a correction in impulse / correction in SBINElliott Wave Analysis
1) Impulse Wave:-
there is a chance of 3rd major wave ending and the 4th impulse wave is taking place.
after a fall we can accumulate.
2). Corrective Wave:- (complex correction)
A correction wave had completed and now the connecting wave X is forming may be the next wave can be a formation of Y or a complex correction.
Sbin
SBIN Daily looking bullishSBIN daily looking bullish, taking support from 200 ema, last swing low support.
Good to buy at 567 for target of 621 with sl below 554
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10 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty RBI hikes CRR by 10%BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, banknifty has fallen 34pts ~ 0.08% (flattish). Compare this to Nifty which rose 0.8%. In our markets banks are the leading indicator, whereas in the US its the non-banks. That is why professionals look up to banknifty in India and Nasdaq in the US as leading indicators of trends.
BankNifty Today’s Analysis
We had a gap down opening and traded with no special punch till 10.00. The RBI Governor first announced the status quo on the repo rate of 6.5%. With the prices of food, groceries spiking, I think he made a bold move to keep the interest rate unchanged. This really excited the banks and we started to rally and took out the intraday high of yesterday.
The next 2 announcements tanked the markets, first he revised the inflation forecast for the current year to 5.4% (more pain to the poor). And then he announced a 10% hike in the cash reserve ratio that needs to be maintained by the banks (temporarily). Read the full minutes - click here.
The best way to control inflation is to reduce the liquidity in the markets, a higher CRR will do that - but is it more effective than increasing the repo rate only time will tell. The surprise announcement of withdrawal of Rs2000 notes would have added more liquidity into the system and most of these funds would have found their way into the financial markets (equity or debt). Banks may have to reassess their cash levels to maintain this additional 10% cash with RBI. It will be prudent to hear from HDFCBK, ICICIBK and SBIN on the impact (maybe we can expect a news/event in 1 week).
If you look at the 5mts chart, the fall of 499pts ~ 1.11% stands out. What is more dramatic is the low point went below yesterday’s swing-low unlike Nifty50. And the further price action was negative unlike flattish for Nifty50.
Credits to the bulls who held the ground pretty well even with so much of news/event and historically bubble style valuations. Or it could be because the bigger bears are still hibernating.
Dont be confused with a lot of trend lines. The blue one was there from yesterday, the orange line I drew today, because I felt the blue trend line may be too steep and misleading. What if the gap-up on 27th July was just a blip? If yes, the orange trend line that touches the close of 26th July should be more accurate.
The green highlight shows the double top as well as the H&S pattern in a falling market and respecting the trendlines. I wish to change by stance to 100% bearish for tomorrow.
Evening star in SBIN, can it take stock lower?SBIN has given a fall of 7% in this week after forming a double top pattern.
An evening star pattern has been formed on the weekly time frame and stock has closed below the 20 ema.
After trading around the ATH stock has given a nice fall and in the last trading session too it has given 3% fall.
Volume indicator also confirms the pattern as the volume of the red candle is higher than the doji candle formed previously.
A short trade can be initiated in the stock once it starts trading below today's week low. The stock can test 550 levels so as there are high chances of froming lower lows lower highs.
The stock may take a halt candle on the daily charts, as it has formed 4 red candle and is trading between both the moving averages.
If the stock retest higher levels before giving another bearish leg, sell positions can be created once there is a negative candle formation near golden ratio of fibonacci series.
Entry :- Below 571, On bearish candle around 600 levels.
Targets :-555, 505
Stop losses should be created on 1:2 or 1:3 basis.
Positional trades can be initiated in the stock as it may take time to test the levels. Next expiry future or options can be sold as August expiry option will take profit due to time decay.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
SBIN: Kuch Kuch hogaHi,
An inverted Head & Shoulder is visible on the daily chart of SBIN. One can look to create a fresh Position in the scrip.
One can buy the scrip at around 596-600, SL@584 and Targets are 610/620/630
The risk to reward ratio is 1:2.5
Exit the position if the stop loss is triggered on DCB.
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Disclaimer: Content shared is for information and education purposes only and should not be treated as investment or trading advice. Please do your own analysis or take independent professional financial advice before making any investments based on your own personal circumstances. Investment in securities are subject to market risks, please carry out your due diligence before investing. And last but not the least, past performance is not indicative of future returns.
