Gold (XAUUSD) 1:4 intraday buy scenario.Gold is in up move and forming a good buy scenario on 30/15-minute chart. It can be a very good intraday trade if everything goes as per plan.
1. 30/15m bullish FVG is pending and price is showing pull back towards it.
2. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG and OTE zone and create MSS in LTF.
3. Order flow confirming bullish bias.
4. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF at FVG zone.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:4) trade scenario.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
SMC
BTC developing a good sell opportunityBTC is moving in range for long time. Now it has shown a displacement after ChoCH and formed a bearish 15m FVG. There may be a good trade at sell side if price approach it. Well there are two trade scenarios are forming.
1. Price moves to 15m FVG and OTE overlap zone.
2. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG and OTE zone and create MSS in LTF.
3. After breaking trend line it should pullback till FVG/trend line or any newly created OB/FVG.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:8) trade scenario.
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ETH multiple Sell OpportunitiesETH is moving in range for almost a week time. Now it has shown a displacement after ChoCH and formed a bearish 15m FVG. There may be a good trade at sell side if price approach it. Well there are two trade scenarios are forming.
Trade # 1
1. Price is moving around a short term trend line and resistance.
2. If price breaks trend line and take the liquidity of resistance than it may be sell trade.
Trade # 2
3. Price moves to 15m FVG and OTE overlap zone.
4. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG zone and break trend line.
5. After breaking trend line it should pullback till FVG/trend line or any newly created OB/FVG.
All these combinations are signaling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:8) trade scenario.
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Gold (XAUUSD) forming wonderful sell scenarioGoldUSD price is moving at higher side and showing weakness. It is also forming double top kind of scenario. We may see a good short trade if liquidity sweep is witness at the resistance level with the additional confirmation of higher volume. Overall trend is still upside but buyers seems exhausted. We may find a good sell trade if Liquidity sweeps at resistance and everything goes as we planned.
1. Price is approaching 4H resistance zone. Which may act as a strong supply zone.
2. Buying is slow and weak.
3. Most probably price will take liquidity of resistance zone and break trend line.
4. After breaking trend line it should pullback till resistance/trend line or any newly created OB/FVG.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:8) trade scenario.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
NZDUSD Forming a Great Sell side scenario....NZDJPY is approaching 4H resistance zone, which has already show rejection previously. There is also a steep bullish trend line creating a confluence. There is a valid 4H FVG at upside. All these things signalling a coming very good sell side opportunity. Below are points detailing the same.
1. Price is approaching 4H resistance zone. Which may act as a strong supply zone.
2. Very steep Bullish Trend line developing a confluence at resistance. Steep trend line is always prone for breakout/breakdown.
3. Most probably price will take liquidity of resistance zone and break trend line.
4. After breaking trend line it should pullback till resistance/trend line or any newly created OB/FVG.
5. There are two possible reversal point 1. At nearest resistance. 2. At 4H FVG and higher trendline.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high Risk and Reward (1:8) trade scenario.
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XAUUSD SD + OTE Long Trade (Smart Money Logic)This is my recent LONG trade on OANDA:XAUUSD on the 15 min chart.
When everyone was waiting to SHORT , I was waiting patiently in my LONG position.
Entry :
$3378 - Order Block + FVG + 0.5 Optimal Trade Entry level
Exit :
1st Target - $3400 (Standard Deviation Target 1 + 3400 psychological level)
2nd Target - $3418 (Standard Deviation Target 2)
NOTE: Smart Money DOES NOT HUNT stoplosses , they trigger their positions slightly below where they find maximum liquidity, because their positions are WAY TOO HUGE and need all the anti-orders (buy/sell stops) basically buy side or sell side liquidity so that they can fill in their orders. They are literally there to HELP YOU push the price up or down, you just need to place your stoplosses right! not too tight not too far off which may cause market structure shifts. SLs need to be absolutely perfect
Trade Explanation :
OANDA:XAUUSD should have used the 1D Bearish Order Block and we should have seen a fall or at least a decent enough retracement, but only 1 thing saved us, that is 15 min Bullish INDUCMENT and 1H BIAS . I never entered in a short trade!
