XAUUSD (H4) – Monday StrategyGeopolitical shock risk, gold may spike | Trade liquidity and reaction zones only
Quick summary
News around Trump’s claim that Maduro has been detained, plus Venezuela’s response (they don’t know his and his wife’s whereabouts and are demanding proof of life), raises geopolitical uncertainty sharply. For gold, that’s a classic catalyst for a gap/spike at Monday open.
So my rule for Monday: no FOMO, only trade liquidity zones and confirmed reactions on the chart.
1) Macro context: Why gold can surge on Monday
Rising geopolitical tension often drives flows into safe-haven assets like gold.
When facts are unclear and tensions escalate, the market can open with:
✅ sharp spikes, ✅ liquidity sweeps, ✅ wider spreads.
➡️ Best approach: wait for price to hit levels, then trade the reaction — not the headline.
2) Technical view (H4 – based on your chart)
Gold is currently moving inside a larger structure after a heavy move, and your chart highlights the key zones clearly:
Key zones
Sell test support 4450 (pullback area where price may get sold)
Liquidity 4330 (major liquidity magnet)
OB 4309 (order block / short-term reaction zone)
Support 4277 (intermediate support)
Buy zone 4203–4206 (deep support / swing buy area)
3) Monday trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level)
Scenario A (priority): Spike up → SELL around 4450
✅ If gold pumps on the headline at the open:
Sell around 4450 (sell-test zone)
SL: above the most recent swing high (refine on lower TF)
TP1: 4330
TP2: 4309
TP3: 4277
Logic: Headline-driven opens often spike to sweep buy-side liquidity first, then rotate back into value/liquidity.
Scenario B: Sweep down → BUY at liquidity zones
✅ If price gets pulled down first:
Buy around 4330 (Liquidity)
Buy confirmation at 4309 (OB)
SL (guide): below 4300
TP: 4380 → 4450 (scale out)
Logic: 4330 is a major liquidity magnet and often produces a sharp reaction bounce.
Scenario C (worst-case dump): BUY the deep support 4203–4206
✅ If volatility is extreme and price flushes:
Buy: 4203 – 4206
SL: 4195
TP: 4277 → 4330
Logic: This is a deep swing-buy area if the market does a hard liquidity reset.
4) Key notes for a headline-driven Monday open
Avoid trading the first 5–10 minutes if spreads widen.
Only enter once price hits the level and shows a clear reaction (rejection / engulf / MSS on M15).
Reduce size — geopolitical opens can whip hard.
Do you think Monday’s move sweeps up into 4450 first, or drops straight into 4330 liquidity?
