SUZLON: CUP & HANDEL PATTERN FAILUREWe often follow conventional patterns. But Now a days it fails. Here you can see.
A chart pattern or price pattern is a pattern within a chart when prices are graphed. In stock and commodity markets trading, chart pattern studies play a large role during technical analysis. When data is plotted there is usually a pattern which naturally occurs and repeats over a period.
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Gold eases from record top, focus on $2,150, US NFPGold price snaps seven-day winning streak while retreating from the all-time high (ATH) of nearly $2,165 to $2,156 early Friday. In doing so, the precious metal portrays the consolidation of recent gains ahead of the all-important US employment details for February amid the overbought RSI (14) conditions. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullion still trades above the immediate resistance-turned-support, namely the previous record high marked in 2023 around $2,150. Hence, the XAUUSD sellers need validation from the US jobs report as well as the $2,150 to retake control. Following that, a quick fall toward the late December 2023 peak of around $2,090 and the $2,065-64 support zone can’t be ruled out. Even so, the commodity bears need to remain cautious unless the quote offers a daily closing beneath three-week-old rising support and the 100-SMA, respectively near $2,050 and $2,022.
On the flip side, the Gold buyers stay in the driver’s seat and can aim for a 10-month-old ascending resistance line, close to $2,185 by the press time, during further upside. Should the quote manage to ignore the RSI conditions and remain firmer past $2,185, the $2,200 round figure will act as an extra filter toward the north. It’s worth noting that the XAUUSD’s successful trading above $2,200 enables buyers to aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of its moves between 2018 and 2022, around $2,336.
Overall, Gold price remains on the bullish trend but a pullback appears imminent unless the scheduled data fail to inspire US Dollar’s rebound.
Gold Reversals: Capitalizing on Breakdowns of Previous Lower LowIn the volatile world of commodity trading, gold stands out as a prized asset with its unique dynamics and responsiveness to market shifts. Trading gold reversals requires a keen eye for patterns and a strategic approach. This article explores a potent strategy: identifying breakdowns of previous lower lows and leveraging substantial volume to initiate trades on the downside.
Gold's price movements often follow recognizable patterns, with reversals being a prominent feature. One such pattern involves the breakdown of previous lower lows, signaling a potential shift in momentum towards the downside. When coupled with a surge in trading volume, these breakdowns can present lucrative trading opportunities for astute investors.
To implement this strategy effectively, traders must first establish a framework for identifying lower lows and their subsequent breakdowns. Technical analysis tools such as trendlines, moving averages, and support/resistance levels can aid in this process. By pinpointing key levels where previous lows have formed, traders can anticipate potential reversal points.
Once a lower low is identified, attention turns to volume dynamics. Significant increases in trading volume accompanying the breakdown of a lower low suggest heightened market participation and conviction among traders. This surge in volume serves as a confirmation of the reversal, providing added confidence to traders looking to capitalize on downward price momentum.
Executing trades based on these signals requires discipline and risk management. Entry points should be carefully timed to coincide with the confirmation of the breakdown and the surge in volume. Stop-loss orders can help limit potential losses in case the trade does not unfold as anticipated, while profit targets should be set based on realistic expectations of price movement.
It's important for traders to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions. While this strategy can yield profitable opportunities, it also carries inherent risks. Monitoring key indicators and staying informed about macroeconomic factors influencing gold prices can enhance decision-making and improve trading outcomes.
In conclusion, trading gold reversals by identifying breakdowns of previous lower lows with strong volume represents a compelling strategy for navigating the intricacies of the precious metals market. By combining technical analysis with prudent risk management, traders can position themselves to capitalize on market shifts and achieve success in their trading endeavors.
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Breakout On D/W/M Chart - ISEC📊 Script: ISEC
📊 Sector: Stock/ Commodity Brokers
📊 Industry: Finance & Investments
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 Script is trading at upper band of BB and giving breakout of it.
📈 MACD is giving crossover .
📈 Double Moving Averages is giving crossover.
📈 Right now RSI is around 65.
📈 One can go for Swing Trade.
📈 Trendline Breakout on Daily chart.
📈 Rounding Bottom Breakout Soon on Weekly Chart.
📈 Rounding Bottom Breakout Soon on Monthly Chart.
