StevenTrading – Gold confirms an upward trend across multiple...StevenTrading – Gold confirms an upward trend across multiple timeframes
Hello everyone, StevenTrading is back with the latest insights on the gold market.
While USD speculators continue to bet on the decline of the greenback – even challenging the Federal Reserve's (Fed) “hawkish” stance – gold is seizing this period to strengthen its position.
Although Chairman Powell still signals maintaining a tight policy, most strategists believe that the USD will remain weak in November, creating a favourable environment for the precious metal's rise.
📰 Fundamental Analysis – Cash Flow Perspective
Cash flow is shifting from USD-denominated assets to safe-haven assets, with gold being the top choice.
Financial instability and divisions within the Fed keep inflation expectations high, supporting gold's upward trend in the medium term.
📊 Technical Analysis – Structure Break & Trend Confirmation
On the technical chart, gold has broken the downtrend line on the H4 timeframe and surged past the strong resistance zone around 3990–4000, confirming an extended upward trend across multiple timeframes.
Currently, the price is hesitating around the trendline – a sign of the market attracting liquidity before continuing to rise.
The medium-term price target is aimed at the 418x zone, where the confluence between FVG and major resistance occurs.
However, the 4080 zone is a critical area to closely observe price reactions, especially if short-term distribution signals appear.
🎯 Trading Scenario (Action Plan)
🟢 BUY Scenario – Buy in line with the upward trend:
Logic: The price has confirmed a resistance break and retested the breakout zone, presenting an opportunity for trend-following buy orders.
Entry: Buy 4000
SL: 3990
TP: 4035 – 4050 – 4080 – OPEN
🔴 SELL Scenario – Only for short-term reactions (Scalping):
If the price reacts strongly at the 4080 zone, consider a short sell with short-term targets within the liquidity zone – prioritise quick exits, do not hold positions overnight.
📌 Steven's Notes
The main trend remains upward in the medium term, however, monitor price reactions on smaller timeframes (M15–M30) to optimise entry points.
Community ideas
GOLD RANGE PLAY — CLEAN SUPPLY & DEMAND REACTIONS AHEAD🧭 DAILY TRADING PLAN — GOLD (XAU/USD)
Date: Nov 3, 2025
Main Timeframe: M30 – H1
Strategy: SMC + Trendline Structure + Supply/Demand Zones
🌐 MARKET CONTEXT
Gold continues to consolidate inside a symmetrical triangle, forming clear supply and demand zones within a tightening range.
Current structure shows a bearish bias below 4039 but still holding a bullish base above 3970–3980.
Both buyers and sellers have clear liquidity zones to play from — ideal for short-term reactions and fade setups.
📈 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
🔹 BUY SCENARIO 1 (Main Setup)
BUY 3980 – 3978
→ SL: 3973 (6 pips)
→ TP1: 4010 | TP2: 4038
Structure support + local BOS. Wait for bullish rejection or engulfing confirmation.
R:R ≈ 5–9 depending on TP target.
🔹 BUY SCENARIO 2 (Aggressive Entry)
BUY 3970 – 3968
→ SL: 3963
→ TP1: 4000 | TP2: 4038
Deep retest into lower trendline + demand imbalance zone.
Only valid if market respects structure and holds above 3960.
🔸 SELL SCENARIO 1
SELL 4027 – 4029
→ SL: 4034
→ TP1: 4000 | TP2: 3970
Short from supply zone with bearish CHoCH confirmation on lower timeframe.
Rejection at this level can target liquidity below 3980.
🔸 SELL SCENARIO 2 (Higher Supply)
SELL 4037 – 4039
→ SL: 4044
→ TP1: 4010 | TP2: 3970
This is the weak high area — potential sweep zone before reversal.
Look for liquidity grab + bearish candle confirmation before entry.
