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USDINR Next week view 18 March ExpiryUSDINR on Weekly Time frame has reached channel resistance marked in Blue parallel line at this channel resistance, on daily timeframe it has shown us a hanging man (hammer) type candle , the low of this candle is also taken down by the big bearish candle. Now this all has happened at the previous resistance level and this bearish engulf (hammer + big bearish candle) has taken down low of the bullish breakout candle too confirming fake breakout. Now, as per this price action any bounce is a Sell with Stop loss high of the hammer candle (77.150) We can also see Bearish Divergence with RSI. View : Neutral to Short with target 75.5 Counter view : if the high of the hammer is broken out, then bullish momentum continues, hence, continuing the view given in my previous post. Please check out. Strategy that can be applied : Bear Call Spread - Buy 77.25 CE Sell 77 CE (Buy OTM Sell ATM/ITM) OR Call Ratio Back Spread Buy twice of the lots of 76.5 PE and Sell 76.75 PE (Sell one lot of ITM, Buy two lots of OTM) Few things to know about this spread are below :- * Unlimited profit if the market goes down * Limited profit if market goes up * Predefined loss if the market stays within a range
U
by NeelamN
4
U turn expiry.Day to mark, when the market opens with a huge 400 point gap up, and profit booking kicks in. I have an overnight position of 16600CE and 15700PE, which is a huge premium spike that went MTM loss of 25X. It hit harder than the market moved down. When CE started to melt down, I lost 4% of my capital, but I had seen a 10% loss in my MTM, so I decided to book 4% and did not adjust any positions. I have already booked nearly 1.5% of the legs that I rolled up this week. managed to exit with a minimum loss. Let's see how it ends this week. The market is actually not in a good mood.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
Putin effect, Where we can expect expiry. Look at VIX. Where is it now. indicating the crazy movement will continue. Any news can drive the market's movement. stepping into the last week of the month with caution. Monday opened with a gap down and then started a recovery, then fell again. Today it opened with a huge 300 point gap. Think about it. Carrying over night positions is risky. As a trader, we have to look for good premiums everywhere. Make use of it and make sure you won't get stuck in volatility. Looking at the price action, it is good to see that 16850 took support and bounced back. When it comes below 17000, there is buying happening. A good sign. Also, keep an eye on that. If it breaks with strength, we can see a larger move. Above, there is a trend line. I will keep an eye on these levels. Below 16850 and above 17350. Coming to my option selling, I am already sitting on top of nearly 1.5% profit, having booked 0.8% profit. I started selling calls on Friday and I expected negativity. I took 17850 CE at a good premium at the closing time. Monday gap down opening and the CE almost melted. I held on to it, and today I booked profit. I entered into the PE side at 15850 too far with a really good premium VIX spike to help get that and the CE side at 17550. The current position is good now, one point CE side give me bit worry. My plan for the week's PE side almost melted if Tmro gapped down. I will hold my PE and adjust only the expiry day and worry about my CE side because of the VIX spike. If my SL did not meet the price, then my plan was to hold the CE till 17450–17470 and roll up the PE to 16850. Otherwise, just make adjustments. expiry day only.Let's hope we can end this week on a high.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
1
Not a calm expiry but a nifty pause Looking at the chart of 200 point intraday movement now becomes calm expiry. but it's good to see nifty in a range of 17400 to 17200. Option sellers make money, but premium spikes are crazy. Price action speaks. After a trending market, there is a consolidation. That is how the market behaves. The market is still not stable. Global clues are still confusing the market. We can see more news-driven movements. Let's keep an eye on 17450 and 17250 for the last 2 days, respected. Let's keep an eye on these levels. If any of these breaks, we can see another quick move from here. Coming to my option of selling the sitting on top of near 2% profit this week. On Wednesday, the market gapped up, so I booked profit on my 16700PE. When the market started moving down, I was able to get the same position with a good premium, and I averaged the PE side twice, which added good profit to the PE side. I roll down to my CE of 17700. At the end of the day, I rolled my PE to 16900. At the end, my 16900 showed some red, but I had already booked some good profit from 16700, so the position was all good. I hold on to it. When the day started, my position almost melted away. I booked a profit. The market moved down and took support at 17250, a good premium spike of 17900, with the same safety roll down to my CE of 17600. I was expecting a quick down move, so I entered 17500CE and it went and hit SL. After that, it moved my positions to the downside, 17200PE and 17450CE, ending the week on a high. but i was bit worried about the premium spike SL set up saved from the volatile day. 17500CE only hit SL. End the week on a high.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
weekend with green.The second expiry of the month ended on a positive note. The day started with a gap up opening but went down and took support and bounced back at the 17400-20 range. It was good support along with the 17400 range imp and there is a trend line as well. It bounced back with strength, along with the candle. It broke the day high and took resistance at 17600, a consolidation between 17500 and 17600. It tried to break 17600 but couldn't sustain it. Let's see if Nifty will continue its strength or be volatile. coming to my option selling, gap up opening. I was a bit worried about my 17700CE but not that much premium spike. My PE side almost melted. I booked profit and waited till 10AM when suddenly the bounce back came. I entered it at 17200PE. At one point, I was concerned about my CE side. 17600 was tested multiple times. At one point, it was b.k. at 17600 and I booked profit on the CE side because my plan was to exit if 17610 was b.k position give good profit of nearly 0.8%. I did not enter into any other aggressive trades and ended this week above 1%.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
