Natural gas bullish divergence buy trade set upNatural gas is formed a bullish divergence and it is now bouncing up after forming selling climax on the hourly time frame. The commodity has the next resistance at 289 and that makes it at around 15 points on the upside as the target which will be the first target, there is every chance that the commodity could continue to rally a lot higher if it takes out that particular resistance.
Not investment advice.
Search in ideas for "COMMODITY"
nifty analysisAll the information shared in this chart is provided for strictly educational purposes only. This chart is sharing information are based on the theory of technical analysis. This is not an offer to buy or sell stocks, futures, options, commodity, forex, interests or any other trading security. Back test yourself before jump into live market consult your financial adviser and use proper risk management.All the information shared in this chart is provided for strictly educational purposes only. This chart is sharing information are based on the theory of technical analysis. This is not an offer to buy or sell stocks, futures, options, commodity, forex, interests or any other trading security. Back test yourself before jump into live market consult your financial adviser and use proper risk management.
DCW - Caustic Soda PlayAnother one of those commodity chemical players who could benefit from the price rise in commodity chemicals.
The stock could breakout of its downtrend and diagonal trendline resistance.
Long above 45.55. Stoploss below 43.50.
I would double my allocation above 48 if and when the AVWAP of this entire downmove can be taken out. (Previous resistance)
Silver pierces six-month-old resistance despite overbought RSISilver pierced 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of May-September 2021 downtrend to refresh seven-month high on Tuesday. Following that, an upward sloping trend line from September 2021 challenged the metal’s buyers but couldn’t hold the forte. Also acting as the key hurdle is the overbought RSI conditions suggesting a pullback. Given the quote’s sustained trading above the $26.20 trend line figure, the 78.6% Fibo. level surrounding $27.15 and multiple levels marked during mid-2021 around $28.20 will question the commodity’s rally targeting the May 2021 peak of $28.72.
Alternatively, a pullback in silver prices, which is widely anticipated, needs validation from the late 2021 peak of $25.35. Following that, January’s high of $24.68 and the 200-DMA near $24.10 will gain the market’s attention. If at all the commodity prices break $24.10 DMA support, it becomes vulnerable to test the 2022 bottom close to $22.00. During the fall, the 100-DMA level of $23.50 may act as an intermediate halt.
To sum up, silver prices stay above the short-term key resistance line as the oscillators suggest a pullback move.
nifty supply and demandsupply and demand, in economics, relationship between the quantity of a commodity that producers wish to sell at various prices and the quantity that consumers wish to buy. It is the main model of price determination used in economic theory. The price of a commodity is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in a market. The resulting price is referred to as the
CANARA BANK bearish #Elliot_HarishRao CANARA BANK
--> Elongated Flat CORRECTION
Wave formations:
Wave (A,B,C) denoted circle black colour
Wave A ==> inner wave (a,b,c)
Wave b ==> inner wave (a,b,c)
Wave c ==> inner wave (1,2,3,4,5)
Rules and objectives
Elongated Flat:
If the c-wave is more than 138.2% of
wave- b, the market is forming an
Elongated Flat
The Elliott Wave Principle, or Elliott wave theory, is a form of technical analysis that finance traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology and price levels, such as highs and lows, by looking for patterns in prices.
Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), an American accountant, developed a model for the underlying social principles of financial markets by studying their price movements, and developed a set of analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves, or simply waves. Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature's Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that "because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable."
he Elliott Wave Principle states that markets grow from small price movements by linking Elliot wave patterns to form larger five-wave and three-wave structures that exhibit self-similarity, applicable on all timescales. Each level of such timescales is called the degree of the wave, or price pattern. Each degree of waves consists of one full cycle of motive and corrective waves. Waves 1, 3, and 5 of each cycle are motive in character, while waves 2 and 4 are corrective. The majority of motive waves assure forward progress in the direction of the prevailing trend, in bull or bear markets, but yielding an overall principle of growth of a market.
The overall movement of a wave one degree higher is upward in a bullish trend. After the initial five waves forward and three waves of correction, the sequence is repeated on a larger degree and the self-similar fractal geometry continues to unfold. The completed motive pattern comprises 89 waves, followed by a completed corrective pattern of 55 waves.
Each degree of a pattern in a financial market has a name. Practitioners use symbols for each wave to indicate both function and degree. Numbers are used for motive waves, and letters for corrective waves (shown in the highest of the three idealized series of wave structures or degrees). Degrees are not strictly defined by absolute size or duration, by form. Waves of the same degree may be of very different size or duration.
While exact time spans may vary, the customary order of degrees is reflected in the following sequence:
Grand supercycle: multi-century
Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
Cycle: one year to several years, or even several decades under an Elliott Extension
Primary: a few months to two years
Intermediate: weeks to months
Minor: weeks
Minute: days
Minuette: hours
Subminuette: minutes
Some analysts specify additional smaller and larger degrees.
Wave personality and characteristics
Elliott wave analysts (or Elliotticians) hold that each individual wave has its own signature or characteristic, which typically reflects the psychology of the moment. Understanding those personalities is key to the application of the Wave Principle; they are defined below. (Definitions assume a bull market in equities; the characteristics apply in reverse in bear markets.)
Five wave pattern (dominant trend) Three wave pattern (corrective trend)
Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts. Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.
Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern. Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1. Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pullback if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.
Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).
Pattern recognition and fractals
Elliott's market model relies heavily on looking at price charts. Practitioners study developing trends to distinguish the waves and wave structures, and discern what prices may do next; thus the application of the Wave Principle is a form of pattern recognition.
The structures Elliott described meet the common definition of a fractal (self-similar patterns appearing at every degree of trend). Elliott wave practitioners argue that just as naturally occurring fractals often expand and grow more complex over time, the model shows that collective human psychology develops in natural patterns, via buying and selling decisions reflected in market prices: "It's as though we are somehow programmed by mathematics. Seashell, galaxy, snowflake or human: we're all bound by the same order." Critics, however, argue it is a form of pareidolia.
Wave rules and guidelines
A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules:
Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation.
A common guideline called "alternation" observes that in a five-wave pattern, waves 2 and 4 often take alternate forms; a simple sharp move in wave 2, for example, suggests a complex mild move in wave 4. Alternation can occur in impulsive and corrective waves. Elliott observed that alternate waves of the same degree must be distinctive and unique in price, time, severity, and construction. All formations can guide influences on market action. The time period covered by each formation, however, is the major deciding factor in the full manifestation of the Rule of Alternation. A sharp counter-trend correction in wave 2 covers a short distance in horizontal units. This should produce a sideways counter-trend correction in wave 4, covering a longer distance in horizontal units, and vice versa. Alternation provides analysts a notice of what not to expect when analyzing wave formations.
Corrective wave patterns unfold in forms known as zigzags, flats, or triangles. In turn these corrective patterns can come together to form more complex corrections. Similarly, a triangular corrective pattern is formed usually in wave 4, but very rarely in wave 2, and is the indication of the end of a correction.
Fibonacci relationships
R. N. Elliott's analysis of the mathematical properties of waves and patterns eventually led him to conclude that "The Fibonacci Summation Series is the basis of The Wave Principle". Numbers from the Fibonacci sequence surface repeatedly in Elliott wave structures, including motive waves (1, 3, 5), a single full cycle (8 waves), and the completed motive (89 waves) and corrective (55 waves) patterns. Elliott developed his market model before he realized that it reflects the Fibonacci sequence. "When I discovered The Wave Principle action of market trends, I had never heard of either the Fibonacci Series or the Pythagorean Diagram".
The Fibonacci sequence is also closely connected to the Golden ratio (1.618). Practitioners commonly use this ratio and related ratios to establish support and resistance levels for market waves, namely the price points which help define the parameters of a trend. See Fibonacci retracement.
Finance professor Roy Batchelor and researcher Richard Ramyar, a former Director of the United Kingdom Society of Technical Analysts and formerly Global Head of Research at Lipper and Thomson Reuters Wealth Management, studied whether Fibonacci ratios appear non-randomly in the stock market, as Elliott's model predicts. The researchers said the "idea that prices retrace to a Fibonacci ratio or round fraction of the previous trend clearly lacks any scientific rationale". They also said "there is no significant difference between the frequencies with which price and time ratios occur in cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and frequencies which we would expect to occur at random in such a time series".
Robert Prechter replied to the Batchelor–Ramyar study, saying that it "does not challenge the validity of any aspect of the Wave Principle...it supports wave theorists' observations", and that because the authors had examined ratios between prices achieved in filtered trends rather than Elliott waves, "their method does not address actual claims by wave theorists". Prechter also claimed through the Socionomics Institute, of which he is the executive director, that data in the Batchelor–Ramyar study show "Fibonacci ratios do occur more often in the stock market than would be expected in a random environment".