I hope everyone saw these liquidity pools at the bottom and waited for them to get swept, but yeah, not always will liquidity be hunted right? Pools are areas with the most number of orders + stops. So aren't they supposed to be a good thing? :)
So, yes, DAILY bias is good, but again, LTF bias is also very necessary. Markets won't always respect the DAILY bias. Else, they would always be stuck in a sideways momentum right?
Think about it!
Also, do let me know in the comments what you feel about this trade and also share your analysis!
Buy Opportunity in USOILAn upside opportunity is being developed. Scenario.
1. Choch has happened and price retracing towards FVG.
2. it is also taking support from trendlines.
3. If price rejects with volume in FVG zone, it may lead to good upside trade.
P.s. - It is just analysis not trading recommendation.
EURJPY - SD + OTE + FVG Long EntryFX:EURJPY - Analysis on the 15min TimeFrame.
(Look at the charts for all the levels)
1. Bullish IDM
2. 15min Bullish FVG tapped
3. Optimal Trade Entry ( OTE ) level 0.5 tapped
4. Standard Deviation ( SD ) TP 1 will be used as Target
5. Bearish 15min Order Block is also aligned with SD and can be used as target as well
6. SL - just below last 15min Bullish Order Block
Entry is triggered, let's see if this trade hits TP or SL.
Also, I'd love to hear your analysis as well. What do you guys think? Let me know in the comments
USD/JPY SD + OTE + PD Array AnalysisStandard Deviation Entry Model on FOREXCOM:USDJPY
1. Inducement on 15min TF
2. Targets + Mini reversal zones marked out
3. 1H PD Array (FVG) Equilibrium tapped
4. Entry Triggered
5. 1st Target HIT
6. Waiting for Standard Deviation ultimate target to hit
I'll like to know more your thoughts on this!
Share your analysis as well!
XAU/USD SD + OTE + Fractal Reversal TradeHey traders!
Here you can see all the trades taken by me in accordance with some major concepts of ICT.
1. OTE - Optimal Trade Entry
2. SD - Standard Deviation
3. Fractal Nature - If you can't find a pattern on the HTF, you'll surely find something on the LTF and vice versa. For example:
- The SELL entry over here, we had an FVG on the 5 min TF , there was no other valid level to short the markets.
- The other BUY Entries were taken on HTFs , and gave us very good targets as well!
Standard Deviations when combined with PD arrays , work like a charm and can be used as targets for LTF trades and reversals for HTF trades.
Hope you learned something today!
Share your analysis as well in the comments!
XAUUSD - SD + OTE + PD Array Entry/ExitThis long trade in XAUUSD includes cumulative entry and exit models.
1. SD - Standard Deviation Target 1 - 3274
Standard Deviation Target 2 - 3408
2. OTE - Optimal Trade Entry ( Equilibrium + 40 pips)
3. PD Array - 4H/15m FVG (caused due to CPI news)
PD array + OTE overlapping perfectly, so there's double confirmation.
Last manipulative leg before IDM (Inducement) and MSS (Market Structure Shift) taken for predicting Standard Deviation Targets.
This is a 1D + 4H PD array at play, with Liquidity of previous weekly candle already taken. So it's very possible that trade hits both of our targets.
Already 333pips captured in this trade, waiting for more, let's see what happens!
Share your thoughts and analysis below in the comments.
I'd honestly like to know about your opinion :)
BTC - OTE + SD Bearish Targets- As per my previous analysis, BTC Long targets were achieved perfectly and exactly from those levels a selling was expected. So, we hopped on to a SHORT trade at the TOP.
1. OTE (Optimal Trade Entry)
2. Bearish SD Targets (Standard Deviation Projections)
- Short Trade TP1 and TP2 are completed, which is almost 3000 points!
