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Consistent Compounder - HH/HL PatternTCPL Packaging has been increasing EPS consistently for 7 quarters now, and the share price has shown a steady Higher High/Higher Low pattern. With Increasing revenue, there has been margin expansion as well - Killer combination. Price has taken support at 50 day EMA before as well, and Relative strength seems good. It will be interesting to see if the share can give another 60-70% leg up from recent low to 2000 levels - Upcoming Quarter results will be a good indication. Note : This is not an investment advice. This post is meant for educational purpose only. Kindly do your own due diligence before investing.
NSE:TCPLPACKLong
by Aayush_Rungta
7
Last call for the fall of Sensex?60652 resistance level can hold this down long term. Could ladder up to 61319 final hold level or 60862 could be the final low . This could be the beginning of bear market for Sensex if it breaks the 52804 support level . We might fall more than 20% or even more within 4 to 5 months depending on the volatility of the trader's decision or news spoiling their emotion towards a recession or even 41702 level possible?. If we can gain 60652 level, we might be somewhat safe.
BSE:SENSEXShort
by The_7hunder6olt
Strong Support reached - 20% Bounce coming?Reliance has been trading in the range of 2250 and 2750 for a while now and has finally reached the price support region again. The formation of recent Doji in the market further confirm the indecisiveness in the market after the recent down move. A morning star pattern or a piercing pattern might further improve our confidence, with RSI bottoming out at 30 in weekly and MACD slowly turning bullish as well. It will be interesting to see if RIL slowly traces its way back to 2750 levels and that would be a 20% move from current levels. Not an investment reco, just for research purpose. Thanks for reading :)
NSE:RELIANCELong
by Aayush_Rungta
We are just 35% up from 2008 high To understand the Dollex, let us take a hypothetical situation. Assume that the Sensex was at 40,000 in January and has now grown to 50,000 in December. That is a phenomenal 25% appreciation in the Sensex and if you are an Indian investor you would be extremely happy. However, if you are a foreign portfolio investor or FPI, you also worry about the rupee/dollar exchange rate. That is because, for the foreign investor to realize the 25% gains on the Nifty, the rupee must have remained stable. However, if during this period the rupee had depreciated by 15% from Rs.70/$ to Rs.80.50/$, then the returns of the foreign investor would have been substantially lower. This currency impact is captured by the Dollex. Now let us use this example to understand what is Dollex? The Dollex captures these dollar-adjusted returns. Let us break up the above illustration. In the above case, Sensex returns would be 25% {(50,000-40,000) / 40,000}. That is quite straight forward and that is the returns that your Sensex would show. Here is how Dollex would be calculated. Dollar infusion in January = 40,000/70 = $571.43. At the time of redemption, it is 50,000/80.50 =$621.12. In this case, the Dollex Returns would be 621.12/571.43 = 8.7%. That is a tad shocking. How did 25% returns become just 8.7%? That is because during this interim period, the rupee had depreciated by 15% resulting in the dollar returns reducing substantially. This dollar impact is captured by the Dollex. We shall look at the S&P BSE Dollex 30 in greater detail.
BSE:DOLLEX30Education
by PrasantaP
Asian Paints - Buy on Dips OR Wealth Erosion?Asian Paints has been a consistent compounder in Indian decorative paints Industry. With increasing Crude Oil volatility expectation from February due to Russia's decision to not sell Crude Oil to countries respecting EU's $60 price cap, the share has corrected from 3600 to 2800 levels ~ 22% The recent earnings report further accentuated the concerns of investors, with slowing sales growth, but rising Operating Margins nonetheless. As per the management, it was a result of prolonged monsoon in October, which caused a tepid festive season sale. The rising competition in Paints industry is not oblivious to anyone either, Grasim, JSW have major capex commitments. Will this lead to margins erosion, which when combined with slow Revenue growth, is a recipe for Wealth Erosion? or will Asian Paints continue to enjoy super normal profits from its yet undisturbed monopoly? On the Technical side, the share has come back to 140 day EMA on weekly, which has been an undefeated support zone since 2009. However, the same trend was also observed for Berger Paints with 100 day EMA, but we recently saw how it not only broke it clearly, but has been trading below it for around 1 year now. It will be very interesting to see if Asian Paints can bounce from here, but in my opinion, there aren't many/any positive triggers for the market side, apart from a shining decade long outperformance record of wealth creation. At a PE of 70 and 10 Year Median PE of 58, it seems like the worst is yet to come. However, my guess is as good as yours. I believe it might be a good time to take a step back, and reconsider our blind faith in perceived bluechip companies with unsustainable PE levels and single digit earnings growth, like Pidilite as well. I do not intend to attract any criticism, and would like to clarify that it is my personal opinion, and I can be completely wrong at it. As a fellow swimmer in the tides of the markets, I have learnt that one can never be too cautious, only too overconfident.
NSE:ASIANPAINT
by Aayush_Rungta
Berger Paints - at Fair Valuation? Berger Paints is 2nd biggest player in Indian Paints Industry after Asian Paints, with great penetration in Industrial paints segment. The industry has been facing pressure from rising competition with entry of other players like Grasim. As a result of missing latest quarter estimates, the share has corrected from ATH of 872 to 580 levels ~ 35% down. I believe that Berger paints has a very strong moat, which cannot be easily replaced by a new entrant, although it might cause short term headwinds in growth. Since 2009, it is the first time that the share has touched 200 EMA levels in weekly chart. A breakout from the short term downward trendline can lead to slow up-move towards 800 levels again. 550 is a key support, the share is already at S3 Fibonacci level. It will be interesting to see if this correction deepens like in the case of Divis labs, or bounces back.
NSE:BERGEPAINTLong
by Aayush_Rungta