Extracted from the same relationship between Elliott Waves and Fibonacci ratio, a 78.6% retracement level is identified as the best place for buying or selling (in continuation to the larger trend) as it increases the risk to reward ratio up to 1:3.
It has been suggested that Fibonacci relationships are not the only irrational number based relationships evident in waves.
After Elliott
Following Elliott's death in 1948, other market technicians and financial professionals continued to use the Wave Principle and provide forecasts to investors. Charles Collins, who had published Elliott's "Wave Principle" and helped introduce Elliott's theory to Wall Street, ranked Elliott's contributions to technical analysis on a level with Charles Dow.
Hamilton Bolton, founder of The Bank Credit Analyst, also known as BCA Research Inc., provided wave analysis to a wide readership in the 1950s and 1960s through a number of annual supplements of market commentary. He also authored the book "The Elliott Wave Principle of Stock Market Behavior".
Bolton introduced the Elliott Wave Principle to A.J. Frost (1908-1999), who provided weekly financial commentary on the Financial News Network in the 1980s. Over the course of his lifetime Frost's contributions to the field were of great significance and today the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts awards the A.J. Frost Memorial Award to someone each year who has also made a significant contribution to the field of technical analysis.
The first A.J. Frost Memorial Award was awarded to Robert Prechter in 1999, with whom Frost co-authored the Elliott Wave Principle in 1978.
Adoption and use
Robert Prechter found Elliott's work while working as a market technician at Merrill Lynch. His prominence as a forecaster during the bull market of the 1980s brought wide exposure to Elliott's work. Prechter remains the most widely known Elliott analyst.
Among market technicians, wave analysis is widely accepted as a component of trade. The Elliott Wave Principle is among the methods included in the exam that analysts must pass to earn the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, a professional accreditation developed by the CMT Association.
Robin Wilkin, Ex-Global Head of FX and Commodity Technical Strategy at JPMorgan Chase, says "the Elliott Wave Principle ... provides a probability framework as to when to enter a particular market and where to get out, whether for a profit or a loss."
Jordan Kotick, Global Head of Technical Strategy at Barclays Capital and past President of the Market Technicians Association, has said that R. N. Elliott's "discovery was well ahead of its time. In fact, over the last decade or two, many prominent academics have embraced Elliott's idea and have been aggressively advocating the existence of financial market fractals." One such academic is the physicist Didier Sornette, professor at ETH Zurich. In a paper he co-authored in 1996 ("Stock Market Crashes, Precursors and Replicas") Sornette stated,
It is intriguing that the log-periodic structures documented here bear some similarity with the "Elliott waves" of technical analysis ... A lot of effort has been developed in finance both by academic and trading institutions and more recently by physicists (using some of their statistical tools developed to deal with complex times series) to analyze past data to get information on the future. The 'Elliott wave' technique is probably the most famous in this field. We speculate that the "Elliott waves", so strongly rooted in the financial analysts' folklore, could be a signature of an underlying critical structure of the stock market.
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends and The Elliott Wave Theorist both give very specific and systematic ways to approach developing great reward/risk ratios for entering into a business contract with the marketplace, which is what every trader should be if properly and thoughtfully executed.
Glenn Neely, financial market analyst and author of the book Mastering Elliott Wave , studied the Elliott Wave Principle for years and used it to develop a forecasting method by expanding on the concepts Elliott created in the 1930s.
Researchers at the Technical University of Crete found that using a neuro-fuzzy system based on the Elliott wave principle delivered returns between 9.14% and 39.05% higher than a buy-and-hold strategy when using a hypothetical 10,000 € portfolio.
Criticism
Benoit Mandelbrot, who developed mathematical models of market pricing based on fractal geometry, expressed caution about the validity of wave models:
But Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgment of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed.
Robert Prechter had previously stated that ideas in an article by Mandelbrot "originated with Ralph Nelson Elliott, who put them forth more comprehensively and more accurately with respect to real-world markets in his 1938 book The Wave Principle."
Critics warn the Wave Principle is too vague to be useful since practitioners cannot consistently identify the beginning or end of waves, resulting in forecasts prone to subjective revisions. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
Some analysts consider the Elliott Wave Principle as too dated to be applicable in today's markets, as explained by market analyst Glenn Neely:
Elliott wave was an incredible discovery for its time. But, as technologies, governments, economies, and social systems have changed, the behavior of people has also. These changes have affected the wave patterns R.N. Elliott discovered. Consequently, strict application of orthodox Elliott wave concepts to current day markets skews forecasting accuracy. Markets have evolved, but Elliott has not.