🧩 STRUCTURE RECAP
Bias: Range-bound → Bearish within triangle
BOS / CHoCH: Confirmed on M30 around 4029 zone
Weak High: 4039
Strong Support: 3970–3980
Major Resistance: 4045–4128
⚙️ TRADE MANAGEMENT
Risk per setup ≤ 1–2%
Move SL → BE after TP1
Avoid entries during high-impact news
Wait for confirmation (no blind limits)
🧠 SUMMARY
Gold is ranging within a compressed structure, where shorts from supply and buys from demand both align with liquidity targets.
The cleanest play remains:
→ Buy near 3978 / Sell near 4038, trade between zones until a breakout occurs.
If price breaks and holds above 4045, expect bullish continuation to 4128.
If breaks below 3960, bearish expansion likely resumes toward 3920.
Ramco rallying but be cautious Ramco systems is rallying and close to breakout. But this breakout will be happening after 4 years. Possibility is that the stock may have lost its sheen by the time it gives breakout. A warning to retail investors to be cautious while in investing. Personally, I would have kept out.
Yes it has given positive quarterly results but that's not enough.
RBL Bank -Multi-Year #Breakout After 4 Years of ConsolidationRBLBANK has broken out of a multi-year resistance zone after a long accumulation phase since 2020.
This type of structure often leads to sustained upside momentum if the #breakout holds.
📌 Breakout Zone: ₹280 – ₹300
📌 Current Price: ~₹327
📌 Structure: Higher Highs & Higher Lows
📌 Volume: Strong accumulation visible
📌 Trend: Strong uptrend above long-term trendline & EMAs
Key Levels
Immediate Resistances ₹360
₹425 (Major long-term level)
Supports
₹300 – breakout retest zone
₹260 (major swing support)
As long as price stays above ₹300, bulls remain in control 🐂🔥
Technical Highlights
✅ 4-year consolidation breakout
✅ Major downtrend line broken
✅ Strong volume confirmation
✅ Clean price action + trend continuation
View
Bias remains bullish as long as price holds above the breakout zone.
Breakout + retest setups may offer opportunities in trending markets.
Not investment advice — for educational chart analysis only. Always do your own research.
Mahindra & Mahindra's Inverse Head & Shoulders BreakoutMahindra & Mahindra's Inverse Head & Shoulders Breakout Signals Bullish Momentum with RSI Above 70
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (M&M), currently trading around ₹3,648, is exhibiting a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern on its hourly chart—a bullish reversal setup that often precedes upward price movement. Coupled with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading above 70, the stock is showing signs of strong momentum, though traders must tread with technical precision.
With the inverse head and shoulders pattern completing and RSI above 70, Mahindra & Mahindra is technically poised for a bullish move. Traders should monitor price action closely, use disciplined stop-losses, and avoid over-leveraging. This setup favors momentum traders and short-term swing positions, especially if volume confirms the breakout.
Bajaj Consumer Care - Multi Year #BreakoutBAJAJCONSUMER has finally given a strong multi-year breakout after consolidating for almost 4+ years ✅
📌 Breakout Zone: ₹285 – ₹295
📌 Current Price: ~₹307
📌 Volume: Increasing – confirms accumulation
📌 Trend: Higher Highs & Higher Lows structure intact
📌 EMA Support: Riding above EMA – strong momentum
This kind of long-term range breakout often leads to multi-month / multi-year uptrends if sustained 🏆
Next Major Zones / Targets
₹330
₹360
₹400+ (Long-term)
Support Levels
₹288 – breakout retest zone
₹260 (strong major support)
As long as price stays above ₹288, bulls in full control 🐂💪
📈 Positioning: Long bias (This is for educational analysis only, not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Chart Setup
✅ Multi-Year Trendline Break
✅ Price above 200 EMA & 50 EMA
✅ Strong volume breakout
✅ Bullish price action + momentum
Risk Management
Always trail stop-loss & manage position size.
Market me survive karna hi jeet hai✨
Gold Holds 3,980$ as Bulls Eye Recovery Toward 4,020$🔍 Market Context
Gold steadies near the 3,980$ mark as traders weigh shifting expectations on US interest rates.
The latest ADP employment report showed a modest increase of 42,000 jobs — easing fears of an accelerated slowdown but reinforcing the broader cooling trend in the labor market.
