HINDALCO chart viewHindalco
CMP 210
The stock has made a high of 212.40 so far
Levels mentioned in the chart
Alternatively one may consider selling Hindalco Jan expiry
215 Call Option
around 6.5
Lot size 3500
Max profit potential in the strategy Rs 22750
The strategy has an inbuilt loss protection for rise in stock up to 221.50 on expiry day
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Strategy
Expiry Strategy: Sell Jan 320 Put @ 2.25. Lot size: 2667Recent crossover above 200-EMA and stay above resistance (plz refer the resistance line in chart) would bring back the positive momentum in the stock. As well, MACD reiterates the same. Expect the stock would find it closing above 320 level for Jan expiry.
YES BANK STRATEGY for December seriesYES BANK
CMP 173
The stock may face resistance around 200 odd levels and could find some support around 160 levels.
Given the setup one may consider the following strategy
Sell
YES BANK 190 CALL OPTION - cmp 8.5
&
YES BAK 150 PUT OPTION -cmp 9
The strategy provides a max profit potential of Rs 30625 on margin requirement of Rs 173000 (depending on your broker) Giving a yield potential of 17.7% till 27 December 2018 expiry
Max profit if stock closes anywhere in between 150 and 190 on 27 Dec 2018
Loss only if stock closes above 207.5 or goes below 132.5 on expiry day.
Take care and safe trading...!!!
Expiry Strategy: Sell Dec 90 Call @ 0.5Moving average cross over confirms the continuity of bearish trend. As well, MACD signals that bulls would find very challenging to hold the high in near term. Expect it would stay below 90 level for Dec series. By considering the lesser liquidity, suggesting option investors to execute the order above 0.5
Yes Bank view: Bearish to sideways...!!!Yes Bank
CMP 193.
Observations
- the stock has fallen more than 50% from the highs of 400 levels seen in Aug 2018
- in its attempts to pullback the stock is making lower tops on daily charts
Strategy
One may consider selling Yes Bank 200 Call option
Lot size 1750
CMP 6.6
At best, The strategy provides max 13.2% profit potential on margin amount of approx RS 87500.
Loss Risk is covered for a rise in stock up to 206.60.
Time period: 29 Nov 2018
Take care and safe trading...!!!
Expiry Strategy: Sell Biocon 720 Call @ CMP 3. As price continue to stay below short term downward trend line and close below 50-day EMA with bearish engulfing would keep the trend under bearish territory. Expect Nov series would expiry below 720 and would fetch return of more than 20%p.a post expenses includes brokerage and tax.
Nifty: The Investment PointsHi All,
The Investment Points:
It can be observed from this weekly chart that in the bear markets of 2011 and 2015, the Index formed bottoms near 200 EMA. Those yellow circled marked on the chart proved to be excellent buying/investment opportunities. If I have to load my money for greatest investments, it will be at the same point.
Nifty Took Support yeah...
Nifty took support from the 9950-10500 zone mentioned in my previous post. It bounced sharply for a gain of 600 points and still rallying.
The resistance points:
The first one is 10710. If crossed, we will see more short covering.
The second one would be a wider zone from 10900 to 11100 (200 points).
If market is to correct, these are the two halting points where we may look for selling opportunities.
Complacency for traders
The 10710 level would be very important for next week or so.
On a positive note, bears would not be happy above 10710. Also fresh buying may come above this point. If bulls prove to be stronger above 10710, the second resistance zone specified above will be quite achievable. And that will be a 200 to 300 points gain.
Secondly, On daily chart (see update section) you may see a nice W-Pattern in the making, which signals a medium term bottom formation.
The caution
As we are moving higher very swiftly, it is possible that we may see some profit taking.
The strategy next week:
If we start to pullback before touching 10710, I ll be looking for bear traps to go long.
If we cross 10710 (gaps up scenarios) without any sign of weakness, I ll be looking for buying opportunities.
If we touch 10710 and show weakness, I ll be looking for shorting opportunities for quick gains.
Do hit like
All the best
Regards
ADANI PORTS - JOURNEY OF THE SINKING PORTGuys today we are going to discuss about Adani port initially I would would discuss how it was in a uptrend, there after I will show that how we could have identified that it will turn into a down Trend.
(Please open this post in a Separate Tab. And using mouse click on the chart and move cursor to the left to see the remaining part of the chart)
Adani port was in a uptrend starting from 2017 initially creating series of higher highs and Higher Lows.
In this chart, the first two are the base low and base high. The Lows and High thereafter created are used to draw trend lines / channel which is being followed.
The points of reversal have been highlighted along with corresponding pattern they are forming. The share followed a fixed channel for 11 Straight months. The details of Highs and Lows during these 11 months are as below: (refer chart as well)
Higher Low 1 – No Specific Pattern here. Normal reversal was here. Since we now have 2 Lows (Base Low and Higher Low) these are used to create a trend line .
Higher High 1 – The share was near its its historic resistance and created Hangman pattern (Reversal Pattern) and thereby reversed from here.