- Waiting for TP3
Do drop in your thoughts about this trade!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD Let's HODL!
Gold Plan 12/08 – Captain VincentGold Plan 12/08 – Captain Vincent ⚓
Background:
After sliding from the Storm Breaker 🌊, Gold has broken below the 3358 zone and successfully retested it. The ship is now heading straight towards the Buy Scalp – Quick Boarding 🚤 dock.
Today’s Plan: Only buy when price reaches the pre-defined support zones — no chasing in open waters.
Zone 1 – Quick Boarding 🚤 (Buy Scalp)
Entry: 3,333 – 3,331
SL: 3,327
TP: 3,336 → 3,339 → 3,342 → 3,345 → 3,348 → 33xx
Note: Fast in & out. Take partial profits at each TP hit.
Zone 2 – Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Main Buy Zone)
Entry: 3,311 – 3,309
SL: 3,305
TP: 3,315 → 3,319 → 3,323 → 3,327 → 3,331 → 33xx
Note: Main accumulation zone. Hold longer if buying momentum stays strong.
Today’s Scenarios:
If price hits Quick Boarding → Wait for a reversal signal (pin bar, engulfing) on M15/H1 before entering.
If price dips to Golden Harbor → Observe the bounce strength; enter only on clear confirmation.
If neither zone is touched → Stay on the shore; wait for the next voyage.
Captain’s Note:
“The Gold ship has left the 3358 waters, turning its bow towards Quick Boarding 🚤. If docking is smooth, the crew will sail out swiftly to the open seas. Golden Harbor 🏝️ remains the main refuge if stronger waves push deeper.”
Nifty Analysis - Smart Money Concepts or LiquidityI would like to present my Nifty Analysis based on Liquidity or Smart Money Concepts.
This Analysis is based on Multi-time frame (Weekly & Daily) Time Frame. here chart is used on Daily Time Frame.
Current Scenario - (Weekly TF Analysis)
==Weekly Time Frame Analysis -
The current move is retracing into a weekly POI zone which also has-
-Daily Imbalance
-HTF Supply Block
-Smart Money Trap Zone (marked)
Right now, HTF is still in broad bearish retracement structure.
==Daily TF Annalysis -
-Price is consolidating in a range within a clearly defined HTF POI (High Probability Reversal Area)
-Inside the range:
-Multiple internal BOS & MSS
-Clean liquidity pool build-up (marked in yellow)
-Potential for buy-side liquidity sweep followed by sell-off into discount
Price Projection & Bias -----
1. Short-Term Bias (Next 3–5 Weeks): Downside after Extreme POI liquidity grab
-Expectation is there will be a Fakeout above the liquidity pool (25,500–25,800), or in retail language say it is Stop Loss Hunt then sell-off.
-Target: Volume Imbalance near 23,200–22,700.
-This will be aligned with - Liquidity sweep , Mitigation of volume imbalance , Entry into Weekly Discount Zone.
2. Mid-Term Bias or say 2-3 months expectation (After Re-accumulation)
-If price reacts with storng bullish order flow from 22500-22000 range then expect -
-Reversal into bullish structure
-Target - 26200 or 26400
-Supported by mean reversion + reaccumulating idea
(For Entry Module)
- Consider 15min to 1 hour Time frame setup for confirmation before taking shorts from above supply zone.
- expect a long setup around 22200-22400 only if bullish BOS + FVG Filled and also consider HTF Liquidity sweep near weekly wick discount zone or say 50% mean reversion.
Disclaimer -- (Views are only for Educational Purpose only. Always consult your financial Advisor before doing Any Investments).
Your Views or Comments are welcomed.
How to Trade "Mitigation Blocks" – Secret Used by Big Boys!Hello Traders!
Today we’re diving into an advanced Smart Money Concept – the Mitigation Block . If you’ve ever wondered how institutional traders quietly manage their risk and re-enter trades with precision, this is it. Learning to identify and trade Mitigation Blocks can completely change how you see charts — and give you an edge most retail traders miss!