⏱️ C.M.P 📑💰- 841
🟢 Target 🎯🏆 - 905
⚠️ Stoploss ☠️🚫 - 808
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
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Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
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Natural Gas is getting ready for 100% move on the upsideNatural Gas has fallen 60-70% from the upside
Now NG is near long term support which is coming around 110-120
One should not miss this opportunity to BUY
Also RSI is also near to its weekly support
It is double confirmation from price wise and also from Indicator wise.
We can expect prices to rise upto 220-240 levels.
YES, That's almost 100% from current prices.
Gold buyers attack 50-SMA with eyes on Fed MinutesGold price remains firmer for the fifth consecutive day while extending the previous week’s rebound from the 100-SMA within a nine-week-old bearish trend channel. In doing so, the XAUUSD buyers prod the 50-SMA upside hurdle while keeping eyes on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, up for publishing late Wednesday. Given the quote’s sustained rebound from the key SMA, backed by the upbeat RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals, the price is more likely to cross the immediate hurdle surrounding $2,030, which in turn will allow buyers to aim for the aforementioned channel’s top line of near $2,052. However, a clear rejection of the bearish chart pattern, via sustained trading past $2,052, will open doors for the metal’s run-up toward the monthly high of near $2,066 and then the late December peak of around $2,088.
Meanwhile, hawkish Fed Minutes could derail the latest recovery momentum of the Gold price and drag it back toward the $2,000 psychological magnet. Though, the 100-SMA and bottom line of the previously stated channel, respectively near $1,997 and $1,986, would challenge the XAUUSD bears afterward. Should the quote remain bearish past $1,986, the late December swing low of around $1,973 will act as the final defense for the buyers before directing prices toward the November 2023 bottom surrounding $1,931.
Overall, the Gold price is likely to remain firmer but the bearish chart pattern and looming threat to the commodity bulls from the FOMC Minutes challenges the hopes of witnessing more upside.
Market a head | NiftyThe Q3 results season is about to close and the NSE 200 Companies result summary came with a mixed outcome wherein 38% companies beat the estimate while 48% misses the same and the rest were in line.
Sectors in terms of earning estimates
🔸Auto, FMCG, banks & utilities sectors saw higher beats & in-line earnings
🔸Financial services (ex-banks & NBFCs), industrials (including commodity) & pharma sectors saw misses
🔸IT and FMCG sectors have seen in-line earnings
Indian market price to earnings is trading above the 3Y average of 24.7X at 26.2X. Meanwhile, the market Cap to revenue is trading at 2.4X. Investors are relatively neutral on the Indian market at the moment.
Next week, investors' attention will turn to the FOMC minutes release, with traders scrutinizing any insights on when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. Simultaneously, the flash S&P Global US PMIs will offer an assessment of this month's economic performance. Beyond the US, attention will extend to flash PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany, France, UK, Japan and India.
Previous few weeks: Were quite eventful for markets as we saw a lot of reversals from the lows to highs and vice versa.
Coming week: Market is still in range until there is a breakout above 22129 while the support zone now shift to the VWAP of 21865. The formation is in place is more or less called a time correction pattern "Ascending triangle". Thus, the price action will be seen only after the range is broken.
Natural Gas - How to trade on Monday
Please refer to my previous live market analysis on this commodity where recommended buy at 1.618. Plotted is my wonderful indicator Rekhi144 which shows it has made a solid base at this price and closed at around 1.65. You can vouch that it is still in bearish mode because of following reasons:
(i) There is imbalance in left and right shoulders.
(ii) price closed under 100 SMA and 200 SMA.
(iii) it will take around 5 hours on Monday for the price to come in balance.
(iv) Then at least 3 hours next for price to close above 1.618 and make right shoulder heavier than left shoulder.
Short term target 1.71.
Conclusion: For the simplicity of understanding of all of us; at 4:30 price should be above above 100 SMA with 18 SMA cutting 36 SMA from below. If this is not the situation, wait for the evening session. I will keep you posted about the same.
Disclaimer: I am not a registered analyst with any of the National/ International agency. This is only for the educational purposes. Please consult your financial advisor before making any decision. I will not be responsible of any of your profits or losses.
