Hanging Man at the Highs: A Risk-Management LessonIntel Corporation had already started showing early warning signals after a strong, extended rally .
A Hanging Man candlestick near the highs signaled potential exhaustion , indicating that the risk–reward for fresh longs was no longer favorable . Such signals often emerge before momentum shifts , acting as a cautionary hint rather than an immediate reversal call .
Today’s ~17% decline (still unfolding) reinforces the view that price has likely entered a corrective phase . From a structural perspective, corrections tend to unfold in at least three waves , suggesting that further consolidation or downside cannot be ruled out .
Key takeaway: markets rarely reverse without notice — they usually signal first . Reading these signals helps manage risk before volatility expands .
Community ideas
NIFTY 4H TFICT patterns worked really well. Market gave clean and easy setups just by following Market Structure (BOS/CHoCH) and liquidity logic.
✅ Once the structure shifted, entries became simple:
• Break of Structure → pullback → continuation
• Clear lower highs / higher lows confirmation
• Smooth long & short opportunities with controlled risk
No overthinking, no indicators needed — just pure price action + structure.
Sharing this for the TradingView community so everyone can focus more on patience, confirmation, and execution.
#ICT #MarketStructure #BOS #CHoCH #NIFTY #PriceAction #SmartMoneyConcepts #TradingViewIndia
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | January 23-24✅ From the 4-hour timeframe, gold is still trading within an overall bullish trend. Price remains firmly above the MA20 and MA50, with moving averages aligned to the upside and higher lows continuing to form, indicating that the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. However, it is important to note that price has now entered a high-resistance zone near previous highs and the upper Bollinger Band. As a result, upside momentum has slowed, and the market has shifted from a one-sided rally into high-level consolidation.
✅ On the 1-hour timeframe, short-term price action remains biased to the upside, but consolidation is clearly visible. The moving average system is trending higher, yet price continues to rally and pull back repeatedly near resistance, showing a typical institutional shakeout pattern. Yesterday, price consolidated for an extended period around 4880 before breaking higher, and today’s structure closely mirrors that behavior, suggesting the market is once again waiting for a directional decision at key resistance.
🔴 Resistance levels: 4960–4980 / 4995–5000
🟢 Support levels: 4900–4910 / 4880-4865
✅ Gold Trading Strategy Reference
🔰 Strategy 1 — Buy on Pullbacks (Main Strategy)
📍 Buy Zone 1: 4900–4910
📍 Buy Zone 2: 4880-4865
🎯 Targets: 4960 / 4980 /4995
🔰 Strategy 2 — Short-Term Breakout Follow (Aggressive)
📍Sell Zone1 : 4980-4988
📍Sell Zone2 : 4995-5000
🎯 Targets: 4960 / 4950 / 4910
✅ Trend Summary
👉Medium-term: Bullish trend remains intact
👉Short-term: High-level consolidation; not suitable for aggressive chasing
👉Below 4965 → treat the market as range-bound
👉Hold above 4965 → upside potential opens toward 5000
👉Break below 4905 → expect a pullback
👉As long as 4880 holds → pullbacks remain buying opportunities
👉If 4880 is decisively broken → structure weakens, caution requir
Leading Diagonal to Double Zigzag – Jio Financial’s Full CycleFrom the lows of ₹198.65 , the stock kicked off with a classic leading diagonal — an overlapping structure, exactly how impulsive moves often begin when sentiment is still uncertain. This marked the start of a larger impulsive advance.
Post the Wave 2 low at ₹203.10 , price surged into a powerful Wave 3 rally toward ₹338.30 . Momentum confirmed the strength of this move, with RSI overshooting well into the overbought zone , validating the impulsive nature of the advance.
The rally ended with Wave 5 topping marginally above Wave 3 , but momentum failed to confirm the new high. A clear bearish RSI divergence signaled exhaustion near the top.
Since then, price has transitioned into a W–X–Y double zigzag correction , unfolding neatly within a well-aligned descending channel . Typically, such structures resolve with an upside breakout, but markets don’t always follow the textbook.
Instead, price has broken below the channel and is now sitting exactly at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire impulse near ₹252 .
From a momentum perspective, RSI is deeply stretched and hints at a possible relief bounce . If that bounce materializes, it is likely to be corrective in nature — potentially a retest of the broken channel — before one final leg lower.
The ideal structural path would be:
A short-term bounce to cool off RSI
Followed by a final Wave (v) decline below ₹252.25
Ideally accompanied by bullish RSI divergence or a clear bullish reversal candlestick
Such a move would complete Wave (c) of Y , thereby finishing the broader W–X–Y corrective structure . The correction is expected to terminate near the major pivot support zone between ₹236 and ₹228 , just above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement .
For now, this remains a wait-and-watch setup .
Patience is key rather than bottom fishing . Let price action confirm strength — meaningful reversals usually come with clear signals, not guesses.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
“GOLD MEGA RALLY: Road to $6,500 — Super-Cycle in Full Power
Gold has broken above $4,200/oz, confirming that a super-cycle has officially started. The breakout is not just technical — it is backed by global liquidity, record central-bank demand, and collapsing real yields.
My view: Gold is preparing for a parabolic rally toward $6,500 next year, where a major cycle top is likely to form.
🔥 Why Gold Can Hit $6,500
* Liquidity Cycle Turning Up
Fed QT slowdown + rising expectations of QE → strongest setup for commodities in a decade.
* Historic Central Bank Buying
China, India, Middle East are accumulating gold aggressively → long-term supply squeeze.
* Inflation Pressure Still Alive
Sticky inflation + slowing growth = real yields trending lower → ultra-bullish for gold.
* Geopolitical Premium
Safe-haven flows accelerating with every global conflict headline
Weekly Update for next week January 23, 2026, gold has reached a monumental peak. We are seeing a "once-in-a-decade" rally where domestic prices in India have crossed ₹1,59,000 per 10 grams, and global prices are knocking on the $5,000 per ounce door.
Here is the current state of the market and the essential terms you need for future trading or investing.
1. Live Market Snapshot (Jan 23, 2026)
MCX Gold (India): The February contract hit a lifetime high of ₹1,59,226 per 10 grams.
24K Spot Price: In major cities like Delhi and Mumbai, physical 24K gold is trading between ₹1,59,700 and ₹15,990 per 10 grams.
Global COMEX Gold: Prices are hovering around $4,953 per ounce.
Silver Correlation: Silver has exploded even more than gold, hitting a record ₹3,39,927 per kg on the MCX today.
2. Future Terms & Concepts to Know
To navigate this market, you must understand these high-level terms that professional traders are currently using:
A. Technical Terms
Overbought (RSI > 70): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently very high. This means the price has moved up "too fast" and a temporary dip (correction) is likely as traders sell to book profits.
Psychological Resistance: The $5,000 mark for global gold and ₹1,60,000 for Indian gold. Prices often "stall" or bounce back when hitting these round numbers.
The "Greenland Premium": A new term referring to the price spike caused by the US-Europe tensions over Greenland. If this tension resolves, expect a "cool down" in prices.
B. Trading & Risk Terms
Trailing Stop-Loss: Instead of a fixed stop-loss, you move your exit point upward as the price rises.
Example: If you bought at ₹1,55,000, you might set a stop-loss at ₹1,53,000. Once gold hits ₹1,59,000, you move that stop-loss to ₹1,57,000 to lock in your gains.
Gap Up / Gap Down: Gold has been "gapping up" (opening much higher than it closed the previous day). This indicates extreme buying pressure but also increases the risk of a "gap fill" (a sudden drop to fill the empty space on the chart).
Contango: A situation where the future price of gold is higher than the current spot price. This is currently the case, signaling that the market expects even higher prices by mid-2026.
3. Expert Forecasts for 2026
Major financial institutions have just revised their 2026 targets:
Goldman Sachs: Has raised its year-end target to $5,400 per ounce.
J.P. Morgan: Predicts an average of $5,055 by Q4 2026.
Indian Market: Some analysts (like GlobalData) suggest a domestic peak of ₹1,75,000–₹1,95,000 by late 2026 if the Rupee stays weak.
Axis Bank | Observed Price Reaction Near a 45° LevelCase Study – 8 November 2024
This idea presents an educational case study focused on intraday price behavior near a geometric level, specifically a 45° projection, observed on Axis Bank on 8 November 2024.
The study is shared to understand how price, time, and structure may interact around predefined geometric zones — without any predictive or advisory intent.
📊 Chart Observation
On 8 November 2024, Axis Bank moved toward a projected level derived from a 45° calculation, originating from an intraday reference point using Square-of-9–based methodology.
The projected zone appeared near 1168
During the afternoon session, price showed temporary pressure and rejection around this area
The behavior aligned with previously observed reactions near similar geometric levels
This observation highlights how markets may respond near certain structural zones, depending on context and timing.
🔍 What This Case Study Illustrates
Identifying a 0° reference from an intraday extreme
Observing price movement capacity along a 45° path
Noting time sensitivity, where reactions often occur near specific time windows
Understanding how a geometric zone can act as a potential reaction area, rather than a fixed resistance
These observations are intended to support chart study and market behavior analysis, not decision-making shortcuts.