Higher Low 2 – The Share was near its Lower Channel and created an Inside Bar Pattern which indicated reversal. The share moving up thereafter.
Higher High 2 – The share was near Its upper channel and created a Doji (Confusion after a series of uptrend) near the resistance, which indicated Confusion after a series of uptrend. Traders were unsure whether the share will continue its upward trend or not and there share started reversing from here.
Higher Low 3 – The shared touched the lower channel and the immediately next candle made a Doji / Hammer but it was formed below the Lower Channel. Doji / Hammer indicates weakness in the ongoing trend. So, though share was trading below lower channel, same could not be considered as a breakdown. Also, the share reversed post this.
Higher High 3 – The share showed certain consolidation and confusion in the market. So no specific pattern formed here.
Higher Low 4 – In the process to make next Low. The share breached Channel and the next 2-3 candles including one big red candle) was formed below the channel thereby confirming breakdown. The share thereafter created Hammer Pattern and reversed from here.
Now although On First December it created a higher Low (which indicates uptrend) it gave a channel breakdown. Thereby giving hints of further breakdown. But Since we always follow multiple confirmations, we would not trade a simple breakdown and would require more surety to ensure the same.
The share further moved on make a Higher High 4 and reversed with Bearish Engulfing Pattern.
The share then continuously moved down and created a Lower Low. As mentioned in the first part, the first indication was the Channel Breakout and Lower Low gave the second confirmation of downfall coming up. Here we should rely on the confirmation and find a good level to short the share.
Since the share is near its crucial support, it would be correct to short this share if :
1. It breaks support with Volume
2. If reverses from Support, we should short near next resistance.
The share as expected took support of the major support at 350 and reversed from here creating a Bullish Belt Hold Pattern.
Since then the share has formed a channel between support and resistance and moving in between. Shorting near resistance and Going long near Support would have been a good strategy.
On 22nd the share broke the support with Volume , there confirming the further breakdown..
Historic Support and Resistance have great significance and such levels are always respected by the shares. Further double confirmation should be used while taking position.
Every person has different way of analyzing shares. Some follow Candlestick Patterns, Some follow trend-lines, some follow Elliot Wave and there is nothing wrong with any of these methods. Each of these methods is successful in their own and you need to believe in the strategy you believe and religiously follow it.
Just to hold onto your faith and continue with your strategy. Even the basic Candlestick patterns have the ability to reap you awesome results.
Thanks, i hope this is Helpful.
Keep sharing the list of shares you want an analysis on. Thanks :)
PS : All views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together.
#JOURNEYOFATRADE
WHAT HAPPENED WITH MARUTI? 10000 to 6800 Journey!Maruti reached its 52W high at 10,000 and has been faaling continuously since then. The way Maruti % fell shocked alot of people, However it was not all that difficult to determine the fall and I will share, how I proceeded and made money in Maruti 5.71% .
On 25 July, Maruti reached its prior top weeks high zone of 9900-10000 again. It was a good resistance and If it is broken with Good volumes, Maruti can go upto 12K-13K, The next day Maruti reversed from the resistance zone and created a Double Top (as shown in the chart), also the Day Candle formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern which indicates the start of the downfall.
Double Top Pattern is a fairly successful pattern and Share is expected to reach the neckline at 8200-8300 zones before changing its direction.
Maruti immediately the next day formed a large 500 points Bearish Candle which gave me good profits, And I continued waiting for my Initial target of 8200 (Neckline). In the meanwhile share gave a lot of green candles, But I since I was already in profits, I had margin of bear some green Candles.
Each time Maruti showed a couple of green candle, a Big Red candle wiped out gains forming Bearish Engulfing Pattern repetitively, which posted my confidence. Share reached up to 9000 after that Rose 250 points.
I though of squaring off position but the prior experience showed that there has not been 3 consecutive green candles in the past 9 months, So I decided to wait for the next day. Maruti reversed and showed red candles for the next 3 days and formed a 3 Blacks Crows pattern, which is sign of huge fall coming.
Near 14 September One Gap Up for formed, but the next day there was a Gap Down thereby forming a Evening Star Pattern.
On 19 September, Share finally reached my initial target of 8200 after I squared off and decided to play a LONG STRANGLE, to up my possibilities of winning. I took a Put and a Call at 3% Difference.
Soon The share broke the neckline and started to go more downwards, I squared up my call and waited for gains in Put.
Every person has different way of Analyzing. But the idea is to hold onto your faith and continue with your strategy. Even the basic Candlestick patterns have the ability to reap you awesome results.
Thanks, i hope this is Helpful.