What is a Mitigation Block?
A Mitigation Block is formed when smart money (institutions, banks) enter a position, price reacts strongly, but later returns to the same zone to “mitigate” their risk or add more positions. This block acts as a powerful zone of support or resistance , depending on trend direction.
How to Identify a Mitigation Block
Look for Imbalance + Strong Reaction: A large impulsive candle followed by a return to the origin zone.
Price Fills the Fair Value Gap: Smart money wants to re-enter at the best price — this creates the mitigation block.
Previous Break of Structure: The block should follow a BOS (Break of Structure) that confirms a new trend.
How to Trade the Mitigation Block
Mark the Origin Candle Zone: Identify the candle or small range where the impulse began. This is your block.
Wait for Price to Return: When price comes back to that zone, look for entry confirmation (candlestick rejection, SMC confirmation, etc.).
Use Proper SL and RR: Place stop loss below/above the mitigation zone and target next liquidity level or BOS zone.
Rahul’s Tip
Most traders chase breakouts. Smart money plans for the pullback to mitigation zones. Be patient, wait for confirmation, and strike where big players do — not where the crowd is jumping in.
Conclusion
Mitigation Blocks are not just support/resistance — they are institutional footprints. Learn to spot them, understand the intent behind them, and you’ll start entering where the big boys load up.
Have you ever traded mitigation blocks before? Share your experience in the comments!
EURUSD 4H chart - Short Setup🔍 Chart Overview
Pair: EURUSD
Timeframe: 4H
Pattern Identified: Head & Shoulders (bearish reversal pattern)
Trendline: Broken — signals end of previous uptrend
Market Structure: Lower highs forming → beginning of a downtrend
📉 Bearish Trade Setup
1. Entry Zone
Marked just below the broken trendline and neckline of the Head & Shoulders.
Entry: ~1.12450–1.12500
Price has already broken below neckline → confirming the pattern.
2. Stop Loss (SL)
Placed above the right shoulder, around 1.14096.
Smart placement as a break above would invalidate the Head & Shoulders pattern.
It also covers any minor retracement into the supply zone.
3. Take Profits (TP)
1st TP: ~1.09000 zone
🔹 This zone acted as previous structure support
🔹 Good area to book partials or move SL to breakeven
2nd TP: ~1.03258
🔹 Long-term target
🔹 Based on major previous demand zone visible on the left (possibly from daily chart)
🔻 Technical Analysis
✅ Bearish Confirmation
Head and Shoulders formation: Reliable trend reversal signal
Break of Trendline: Confirms the structure has shifted
Break of neckline: Entry confirmation
Retest of neckline/structure: Entry after confirmation makes it safer
🔎 Confluences
Confluence Result
Head & Shoulders ✅ Strong reversal pattern
Break of trendline ✅ Indicates shift in trend
Break + Retest of neckline ✅ Classic confirmation
Entry after confirmation ✅ Higher probability
SL above right shoulder ✅ Strategic placement
TP levels at structure & demand ✅ Logical TP zones
🛡️ Risk to Reward (RRR)
RRR is very favorable, roughly:
1st TP ≈ 1:2
2nd TP ≈ 1:4 or higher
A well-planned swing trade
📌 Final Recommendation
✅ This is a clean swing trade setup based on price action, pattern, and structure shift.
🔄 Consider partial close at 1st TP and trail SL.
🧠 Maintain discipline on SL—if price violates the right shoulder, exit.
AUDNZD 2H Chart Analysis – Trendline Break + Supply Zone Rejecti🧾 Market Context:
Pair: AUDNZD
Timeframe: 2H (2-Hour)
Overall Bias: Bearish
Setup Type: Trendline Break → Lower High Formation → Supply Zone Retest → Bearish Continuation
📊 Technical Breakdown:
🔸 1. Trendline Break:
A steep ascending trendline has been broken decisively, marking a clear end of bullish structure.
