Cupid: Past Multibagger Forming Rounding Bottom BreakoutFrom ₹10 to ₹150: How CUPID Stock Became a Multibagger Dream and What's Next. Let's analyse and Deep Dive into my Chart of the Week Idea.
Price Action Analysis:
Long-term Trend Analysis:
- Primary Trend: Strongly bullish multi-year uptrend since 2023
- Trend Structure: Classic accumulation-markup-distribution pattern visible
- Price Progression: Massive rally from ₹10 levels in 2023 to ₹145+ levels
- Current Phase: Potential early stage of renewed markup phase after consolidation
Volume Spread Analysis:
Volume Profile Assessment:
- Accumulation Phases: High volume during the 2023-2024 markup phase
- Distribution Evidence: Volume spike during 2024 highs suggesting profit-taking
- Current Volume: Recent volume expansion (74.46M) confirming breakout momentum
- Volume Trend: Healthy volume participation during the current breakout phase
Volume-Price Relationship:
- Positive Correlation: Rising prices accompanied by expanding volume
- Breakout Validation: Current breakout supported by above-average volume
- Distribution Concerns: Previous high volume at peaks indicated selling pressure
Key Price Levels:
Support Levels:
- Immediate Support: ₹95-100 (recent consolidation base)
- Critical Support: ₹80-85 (previous resistance turned support)
- Major Support: ₹65-70 (rectangle pattern lower boundary)
- Ultimate Support: ₹50-55 (long-term trend line support)
Resistance Levels:
- Key Resistance: ₹145-150 (previous highs)
- Major Resistance: ₹150-155
- Target Extension: ₹170-180 (measured move projection)
Technical Indicators Assessment:
Trend Indicators:
- Moving Averages: Price clearly above major moving averages, indicatinga bullish bias
- Trend Strength: Strong upward trajectory since the consolidation base
- Momentum: Building positive momentum after prolonged consolidation
Trade Setup & Strategy:
Primary Long Setup:
- Entry Strategy: Buy on dips to ₹115-120 support zone
- Confirmation: Entry above ₹145 for momentum traders
Alternative Strategies:
Conservative Approach:
- Entry: Wait for pullback to ₹100-105 levels
- Timeframe: Medium to long-term holding period (Weekly Charts)
- Risk Profile: Lower risk, moderate reward
Aggressive Approach:
- Entry: Immediate entry at current levels (₹145)
- Timeframe: Short to medium-term momentum play (Daily Charts)
- Risk Profile: Higher risk, higher reward potential
Entry and Exit Levels:
Entry Zones:
- Zone 1: ₹115-120 (Primary entry for dip buyers)
- Zone 2: ₹145-150 (Momentum breakout entry)
- Zone 3: ₹100-105 (Deep pullback opportunity)
Target Levels:
- Target 1: ₹150-155 (Short-term objective)
- Target 2: ₹160-165 (Medium-term target based on pattern)
- Target 3: ₹180-190 (Long-term extension target)
- Ultimate Target: ₹200+ (Bull market extension)
Exit Strategy:
- Profit Booking: Book 30% at Target 1, 40% at Target 2, and the remaining at Target 3
- Trailing Stop: Implement trailing stop-loss above ₹140
- Time Stop: Review position if targets are not achieved in 8-12 months
Stop-Loss Strategy:
Stop-Loss Levels:
- Aggressive Stop: ₹110 (for entries around ₹120)
- Moderate Stop: ₹100 (for swing traders)
- Conservative Stop: ₹85 (for long-term investors)
Stop-Loss Management:
- Initial Risk: Limit to 8-10% of the entry price
- Trailing Mechanism: Move stop-loss to breakeven after 15% gains
- Pattern Stop: Below ₹95 invalidates the breakout setup
- Time-based Stop: Exit if below ₹110 for more than 2 weeks
Position Sizing & Risk Management:
Position Sizing Guidelines:
- Conservative Investors: 2-3% of portfolio
- Moderate Risk Takers: 4-5% of portfolio
- Aggressive Traders: 6-8% of portfolio (maximum)
- Sectoral Exposure: Limit total pharma/healthcare exposure to 15-20%
Risk Management Framework:
- Maximum Loss: Limit loss to 2% of total portfolio per trade
- Diversification: Don't concentrate more than 10% in a single stock