See also
Nine-month-old support line becomes crucial for Brent oil bearsBrent oil sellers cheer a clear downside break of 200-DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-October upside around 13-day low. While bearish MACD signals and descending RSI line, not oversold, favor the commodity sellers, an upward sloping trend line from March 23, around $68.70, is the key for the quote’s further downside. Should the commodity bears drop below $68.70, the 78.6% Fibo. and August month’s low, respectively near $66.20 and $65.10, will return to the charts before directing the British energy benchmark towards March’s low of $60.44.
Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the support-turned-resistance confluence around $73.50 will aim for a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $76.70 and then to July’s swing high near $78.50. In a case where Brent oil buyers manage to cross the $78.50 mark, the $80.00 psychological magnet and $82.80 will act as buffers during the run-up targeting the yearly peak of $86.60. To sum up, Brent oil bears tighten the grip but the ball may slip if the trend line support holds.
12OCT2021Global markets (Last Session):
🔴 US markets closed low near lowest point of the day. Dow/Nasdaq/SPX lost nearly 0.75% in a high volatile session
🟢 European markets had weak opening but managed to close marginally higher closing near highest point of the day
🔴 US 10YR yield cooling of today to 1.612 level. DXY rose high to 94.36 mark. Brent crude rose by 1.33% to 83.66.
Indian Indices Last Session:
🟢 #Nifty made high of 18059 before profit booking kicked in. Managed to close 0.42% higher. Highest closing near ATH.
🟢 #BankNifty made ATH of 38569 in a strong session. Second half seen some profit booking to close with +445(1.18%) high.
🟢 FII's were net seller of 2340+ cr ignoring option figures which could be for hedging. DII were net sellers of 373 cr.
Technicals:
🟢 Nifty RSIStairs has turned overbought in all timeframes D/W/M. D(67.28), W(76.46), M(80.12) & ADX D(37.59). #Caution
🟢 Nifty trading above all the major moving averages 20/50/100 in D/W time frame. 20DEMA 17636. Time to remain cautious
🟠 With quarterly results ahead, market may not be in hurry to correct anytime soon. May consolidate for another week
🔴 Good results are already priced in the market and hence #Nifty trading ATH. Any weak result may give TCS kind reaction.
🟢 Till some major levels are broken DCB #Nifty (17275-17433) and #BankNifty(37765) trend & momentum in favor of bulls.
🟢 #BankNifty RSI has given a breakout above 60. Banking stocks likely to do well this quarter. Expect BO. 20DEMA 37579
Global markets (Morning Cues @08.30 AM):
🔴 US & Europe futures trading marginally lower. Cues bearish. Need to wait for a day to get the direction for the week.
🔴 Asian markets trading lower. SGX trading down by 90 points indicating lower opening in the Indian benchmark indices
Intraday Index Futures Levels
🔴 IDX Levels adjusted to expected gap down. All TF bullish. Global cues negative. #ParticipantData of FII bearish.
🟠 #Nifty Fut 17618/17690/17743/17838-17995/18025/18053/18105. RDX Score- 15M(+1*)/75M(+3*)/1D(+5*)/1W(+6*) #Cautious
🟠 #BankNifty 37764/37957/38040/38175-38499/38569/38671/38775. RDX Score- 15M(+2*)/75M(+4*)/1D(+4*)/1W(+5*) #Cautious
#MarketOutlook #TradePlan #PreOpenUpdate #IndexFutLevels (View all levels only at 15M candle closing basis)
Intraday Index Trade Plan
🔴 #Nifty trading & sustaining below 17885 on 15 MCB will move lower. One need to wait for breakout and then take entry.
News And Additional Data:
🔴 Investors worry about the fear of rising crude & commodity prices, inflation, proposed tax hike & tapering, Evergrande.
🔴 Avoid buy on dips. Rising commodity prices is concerning. Even though all looks well, valuations doesn't justify. Cautious.
07OCT2021Global markets (Last Session):
🟢 US markets opened lower but recovered 1.5-1.75% sharply from day low to close higher near highest point of the day.
🟢 European markets opened lower & went down by 2-2.25%. But later recovered in second half to close with 1-1.5% loss.
