LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Two scenarios for the new weekLiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Two scenarios for the new week: wait for reactions at 4100 & Fibonacci zone – prioritise bullish trades when the market recovers
Gold is completing a technical rebound after a sharp drop, and H1 is showing two clear scenarios for the new week. The medium-term trend remains a corrective decline, but on H1, the price is in a rebound phase, so bullish trades will be prioritised – as long as the lower liquidity zones are maintained.
The key this week lies at 4100, where FVG, Fibonacci, and liquidity converge – this is the decisive point to see if gold will bounce back or continue to decline deeply.
🔍 Technical Analysis (Fibonacci • Trendline • Liquidity • Volume Zone)
Fibonacci H1: The price may rebound to Fib 0.5 (~4140–4150) – a zone with high liquidity & likely to show a bearish reaction.
Fib 0.382 (~4120–4130) is currently the first short-term resistance.
Price Structure: The medium-term downtrend is still present, but H1 is forming a rebound wave → prioritise buying when the price pulls back at the support zone.
The descending trendline is still controlling the market. If it breaks the trendline + holds above 4130–4150 → the uptrend is confirmed stronger.
Important liquidity zones:
4100: liquidity confluence + previous bullish resistance → strong reaction zone.
4085 and 4060: liquidity bottoms – if breached, it will trigger a deep decline scenario.
4032: FVG + Fibonacci bottom – the "break or hold" zone for buyers.
Key resistance this week: 4161 – 4187 – 4138 – 4111
📈 TRADING SCENARIOS FOR THE NEW WEEK
Scenario 1 – Bullish trade (priority)
Logic: Gold is rebounding; if it holds 4100 and pulls back strongly → target is the upper Fibonacci zone.
Entry: 4100–4111
SL: 4090
TP: 4138 → 4161 → 4187
Suggestion: Wait for strong signals like pin bar or engulfing H1 to confirm the rebound bottom.
Scenario 2 – Bearish trade (when the market fails to hold the bottom)
Logic: If gold breaks the H1 bottom and retests 4100 without holding → the medium-term downtrend continues to activate.
Entry: 4100–4108 (retest after break)
SL: 4120
TP: 4085 → 4060 → 4032
Suggestion: Only enter when H1 closes below 4100.
🌍 Macro Analysis – Fed causes market noise
According to the latest data from CME Watch:
54.1% chance the Fed maintains rates at 375–400 bps
45.9% chance the Fed cuts rates
The ratio is almost balanced → the market is very indecisive, creating unpredictable volatility ahead of the 10/12 meeting.
In this environment, gold often reacts strongly to unexpected news, so prioritise trading at liquidity zones – wait for clear confirmation.
⚠️ Invalidation Conditions
Price closes below 4060 → fully prioritise bearish trades.
Price closes above 4161 → strong bullish trade activated, discard all sell setups.
What scenario are you preparing for the new week?
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