- Sector Allocation: Balance with other defensive sectors
- Time Diversification: Stagger entries over 2-3 weeks
Portfolio Integration:
- Correlation Check: Monitor correlation with other pharma stocks
- Sector Rotation: Consider the pharma sector cycle and rotation
- Market Cap Allocation: Balance small-cap exposure with large-caps
- Liquidity Consideration: Account for small-cap liquidity constraints
Risk Assessment:
Technical Risks:
- Failed Breakout: Risk of false breakout below ₹115
- Distribution Pattern: High volume at peaks may indicate selling
- Overbought Conditions: Rapid rise may lead to consolidation
- Support Breakdown: Break below ₹95 would be technically negative
Fundamental Risks:
- Valuation Concerns: High PE ratio of 96+ indicates premium valuation
- Sales Decline: The Recent 7% sales decline raises growth concerns
- Sector Competition: Increasing competition in the contraceptive market
- Regulatory Changes: Healthcare sector regulatory modifications
Market Risks:
- Small-Cap Volatility: Higher volatility compared to large-caps
- Liquidity Risk: Potential liquidity issues during market stress
- Sentiment Risk: Healthcare sector sentiment shifts
- Global Economic: Impact of global economic conditions on exports
Company Overview & Fundamental Backdrop:
Business Profile:
- NSE:CUPID is India's premier manufacturer of male and female condoms, personal lubricant, and IVD kits, established in 1993
- The company manufactures and exports contraceptives, including male and female condoms, and medical devices, with a focus on sexual health and reproductive safety, serving both domestic and international markets, supplying high-quality products to governments and NGOs
- Market capitalization: ₹3,940 crores as of July 2025, classified as a Small Cap company
Financial Performance:
- Current valuation metrics: PE ratio of 96.3 and PB ratio of 11.5
- Recent performance: Sales declined by 7.24% to Rs 61 crore in Q4 FY25 versus Rs 66 crore in Q4 FY24; however, net profit rose 2.71% to Rs 41 crore for FY25
- Long-term returns: The stock has delivered 133% returns in the last 3 years
Sectoral Growth Outlook:
- The Indian contraceptive devices market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2-6.3% from 2025 to 2030
- Market size estimated at USD 264.01 million in 2025, expected to reach USD 377.61 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.42%
- India's pharmaceutical sector aims to grow from the current US$50 billion to US$450 billion by 2047, with India being the 3rd largest producer of drugs globally
Monitoring Parameters:
What to Look Closely at Technically?
- Weekly Close: Monitor weekly closes above ₹115 for trend continuation
- Volume Trends: Watch for volume expansion on up-moves
- Relative Strength: Compare performance with the Nifty Healthcare Index
What to Look Closely at Fundamentally?
- Quarterly Results: Track revenue growth and margin expansion
- Order Book: Monitor new contract wins and export orders
- Sector Trends: Keep track of contraceptive market growth
- Management Commentary: Follow management guidance and outlook
Now, when to exit?
- Technical Breakdown: Close below ₹95 for two consecutive days
- Volume Reversal: High volume selling at resistance levels
- Fundamental Deterioration: Significant decline in business metrics
- Sector Weakness: Broad-based healthcare sector underperformance
So, My Take:
NSE:CUPID presents a compelling technical setup with a confirmed breakout from a year-long consolidation pattern. The stock has transformed from a ₹10 stock to a multibagger, and current technical indicators suggest potential for further upside. However, premium valuation and recent sales decline warrant careful risk management. The trade offers an attractive risk-reward profile for investors willing to accept small-cap volatility in exchange for participation in a growing healthcare subsector.
Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR.
NO RECO. For Buy/Sell.
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Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Roundingbottompatternbreakout
Muhurat Day Investment Pick for long Term (ABSLAMC)Hello everyone, i wish you all Happy Deepawali and new sanvat Year, i hope new year brings you good wealth and good health.
Today i am publishing a stock on special day (MUHURAT TRADING DAY), It is a long term investment idea from my side, i am also holding this stock and today again i have added in my portfolio. Stock is really good having good management and right now stock has given Rounding bottom pattern breakout with huge volume. All the levels i already have written on chart. I am expecting huge rally ahead in it, think for long term like 10 years plus and you will get huge returns.
About:-
Incorporated in 1994, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC is set up as a joint venture between Aditya Birla Capital Ltd and Sun Life AMC. The Co. offers Mutual Fund services, Portfolio Management services, offshore and real estate offerings.
Key Points:-
India’s Leading AMC ABSBL is one of the largest non-bank affiliated AMC in India managing AUM of ₹6002 bn under its suite of mutual funds, portfolio management services, offshore and real estate offerings
Market Cap
₹ 23,138 Cr.
Current Price
₹ 802
High / Low
₹ 804 / 436
Stock P/E
25.8
Book Value
₹ 113
Dividend Yield
1.67 %
ROCE
34.9 %
ROE
27.4 %
Face Value
₹ 5.00
Industry PE
22.6
Debt
₹ 75.0 Cr.
EPS
₹ 31.1
Promoter holding
75.0 %
Intrinsic Value
₹ 382
Pledged percentage
0.00 %
EVEBITDA
19.0
Change in Prom Hold
-0.05 %
Profit Var 5Yrs
11.8 %
Sales growth 5Years
3.05 %
Return over 5years
%
Debt to equity
0.02
Net profit
₹ 896 Cr.
ROE 5Yr
30.9 %
Profit growth
34.8 %
Earnings yield
5.14 %
PEG Ratio
2.19
Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades.
Dear traders, If you like my work then do not forget to hit like and follow me, and guy's let me know what do you think about this idea in comment box, i would be love to reply all of you guy's.
Rounding Bottom Pattern Breakout and Retest Seen in ABSLAMCHello Everyone i hope you all will be doing good in your life and your trading as well. I have brought a stock which has given a breakout of ROUNDING BOTTOM PATTERN later we have seen pull back pattern as well, Now stock has given good pullback from it's breakout zone with huge volume spike,. Stock is ready to fly in blue sky. Think for long term only. stock is just trading near to IPO price. India’s Leading AMC ABSBL is one of the largest non-bank affiliated AMC in India managing AUM of ₹6002 bn under its suite of mutual funds, portfolio management services, offshore and real estate offerings.
PAN India presence:-
Co. has the largest impanelled distribution network covering 290+ locations with 300+ national distributors and 76,300 Mutual Fund distributors covering 19,000+ Pan-India pin codes.
Market Cap
₹ 22,463 Cr.
Current Price
₹ 779
High / Low
₹ 804 / 423
Stock P/E
27.0
Book Value
₹ 110
Dividend Yield
1.73 %
ROCE
34.9 %
ROE
27.4 %
Face Value
₹ 5.00
Industry PE
23.9
Debt
₹ 79.1 Cr.
EPS
₹ 28.9
Promoter holding
75.0 %
Intrinsic Value
₹ 363
Pledged percentage
0.00 %
EVEBITDA
20.1
Change in Prom Hold
-0.05 %
Profit Var 5Yrs
11.8 %
Sales growth 5Years
3.05 %
Return over 5years
%
Debt to equity
0.02
Net profit
₹ 832 Cr.
ROE 5Yr
30.9 %
Profit growth
22.6 %
Earnings yield
4.80 %
PEG Ratio
2.29
Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades.
Dear traders, If you like my work then do not forget to hit like and follow me, and guy's let me know what do you think about this idea in comment box, i would be love to reply all of you guy's.
Thankyou.