“Gold Base Holds — Ready for Breakout?”📊 Technical Chart Analysis (XAU/USD)
📌 Key Levels
Strong Support Zone (Red Box) – Price has been respecting this area and has bounced multiple times — signaling accumulation/support.
Mitigated FVG & CHoCH Area (Green Zone) – This area shows prior imbalance and a possible change of character, now acting as resistance.
Higher Resistance Region (Dark Grey) – A key supply zone the price may target if bullish momentum continues.
Important Horizontal Levels:
• Around ~4300—support (green line)
• Around ~4258—deeper support (red horizontal)
📈 Bullish Scenario (Preferred)
✔ Price is holding above support.
✔ A potential CHoCH (Change of Character) indicates buyers may be stepping in.
✔ The mitigated FVG zone above ~4375/4400 is a logical target if bullish momentum resumes.
✔ The black dashed path on your chart suggests a retest of the support before continuation.
Bullish Path:
Retest support
Bounce and clear local resistance
Rally up toward the grey supply zone above ~4400–4500
📉 Bearish Alternative
If support breaks decisively:
Price could revisit the deeper support ~4258 (red horizontal)
Then possibly resume higher momentum from that level (red dashed path)
🧠 Fundamental Reasons Supporting Bullish Gold (2026)
Here are core macro drivers that could push gold prices higher:
✔ 1. Central Bank Buying & Safe-Haven Demand
Major central banks have been accumulating gold reserves aggressively, reinforcing structural demand and reducing available supply.
The Times of India
✔ 2. Anticipated Monetary Easing
Markets increasingly expect interest rate cuts or easier policy from major central banks in 2026. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold (which doesn’t yield interest).
State Street Global Advisors
✔ 3. Weakening U.S. Dollar
Gold is priced in USD — a weaker dollar typically boosts gold due to increased purchasing power for foreign buyers.
State Street Global Advisors
✔ 4. Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty
Inflation risk, geopolitical tensions, and global macro instability have historically driven capital into gold as a hedge and safe-haven asset.
Financial Times
✔ 5. Portfolio Diversification & ETF Inflows
Record flows into gold ETFs and strategic institutional allocations have supported price strength.
Morgan Stanley
🟢 Bullish Fundamental Summary
Gold’s fundamentals point to a continued structural bull cycle — even if price consolidates in the short term. Central bank demand, possible rate cuts, USD weakness, and geopolitical uncertainty all provide strong backing for a continued uptrend into 2026.
State Street Global Advisors
+1
📌 Technical + Fundamental Confluence
Bullish Scenario is stronger if:
• Support holds above ~4300–4258
• Price breaks above mitigation zone around ~4400
• Volume increases on upward moves