While the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts have supported bullion throughout the year, the prolonged US government shutdown now clouds macro visibility, delaying key economic data.
Despite mixed sentiment, gold remains one of 2025’s strongest-performing assets, up over 50% year-to-date, driven by ETF inflows and central bank demand.
📊 Technical Outlook (H1–H4)
Gold has staged a notable rebound from the 3,947$–3,969$ demand zone, reclaiming short-term structure and approaching the 3,990$–4,000$ liquidity pocket.
This area aligns with the 0.618 Fib retracement and descending trendline resistance — making it the next decision point for intraday traders.
Key Technical Zones:
• 💎 Support: 3,947$ – 3,969$ (Liquidity Base / Re-accumulation)
• 🎯 Resistance: 3,992$ – 4,024$ (Fibo 0.618 + Trendline Confluence)
• ⚙️ Extended Bull Target: 4,028$ – 4,033$ (1.272–1.618 Fibo Expansion)
• ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → shifts bias toward 3,905$ liquidity pool.
🎯 MMFLOW View
Smart money continues to accumulate within the re-accumulation pocket near 3,950$, hinting at latent bullish intent.
If price holds above 3,970$ after today’s consolidation, an extension toward 4,020$–4,033$ remains highly probable.
However, failure to maintain intraday demand could invite another liquidity sweep before a larger push higher.
⚜️ MMFLOW Insight:
“Liquidity reveals intention — structure only confirms it.”
Bank Nifty – Support & Breakout Levels📈 Bank Nifty – Daily Timeframe Analysis
The price structure on the daily chart shows a healthy continuation of the upward momentum , maintaining strength above the key support zone.
Buyers are still in control, but the market has now entered a phase of sideways consolidation — signaling preparation for the next directional move.
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📊 Key Observations
1️⃣ Upward Momentum Continues — Price remains above the support line, showing sustained bullish control and healthy trend structure.
2️⃣ Consolidation Range — Price is currently consolidating between 58577.50 and 57482.05 , reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers.
3️⃣ Old Resistance → New Support — The previous resistance zone is now acting as a strong support base, adding confirmation to the bullish sentiment.
4️⃣ Breakout Scenarios —
A break above the consolidation high at 58,577.50 could ignite the next upward leg and continue the prevailing uptrend.
• A break below the support zone at 57,482.05 may shift momentum to the downside, opening the possibility of a move toward the previous support area.
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✅ Summary
• Trend bias remains bullish as long as price holds above the key support line.
• Consolidation signals short-term indecision before the next major move.
• A confirmed breakout candle above 58,577.50 may open the path for further upside.
• Conversely, a breakdown below 57,482.05may invite short-term selling pressure toward the old support region.
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
⚠️ Disclaimer:
📘 For educational purposes only.
🙅 Not SEBI registered.
❌ Not a buy/sell recommendation.
🧠 Purely a learning resource.
📊 Not Financial Advice.
Gold Testing Resistance, Compression Structure Set to Break📊 Market Structure
On the H1 chart, gold is forming a compression structure between the Support 3,944 USD and Resistance 3,989 USD zones.
The recent lows create a series of Higher Lows along the rising trendline – indicating buyers are quietly absorbing supply around the lower region.
However, the 3,989 USD zone remains the central resistance axis , converging with the descending trendline formed from the previous peak (4,028 USD). Each time the price hits this zone, a short-term profit-taking reaction occurs, showing strong defense from sellers.
Below the support zone, the Premium Zone 3,944 USD continues to be the main pivot point – where the price has previously surged strongly in the last two sessions.
If this zone is breached, the short-term bullish structure will be invalidated, opening up the possibility of returning to the Liquidity Zone around 3,921 – 3,892 USD .
Conversely, if the price closes above 3,989 USD , the market will confirm a Bullish Break of Structure (BoS), triggering an extended target towards 4,028 – 4,052 USD .
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Resistance Zone 1: 3,989 USD → main resistance, strong reaction zone.
• Resistance Zone 2: 4,028 – 4,052 USD → upper liquidity target zone.