📌 Educational Note
This post discusses observed historical behavior on charts.
Geometric levels and angles represent areas of interest, not guaranteed outcomes.
Market behavior may include:
Temporary pauses
Short-term pressure
Expansion or continuation depending on broader structure
No trade direction or execution guidance is provided.
🚀 Conclusion
This case study demonstrates how combining geometry, structure, and time can add clarity to intraday chart analysis when used objectively.
More such educational observations will follow.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. This is not financial advice.
INFY (Infosys)INFY gave a breakout above its old resistance near 1625 and successfully retested the level. Price is now moving closer to the next resistance zone around 1682.
The EMA structure is well aligned, indicating underlying strength. If the stock manages to break and sustain above the current resistance, there is a probability of further upside.
On the broader front, the IT index is holding its ground , even as Nifty has slipped below its 200 EMA on the daily timeframe. This relative strength in the sector is worth tracking.
Overall, the structure remains constructive.
Keep it in your watchlist.
✅ If you like my analysis, please follow me here as a token of appreciation :) in.tradingview.com/u/SatpalS/
📌 For learning and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
BEL in a Contracting Triangle — Wave 5 Loading?From the ₹240.25 low , Bharat Electronics Limited delivered a powerful upside rally , completing a higher-degree Wave 3 near ₹436 . The advance was strong, extended, and impulsive , clearly establishing the larger bullish trend.
Post the Wave 3 peak, price did not reverse impulsively . Instead, it shifted into sideways consolidation , suggesting a time-wise correction rather than price-wise damage . This behavior fits well with a Wave 4 contracting triangle , a common pause before the final leg of an impulse.
Structurally, the consolidation aligns with an A–B–C–D–E triangle , with price now appearing to be in the final leg — Wave (E) . This leg is expected to unfold as a 3-wave corrective decline (A–B–C) , terminating near the rising A–C–E trendline . A brief throw-under below this trendline remains structurally acceptable and should not be mistaken for a breakdown.
Trade Structure (Execution Focus)
The preferred entry lies near the A–C–E trendline , only if price prints a bullish candlestick pattern , indicating completion of Wave (E).
Invalidation is clearly defined below the low of Wave (C) .
If the triangle resolves as expected, a breakout would signal the start of a higher-degree Wave 5 , with upside potential beyond the Wave 3 high near ₹436 .
Fundamentally, recent order inflows support the broader bullish context , but this remains a structure-led setup , where price confirmation matters more than headlines .
In summary , Wave 3 is complete , Wave 4 is maturing , and Wave (E) completion is the final checkpoint before the next directional move.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NIFTY 50 – Elliott Wave Update (Daily) - 23 Jan 26Following the September 2024 – April 2025 corrective phase, NIFTY began forming a new impulsive structure on 7 Apr 25.
There is a high probability that Wave 5 of this new impulse has completed, based on the following observations:
Wave 1 unfolded as a brief two-candle advance, followed by Wave 2, which retraced approximately 35%, maintaining impulsive characteristics.
Wave 3 developed as an extended five-wave structure and ended on 30 June 2025, reaching 3.414× the length of Wave 1.
The subsequent Wave 4 formed a zigzag correction, retracing nearly 40% of Wave 3, and concluded on 29 August 2025.
Presumed Wave 5 again unfolded as a five-wave sequence and terminated on 5 January 2026, at 50% length of the entire Wave (1–3).
Incidentally, the new impulse wave has peaked at similar levels of previous impulse. With the completion of this impulse, NIFTY has entered a corrective phase, the exact structure of which is yet to be identified.
Importantly, the current setup coincides with:
an uncertain global / geopolitical environment, and
corrective phases underway in key NIFTY heavyweights, including Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank.
Conclusion:
Until the ongoing correction resolves and a clearer structure emerges, it may be prudent to avoid long positions in NIFTY.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | January 23, 2025
Momentum
– Daily (D1) momentum is still in a preparing-to-reverse phase, but there is no confirmed signal yet. Therefore, at this stage, we continue to wait for a daily candle close to confirm the reversal.
– H4 momentum is currently preparing to reverse to the downside, which suggests that on the H4 timeframe we may see a corrective bearish move in the coming sessions.
– H1 momentum is approaching the oversold zone, indicating that in the short term on H1, a corrective bullish move is likely to appear soon.
Wave Structure
Daily (D1) timeframe
– On D1, price remains within the blue wave 5 structure.
– Price has already reached the projected target zone, therefore today we need to closely monitor the possibility of a reversal, especially as D1 momentum is also preparing to turn.
