently in progress as a consolidation
Wave (5): Yet to unfold
What matters most is this: Wave (4) is unfolding through time, not through aggressive price damage. That distinction separates healthy trends from failing ones.
RSI Cooling: A Bullish Reset, Not a Warning
RSI reached overbought conditions during the Wave (3) expansion — exactly what strong trends are expected to do. Since then, RSI has begun to cool off, but notably:
It remains above the 50–55 zone
There is no meaningful bearish divergence
Momentum is resetting without price breakdown
This is classic Wave (4) behavior. Strong markets pause to absorb gains; they do not collapse immediately after expansion.
RSI cooling in this context is preparation, not deterioration.
Fibonacci & Structure Alignment
The current consolidation remains well within the ideal retracement zone for a Wave (4), aligning with shallow Fibonacci levels and the channel structure. Price has not violated prior impulse highs, and no overlap is present — both essential conditions for maintaining bullish integrity.
As long as price remains within the channel and above key structural supports, the broader bullish thesis remains valid.
What Would Actually Change the View?
This analysis does not change because of intraday volatility or short-term pullbacks. The structure would only come into question if:
Price breaks decisively below the rising channel
Wave (1) territory is violated
RSI shifts into a sustained bearish regime below 45
None of these conditions are currently in play.
Verdict:
➡️ Trend remains UP.
➡️ Buy-on-dips / hold positions as long as structure holds.
➡️ Avoid reacting to intraday noise.
Invalidation:
Only a decisive break below channel support changes the view.
Final Thought
Markets do not reverse because momentum cools. They reverse when structure breaks.
At present, gold is not breaking structure — it is consolidating within it. Until proven otherwise, this remains a higher-degree bullish trend experiencing a normal, healthy pause.
Ignore the noise. Respect the structure.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
For educational & analysis purposes only. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Trade with proper risk management.
SUNDARMFIN – Breakout Retest Setup Toward Major TrendlineSUNDARMFIN has broken out of the falling wedge and is retesting the breakout zone successfully.
The structure drawn shows a bullish continuation setup:
Falling wedge breakout ✔️
Price holding above the retest zone ✔️
Momentum shifting higher ✔️
The upside projection points toward the major resistance trendline, with a measured target of ~6.5% from the breakout point.
Your drawing also highlights a profit-taking zone once price reaches the trendline resistance.
Trade Logic from the drawing:
Breakout → Retest → Continuation toward higher resistance
Possible reaction down after reaching the target line.
My Key View:
As long as price stays above the retest level,
bulls are in control toward the upper trendline.
UNOMINDA – Compression Near Trendline (Decision Zone Ahead)UNOMINDA is just moving inside a tight structure right now. Price is getting pushed down from the top trendline, but at the same time buyers are not letting it fall much either. Every dip is getting bought a little higher.
That tells me neither side is in full control yet. This kind of slow, tight movement usually happens before a bigger move, but there’s no rush to guess the direction.
For now, it’s more about watching how price behaves near the trendlines. Once price starts holding clearly above or below this structure, the picture will become clearer.






