• Support Zone: 3,944 USD → dynamic support, converging with the rising trendline.
• Liquidity Zone: 3,921 – 3,892 USD → the last zone protecting the bullish structure.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Scenario – Await Confirmed Breakout:
If the price closes above 3,989 USD and successfully retests:
• Entry: 3,985 – 3,995
• SL: 3,965
• TP1: 4,015
• TP2: 4,028
• TP3: 4,052
2️⃣ SELL Scenario – React at Resistance:
If a reversal candlestick pattern appears at 3,989 USD:
• Entry: 3,985 – 3,990
• SL: 4,000
• TP1: 3,965
• TP2: 3,950
• TP3: 3,944
🧠 Vincent’s View
Gold is in a “compression before breakout” phase, with liquidity concentrated around the 3,989 USD zone.
If this zone is broken, the price could quickly surge to the supply area above 4,028 – 4,052 USD.
If it fails, a price rejection here could pull gold back to the rising trendline at 3,950 USD.
“Compression breeds expansion — let price show which side holds conviction.” ⚜️
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 06/11/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
Swing Buy Plan Above 749 (Resistance Breakout) HDFCLIFEChart Structures:
Double Bottom in Demand Zone (near 729–736) provides a strong support base and bullish reversal signal.
Neck Line (Supply/Resistance at 749): Watch for high volume and price action to trigger the trade.
Trade Entry:
Buy only above 749—confirm a breakout with a strong bullish candle.
Targets:
First Target: 764.15 (Initial Resistance for breakout, T1)
Second Target: 780.85 (Primary Swing Target, T2)
Stoploss:
729 (Below demand zone and recent swing low)
Support Zone:
736.15 (Can be used for partial profit booking for conservative trades)
Action Points for Traders
Wait for Breakout: Don't enter until price closes above 749 with confirmation (volume, bullish candle).
Monitor Retest: If price moves above 749, watch for a retest and hold above this level before increasing position.
Risk Management: Use 729 as stoploss to guard against false breakouts.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
Bulls coming in on the Nifty50 indexHello,
Since June 27th, 2025, the Nifty 50 index has been undergoing a correction phase, reflecting a temporary pause in the market's strong upward trend. Recent market data, however, indicates that this corrective phase is likely behind us, paving the way for renewed bullish momentum. This development offers a timely opportunity for investors to consider entering the market.
The correction served as a healthy consolidation, allowing for the market to digest previous gains and set a firmer foundation for the next upward move. The index has stabilized at attractive levels, making the current price point an excellent entry for risk-averse investors seeking upside potential with a favorable risk-reward balance.
Our technical analysis suggests that the Nifty 50 is poised to advance toward and potentially exceed the 27,000 mark in the near term.
Good luck & happy investing
Buy/Hold/Sell research report for HDFC Bank LimitedHDFC Bank is a fundamentally strong, fairly valued large-cap private sector bank. Technical breakout and upside to intrinsic value support a “Buy” for medium-term investors; passive holders can remain invested, while short-term traders should consider booking profits above ₹1,080. Target price: ₹1,080–₹1,120 in 3–6 months, long-term fair value ₹1,200..
HDFC Bank remains a leading performer with strong metrics, though ICICI Bank shows slightly better ROE and lower P/E.
Technical Analysis
Trend & Momentum: HDFC Bank has gained 3.7% over one month and 18.1% over one year, outperforming most private sector peers. The last quarter saw a price momentum shift upward, supported by strong volume (20-day average: ~21.6 million shares).
Support & Resistance: The stock currently trades at ₹1,002.55, with a 52-week high of ₹1,018.85 and a low of ₹812.15. Recent breakout above ₹995 level has triggered fresh buying, and seasonally, October is positive for HDFC Bank (11 out of 17 years ended higher; average October gain: 1.67%).
Volume & Liquidity: Large cap stock with healthy liquidity; delivery averages at 63.2%, indicating strong investor participation.
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation: P/E ratio at 21.82 and P/B at 2.97 are close to sector averages, indicating HDFC Bank is currently fairly valued (discount of 16% to intrinsic value).