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RBK Bank 15 M Range BreakoutNSE:RBLBANK
Rang Bound : 15 Min time Frame
A range-bound market is where a financial asset like a commodity, stock, or a currency pair remains in a relatively tight range. Here you can observe the range.
Bookish knowledge: Generally it goes to wards current trend.
Reality: It will go towards either side after range breakout or breakdown
Ideal entry : above 264
target: 270-274
Reverse is true in case of breakdown.
Note: Trader should not enter inside the range.
Stop loss should not be more than 2% as it will give you room to reenter at same level in future.
SOLARINDS | Swing Trade📊 DETAILS
Sector: Commodity Chemicals
Mkt Cap: 62,218 cr
Solar Industries is one of the worlds leading manufactures bulk explosives, packaged explosives and initiating systems, which find applications in the mining, infrastructure and construction industries.
SIL also ventured into the defense segment in 2010 and diversified into manufacturing of propellants for missiles and rockets, warheads and warhead explosives.
TTM PE : 76.98 (High PE)
Sector PE : 137.26
Beta : 0.27
📚 INSIGHTS
Strong Performer
Stock with consistent financial performance, quality management, and strong technical momentum indicating good investor enthusiasm. Currently valued at Good to expensive valuation
12.27% away from 52 week high
Outperformer - Solar Industries India up by 9.06% v/s NIFTY 50 up by 3.12% in last 1 month
📈 FINANCIALS
Piotroski Score of 8/9 indicates Strong Financials
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only, and I'm not a SEBI registered analyst.
If you found this analysis helpful, I encourage you to like and share it. Your observations and comments are also welcomed below. Your support, likes, follows, and comments motivate me to consistently share valuable insights with you.
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Natural Gas - Live market coverage
Please refer to my earlier coverage on the commodity and read drawings on the chart itself, every thing will be crystal clear.
Disclaimer: I am not a Registered Analyst with any National/International Regulatory Agency. Please consult your financial advisor before making any decision. I will not be responsible for any of your profits/losses. This is only for educational purposes.
Let you grow. May! I follow you.
Religare Ready To Double In Next Few Months-The price has successfully retested the trendline support.
-Over the last 10 weeks, there has been a sideways consolidation pattern.
-Noteworthy volumes have been recorded in the past 2 weeks.
-Weekly candles exhibit lower wicks, suggesting increased demand.
-On the daily chart, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has crossed the 100 mark after a span of 4 months.
6.5-year consolidation period breakout with high volumeFundamental Highlights:
Market Capitalization: ₹37,020 crore
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 10.9
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): 26.6%
Return on Equity (ROE): 22.8%
3-year Sales/PAT Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): 19%, 6%
Technical Analysis:
Since October '17, the price has exhibited sideways movement.
A breakout has occurred this week, surpassing both trendline and horizontal resistance levels, accompanied by a notable increase in volumes.
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is displaying a bullish trend on the weekly chart.
Relative Strength (RS) is on the rise and is poised to turn bullish on the weekly timeframe soon.
Lloyds Engineering WorkGenerally Speaking , charts of the same commodity/ equity , tend to have similar pattern sequences which tend to repeat over & over again. They seem to favor certain behavior patterns
This is called as the Fractal Nature of Patterns!
Here in the case of Lloyds Engineering, we can see that the stock usually makes a symmetrical triangle, wears out all the weak holders, tests the patience of strong holders & then usually starts it upward journey.
The breakout looks strong associated with good volumes
Natural Gas
The problem with this commodity is low volume. There was no directional movement for the past.
But, now long term directional movement may come from the next week. For this crucial factors are:
1. Price Movement:
A.
2.22 was the level from where last swing started but it was created only by non US Countries. Now US Countries did not make any lower than this.
B.
Valid lower points are 2.124 and 2.015. Once these levels are completed, then only the circle will complete.
C.
As mentioned above, the low of the swing was made at 2.22 last time, the US (evening session) may like to go below this but it is not likely that it will go any lower that 2.015.
2. Time Movement.
I have marked three vertical candles on the chart
a. 1-22-24 11:31 AM
b. 1-23-24 5:15 AM
c. 1-23-24 10:59 PM
These candles are likely to form a trend line and then unidirectional upward movement for the next weeks to come.