H4 timeframe
– On H4, the orange wave 3 structure is still developing, with an internal five-wave structure in green.
– Currently, price is moving within green wave 5.
– Once green wave 5 is completed, price will complete orange wave 3 and is expected to transition into the corrective phase of orange wave 4.
H1 timeframe
– Within green wave 5, we can observe a five-wave purple structure (1–2–3–4–5), with price currently positioned in purple wave 5.
– Inside purple wave 5, the internal structure is likely forming five black waves (1–2–3–4–5).
– At this point, price may have completed black wave 3 and is preparing to form black wave 4.
– This scenario aligns well with H4 momentum preparing for a bearish reversal, reinforcing the corrective expectation.
Target Zone & Confluence
– The projected target for black wave 4 is currently estimated at the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of wave 3, around the 4908 area.
– This zone is also my preferred buy area, especially with the confluence of H4 momentum moving toward oversold conditions.
Trading Plan
Buy Zone: 4909 – 4907
Stop Loss: 4889
Take Profit 1: 4929
Take Profit 2: 4957
Reliance Industries – Elliott Wave Perspective (Daily)Reliance Industries continues to trade within its higher-degree Wave 3 (Cycle / Primary degree).
Intermediate degree Wave (3) of this larger degree Wave 3 was completed on 8 July 2024, followed by a corrective Wave (4) that ended on 7 April 2025. Since then, the stock has been unfolding a new impulsive structure, which now shows signs of completion.
There is a high probability that Wave 5 of this new impulse has ended, based on the following observations:
Wave 1 unfolded as a simple two-candle sequence, followed by Wave 2, which retraced approximately 35%.
Wave 3 was an extended five-wave structure and concluded on 9 July 2025, reaching 4.414× the length of Wave 1.
The subsequent Wave 4 formed a zigzag correction, retracing nearly 50% of Wave 3, and ended on 1 September 2025.
Wave 5 again unfolded as a five-wave structure and terminated on 5 January 2026, precisely near the 61.8% retracement of the entire Wave (1–3).
Notably, this impulse has peaked at levels similar to the 8 July 2024 high (Intermediate degree Wave 3). Additionally, the stock has now achieved roughly 2× the length of Intermediate Wave 1, further supporting the possibility of intermediate-degree Wave 3 exhaustion.
With the stock now undergoing a correction — the exact structure of which is yet to be identified — risk remains elevated. Also, stock has not met earnings estimates for last 2 quarters.
Conclusion:
Until the ongoing correction completes and a clearer structure emerges, it may be prudent to avoid initiating fresh positions.
USD/CHF Approaching Breakdown from RangeUSD/CHF is moving in a sideways corrective pattern, not a strong trend. The price is forming an A-B-C-D-E structure, which usually happens before the market makes a bigger move. Right now, price is in the last part of this pattern (wave E) and is sitting near a resistance area, where it has failed to move higher and has started to turn down. This behavior often means sellers are becoming stronger. As long as the price stays below 0.795–0.798 , the outlook remains bearish, and the market is expected to move lower toward the 0.782–0.775 support area. If this move happens, it would complete the corrective pattern after a short pause, and then the market can decide its next big direction.
Stay tuned!
@Money_Dictators
Thank you :)
BTC Compression Phase: Where Smart Money Builds Positions!Hey guy's, When I look at this chart, I’m not seeing fear or trend failure.
I’m seeing something far more important, controlled compression above demand .
Bitcoin has pulled back, swept liquidity, and is now holding above a clearly defined demand area while volatility keeps contracting.
This kind of behaviour rarely appears during panic.
It usually appears when the market is absorbing supply quietly .
What I’m seeing on the chart:
Price is still respecting the ascending demand structure , which tells me higher-timeframe buyers are active and defending key levels.
The recent move cleaned out weak hands below demand , but price did not accept lower, a classic liquidity sweep, not a breakdown.
Supply is visible above , which explains why price is compressing instead of expanding immediately. Sellers are present, but they are not overpowering buyers.
The range between ascending demand and overhead supply is tightening . This is where impatience builds, and where strong positioning usually happens.
The psychology part (this matters):
This phase feels uncomfortable.
Price isn’t doing much.
Both sides are frustrated.
And that’s usually a clue.
If Bitcoin wanted to break structure, it had a clean opportunity below demand.
It didn’t take it.
That tells me sellers are getting weaker, not stronger.
So my thinking stays simple:
I don’t want to chase upside after expansion.
I don’t want to panic into a sell-off that already swept liquidity.
I want to watch how price reacts around demand, because this is where real decisions are made.
As long as structure holds:
Pullbacks into the 88k–87k demand zone remain high-probability reaction areas.