Intrinsic Value: Median modeled intrinsic value is ₹1,199.82; current price offers a potential 20%+ upside to fair value.
Profitability: Robust Return on Equity (ROE) at 13.56%, year-on-year profit after tax growth of 9.32%, and NIM (Net Interest Margin) at 3.47%.
Balance Sheet Strength: Market Cap above ₹1.54 lakh crore; capital adequacy at 19.5% (well above regulatory requirements).
Dividend Yield: Attractive at 2.19%, contributing to total shareholder returns.
Governance: No pledged promoter shares; top-tier corporate governance.
Buy, Hold, Sell Assessment
Buy: Suitable for investors seeking exposure to stable, large private banks with high earnings quality. The breakout above ₹995 and momentum setup positions HDFC Bank well for a medium-term move toward intrinsic value.
Hold: Current holders can stay invested, benefiting from regular dividends, resilient earnings, and the expectation of sectoral re-rating.
Sell: For trading-only investors, if the price nears ₹1,050–₹1,080 in the coming months or if support at ₹985 fails, consider profit-booking or applying stop-loss management.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical AnalysisGold (XAUUSD)🟡
Timeframe: 1H
Current Price: $3,989
Market Overview:
Gold prices are consolidating near the $3,985–$3,990 zone after recovering from recent lows. The metal maintains bullish momentum supported by strong price action above short-term moving averages, with buyers regaining control amid stable US Dollar movement.
Indicator Analysis:
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
The price is currently trading above the 21-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating a short-term bullish bias.
As long as Gold holds above the 21-EMA ($3,982), momentum remains favorable for buyers.
2. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price):
Price is above VWAP, suggesting active buying pressure and potential continuation toward the next resistance zones.
The VWAP band support sits around $3,977, acting as a key intraday cushion.
3. Bollinger/VWAP Bands:
Price is testing the upper VWAP band, showing possible short-term resistance but overall strength in the trend.
Any pullback toward mid-band levels ($3,975–$3,980) could attract new buying interest.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $4,000 / $4,015
Major Resistance: $4,035 / $4,050
Immediate Support: $3,980 / $3,972
Major Support: $3,965 / $3,950
Technical Bias:
Bullish above: $3,980
Neutral zone: $3,970–$3,980
Bearish below: $3,965
Outlook:
Gold remains in a short-term uptrend, with momentum favoring further upside as long as it holds above $3,980. A clean breakout above $4,000 could open room toward $4,015–$4,035. Conversely, a drop below $3,970 would signal weakening momentum, potentially retesting the $3,950 zone.
DELHIVERY Suggested StrategyDelhivery is a promising logistics stock showing recent operational turnaround, but currently trades at a stretched valuation with moderate growth prospects. Analysts recommend cautious accumulation or holding, rather than aggressive buying at current levels.
Target Projection
Target zones: ₹500–₹625
Current Price: ₹465
Upside potential: 6–29% if targets are met, but valuation leaves limited margin for aggressive entry.
Growth & Profitability
Q2 FY25 revenue: ₹2,190 crore (13% YoY growth)
PAT: ₹10 crore (second consecutive profitable quarter; signals gradual turnaround)
EBITDA margin: Improved (₹57 crore), net profit margin remains low (2.2%).
Valuation Analysis
PE (TTM): ~175.79 (high vs industry, reflects premium pricing)
Price/Book: ~3.7 (also on higher side)
Intrinsic value models suggest stock is overvalued by ₹215–₹158 above fair value estimates
Key Risks
Overvaluation risk: Stock prices significantly above many fair value models
Competitive risk: Sector heating up, may impact growth/margins
Volatility risk: Possible for sharp corrections in the short term.
Suggested Strategy
Accumulate only on dips toward ₹350–₹420 zone (closer to fair value)
Hold if already invested; consider profit booking if price sharply rallies beyond target zones
Aggressive buying is not advised at current valuation.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in






