🟠 US 10YR yield closed lower -0.33%. DXY rose to 94.23 mark. Crude oil eased off by 2.08% to close near 80.82 levels.
News And Additional Data:
🔴 Investors worry about rising crude and commodity prices, inflation, proposed tax hike & tapering, Evergrande crisis.
🟢 Indian equity markets have total disconnect with the global markets & have outperformed its global peers by miles
Indian Indices Last Session:
🟢 #Nifty opened gap up but seen consistent selling pressure. Towards the end, #Nifty closed near day low with 1% loss.
🟢 #BankNifty had a gap up too but closed near the day low, due to consistent profit booking at higher levels near 38117.
🔴 #Short buildup seen in #Nifty with PV breakout below PDL, Both indices had weak closng near the lowest point of day.
🔴 FII's were net seller of 2575+ cr ignoring option figures which could be for hedging. DII were net sellers of 998 cr.
Technicals:
🟢 Nifty RSIStairs cooled off in daily TF but it remains overbought in W/M. D(57.00), W(73.80), M(79.06) & ADX D(38.91)
🟢 #Nifty trading above all the major moving averages 20/50/100 in D/W time frame. 20 DEMA 17542. #BearishBeltHold daily.
🟢 #BankNifty trading above all the major averages 20/50/200 DEMA. 20 DEMA at 37402. Will turn weak below next LOC 37249.
🟠 With quarterly results ahead, market may not be in hurry to correct anytime soon. May consolidate for first 2 weeks.
🔵 Till some major levels are broken DCB #Nifty (17275-17350) and #BankNifty(37249) trend and momentum in favor of bulls.
Global markets (Morning Cues @07.45 AM):
🟢 Asian markets trading higher. SGX trading up by 135 points indicating higher opening in the Indian benchmark indices
🟢 US & Europe futures trading 0.5% higher after a volatile previous session. Rising commodity price remains a concern.
Intraday Index Futures Levels
🟢 IDX Levels adjusted to expected gap up. Lower TF bearish but basis the higher TF score & global cues bias bullish.
🟢 #Nifty Fut 17505/17556/17618/17640-17743/17792/17864/17905. RDX Score- 15M(-7*)/75M(+2*)/1D(+2*)/1W(+6*) #Bullish
🟢 #BankNifty 37185/37375/37525/37749-37764/37913/38048/38173. RDX Score- 15M(-6*)/75M(+2*)/1D(+3*)/1W(+4*) #Bullish
#MarketOutlook #TradePlan #PreOpenUpdate #IndexFutLevels (View all levels only at 15M candle closing basis)
Intraday Index Trade Plan
🟢 PCR 0.59. Shorts created yesterday will be on pressure today after seeing strong global markets. Expect #Shortcover
🟢 #Nifty trading & sustaining above 17743 on 15 MCB will move higher. One can adapt buy on dips strategy in expiry day.
🟡 Adjustment: Avg yesterday 17650 Straddle with 17750/17800 #Straddle when spot near BEP 17775. Will adjust more later.
05OCT2021Global markets (Last Session):
🔴 Tech driven sell off dragged the wall street. US markets opened flat but faced sustained selling to close 1-2% lower.
🔴 European markets recovered from early morning losses but pared the recoery after US market opoen and closed lower.
🔴 US 10YR yield rose 1.16%. DXY fell to 93.77 mark. Crude oil shoots up 3% after OPEC decides gradual production cut.
News And Additional Data:
🔴 Investors worry in the fear of rising commodity prices, rising inflation, proposed tax hike & tapering, evergrande.
🟠 Indian markets has complete disconnect with global markets & have outperformed its peers. Due for a profit booking.
🔴 Weak global cues could put some pressure on overbought markets. Crude > 80 is a major concern for emerging economy
Indian Indices Last Session:
🟢 #Nifty opened gap up sustained above 17618 and closed near high with 1% gain with volumes above 20 day SMA average.
🟢 #BankNifty opened gap down, but recovered shapely to close above 20 DEMA in a highly volatile session with 0.5% loss.
🟢 FII's were net buyer of 100+ crs excluding option figures which could be for hedging. DII were net buyers of 228+ cr.
Nifty 50 Technicals:
🟡 Nifty RSIStairs cooled off in daily TF but it remains overbought in W/M. D(64.00), W(74.55), M(79.39) & ADX D(40.53)
🟢 #Nifty trading above all the major moving averages 20/50/100 in D/W time frame. Took support near the 20 DEMA 17503.
