SMC Global Securities (W) - Aggressive BullishTimeframe: Weekly | Scale: Logarithmic
The stock has confirmed a major structural breakout from a 7-month consolidation phase. The move is supported by the highest weekly volume in months and strong fundamental tailwinds, signaling the start of a new markup phase.
🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why")
The breakout is fueled by a convergence of events:
> Earnings Turnaround: The market is pricing in strong Q3 FY26 numbers.
> Aggressive AUM Targets: Management has set a target to nearly double its Mutual Fund AUM to ₹8,000 Cr within a year. This shift towards "recurring revenue" (Wealth Management) commands a higher P/E multiple than traditional broking.
📈 2. The Chart Structure (The Box Breakout)
> The Consolidation: A sideways trend.
- Context: This consolidation (₹49–₹90) was effectively the market digesting the 1:1 Bonus Issue from late 2025.
- Resistance: The ₹90–₹91 level was the "Lid." The stock tested this multiple times in Dec 2025 but failed to close above it until now.
> The Breakout: This week's close at ₹92.06 (with a high of ₹94.90) confirms the range shift.
- Significance: Breaking a post-bonus consolidation usually leads to a swift 15-20% rally as liquidity improves.
📊 3. Volume & Indicators
> Volume Ignition: The 18.26 Million weekly volume is an "Ignition Bar." It confirms that institutions are entering to capture the pre-budget rally.
> RSI: Rising in Monthly & Weekly timeframes. The Weekly RSI breaking above 60 is a classic "Range Shift" signal, indicating momentum is now in the driver's seat.
🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels
The stock is now in "Price Discovery" mode.
> 🐂 Bullish Targets (The Extension):
- Target 1: ₹105 .
- Target 2: ₹130 .
> 🛡️ Support (The "Must Hold"):
- Immediate Support: ₹88 – ₹90 . The breakout zone must now act as a floor (Polarity Principle).
- Stop Loss: A weekly close below ₹82 would invalidate the bullish view and trap new buyers.
Conclusion
This is a Grade A Setup .
> Refinement: The "Sideways Trend" was actually a "Base Building" phase.
> Strategy: The breakout is confirmed. Use any intraday dip to ₹90 to enter/add. The risk-reward ratio targeting ₹130 is highly favorable.