State Bank of India ( Neowave Forecast)Hi Everyone
This is our final chart of SBI which consist 10 percentage weightage of Bank NIfty. Already posted HDFC bank and ICICI bank (both consist 60 percentage weightage)
With this you will have proper understanding of current and future directions of banknifty. I will update further when the times come, till than happy hunting.
Thank You.
SBINSBIN:- Head and shoulders pattern forming on the hourly time frame
Hello traders,
As always, simple and neat charts so everyone can understand and not make it too complicated.
rest details mentioned in the chart.
will be posting more such ideas like this. Until that, like share and follow :)
check my other ideas to get to know about all the successful trades based on price action.
Thanks,
Ajay.
keep learning and keep earning.
NMDC Long 3 reasons for a positive outlook.
1- NMDC is trying to bounce back from the Fibbo 50% level.
2- Price has given the breakout of the falling trend line and trading above the breakout level.
3- MACD has turned positive after positive diversion.
It looks suitable short term trading with favorable RR ratio.
Disclaimer - I am not a SEBI-registered technical analyst and advisor so contact your financial advisor and make a self-decision. I will not be responsible for any profit and loss
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 27 JUN 2023BN opened at 43804 and then had a flattish price move till 13.00 after which it propelled forward like a rocket. Interestingly Finnifty's chart (which we will discuss shortly) had more thrust compared to BN & N50.
The 470 pts rally we had from 13.05 to close was nothing short of remarkable. Initially the momentum was slow, but as soon as the short covering started we had a broad based rally. None of component stock closed in red today. SBIN up 1.62%, HDFCBK up 1.41%, AXIS up 1.32%, KOTAKBANK up 1.19%.
1hr TF
If you remember from yesterday's research report, BN was almost completing a double bottom pattern at the 43404 level. The last leg of W was fading, until we had the break through today.
What really happened today was the 44068 resistance was taken out, preceding that we had 2 strong green candles - most likely due to CE short covering.
Final close is some 100pts above the SR zone of 44068 which means there is every possibility BN could defend it for the expiry tomorrow.
MANKIND PharmaMankind Pharma is looking good to place buy orders with a favorable risk-reward ratio. in the last trading session, it has given the breakout of the listing day high.
Disclaimer - I am not a SEBI-registered technical analyst and advisor so contact your financial advisor and make a self-decision. I will not be responsible for any profit and loss
SBIN 29th JUNE-1x 29JUN2023 600CE - ₹ 3.65
+1x 29JUN2023 620CE - ₹ 1.15
Prob. of Profit- 81.88%
Max. Profit-₹ +3,750(7.34%)
Required Margin -- ₹ +51,084
PCR-0.60
At the 600 strike level, 14,580,000 of OI which is the highest CALL selling
There was a 2,499,000 OI change.
577 is a crucial level for SBIN, but as the candles are getting smaller in size 1Hr time frame, this could be a sign of trend change, but still, the sellers are in charge.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Analysis
In this expiry week, 12th to 18th May banknifty has moved up only 0.61% ~ 263pts. We have hit an important milestone this week though, 0.10 pts shy of all time high - 44151.7 on 15th.
Banknifty is immensely bullish considering how Nifty50 is behaving. A trader on 15th or 16th would have normally expected BN to surpass the ATH to hit new records. The pull back of 380pts from the swing high is mainly because of the negative sentiment of Nifty50.
It could even be a normal profit booking after a breathless run, and as banknifty has not tested the support on 17th or today - the bull run should stay intact.
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Today's Analysis
We had a gradually declining day today after the gap up open at 44006. The price action may appear negative due to the falling shape, but we still ended the day in green.
There was a 272pt abrupt fall between 13.40 to 13.50 i.e. in the 10mts window - this looked like a warning shot. esp because the volumes also surged. Later on I read the news that SBIN results were declared. An there was a swing of 2.61% ~ 15.5 pts in this period.
Luckily 43800 PE spiked helping many traders book a zero-to-hero kind of profit. This surge came totally unexpected. It surged 591% from 14.55 to 101.9. It also goes to prove that option sellers should not take things lightly - surges like this could really wipe out the hard earned money.
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15mts TF is not looking fully bullish, although today's gap up would have given lot of hope for the bulls - it did not really sustain. Also a falling price action may also indicate the tiredness.
Is the ATH breaking out getting delayed and markets in a phase of indecisiveness?
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1hr TF is not really showing signs of slowing down either. Visually examining the moving average will also give you a fair idea - the slope is good and its increasing in value.
The shorter term EMA once it starts dipping will give us a fair warning to reconsider our bullish stance.