So, Please wait for the candles till Tuesday and then the trend will automatically get cleared.
Will keep you posted.
Disclaimer: I am not a Registered Analyst with any National/International Regulatory Agency. Please consult your financial advisor before making any decision. I will not be responsible for any of your profits/losses. This is only for educational purposes.
Let you grow. May! I follow you.
Time to rotate from India PSU to Pharma for a 25% outperformance
If you're in the India PSU trade, they have run up significantly recently.
Even if they want to continue the rally, it is probably time for a weekly tf drawdown.
Pharma on the other hand has been rallying up.
I have rotated from PSU to Pharma. There is 25% upside in a few week timeframe.
Short Banks, long Pharma and Commodity based equity may be a good trade.
XAUUSD Gold on an Upward TrajectoryGold futures saw significant gains amid Middle East tensions, with XAU/USD reaching $2,062/oz. Despite a strong USD, the outlook remains bullish with potential resistance at $2,100.
Last Friday, Gold futures recorded their biggest single-session gain since mid-December, driven by concerns over wider-ranging tensions in the Middle East.
The yellow metal's gains were limited by the strength of the US dollar, which was partially offset by falling Treasury yields.
Meanwhile, the gold prices XAU/USD rose to the resistance level of $2,062 per ounce on Friday's session before closing the day trading stable around $2,048 per ounce. Despite its gains last week, it will remain down by 1% from the beginning of 2024. In the same performance, silver prices, which is the sister commodity of gold, rose to $23 per ounce. However, the price of the white metal suffered a weekly loss of 0.3%, in addition to its decline since the beginning of the year by 3%.
In general, investors have sought refuge in safe-haven assets as global financial markets monitored the situation in the Red Sea. Moreover, US and British forces launched airstrikes in Yemen in response to a Houthi rebel attack on ships in the Red Sea. Furthermore, while the world is closely watching the conflict in the Middle East, market analysts believe gold may pay more attention to inflation data in the coming weeks to determine what the US Federal Reserve will do next.
Recently, it was announced that the annual inflation rate in the United States of America rose unexpectedly to 3.4% in December. Historically, after that it was 3.1% and higher than market estimates of 3.2%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, was also stubborn, falling just 0.1 percentage point to 3.9%.
Concurrently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US currency's performance against a basket of other major currencies, rose to 102.41, from opening at 102.29. Obviously, the index witnessed one of the best starts to the year in nearly a decade. It has increased by 1% since the beginning of the year until now. As is known, the rise in the value of the dollar is bad for goods priced in dollars because it makes it more expensive for foreign investors to buy them.
And another factor affecting gold, US Treasury yields were mostly lower, with the 10-year bond yield falling to 3.95%. Also, the two-year bond yield fell below 4.14%, while the 30-year bond yield rose two basis points to 4.20%.
For other metals markets, copper futures fell to $3.7405 per pound. Moreover, Platinum futures settled at $909.00 an ounce and Palladium futures fell to $980.00 per ounce.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
Based on the performance on the daily chart above, the overall trend for the price of gold (XAU/USD) remains upward, and a real shift in the trend will not occur without a return to the support levels of $2000 and $1985 per ounce, respectively. As mentioned before, increasing global geopolitical tensions and central banks' increased purchases of gold alloys will continue to support the current upward trend for gold. Therefore, any decline in gold prices will present buying opportunities. The nearest resistance levels for the current trend are $2060, $2075, and $2100, respectively. Shortly, a decline in the U.S. dollar's price will accelerate the movement towards these peaks.
DM FOR SIGNALS
US Oil - How to trade on Monday
Presented on the chart are the price and time levels for US Oil. Time candle 1-8-24 10:30 AM
is the Super - Super Normal candle for Commodities and Indian Market as well any stock above this level is not likely to come down for the next at least week and any stock whose/commodity whose price is below this candle will remain bearish. So, please be careful of this candle.
Still have a question, please do not hesitate to ask, I am duty bound to answer your questions.
Disclaimer: I am not a Registered Analyst with any National/International Regulatory Agency. Please consult your financial advisor before making any decision. I will not be responsible for any of your profits/losses. This is only for educational purposes.
Let you grow. May! I follow you.