We are just 35% up from 2008 high To understand the Dollex, let us take a hypothetical situation. Assume that the Sensex was at 40,000 in January and has now grown to 50,000 in December. That is a phenomenal 25% appreciation in the Sensex and if you are an Indian investor you would be extremely happy. However, if you are a foreign portfolio investor or FPI, you also worry about the rupee/dollar exchange rate. That is because, for the foreign investor to realize the 25% gains on the Nifty, the rupee must have remained stable. However, if during this period the rupee had depreciated by 15% from Rs.70/$ to Rs.80.50/$, then the returns of the foreign investor would have been substantially lower. This currency impact is captured by the Dollex.
Now let us use this example to understand what is Dollex? The Dollex captures these dollar-adjusted returns. Let us break up the above illustration. In the above case, Sensex returns would be 25% {(50,000-40,000) / 40,000}. That is quite straight forward and that is the returns that your Sensex would show. Here is how Dollex would be calculated. Dollar infusion in January = 40,000/70 = $571.43. At the time of redemption, it is 50,000/80.50 =$621.12. In this case, the Dollex Returns would be 621.12/571.43 = 8.7%. That is a tad shocking. How did 25% returns become just 8.7%? That is because during this interim period, the rupee had depreciated by 15% resulting in the dollar returns reducing substantially. This dollar impact is captured by the Dollex. We shall look at the S&P BSE Dollex 30 in greater detail.
Sensex
Asian Paints - Buy on Dips OR Wealth Erosion?Asian Paints has been a consistent compounder in Indian decorative paints Industry. With increasing Crude Oil volatility expectation from February due to Russia's decision to not sell Crude Oil to countries respecting EU's $60 price cap, the share has corrected from 3600 to 2800 levels ~ 22%
The recent earnings report further accentuated the concerns of investors, with slowing sales growth, but rising Operating Margins nonetheless. As per the management, it was a result of prolonged monsoon in October, which caused a tepid festive season sale.
The rising competition in Paints industry is not oblivious to anyone either, Grasim, JSW have major capex commitments. Will this lead to margins erosion, which when combined with slow Revenue growth, is a recipe for Wealth Erosion? or will Asian Paints continue to enjoy super normal profits from its yet undisturbed monopoly?
On the Technical side, the share has come back to 140 day EMA on weekly, which has been an undefeated support zone since 2009. However, the same trend was also observed for Berger Paints with 100 day EMA, but we recently saw how it not only broke it clearly, but has been trading below it for around 1 year now.
It will be very interesting to see if Asian Paints can bounce from here, but in my opinion, there aren't many/any positive triggers for the market side, apart from a shining decade long outperformance record of wealth creation. At a PE of 70 and 10 Year Median PE of 58, it seems like the worst is yet to come. However, my guess is as good as yours. I believe it might be a good time to take a step back, and reconsider our blind faith in perceived bluechip companies with unsustainable PE levels and single digit earnings growth, like Pidilite as well.
I do not intend to attract any criticism, and would like to clarify that it is my personal opinion, and I can be completely wrong at it. As a fellow swimmer in the tides of the markets, I have learnt that one can never be too cautious, only too overconfident.
Berger Paints - at Fair Valuation? Berger Paints is 2nd biggest player in Indian Paints Industry after Asian Paints, with great penetration in Industrial paints segment.
The industry has been facing pressure from rising competition with entry of other players like Grasim.
As a result of missing latest quarter estimates, the share has corrected from ATH of 872 to 580 levels ~ 35% down.
I believe that Berger paints has a very strong moat, which cannot be easily replaced by a new entrant, although it might cause short term headwinds in growth.
Since 2009, it is the first time that the share has touched 200 EMA levels in weekly chart.
A breakout from the short term downward trendline can lead to slow up-move towards 800 levels again.
550 is a key support, the share is already at S3 Fibonacci level. It will be interesting to see if this correction deepens like in the case of Divis labs, or bounces back.