This shift indicates that buyers have lost control and bears are stepping in.
🔸 2. Retest of Supply Zone (Breaker Block):
After breaking the trendline, price retraced into a supply zone (highlighted in grey).
This zone also acts as a breaker block – price broke support, and now it’s acting as resistance.
Rejection from this area confirms institutional selling pressure.
🔸 3. Lower High Formation:
The price failed to break back above the supply zone, forming a lower high, which is a classic bearish market structure signal.
Trendline retest + supply zone rejection together give confluence.
🔸 4. Bearish Projection Path:
Your chart outlines a clear path of expected price movement:
Minor bounce from intermediate demand (1.0780–1.0790)
Continuation downward toward final target zone at 1.0650–1.0660
🔽 Entry & Trade Plan:
Parameter Details
Entry Area 1.0820 – 1.0840 (confirmed rejection)
Stop Loss Above 1.0855 (above the supply zone high)
Target 1 1.0770 – 1.0780 (intermediate demand zone)
Target 2 1.0650 – 1.0660 (major demand zone)
RR Ratio Around 1:3 to 1:4 depending on entry
✅ Bearish Confluences:
✅ Trendline break + retest
✅ Supply zone rejection
✅ Lower high formation
✅ Bearish engulfing candle post-retest
✅ Clear break of structure (BOS)
✅ Liquidity sweep above previous high before dumping
⚠️ Invalidation Criteria:
If price closes above 1.0855 on a 2H/4H candle, it invalidates the bearish setup.
In that case, reanalyze for potential continuation or false breakout.
📈 Visualization Path:
🔹 Current price is consolidating slightly below the retest zone.
🔹 You anticipate a drop to intermediate support, possible small bounce, then continuation to major target.
🧠 Professional Summary:
This is a textbook bearish trend reversal setup:
Break of bullish trendline
Supply zone retest and rejection
Structure shift to lower lows/lower highs
Bearish order flow developing
If momentum follows through, your TP at 1.0650 is very realistic.
XAUUSD Bullish Breakout with Retest & Rally Setup (1H Chart) Pair: XAUUSD (Gold vs US Dollar)
Timeframe: 1 Hour (1H)
Market Bias: Bullish
Strategy Type: Trendline Breakout + Order Block Retest + Liquidity Sweep + Momentum Continuation
📊 Technical Analysis:
🔹 1. Trendline Breakout:
A major descending trendline (bearish structure) was cleanly broken with strong bullish momentum.
This is a market structure shift and indicates potential trend reversal or at least a short-term bullish rally.
🔹 2. Break of Structure & Demand Zones:
Price broke above a key resistance zone (previous supply) around 3360, turning it into support/demand.
A new bullish order block (OB) is visible just below current price (~3340–3350), now acting as an entry zone.
A lower OB zone (~3300–3320) has been left unmitigated, which could act as a second deeper entry point if price retraces further.
🔹 3. Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (FVG):
There is a clean imbalance left between the current price and the lower OB. Price may wick into this zone before rallying.
This imbalance is acting like a magnet and could invite a retracement into the 3340–3320 zone.
🔹 4. Liquidity Engineering:
Buy-side liquidity was likely swept above the trendline break and recent highs.
Sellers trapped above the trendline may give fuel for a deeper push toward the next supply zone.
🔹 5. Target Supply Zone:
A clean and unmitigated supply zone lies between 3480–3500, the ultimate target for bulls if momentum sustains.
📍 Key Levels:
Type Price Range (Approx)
Current Price 3360.90
Entry Zone 1 (OB 1H) 3340 – 3350
Entry Zone 2 (OB 1H) 3300 – 3320
Target Supply Zone 3480 – 3500
Invalidation Below 3300
🎯 Trade Idea:
Entry: On bullish confirmation at 3340–3350 or deeper at 3300–3320
Stop Loss: Below 3300 (structure break + OB invalidation)
Target: 3480–3500 (clean supply zone above)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R): ~1:3 to 1:5 depending on entry zone
✅ Confluences Supporting This Setup:
✅ Trendline break + retest setup
✅ Price flipped previous resistance into support
✅ Strong bullish impulse breaking structure
✅ Bullish Order Block + Fair Value Gap (FVG) below price
✅ Clean upside liquidity pool in untested supply zone
✅ Momentum breakout candle confirms buyer strength
⚠️ Invalidation Criteria:
Breakdown and 1H close below 3300 invalidates the OB and bullish structure.
