Silverlong
Weekly analysis of XAUUS/Gold with buy and sell scenarios...Gold has reached to Level 2 as we analysed few weeks back.
Gold has created a strong weekly momentum candle showing positive sentiment. But there is divergence with volume. Candle is strongest amongst last four weekly candles while volume is lowest. On daily time frame there are consecutive 5 buy candles. RSI is also over 80 and oversold All these brings a caution
So, price may take a pause or pull back to adjust pricing. Now we need to be cautious and plan for rangebound pull back.
1. Price has created higher highs in lower time frames and created micro structures.
2. Now price may pull back with some delivery change in lower time frames.
3. Still, we should be positive till delivery changes at 4H/1H TF.
4. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
5. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (4H/1h/15m) at FVG zone.
6. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high RnR trade scenario.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
SILVER (XAGUSD) – Weekly Projection Analysis (24-01-26)
Overall Bias: 🔥 Strong Bullish
🔹 Market Structure
Price is clearly inside a bullish channel
Previous trendline break → clean retest
Retest aligns perfectly with 50% Fibonacci level
👉 This is a high-probability continuation zone
🔹 Key Levels
Support S2: ~96
Support S1: ~99–100
Entry Zone: Broken trendline + 50% Fibo (around 100)
Stop Loss: Below ~96 (structure protection)
Resistance R1: ~112–114
Target Zone: 115 – 120+ (New ATH zone) 🚀
🔹 Candle Strength
Strong bullish impulse candle confirms buyers’ dominance
No major rejection wick → momentum intact
🔹 Projection Logic
Trend continuation inside channel
Higher highs & higher lows
Retest confirmation + momentum breakout = buy-on-dips strategy
🧠 Trading Plan Summary
✅ Buy on retracement
✅ SL below structure
✅ Partial booking near R1
✅ Hold runner for ATH expansion
$AG setting up for a rip your face off rally #tothemoonFirst Majestic is a hated stock as of now, it also has the largest short position in the entire silver miners listed in NYSE. Bad sentiments and frustrated investors is a great combination to identify when a sector bottoms.
Looking at the price action as of now, especially from $4.5 to $7.8 it looks like a strong bullish reversal. Also this is a institution move, smart money is buying silently. Also with silver heading to new highs, which means that silver miners are turning healthy. Many silver miners are making decent margins already around 15-20% OPM, the higher silver prices go the more Free Cash Flow will be generated which will directly impact bottom line. And, the valuations are dirt cheap.
Reasons why like like First Majestic :
- Acquired Gatos Silver recently, by this deal the net AISC improves, i feel it should be around $20-18. Before acquisition NYSE:AG AISC was $25, Gatos Silver being a low cost producer should now cumulatively bring the AISC down.
- They also announced a share repurchase program which is a positive.
- They are the only silver miner with a Mint capacity, First Mint Store. Unlike other mints, which are either government-owned or privately held. Good addition to capture the entire value chain.
Well at current valuation and where the silver price is at its hard for me to see the downside. So i may be biased. I will only exit this scrip if i see Silver go below $23. That is my exit criteria.
Disclaimer : This analysis is purely for education. As i am invested in this scrip I may be biased. Don't take this as an investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before any speculative investments.
SILVER - HEALTHY CONSOLIDATION LONGSSilver doing a healthy consolidation - momentum intact.
very strong support for momentum to continue is $90, belov that momentum vill be lost.
small resistance at $93.50
major resistance at $95.50 - $96
above $96 v should likely test 3digits - $100.
above that vill be a price discovery one can trail at ST 1.5 on 75m chart.
XAGUSD – Clean Rejection From Discount Zone With Upside Silver reacted perfectly from a refined discount zone after a controlled pullback. The immediate rejection and push back above micro structure levels indicate bullish absorption and renewed momentum.
This reaction aligns with the broader HTF bullish narrative, suggesting price may continue expanding toward upside inefficiencies if structure holds.
Bullish Path:
• Tap into refined discount zone
• Strong rejection wick + recovery
• LTF structure shift confirming accumulation
• Expansion toward next HTF imbalance / liquidity pocket above
Bullish in SILVERM1!Not sure if you have noticed this pattern in the 4h timeframe. It has perfectly formed an cup and handle. Tried breaking the handle. I am bullish in this keeping my target as 162000. Might hault for a day or two between 159200 - 160000 though. Happy to learn from others on this view.
Bullish — Silver bounce expected toward ₹1,59,000 and ₹1,72,000 Silver Futures (SILVERZ2025 – 4H Chart) Technical Outlook
Elliott Wave Structure & Current Setup
Silver is currently trading in Wave 4, and the corrective phase appears to be complete.
Silver has completed its Wave 4 correction and has started a new impulsive leg (Wave 5).
A breakout above ₹1,50,000 has confirmed bullish momentum, supported by RSI and MACD signals.
📈 Upside Targets:
₹1,59,000 – first resistance / 6% upside
₹1,72,000 – extended target / 13.5% upside
⚙️ Supports:
₹1,49,000 – near breakout retest zone
₹1,44,000 – wave 4 base, invalidation below this level
Silver Re Entry After booking partial profits at 12R, I am re-entering the MCX:SILVERM1! trade with a fresh position. The setup continues to align with my trend-following and risk parameters, and the market structure supports further upside potential.
Partial exit: 12R booked ✅
New entry: Initiated as per strategy rules
Risk management: Strict stop in place, position sizing aligned with capital
Targets: Following original R-multiple framework
Staying disciplined and letting the trade run with the trend.
Silver – Riding the WaveMCX:SILVERMIC1! is trending strong, and we are already surfing at 5R.
Our system’s strength lies in catching mean reversals early and riding the momentum that follows.
Disciplined risk, precise trailing, no second-guessing.
This approach has delivered consistent double-digit “R” trades in the past.
Now, the trend is in motion — and we stay with it as long as it runs.
FRESNILLO setting up for its redemption run Fresnillo is an interesting chart. Looks like a major bottom has set in. If by any chance price goes back to 460-455 level, I will not miss the opportunity to buy. If silver moves up towards $60-70 zone. This scrip will hit a home run. Onwards and Upwards.
Stoploss can be placed at 450.
Silver Going Parabolic Silver tried to break out of the horizontal range thrice (marked on chart), but was finally successful only in its third attempt on 6th Jan 2025 and did a retest too.
Post 6th Jan 2025, Silver has been in uptrend keeping up with the Gold in terms of trajectory.
It looks like there is more room upwards as geopolitical events (Tariffs, trade wars etc) shape coming months and uncertainty remains high.
Lets see how it plays out.
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