#Banknifty with India Best Trader's with Tool👑#We Make Only Profit.
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RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai laken wo Backup bhi ready kr rhe hai take 2023 kese wjh se krab bhi jaye to economy
pe zada Farak na pade..
#Banknifty with India Best Trader's with Tool👑#We Make Only Profit.
#HDFCBANK #BANKNIFTY #NIFTY50 #NIFTY #SENSEX #TATA
RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai laken wo Backup bhi ready kr rhe hai take 2023 kese wjh se krab bhi jaye to economy
pe zada Farak na pade..
#Banknifty With ISL India Best Intraday Tool#We Make Only Profit.
#HDFCBANK #BANKNIFTY #NIFTY50 #NIFTY #SENSEX #TATA
RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai laken wo Backup bhi ready kr rhe hai take 2023 kese wjh se krab bhi jaye to economy
pe zada Farak na pade..
#Banknifty For Tomorrow 12 Dec 2022 With ISL#We Make Only Profit.
#HDFCBANK #BANKNIFTY #NIFTY50 #NIFTY #SENSEX #TATA
RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai laken wo Backup bhi ready kr rhe hai take 2023 kese wjh se krab bhi jaye to economy
pe zada Farak na pade..
BankNifty Trade Setup 22/11/22As BankNifty Continusally trading in Range from few days,chances of trending market may possible,if banknifty slips below 42200 ,go for Short with last swing as Stoploss. On upper Side also Banknifty facing resistance so if price get rejection from upper area as shown in chart then try 1/3rd quantity for sell and remaining add when it start to trade below 42200.
markets are dynamic as alwaysTHE chart pattern IS FORMING OF CUP AND HANDLE WITH A POTENTIAL BREAKING OUT
and the rsi divergence is suggesting A SHORT TERM TOP BEING MADE AND WAVE THEORY IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE RSI DIVERGENCE
as of now i am little CAUTIOUS AND OPEN FOR BOTH SIDES
but my view is BULLISH UPTO 10 TO 15 NOV 2022
CONFIRMATION OF A UPTREND WILL COME AROUND 10 TO 11 OCT
AS PER MY TIME CYCLE THEORY
BSE:SENSEX
HAL - Do Not Miss - VCP Defence Sector in India is in a sweet spot, with production and exports set to double in 3-4 years as per GOI's targets.
HAL is the juggernaut in this space, and while the expansion will primarily benefit Private players, the assembly work for the final piece will be monitored by HAL mostly.
I strongly believe that the technical setup and fundamental outlook seems very well poised to snowball it into 3k levels soon.
Once the previous high is breached, and an upcoming earnings trigger, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Cheers! Let me know what you think in the comments below, and follow for similar content and regular updates.
Again, only for educational purposes. Thanks for reading! :)
Delta Corp - VCP Pattern forming?Leading company in casino business.
Good Q2, with visibility of cash flows ahead.
Risks from an impending court matter over Daman casino.
Good capex plans for future to start another Vessel by Q3 of next FY.
Volumes are tightly squeezed in the right part of the pivot forming area, and an inside candle, or a breakout candle can be a good entry point, as even a small volume thrust can cause prices to move upward after long dry volume spell.
All Cargo - VCP All Cargo Logistics is India's leading logistics solution provider.
If price sustains above neckline, it can trigger a fresh rally.
There are looming risks from logistics slowdown from recession, which is evident from the Delhivery share price debacle recently.
However, the technical set up is strong, and the company has shown strong growth at a relatively attractive PE Ratio of 10.
HFCL - Volume Contraction PatternHFCL is one of the leading companies in optics fiber manufacturing for 5g sector in India.
The company recently got approval for PLI schemes worth 652 crore as well.
Once price breaks above the neckline, we can expect fresh rally.
There is good volume spike as well on closing day, and it will be interesting to see if smart money inflow continues.