Keep sharing the list of shares you want an analysis on. Thanks :)
MyAlgo : xMRSI-Progresser: Intraday : 01Oct-TVSMOTOR-ShortBased on my ""xMRSI-Progresser"" predictive trading methodologies, its going to be a RED candle on 01-Oct-2018 for TVSMOTOR
Sell Below(5Min candle close): 558.6 for targets -
T1: 554.4
T2: 551.9
T3: 549.3
SL: 563.1
Note: These calls are based on my own analysis. It may or may not work well for you.So please carefully consider whether it is suitable for you and please do your own research before attempting any. The profit/loss made by you due to this call, is solely your own responsibility. Thanks, All the best. Happy Trading. :-)
BTC Trading Stratgies.BTC currently showing us a strong support near 6000 but this time the retracement to 7000 is not possible as it has shown us repeatedly weak rallies from 6000 levels.
we may see it go till 6735 not more than that.
If the 6600 level is not broken than we will see a major dump till 6000 level and followed by next support levels.
so this time we see as it will break this level soon and than reaching to 5000 levels this month end and than we have to see the movement around that area but we believe it to reach to 4200-4500 level giving btc the support it needs to continue its rallies
The support we have made are from GANN Angles werein you can see the support being marked and the overall sentiment of the market is also bearish.
HDFC BANK STRANGLE OPTION TRADING STRATEGYHDFC BANK STRANGLE OPTION TRADING STRATEGY
I DONOT CARE FOR THE RESULT IN WHICH DIRECTION IT WILL
GO.
I AM CONCERNED REGARDING MAKING MONEY AS I AM SCALPER
WHEN IT COMES TO TRADING RESULTS.
HERE WE ARE BUYING BOTH THE PUT AND THE CALL OPTION
BUY 2140 PUT OPTION @12
BUY 2260 CALL OPTION @11.8
BREAKEVEN=23.8
TARGET MIN-30/MAX:33
QTY:
PUT:1000
CALL:1000
MY VIEW:
THERE CAN BE HEAVY PROFIT BOOKING IN THE STOCK
IN CASE OF ANY MISS IN THE ESTIMATES I EXPECT 4%-5%
MOVEMENT.
NOTE:
EXPIRY NEXT WEEK
TRADE ONLY FOR MONDAY
Price Action MACD Strategy: Rules and BackTest ResultsTake it as educational unless you understand the details of this strategy. I suggest you to backtest yourself, to understand entries and exits, before putting it in your trading repertoire.
Rules:
-------
Only Long trades when price > 55 EMA
Only short trades when price < 55 EMA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time Frame 1H
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long Entry Preconditions:
a) Price above 55 EMA
b) MACD histogram above zero line
--Positive Divergence seen on MACD signal line (a complementary condition for High probability Entries)
Long Entry Trigger:
Price break above Significant peak fractal of previous downwave OR the break above prior peak fractal high.
Exit Strategy or Stop:
Type 1 Exit
Precondition: Negative Divergence seen on MACD signal line; and
Trigger: Break below a consolidation level or the prior minor swing low
Type 2 Exit
Hourly close below 55 EMA
Exit type I or type II whichever comes earlier
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short Entry Preconditions:
a) Price below 55 EMA
b) MACD histogram below zero line
--Negative Divergence seen on MACD signal line (a complementary condition for High probability Entries)
Short Entry Trigger:
Price break below Significant fractal of previous upwave OR the break below prior swing fractal low.
Exit Strategy or Stop:
Type 1 Exit
Precondition: Positive Divergence seen on MACD signal line; and
Trigger: Break above a consolidation level or the prior minor swing high
Type 2 Exit
Hourly close above 55 EMA
Exit type I or type II whichever comes earlier
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# If trade exited but price shoots back piercing out of 55 EMA or is already above/below 55 EMA , a break of previous peak fractal with MACD histogram above/below zero line triggers entry again.
# Exit Strategy discussed above works well in long trades but chops in short trades. Tweaking a little by taking 1:1 or smaller targets (to previous support zones) instead of the Exit strategy may help in this issue.
Backtesting From Jun till 20th July:
*10558 SL 10626 = -68
10771 E10830 = 59
*10755 SL 10782 = -27
10810 SL 10758 = -52
*10732 E10570 = 162
10737 E10999 = 262
Net= +336
Results suggest that this strategy is too good in a trending market. Side ways market may give breakeven trades.
#Trades with asterisk mark are short.
Currently No trigger but bearish divergence on MACD
# Older results in the following post
Enough testing, now its time to trust this strategy.
Enjoy the weekend
Regards
STRATEGY FOR INTRADAY/DAY TRADINGRANGE BREAKOUT STRATEGY
-------------------------------------------------------
1) First find a stock which moved only in a extremely narrow range after 10 or 10:30am during the day on 15 min timeframe.
2) Draw a rectangle covering all HIGHs and LOWs (as shown in this example)
3) Entry for Buy will be Upper Lvl of box with SL as Lower Lvl
& Entry for SELL will be Lower Lvl of box with SL as Upper Lvl
4) Target can be decided based on Support/Resistance Levels
5) This strategy has given me 95% accuracy on 40 trades in 5 trading sessions.
Try and learn.
You can also look at volumes for BTST calls