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7th Dec ’23 - tomorrow's RBI meet- more liquidity drain ???BankNifty Analysis The opening candle was very similar to the Nifty’s. The low set in the opening minutes ended up as the low of the day. In a way, it shows the bulls are still in control. The pattern was quite similar to yesterday. Weak open and then range-bound trade. 4mts chart link - click here Banks will be on their toes tomorrow huffing and puffing to the RBI Governor’s announcement. I feel he will bring in some measures to cut down the liquidity. The 2 last attempts by varying the iCRR and CAR did not go that well. Bank stocks reacted pretty badly but recovered and hit new highs. Paytm fell 20% today when it said it might cut back on small value loans ~ Rs50000. I guess this impact came from the hike in CAR weightage from the last meeting. 63mts chart link - click here I guess there is no clue from the chart here, will have to spend the time in front of the TV tomorrow to hear from the RBI governor directly. Since I am already neutral on BankNifty, my level to go short for tomorrow will be 46341.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
6th Dec ’23 - stance changed to neutral, RBI policy on Friday ?BankNifty Today Analysis BankNifty also had a gap up open, but the first-hour price action did not seem normal. Not just because we went underwater and traded negative for the rest of the day, but the lack of will by the banks to move up. We all know the RBI MPC started the meeting today and we will have the summary on Friday @ 10.00 AM. 5mts chart link - click here Seems like the market is expecting something from the RBI Governor this time. The last time he came up with a CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) weight increment - the markets fell. Prior to that, we had the I-CRR incremental cash reserve ratio of 10%. I guess he is doing everything to control the liquidity without raising the repo rates. What will he do this time - increase the weight on SLR (statutory liquidity ratio), ask banks to keep more collateral with RBI ? The next move by Banks will make or break Nifty, that is because to continue the breakout strategy we need strong momentum. We cannot have a situation where Nifty rockets with the BankNifty stalling. 63mts chart link - click here The first 63mts candle of today is encircled, see the weight its body carries. There was a drop of 482pts ~ 1.02%. So even though we hit a new ATH today, this candle looks worrisome. I wish to change my stance to neutral from bullish for tomorrow. We will get 100% clarity only by Friday on what RBI Governor has in mind, till then it is better to take only high-conviction trades.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram