Weekly Candle Closes High | Prioritise Buying on Pullback to Sup🟡 XAU/USD – 22/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Quick Overview
Last week, gold closed around 3,685, paving the way for further advancement and a new ATH.
After the FED cut 25bps, Powell's 'brake' remarks slowed the rise, but the larger trend remains bullish.
This morning, prices surged to 3,697.xx, now slightly adjusting around 3,692 – 3,690 → a sensible strategy: wait for a pullback to continue Buying.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: The gold voyage still heads North, Buying remains the main choice, but wait for a pullback to board.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone):
Thin support: ~3,698 (recently broken old range top).
OB Dock: 3,687 – 3,690.
FVG Dock: 3,672 – 3,676 (liquidity check on deep pullback).
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone):
3,714 – 3,720 (supply cluster / old ATH – likely to react).
Price Structure:
Continuous BoS series, price breaks short-term up channel and creates higher highs → bullish remains the main trend.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Plan (before US session)
✅ Buy (trend priority)
Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,698 – 3,701
SL: 3,688
TP: 3,706 – 3,714 – 3,720+
Buy Zone 2 (OB)
Entry: 3,687 – 3,690
SL: 3,680
TP: 3,698 – 3,706 – 3,714 – 3,72x
Buy Zone 3 (FVG)
Entry: 3,672 – 3,676
SL: 3,664
TP: 3,687 – 3,706 – 3,714
⚡ Sell (only scalp when overbought)
Sell Zone (ATH test)
Entry: 3,740 – 3,738
SL: 3,750
TP: 3,730 – 3,690 – 3,695
Captain’s Note ⚓
“The new week kicks off with a high-closing candle, the gold vessel continues its bullish course. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,690 – 3,672) is a safe anchorage for the crew to watch for Buys. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,714 – 3,720) is the wave crest where winds may rise, suitable for Quick Boarding 🚤 short scalps. Before the US session, the seas might get choppy – hold the helm tight and manage volume wisely.”
SMC
ETHUSD 2.5R sell side trade scenarioETHUSD is forming sell side trades as current bias and draw on liquidity both are at down side. Price has also left SIBIs to attract price upside for a while and then return back to target. In weekend price may have low volatility and trade possibly generate on Monday or later.
1. There is a daily time frame bearish FVG.
2. There is bearish FVG in 4H TF. Now price is approaching it slowly.
3. These FVGs are forming inside OTE zone.
4. Order flow is bearish. And draw on liquidity is also at downside.
5. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVGs and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
6. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF (5m,1m) at FVG zone.
7. BTC is also forming similar scenario.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and 2.5R trade scenario.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
BTCUSD 3R Sell side trade BTCUSD is forming sell side trade as current bias and draw on liquidity both are at down side. Price has also left SIBIs to attract price upside for a while and then return back to target. In weekend price may have low volatility and trade possibly generate on Monday or later.
1. There is a 4H time frame bearish FVG.
2. There is bearish FVG in 1H and 30m overlapping with 4H FVG. Now price is approaching it slowly.
3. These FVGs are forming inside Fib golden zone.
4. Order flow is bearish. And draw on liquidity is also at downside.
5. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVGs and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
6. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF (5m,1m) at FVG zone.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and 3R trade scenario.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
XAGUSD Step-by-step entry plan for XAGUSD
1. We have our Daily Point of Interest (POI)
- On the daily a zone that contains:
* a fair value gap (FVG),
* a break of structure (BOS) that previously acted as resistance and is now expected to act as support, and
* support from the 44 SMA.
2. Wait for price to return to the Daily POI
- Only consider the setup if price actually comes back into that daily POI zone.
3. Switch to the 1-hour timeframe to refine the entry
- Look for a shift in structure on the 1-hour (i.e., evidence that momentum is shifting bullish: BOS to the upside, higher highs/higher lows).
4. Confirm a 1-hour fair value gap forms
- The structure shift on 1-hour should create a 1-hour FVG (a short intraday imbalance).
5. Wait for the 1-hour FVG to be filled
- Let price fill that 1-hour FVG (price moves into/through the gap).
6. Look for a bullish confirmation on the filled 1-hour FVG
- After the fill, require a clear bullish formation on 1-hour (examples: bullish engulfing candle, strong demand candle, a higher-low + rejection wick).
7. Enter on the 1-hour bullish confirmation
- Enter when price breaks the confirmation level (e.g., breaks above the local 1-hour high formed by the bullish setup) or on a confirmed bullish candle close per your entry rules.
USDJPY Sell entry 1::5 RnRUSDJPY is forming a beautiful day trade for selling side. It can be a very good intraday trade if everything goes as per plan.
1. Price kissed 4H Iceberg Block and showed sniper liquidity and left bearish FVGs at both 30m and 15m.
2. 15m FVG is inside 30m FVG and upper side of OTE area.
3. Now it is moving toward FVG areas after taking reversal from bullish 15m BPR
4. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG and OTE zone and create MSS in LTF.
5. Order flow confirming bearish bias.
6. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF (5m,1m) at FVG zone.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:5) trade scenario.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
Gold (XAUUSD) 1:4 intraday buy scenario.Gold is in up move and forming a good buy scenario on 30/15-minute chart. It can be a very good intraday trade if everything goes as per plan.
1. 30/15m bullish FVG is pending and price is showing pull back towards it.
2. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG and OTE zone and create MSS in LTF.
3. Order flow confirming bullish bias.
4. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF at FVG zone.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:4) trade scenario.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
BTC developing a good sell opportunityBTC is moving in range for long time. Now it has shown a displacement after ChoCH and formed a bearish 15m FVG. There may be a good trade at sell side if price approach it. Well there are two trade scenarios are forming.
1. Price moves to 15m FVG and OTE overlap zone.
2. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG and OTE zone and create MSS in LTF.
3. After breaking trend line it should pullback till FVG/trend line or any newly created OB/FVG.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:8) trade scenario.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
ETH multiple Sell OpportunitiesETH is moving in range for almost a week time. Now it has shown a displacement after ChoCH and formed a bearish 15m FVG. There may be a good trade at sell side if price approach it. Well there are two trade scenarios are forming.
Trade # 1
1. Price is moving around a short term trend line and resistance.
2. If price breaks trend line and take the liquidity of resistance than it may be sell trade.
Trade # 2
3. Price moves to 15m FVG and OTE overlap zone.
4. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG zone and break trend line.
5. After breaking trend line it should pullback till FVG/trend line or any newly created OB/FVG.
All these combinations are signaling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:8) trade scenario.
Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
Gold (XAUUSD) forming wonderful sell scenarioGoldUSD price is moving at higher side and showing weakness. It is also forming double top kind of scenario. We may see a good short trade if liquidity sweep is witness at the resistance level with the additional confirmation of higher volume. Overall trend is still upside but buyers seems exhausted. We may find a good sell trade if Liquidity sweeps at resistance and everything goes as we planned.
1. Price is approaching 4H resistance zone. Which may act as a strong supply zone.
2. Buying is slow and weak.
3. Most probably price will take liquidity of resistance zone and break trend line.
4. After breaking trend line it should pullback till resistance/trend line or any newly created OB/FVG.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:8) trade scenario.
Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas.
Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share.
Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
NZDUSD Forming a Great Sell side scenario....NZDJPY is approaching 4H resistance zone, which has already show rejection previously. There is also a steep bullish trend line creating a confluence. There is a valid 4H FVG at upside. All these things signalling a coming very good sell side opportunity. Below are points detailing the same.
1. Price is approaching 4H resistance zone. Which may act as a strong supply zone.
2. Very steep Bullish Trend line developing a confluence at resistance. Steep trend line is always prone for breakout/breakdown.
3. Most probably price will take liquidity of resistance zone and break trend line.
4. After breaking trend line it should pullback till resistance/trend line or any newly created OB/FVG.
5. There are two possible reversal point 1. At nearest resistance. 2. At 4H FVG and higher trendline.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:8) trade scenario.
Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas.
Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share.
Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
XAUUSD SD + OTE Long Trade (Smart Money Logic)This is my recent LONG trade on OANDA:XAUUSD on the 15 min chart.
When everyone was waiting to SHORT , I was waiting patiently in my LONG position.
Entry :
$3378 - Order Block + FVG + 0.5 Optimal Trade Entry level
Exit :
1st Target - $3400 (Standard Deviation Target 1 + 3400 psychological level)
2nd Target - $3418 (Standard Deviation Target 2)
NOTE: Smart Money DOES NOT HUNT stoplosses , they trigger their positions slightly below where they find maximum liquidity, because their positions are WAY TOO HUGE and need all the anti-orders (buy/sell stops) basically buy side or sell side liquidity so that they can fill in their orders. They are literally there to HELP YOU push the price up or down, you just need to place your stoplosses right! not too tight not too far off which may cause market structure shifts. SLs need to be absolutely perfect
Trade Explanation :
OANDA:XAUUSD should have used the 1D Bearish Order Block and we should have seen a fall or at least a decent enough retracement, but only 1 thing saved us, that is 15 min Bullish INDUCMENT and 1H BIAS . I never entered in a short trade!
I hope everyone saw these liquidity pools at the bottom and waited for them to get swept, but yeah, not always will liquidity be hunted right? Pools are areas with the most number of orders + stops. So aren't they supposed to be a good thing? :)
So, yes, DAILY bias is good, but again, LTF bias is also very necessary. Markets won't always respect the DAILY bias. Else, they would always be stuck in a sideways momentum right?
Think about it!
Also, do let me know in the comments what you feel about this trade and also share your analysis!
Buy Opportunity in USOILAn upside opportunity is being developed. Scenario.
1. Choch has happened and price retracing towards FVG.
2. it is also taking support from trendlines.
3. If price rejects with volume in FVG zone, it may lead to good upside trade.
P.s. - It is just analysis not trading recommendation.
EURJPY - SD + OTE + FVG Long EntryFX:EURJPY - Analysis on the 15min TimeFrame.
(Look at the charts for all the levels)
1. Bullish IDM
2. 15min Bullish FVG tapped
3. Optimal Trade Entry ( OTE ) level 0.5 tapped
4. Standard Deviation ( SD ) TP 1 will be used as Target
5. Bearish 15min Order Block is also aligned with SD and can be used as target as well
6. SL - just below last 15min Bullish Order Block
Entry is triggered, let's see if this trade hits TP or SL.
Also, I'd love to hear your analysis as well. What do you guys think? Let me know in the comments
USD/JPY SD + OTE + PD Array AnalysisStandard Deviation Entry Model on FOREXCOM:USDJPY
1. Inducement on 15min TF
2. Targets + Mini reversal zones marked out
3. 1H PD Array (FVG) Equilibrium tapped
4. Entry Triggered
5. 1st Target HIT
6. Waiting for Standard Deviation ultimate target to hit
I'll like to know more your thoughts on this!
Share your analysis as well!
XAU/USD SD + OTE + Fractal Reversal TradeHey traders!
Here you can see all the trades taken by me in accordance with some major concepts of ICT.
1. OTE - Optimal Trade Entry
2. SD - Standard Deviation
3. Fractal Nature - If you can't find a pattern on the HTF, you'll surely find something on the LTF and vice versa. For example:
- The SELL entry over here, we had an FVG on the 5 min TF , there was no other valid level to short the markets.
- The other BUY Entries were taken on HTFs , and gave us very good targets as well!
Standard Deviations when combined with PD arrays , work like a charm and can be used as targets for LTF trades and reversals for HTF trades.
Hope you learned something today!
Share your analysis as well in the comments!
XAUUSD - SD + OTE + PD Array Entry/ExitThis long trade in XAUUSD includes cumulative entry and exit models.
1. SD - Standard Deviation Target 1 - 3274
Standard Deviation Target 2 - 3408
2. OTE - Optimal Trade Entry ( Equilibrium + 40 pips)
3. PD Array - 4H/15m FVG (caused due to CPI news)
PD array + OTE overlapping perfectly, so there's double confirmation.
Last manipulative leg before IDM (Inducement) and MSS (Market Structure Shift) taken for predicting Standard Deviation Targets.
This is a 1D + 4H PD array at play, with Liquidity of previous weekly candle already taken. So it's very possible that trade hits both of our targets.
Already 333pips captured in this trade, waiting for more, let's see what happens!
Share your thoughts and analysis below in the comments.
I'd honestly like to know about your opinion :)
BTC - OTE + SD Bearish Targets- As per my previous analysis, BTC Long targets were achieved perfectly and exactly from those levels a selling was expected. So, we hopped on to a SHORT trade at the TOP.
1. OTE (Optimal Trade Entry)
2. Bearish SD Targets (Standard Deviation Projections)
- Short Trade TP1 and TP2 are completed, which is almost 3000 points!
- Waiting for TP3
Do drop in your thoughts about this trade!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD Let's HODL!
Gold Plan 12/08 – Captain VincentGold Plan 12/08 – Captain Vincent ⚓
Background:
After sliding from the Storm Breaker 🌊, Gold has broken below the 3358 zone and successfully retested it. The ship is now heading straight towards the Buy Scalp – Quick Boarding 🚤 dock.
Today’s Plan: Only buy when price reaches the pre-defined support zones — no chasing in open waters.
Zone 1 – Quick Boarding 🚤 (Buy Scalp)
Entry: 3,333 – 3,331
SL: 3,327
TP: 3,336 → 3,339 → 3,342 → 3,345 → 3,348 → 33xx
Note: Fast in & out. Take partial profits at each TP hit.
Zone 2 – Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Main Buy Zone)
Entry: 3,311 – 3,309
SL: 3,305
TP: 3,315 → 3,319 → 3,323 → 3,327 → 3,331 → 33xx
Note: Main accumulation zone. Hold longer if buying momentum stays strong.
Today’s Scenarios:
If price hits Quick Boarding → Wait for a reversal signal (pin bar, engulfing) on M15/H1 before entering.
If price dips to Golden Harbor → Observe the bounce strength; enter only on clear confirmation.
If neither zone is touched → Stay on the shore; wait for the next voyage.
Captain’s Note:
“The Gold ship has left the 3358 waters, turning its bow towards Quick Boarding 🚤. If docking is smooth, the crew will sail out swiftly to the open seas. Golden Harbor 🏝️ remains the main refuge if stronger waves push deeper.”
Nifty Analysis - Smart Money Concepts or LiquidityI would like to present my Nifty Analysis based on Liquidity or Smart Money Concepts.
This Analysis is based on Multi-time frame (Weekly & Daily) Time Frame. here chart is used on Daily Time Frame.
Current Scenario - (Weekly TF Analysis)
==Weekly Time Frame Analysis -
The current move is retracing into a weekly POI zone which also has-
-Daily Imbalance
-HTF Supply Block
-Smart Money Trap Zone (marked)
Right now, HTF is still in broad bearish retracement structure.
==Daily TF Annalysis -
-Price is consolidating in a range within a clearly defined HTF POI (High Probability Reversal Area)
-Inside the range:
-Multiple internal BOS & MSS
-Clean liquidity pool build-up (marked in yellow)
-Potential for buy-side liquidity sweep followed by sell-off into discount
Price Projection & Bias -----
1. Short-Term Bias (Next 3–5 Weeks): Downside after Extreme POI liquidity grab
-Expectation is there will be a Fakeout above the liquidity pool (25,500–25,800), or in retail language say it is Stop Loss Hunt then sell-off.
-Target: Volume Imbalance near 23,200–22,700.
-This will be aligned with - Liquidity sweep , Mitigation of volume imbalance , Entry into Weekly Discount Zone.
2. Mid-Term Bias or say 2-3 months expectation (After Re-accumulation)
-If price reacts with storng bullish order flow from 22500-22000 range then expect -
-Reversal into bullish structure
-Target - 26200 or 26400
-Supported by mean reversion + reaccumulating idea
(For Entry Module)
- Consider 15min to 1 hour Time frame setup for confirmation before taking shorts from above supply zone.
- expect a long setup around 22200-22400 only if bullish BOS + FVG Filled and also consider HTF Liquidity sweep near weekly wick discount zone or say 50% mean reversion.
Disclaimer -- (Views are only for Educational Purpose only. Always consult your financial Advisor before doing Any Investments).
Your Views or Comments are welcomed.
How to Trade "Mitigation Blocks" – Secret Used by Big Boys!Hello Traders!
Today we’re diving into an advanced Smart Money Concept – the Mitigation Block . If you’ve ever wondered how institutional traders quietly manage their risk and re-enter trades with precision, this is it. Learning to identify and trade Mitigation Blocks can completely change how you see charts — and give you an edge most retail traders miss!
What is a Mitigation Block?
A Mitigation Block is formed when smart money (institutions, banks) enter a position, price reacts strongly, but later returns to the same zone to “mitigate” their risk or add more positions. This block acts as a powerful zone of support or resistance , depending on trend direction.
How to Identify a Mitigation Block
Look for Imbalance + Strong Reaction: A large impulsive candle followed by a return to the origin zone.
Price Fills the Fair Value Gap: Smart money wants to re-enter at the best price — this creates the mitigation block.
Previous Break of Structure: The block should follow a BOS (Break of Structure) that confirms a new trend.
How to Trade the Mitigation Block
Mark the Origin Candle Zone: Identify the candle or small range where the impulse began. This is your block.
Wait for Price to Return: When price comes back to that zone, look for entry confirmation (candlestick rejection, SMC confirmation, etc.).
Use Proper SL and RR: Place stop loss below/above the mitigation zone and target next liquidity level or BOS zone.
Rahul’s Tip
Most traders chase breakouts. Smart money plans for the pullback to mitigation zones. Be patient, wait for confirmation, and strike where big players do — not where the crowd is jumping in.
Conclusion
Mitigation Blocks are not just support/resistance — they are institutional footprints. Learn to spot them, understand the intent behind them, and you’ll start entering where the big boys load up.
Have you ever traded mitigation blocks before? Share your experience in the comments!