🔴 #Nifty broken down of the two months rising channel on daily/75M charts. Till #Nifty regains 17801 can see weakness.
🔴 With quarterly results ahead, market may not be in hurry to correct anytime soon. May consolidate for first 2 weeks.
Global markets (Morning Cues @08.30 AM):
🔴 Asian markets trading lower. SGX trading 100 point lower indicating a -ve opening in the Indian benchmark indices
🟠 US & Europe futures trading flat after strong sell off in previious session. Rising commodity price is is a concern
Intraday Index Futures Levels
🟢 #Nifty Fut 17438/17507/17607/17653-17789/17821/17905/17935. RDX Score- 15M(+2*)/75M(-1*)/1D(4*)/1W(6*) #Bearish
🟢 #BankNifty 37025/37249/37396/37585-37855/37913/38048/38173. RDX Score- 15M(+3*)/75M(-1*)/1D(3*)/1W(4*) #Bearish
#MarketOutlook #TradePlan #PreOpenUpdate #IndexFutLevels #01OCT2021 (View all levels only at 15M candle closing basis)
Intraday Index Trade Plan
🔴 #Nifty trading & sustaining below 17567 15 MCB will extend the weakness. Bullish only above 17743 on HCB else avoid.
🟡 Sell #Intraday straddle at opening for IV crush. After a gap down if fall halts can give big gains in the #Intraday
🔴 #BankNifty below 37375 15MCB can see further selling. it has taken support 3-4 times near 37375. This time can break.
🔴 75M TF charts score -1, & we may open negative, so can create #BearishBrokenWingStraddle (-2x ATM CE, -1x ATM/OTM PE)
Brent Oil Future - Very Smokey ! 90 soon ?Yea yea, I know Oil is most manipulated commodity on the planet.
But amidst the super consolidation worldwide, the most suppressed commodity is oil, and the hurricane supply chain destruction will annihilate the supply.
We should see sharp rise in Brent Oil futures in coming days. It’s inevitable.
I have given a range of targets from moderate to aggressive. In any version, Oil is touching sky.
This is just a chart pattern discussion. Please trade your hard-earned money on advice of a registered stock market expert. I am a newbie trader :)
NMDC: Short term & Mid term view- BullishTarget given by using patterns. Indicators are showing bullish signals on weekly chart and Daily MACD crossover may happen on upcoming days. Be ready for the next move on upside. Stoploss as per your risk. Apart from technical Iron and coal prices are multiyear high so can expect a good quarter on fundamental side.
Vijayaraghavan.K,
Kovilpatti,Tuticorin dist.
SUNTV: Short term & Mid term view- BullishMonthly MACD crossover happened but the stock price not reacted and all my indicators are showing bullish on this stock. Daily MACD crossover also may happen on upcoming days. ADX trend is getting strong but price not moving much. It can shoot up on upcoming days. Price may move more than the target levels bcaz of the bullish signals in monthly chart.
Vijayaraghavan.K,
Kovilpatti,Tuticorin dist.
CESC : MID term view- BullishIt breakout the channel and formed cup and handle pattern . All indicators are bullish Monthly MACD crossover may happen upcoming months. Share split also may approved on upcoming AGM. These parameters may help to reach the target levels.
Vijayaraghavan.K,
Kovilpatti, Tuticorin Dist.
Rain Industries: On verge of BreakoutAll the technical indicators,chart patterns,momentum indicators,price action, commodity price increase are all the factors culminating to bet on rain industries.
The commodity bull run will increase the margins of the business.
Rounding bottom/Cup&handle pattern is in formation.
Respecting the trend line support and the momentum indicator,RSI>70 showing signs of good strength.
Volumes are continuously increasing.
One can start accumulating from these levels for targets of 230/280/300/340/400 with a stop loss of 155-160.
#TradeTheTrend#ThemeBasedPick#TechnicalPick#MultiBagger#MomentumPick
HIND ZINC LONGHere the zone has been tested multiple times , there is a false breakout in between although, the ascending trendline shows buyers are pushing in and the zone has also become weak.
Reason to go Long
Zone tested multiple times
Commodity Uptrend Cycle has pushed commodity and metal prices up
Expect a good upmove in the coming days one can take positions in it keeping risk management in perspective.
PLS DO LIKE THE ANALSIS!