Tatasteel
HDFC twins, KOTAK BANK throw their weight in and end the expiry NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15762.7 / 15817.35 / 15737.8 / 15778.45
Trading Range Low to High: 80 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 40 points
India VIX: 12.95 / -5.41%
FII DII activities: +1190 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty was made to end the expiry below 15800. A psycho victory for the bears and a sweet victory for the 15800 and above Call Writers.
The range for yesterday was 180 points and today it was only 80 points. The expiry fireworks took place on Wednesday and today was a painstaking and option premium decaying expiry.
Once again, Nifty ended around the opening price and it also ended the series on an indecisive note with a Doji candle on the monthly charts.
We have only made a higher high and higher low, but we are still not yet out of the haunting zone of 15835-50.
TOP 3 LOSERS
MARUTI - The car made a nosedive after losing support of the 50 as well as 200 DMA and halted at the FIB level of 6936-50. There may be some more weakness as has been experienced by almost all the scrips that declared its results this season.If that happens, it may head towards 6800 from where the earlier bounce was made in a very smart manner.
ITC - Breached the 50 DMA and is now hoping to get support from 20 DMA and if the sentiment is bad, it may retest 200 DMA around 200. A scrip that is extremely range bound and possibly making the option writers happy.
BAJAJ AUTO - After breaching its 50 DMA around 4100, it has been consistently falling and is now within a striking distance of its 200 DMA around 3675. So tomorrow’s price action is likely to decide if it is taking support or losing it.
TOP 3 GAINERS
HINDALCO - What a roaring move and what a convincing manner to break the earlier ATH which could have acted as a resistance. The scrip even outpaced TATA STEEL and placed it on the second spot. We have to see how far can this rocket go!
TATA STEEL - It is good to see Metals becoming a rocket! Yet another ATH and it is heading higher.
BAJAJ FINSERV - While the auto sibling has been consistently losing, this one has been consistently rising. Making ATH close regularly and that is how it should be.
POSITIVES
Nifty ending above 15760-770 resistance line is a good thing.
Apart from the Metals family, SBIN, RELIANCE and INFOSYS helped Nifty remain at higher levels amidst expiry sell off that is customary in the last hour.
DIIs bought in excess of 2000 Crores to support the market which indicates that the short term up side is seen at 2-3%.
NEGATIVES
Yet another day when Nifty failed to hold on to the 15800+ levels and closed well below 15800. Such closes make it harder for the bulls to bounce back.
FMCG majors, HDFC twins, KOTAK and AXIS BANK dragged the indices and when HDFC twins are not on your side, this is what happens.
HDFC BANK barely managed to close above the earlier close, but is finding it hard to cross the 200 DMA which has been broken. So it looks like as if it is waiting for help from its sibling HDFC whose results are due on 02 Aug or from the other peers many of whom are themselves struggling.
TRADING RANGE FOR 30-07-21
Nifty support for now is at 15700-750. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again.
BANKNIFTY support range 34200-400 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break out or down, the range-bound behaviour is likely to continue.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Private banks other than ICICI BANK would need some kind of trigger to lift them from the levels where they are - actually, these make a good investment opportunity.
FIIs keep selling relentlessly and DIIs keep buying. This is quite interesting as the DIIs are betting on India and FIIs seem to be having some other plans.
Let us see where Nifty opens the account in Aug series and whether the FIIs become Net buyers from tomorrow.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
29-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Late night Technical analysis talk - 20 Stocks in 20 minsTrading ideology and some important key points to rem : ( Have a good trading session guys )
Sail trade: let it break 1hr Trianglepattern to initiate a good buy by respecting risk and holding it if it converts into a winning trade
Tata steel: Gave a breakout on 25 June on D chart and retest on 2 July then broke the major hurdle of 1180 levels, on 1hr a good long trade can be initiated there
until and unless it is above 1230 levels it's bullish and might rally for higher levels, let it create a good pattern or structure above 1230 to make it tradable
Bajaj Auto: Breakout of symmetrical triangle pattern for downside on 8 July led the trigger of a great fall, now it is creating a channel pattern on 1hr that to a downtrend parallel channel
Just dial: after a super move in the north direction the stock is resting on a good trendline, lets see if it creates a bullish green bar on D chart here, that would be our trade activation
JYOTHI LABS : Big broadening pattern, inside it gave a wedge pattern bullish side breakout with 3% candle small risk and hige rewards achieved on this trade, now touched the upper side of the broadening pattern and consolidating there
on 1hr it is making a really nice tradable pattern, if broken a trade can be planned out and trade with proper risk management rules
Motheron sumi : Stock is sideways on D chart btw the levels of 230 and 245 but also making a good trendline on 1hr that if broken with a close above 245 can be a really good long for higher levels, let it break first then will trade our plan
TCS : Multiple times taking support from the one good supportive trendline, again the stock is there creating a fresh moment for upside, trade is already activated here on 1hr TF with 2% risk and 6% rewards
TechM : gave a breakout of a very big broadening pattern also strong on weekly charts too, one can create a trade here only but the risk is 5.5% so rewards can be 6% or above, trade as per :)
Bandhan bank : The banking sector is a weak sector for quite a while now and Bandhan bank is just following them, on 21 June it gave a good breakout with volume and power but again came back to the price of 300, seems quite bearish
Zeel is creating a good symmetrical triangle, I would wait for the stock to come to a supportive trendline and let it make a bullish candle there or create a pattern thereon 1hr to trade it for the next leg of the symmetrical triangle
GSPL: Quite bullish stock multiple breakouts and retest zones created in the video too make you understand its bullishness, also on 1hr it is making a handsome pattern to trade on if broken with a good bullish candle, one should go long as per there setup and risk system
USHAMART : provided analysis yesterday, just a follow up on the idea that it gave a good breakout in today's running market and created a small retest zone there only then a good rally of 7% from the buy point, also closed strong on the D chart
APOLLO : It has given a good breakout of 20% on 29 April, mostly untradale to a lot of people but a stock that must be in your wathc list :) as after that reversal 20% candle, it is now making a good paralle channel on D chart that it is following judisicously
PIIND : Gave a superb breakout on 6/7 april on 1hr and 1D both, a pattern also called as inverted HnS, very effective bullish pattern, now the stock has rallied almsot 40% after it and respecting a good supportive trendline, it has touched it but with a big red candle, let it make a small but bullish
candle on D cahart first, then we will trade our plan
Apollotyres : Creating a good symmetrical traignle on D chart lets see if it can break it then will trade our plan of breakout trading with proper risk system
ACC : Gave a good move after the trendline tested again and a monthly strong bar too can be seen in ACC keep in watchlist
HAL : a good pattern on D chart of triangle type broken some days back and now retested too, but the candle is not that bullish still a trade can be on 1hr, but let it make a good pattern and structure above 1050 levels
TATASTEEL breakout on the way.I had earlier posted an idea on TATASTEEL on 13th June which was closed at cost. TATA STEEL has been in an uptrend, continuously forming higher lows. After the recent complex pullback, it seems rested and ready to move forward and challenge its highs and possibly make new ones. It has formed a continuation candle at the 20 EMA and is moving towards its all time high with above average volume. A trade can be taken with the following levels in mind.
LONG ABOVE : 1250
STOP LOSS : 1188
TARGET 1 : 1312
TARGET 2 : 1374
Initiate trade only if it maintains above the "long above" level for 15 minutes. I will update the idea as the trade develops.
TCS TRIPLE TOP PATTERN
A triple top is formed by three peaks moving into the same area, with pullbacks in between.
A triple top is considered complete, indicating a further price slide, once the price moves below pattern support.
A trader exits longs or enters shorts when the triple top completes.
If trading the pattern, a stop loss can be placed above resistance (peaks).
The estimated downside target for the pattern is the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout point.
How a Triple Top Works
The triple top pattern occurs when the price of an asset creates three peaks at nearly the same price level. The area of the peaks is resistance. The pullbacks between the peaks are called the swing lows. After the third peak, if the price falls below the swing lows, the pattern is considered complete and traders watch for a further move to the downside.
The three consecutive peaks make the triple top visually similar to the head and shoulders pattern; however, in this case, the middle peak is nearly equal to the other peaks rather than being higher. The pattern is also similar to the double top pattern, when the price touches the resistance area twice, creating a pair of high points before falling.
Tata Steel :: Swing Trading Setup :: Duration 2 WeeksAll the levels are mentioned on the chart
This is not a trade or investment suggestion/advice. A person should trade on his/her own analysis and risk appetite.
If you like my analysis then please, give a thumbs up and follow for more analytical charts
NIFTY METAL ABOUT TO GIVE BREAKOUT. TOP PICKS TO RIDE THE RALLY.NIFTY METAL IS ABOUT TO GIVE A STRONG TRIANGLE BREAKOUT AFTER CONSOLIDATION.
Top 3 picks are:
1) Tata Steel: Tata Steel shares have rallied 240% in the last one year on the back of rising steel prices. Tata Steel deleveraged its balance sheet. The company repaid Rs300 billion of its net debt in the last financial year. In its latest quarterly results, the company reported better than expected numbers on the back of improved realisations in the domestic market. The rally is going to resume in coming days.
2) SAIL: Shares of SAIL have been up almost 300% in the last one year. As the largest producer of steel in the country, the company was the beneficiary of soaring steel prices. With steel prices at a record high, the company is poised to post its best-ever EBITDA.
3) Hindustan Copper: Riding on the back of buoyant copper prices, Hindustan Copper (HCL) shares have jumped 330% in the last one year. HCL is the only vertically integrated copper producer in India engaged in a wide spectrum of activities ranging from mining, beneficiation, smelting, and refining. Goldman Sachs have both said copper prices could hit $15,000 a tonne in the coming years.
TATA STEEL: CALM BEFORE THE STORM?For those who have missed out the metals rally, the market still offers an opportunity to buy afresh. There is some steam left in metals. If you look at a 10-year average EV to EBITDA, we are still trading at 6.5 times. The 10-year average is 6.9. I think it will continue to go up. Buy tata steel at cmp for 1400 levels in short-term.
TATA STEEL BSL for BUYBuy Above 93.25
Targets :- 100 , 106
SL @ 86.20
** Only for Educational Purposes
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Tata Steel - Flag pattern🔴DISCLAIMER
***** It's just for an educational purpose and so you must also follow your own technical analysis before taking up the trade ******
Aggressive traders enter at the breakout and conservative traders may give entry after retracement (Retracement is optional, we cannot expect every stock to take a retest after the breakout, it may also continue to have its bullish pressure after the breakout)
After reaching our targets, trail your stop loss to get maximum profit from the stock in a single trade