Volatile continues where we can expect expiry. Feb 2nd expiry.Many days of volatility, we can say that the year began with volatility and that it continues, I would say. This Monday, it was b.K. 17400, which was an important fib 0.5 level. Once it is taken out, it is a proper down move. We all know that the importance of the 17000 to 17080 rage is that the rage acted as a support and bounced back again, multiple times, to 17450. A roller coaster ride for option sellers. Tomorrow, the RBI's policy meeting. interest rate fear will be there. Let's see how it ends tomorrow. If it continues above 17400, the next level to watch is 17600. On the down side, if any violation below 17350 rages, today's consolidation weakness is still there. We can expect a further decline in prices. I am coming to the option of selling this week. Good for me. I have already booked a profit of nearly 1%. On Monday, nifty b.k 17400, I sold 17400 naked and gave a good profit, and on Tuesday, I entered my 17800CE position and waited to enter the PE side once it took a reversal. I entered 16550. The market moved up. profit in both PE and CE. I am coming to the option of selling this week. Good for me. I have already booked a profit of nearly 1%. On Monday, nifty b.k 17400, I sold 17400 naked and gave a good profit, and on Tuesday, I entered my 17800CE position and waited to enter the PE side once it took a reversal. I entered 16550. The market moved up. profit in both PE and CE. Today's gap is filled with consolidation. I rolled up my PE to 17050 and my CE to 17700. I am holding on to it. This week I'm going to be super conservative because of last week. If nifty, open with a gap up. If it tries to break 17600, I will roll my CE PE up. If it goes below 17200, I will roll my CE down and I will probably exit the PE side if it goes below 17150. Otherwise, I could end up with this week's above 1.5%.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
NIFTY Monthly option Strategy JAN 27 Expiry*** See the effectiveness of weekly levels of last week DEC 27-31 *** See chart ******** Action Strike price 27 JAN Expiry Sell 18000 CE 66.3 Buy 18200 CE 29.8 Sell 16800 PE 96.85 Buy 16600 PE 67.85 Reasoning : NIFTY to stay between 18000 to 16600 Max profit is Rs 3120 ie 7.8% for Rs 40000 Investment . Increase lot size based on your risk appetite. Exit if NIFTY goes above 18030 or below 16600 by keeping an alert from broker You can execute this on Jan 3 and the premium may vary a bit hence profit as well. This is monthly income strategy and low risk strategy(not a zero loss strategy). I am not a SEBI registered advisor and trade based on your own investment adviser past history : DEC Month : 6.825 % November month : 4.53%
NSE:NIFTY
by AstroAnalytica
Going to end this month, Crazy expiry.Look at the chart and see where we are now and how we started this month. This month started with a positive note and kept moving up and up. It is a clear up trend. It took a nifty 14 days to reach 18350. Just five days to keep the nifty dragged down. We have multiple global news sources to follow the down move. But think about the option sellers who hold long positions, vix shoot up to 20+ all eyes on US fed meeting. let's see how it is going to end this month. It is very important that where nifty is going to open on Thursday, we have important levels to watch above 17350,17500,17550 below 17200 major level 17000,16800. I have 17650 CE and 16550PE as well. I will keep book my profit already in 16100 PE and 18050CE, with 17950CE near 0.5%. My plan for Thursday is for the nifty to move up. I will keep 17650CE till the nifty crosses 17550-17500. Keep my PUT up. If it goes down, I will bring my CE down and adjust PE as needed. if there is a gap up or gap down opening above 17550 my limit, and below 16800 I will make adjustments accordingly. If things go well, I hope to exit with a profit.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
1
NIfty 50 17-01-2022The Nifty seems to be somewhat bullish in the near time in the hourly basis time frame, The given ranges are mentioned in the analysis. The market will give a breakout once it breaks the nearest support or resistance mentioned in the analysis on either side. . . . . . . . . . . . . *Disclaimer*- This is just an analysis of the data on the basis of technical factors such as chart patterns, candlestick patterns, trend line, option chain data, etc. Stock Market or Trading in any type of market is subject to high financial risk. You should see this idea as just an analysis. You are not obliged to follow my instructions. You will be responsible for all types of gains or losses in the market. . .
NSE:NIFTY1!Long
by vashishthviraaj
crazy gap down, simple expiry.What an expiry today, with interest rate fear taking nifty down. Look at the chart. There was a huge gap between the opening and the consolidation. Looking at the nifty 5 minute chart, there is a strong upward trend, supporting 50 EMA. Every time the Nifty is at the 50EMA,  good buying activity. At one point, it indicated that it was about to cross the 18000 mark. But as we saw, the channel was created with respect to Nifty, and yesterday it was above the line at 18,000. Price action is at an important level, and profit booking may begin from there. I was expecting that. In the coming days as well, I will closely watch the 18000 level. If it tests again, rejects, or consolidates below the level, it might break out from there again. But with a positive global clue, it's hard to bark at the 18000 level. Keep an eye on FII DII activity. If FII starts buying and DII is still buying, but if DII starts booking their profit, the power of the nifty might slow down. Let's keep an eye on all these activities. When it comes to my weekly option selling this week, I am in the green. But I haven't booked the loss for the 13th expiry (17300 PE). If I book the losses, my net profit and loss will be close to 2%. This 50EMA buying activity helped me to get out of huge losses this week. And I had 17650 PE and my 13th expiry (17300 PE) yesterday. I booked other positions with Profit. Because I was expecting a retest, I took this safe position. The day began with a gap down, which allowed me to exit with a good profit. On the PE side, there is a premium spike, and there is a massive spike on the 17550, 17600, and 17650. My plan for the 13th expiry (17300 PE) is to sell anything above it with a good premium to minimize the losses. I will keep adjusting on my call side as well. I hope I can manage a 2% loss while trying to keep the net P & L green.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh