KOLTEPATIL - Wave Analysis
Educational breakdown based solely on chart structure
🔍 1. Chart Findings & Market Structure
The chart shows a clear Elliott Wave progression, where the previous impulse (Primary Wave A) topped near ₹493–524, followed by a corrective ABC decline.
✔ Key Observations
Primary Wave A formed an impulsive rally inside a rising channel.
The price later broke structure (CHoCH) indicating loss of momentum.
Current price (₹377) is trading inside the ABC structure completion zone of ₹371–385, a critical decision area.
A deeper correction toward ₹293–308 remains possible if Wave C extends.
🎓 2. Educational Points (Why These Levels Matter)
📘 A. Extended Retracement Zone: 113–128%
The chart marks ₹493–524 as the extended retracement area, which often acts as:
A wave A termination area
Strong reversal zone
Liquidity grab region
This supports the idea that the major impulse from March–July is complete.
📘 B. Wave B / Wave 2 Retracement
A natural correction for Wave B or Wave 2 typically pulls back 50–78% of the previous impulse.
This gives the ₹368–294 broad range as the acceptable retracement.
📘 C. Completing Wave C (Corrective ABC)
Wave C generally equals Wave A or 1.272–1.618 extension of Wave A.
The chart’s projection supports a potential completion:
First zone: ₹371–385 (current test)
Final zone: ₹293–308 (if extended C-wave unfolds)
📉 3. Current Price Action Insight
Price is currently hovering near the ABC structure completion zone (₹371–385).
No strong bullish reversal candle is visible yet—indicating buyers are waiting for confirmation.
Price remains in a downward corrective structure, but nearing exhaustion.
This phase is ideal for planning, not rushing.
🔮 4. Future Prediction Based on Wave Theory
Two scenarios emerge:
🟦 Scenario 1: ABC Correction Completes at Current Levels (₹371–385)
If the current demand zone holds:
Price forms a wave B bottom and begins Primary Wave C upward.
Expected targets:
🎯 First Target: ₹461–473
🎯 Final Target: ₹561 (Primary Wave C completion zone)
🟥 Scenario 2: ABC Correction Extends to ₹293–308
If ₹371–385 fails:
Market enters the correction wave 5 completion zone (₹293–308).
From this demand block, a stronger bullish reversal is expected.
Long-term bullish structure remains intact if it stays above ₹284 (stop level).
🛒 5. Buying Strategy (Educated Approach)
🟩 FIRST BUYING RANGE: ₹371–385 (Conservative Entry)
Enter only if:
Strong bullish candle (engulfing / pin bar / OB reclaim)
RSI bullish divergence
Price closes above structure high (minor CHoCH)
🟦 SECOND BUYING RANGE: ₹293–308 (High-Value Entry)
A deeper correction provides:
Lower risk
Maximum R:R
Stronger probability of reversal
Use this zone if the first one fails.
⚖ 6. Risk–Reward Analysis
If entering at ₹371–385
Stop-Loss: Below ₹284 (daily close basis)
Upside Potential: Up to ₹561
Reward : Risk Ratio: Approx 3.5–4.2 R
If entering at ₹293–308
Stop-Loss: Below ₹284
Upside Potential: Up to ₹473–561
Reward : Risk Ratio: Approx 5–7 R (excellent)
🔐 7. Confirmation Strategies for Better Entries
Use any two or more of the following:
✔ 1. Market Structure Shift
Wait for a CHoCH above the last swing high inside the zone.
✔ 2. Volume Expansion
Rising green volume during rebound increases reliability.
✔ 3. Bullish Divergence (RSI or MACD)
Signals weakening sellers.
✔ 4. Break & Retest Method
Let price break a minor resistance
Enter on retest to confirm strength
✔ 5. Demand Zone Reaction
Look for:
Long tail candles
Absorption wicks
Order block reclaim
These indicate smart money interest.
🧠 8. Summary & View
The stock is in the final leg of a correction and is approaching highly reactive Fibonacci zones.
Structure favors a bullish wave (Primary Wave C) in the coming months if key support holds.
📌 First confirmation: Bounce from ₹371–385
📌 Strongest bullish case: Reversal from ₹293–308
📌 Invalidation: Close below ₹284
The long setup has strong wave logic, clean levels, and attractive R:R.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects wave-structure interpretation based solely on the provided chart.
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst.
Please conduct your own research or consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