Compression above demand keeps the door open for a mean-reversion move toward higher levels.
Only a clean breakdown and acceptance below ~84k would invalidate this structure.
Until then, I’m not trying to predict the next candle.
I’m trying to read behaviour .
Markets don’t move when everyone is excited.
They move when most people get bored, confused, or impatient.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage risk and trade according to your own plan.
Evaluating Trend and Momentum Alignment with EMA & RSI🔎 Intro / Overview
This idea presents an EMA + RSI Alignment Framework designed to help traders understand market conditions rather than chase price movements.
Often, traders feel they have “missed the move”.
In most cases, this happens not because of late entries, but because market context was not clearly defined beforehand.
This framework focuses on evaluating trend direction and momentum quality first, so traders can better understand when conditions were supportive, unclear, or weakening.
⸻
📔 Concept
Indicators are frequently misused when applied in isolation.
This framework assigns clear and specific roles to each tool:
• EMA defines trend bias, not support or resistance.
• RSI measures momentum quality, not overbought or oversold levels.
A market environment is considered valid only when EMA and RSI are aligned.
When alignment is missing, price movement alone is treated as low-quality information.
This shifts focus away from prediction and toward environment assessment.
⸻
📌 How to Use
The framework is applied through three structured steps:
1. Identify Trend Bias (EMA)
• Price holding above EMA → bullish environment
• Price holding below EMA → bearish environment
• Price frequently crossing EMA → unstable environment
2. Assess Momentum Quality (RSI)
• RSI holding above 40 → supportive bullish momentum
• RSI holding below 60 → supportive bearish momentum
• RSI fluctuating around 50 → momentum instability
3. Confirm Alignment
• EMA + RSI aligned → valid market environment
• EMA + RSI misaligned → low-quality environment
This framework is used strictly for evaluation and learning, not execution.
⸻
📊 Chart Explanation
• Bullish Alignment Zone
Price holds above EMA while RSI confirms stable bullish momentum.
• No Alignment Zone
EMA flattens and RSI becomes unstable, indicating a low-quality environment.
• Bearish Alignment Zone
Price holds below EMA while RSI confirms bearish momentum.
The RSI panel is used only for confirmation, never for signal generation.
⸻
👀 Observation
Many traders feel they missed a move only after alignment has already occurred.
This framework helps visualize:
• When alignment was present
• When conditions became unclear
• When momentum weakened
Understanding this sequence helps traders learn from price behavior instead of reacting emotionally to it.
⸻
❗ Why It Matters?
Market movement alone does not equal opportunity.
By learning to recognize alignment vs misalignment, traders can:
• Avoid chasing price after moves are over
• Stay out of choppy or unstable conditions
• Build patience and contextual awareness
Context is often the difference between consistency and frustration.
⸻
🎯 Conclusion
The EMA + RSI Alignment Framework is a context-first approach to understanding market behavior.
It does not attempt to forecast future price moves.
Instead, it explains why certain environments supported movement and why others did not.
This makes it a valuable educational tool for developing disciplined, structured market understanding.
⸻
⚠️ Disclaimer
📘 For educational purposes only.
🙅 Not SEBI registered.
❌ Not a buy/sell recommendation.
🧠 Purely a learning resource.
📊 Not financial advice.
NSE FINNIFTY - Price Action BreakdownNSE FINIFTY is trading in the value area for more than 43 weeks. The price has overall three excesses at the upper band and three excesses at the lower band. This signals bull dominance. The control line validates itself with 11 touches.
Traders must look at the following scenario:
1. Price is at the control line, and 200 EMa has worked as crucial support. This is a powerful hurdle and can change the trend. This can reach up to 27500 - 28100 .
2. If sellers outnumber buyers by closing below the control line and EMAs, the next support level would be around 25,926.
We will update further information soon.
silver spot crucial update at higher lvlsilver spot support 96$ if market hold abv than next up side 100--105$ than after 120$ expect where if support break or close blow than expect down side 93--91$ in mcx 332000 if mkt hold abv than no worry for bulls soon expect 345--360000++++ only blow 327000 sustain than downside correction 4-5000rs/
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 23rd January 2026NSE:NIFTY
Index has resistance near 25475 – 25525 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 25700 – 26750 range.
Nifty has immediate support near 25125 – 25075 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 24900 – 24850 range.
Market is expected to move upwards due to unwinding of January’26 Month F&O contract expiry as well as India EU trade deal scheduled on 27th January’26. However, downside risk still persists on global geopolitics uncertainty on the long weekend.






