Be cautious around NFP or Fed-related news, which may spike volatility.
🔁 Potential Scenarios:
📈 Bullish Continuation:
Price retests OB (3340–3350), finds support, and rallies directly to 3480–3500.
🔁 Deeper Retracement:
Price may wick into the lower OB at 3300–3320 to grab liquidity, then rally.
❌ Invalidation:
Breakdown below 3300 = bearish reversal or deeper correction incoming.
📘 Summary Table:
Parameter Value
Bias Bullish
Entry Zone(s) 3340–3350 (primary), 3300–3320
Stop Loss Below 3300
Take Profit 3480–3500
Strategy Trendline Break + OB Retest + Imbalance
Confluences Break of Structure, Demand Zones, FVG, Trendline Break
Nifty 50 Index Analysis & Trade Setup (April 1, 2025)1. Current Market Overview
Last Close: 23,495.15
Day’s Range: 23,450.20 (Low) – 23,545.30 (High)
Change: -48.50 (-0.21%) – Minor bearish close
Key Observations:
The index faced resistance near 23,545 and closed slightly lower.
The 15-minute chart shows consolidation between 23,450–23,545.
The 1-hour chart suggests a broader range between 23,200–23,800.
2. Technical Analysis Breakdown
a) Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Support: 23,450 (Day’s Low)
Strong Support: 23,200–23,400 (Previous swing low & psychological level)
Immediate Resistance: 23,545–23,600 (Day’s High & round number)
Strong Resistance: 23,800 (Key swing high)
b) Price Action & Trend
Bearish Bias: The index closed below the opening price, indicating selling pressure.
Neutral Zone: If 23,450–23,545 holds, expect sideways movement.
Breakout Scenario:
Bullish Break: Above 23,600, target 23,800.
Bearish Break: Below 23,450, target 23,200–23,300.
c) Volume & Momentum
The decline was not extreme, suggesting cautious selling rather than panic.
A retest of 23,500–23,600 could confirm direction.
3. Trade Strategy (Intraday/Swing)
A) Short Trade (Bearish Bias)
Entry Zone: 23,500–23,550 (Retest of resistance)
Stop Loss: 23,600 (Above day’s high)
Target 1: 23,400 (Minor support)
Target 2: 23,200–23,300 (Strong support)
Risk-Reward: ~1:2 (Favorable)
B) Long Trade (Bullish Reversal)
Entry Zone: 23,450–23,400 (Support bounce)
Stop Loss: 23,350 (Below swing low)
Target 1: 23,600 (Resistance)
Target 2: 23,800 (Major resistance)
Risk-Reward: ~1:3 (High reward if breakout occurs)
4. Key Takeaways & Final Thoughts
Bearish until 23,600 breaks – The close below 23,500 suggests weakness.
Watch 23,450 closely – A breakdown could accelerate selling.
Bullish only above 23,600 – Confirmation needed for upside momentum.
Ideal Strategy: Wait for a clear break (either side) before committing.
Final Note: If the market opens near 23,500, watch for rejection (short) or bounce (long). Adjust stops based on volatility.
US100 View for feb last weekUS100 is reversing from the demand zone and waiting for the confirmation to enter buy side.
Here is the view for educational purposes
Buy zone is marked between 20926.5 - 21040.8. It will be the high probability area. So, wait for the confirmation before entry.
Trade with 1:3 RR and it might touch all time high again. Trade accordingly.
It might be weak below the marked zone.
Trade after the confirmation.