Nifty May be a Nasha, but Sensex is the Sober Reality!Attached: BSE Sensex Daily Chart as of 25th April 2023
Yes you read the Title of this Post correct, to put it simply:
Nifty is Deceptive but the Sensex is Truthful
In the above BSE Sensex 30 Chart,
we see that Price is facing Resistance at the Channel Trend Line drawn from the December 2022 High. There are presently 3 touch points already for the Channel and today marks the 4th touch point. So the Trend Down is still maintained going by this and NO Valid Breakout has taken place.
While if I look at NSE Nifty 50 Chart,
I cannot spot any such Channel that connects the Highs to give such a clean picture like the Sensex is currently giving us.
So the Question is:
Nifty or Sensex: Which Stock Index Should You Trust?
My Answer:
Trust the Truthful Sensex
Sensexanalysis
Last call for the fall of Sensex?60652 resistance level can hold this down long term. Could ladder up to 61319 final hold level or 60862 could be the final low . This could be the beginning of bear market for Sensex if it breaks the 52804 support level . We might fall more than 20% or even more within 4 to 5 months depending on the volatility of the trader's decision or news spoiling their emotion towards a recession or even 41702 level possible?. If we can gain 60652 level, we might be somewhat safe.
markets are dynamic as alwaysTHE chart pattern IS FORMING OF CUP AND HANDLE WITH A POTENTIAL BREAKING OUT
and the rsi divergence is suggesting A SHORT TERM TOP BEING MADE AND WAVE THEORY IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE RSI DIVERGENCE
as of now i am little CAUTIOUS AND OPEN FOR BOTH SIDES
but my view is BULLISH UPTO 10 TO 15 NOV 2022
CONFIRMATION OF A UPTREND WILL COME AROUND 10 TO 11 OCT
AS PER MY TIME CYCLE THEORY
BSE:SENSEX
SENSEX SHORTSo here is an analysis of another index 'SENSEX'. Let us understand price action of SENSEX in detail! (OPEN THE CHART FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING)
Firstly, if you have a look at the second last (green) candle here, it is clear that this candle was not able to sustain above a major resistance line (yellow line).
Secondly, today the price shot up the major resistance line, but experienced selling pressure near its all time high (ATH) and wasn't able to sustain above the major resistance line. We can say that Sensex today gave a FAKEOUT (Fake breakout).
In addition to that, Sensex formed a bearish engulfing pattern which shows weakness ahead.
Talking about indicators, RSI is facing downward after showing weakness.
Sensex is travelling in the upper band of the Bollinger Band, and hence it is due for a correction. (I haven't applied bollinger bands here as it will mess up the chart and it would get difficult for you to understand. You can put bollinger bands yourself and check)
All this shows weakness in SENSEX, hence I would recommend being stock-specific
FOLLOW IF YOU LIKE THE ANALYSIS.
LIKE AND COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THIS. COMMENT IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBT ON THIS ANALYSIS.
THANKS
Long term pattern for Indian SensexThere is a very strong support for the BSE Sensex which has been successfully defended in multiple watershed points in Indian history
1) 1980, when Indira Gandhi came back to power. Mrs. Gandhi replaced a government which was seen as being more friendly towards US and corporates.
2) 1984, when Indira Gandhi was assassinated amid the Sikh extremist movement and retaliatory massacres.
3) 1988-89, at the Height of the Bofors scandal and when bear Cartel was at its most active.
4) 2003-04, when the bear market due to the Dot com bust and the Ketan Parekh scam bottomed out.
5) 2020 Corona pandemic induced sell off.
Interestingly this support was not tested fiercely in the great financial crisis of 2008-09. India in general was probably one of the best performing countries throughout the recession as Indian financial systems were still largely in government hands.
There is a resistance line which has so far successfully repelled two well known periods of excess. The Harshad Mehta rally tested it in 1992 and the broader emerging markets rally tested it in 2007. There is a possibility that the current rally will again test this line if it gets up too fast. As of now, the markets are modestly overpriced, but nowhere near historical excesses. If global cues are not bad, there is room to run for this rally.
ICICI Bank Coming to Buying ZoneICICI Bank is moving down towards its demand zone and trendline. Can look to buy around 356-350 and SL of 335-330 with the target of 370-380-390. Do watch price action and market trend before taking the trade.
Please Note - All the green lines mean the support zone/demand zone
and all the red lines mean the resistance zone/supply zone.
SENSEX Elliott Wave PerspectiveDo not ever Forget the content on all of our analysis are subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
Nothing on this video constitutes a personal recommendation. Seek independent financial advice from licensed professionals If you need it.
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