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BANK NIFTY tears apart 37K, Lifts NIFTY past 17600NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -16-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17539.2 / 17644.6 / 17510.45 / 17629.5 H-L = 134 points VIX 14.41 / +4.95% FII DII: +826 Crores Likely open: Flat to mild positive. All eyes would be on BANK NIFTY - whether it can hold higher levels and attain ATH as the week draws to a close. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A mild gap-up open was immediately sold in to and the P Close was retested but then, NIFTY never looked back though the upside move was quite choppy when compared to BANK NIFTY. The daily chart indicates that there was a strong buying that led the rise to the levels above 17600 even though the range was somewhat less when compared to BANK NIFTY. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 47 ITC 34 ICICI BANK 24 SBI 23 HDFC BANK 15 TOTAL 143 The Draggers TCS 15 BPCL 12 INFOSYS 09 GRASIM 05 JSW STEEL 05 TOTAL 46 Lifter - Draggers = +97 BPCL turned ex-dividend so the fall. It is best to ignore the same. Once we do that, the strong upmove is explained easily. POSITIVES NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH. And both are above 17600. BANK NIFTY tore apart 37000-37200 resistance with fury and was responsible for lifting NIFTY along with RELIANCE. BANK NIFTY ended on a new ATH and so did SBIN. FIIs have bought in good numbers so the momentum is likely to continue in the short term. NEGATIVES INFOSYS keeps coming down. HDFC made a lower close than yesterday. VIX has gone up by almost 5%. TRADING RANGE FOR 17-09-21 17300-17350 is the new support base. For the resistances, we will have to let a few days go by to see how and where it gets formed. BANK NIFTY tore apart the barriers in typical style and is now facing resistance at 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS And as mentioned yesterday, the Banking giants roared and in style today to tear apart the resistance of 37000-37200 and the short covering may have fueled further upside in the index. The fury was evident as in the AM session, even when HDFC BANK was in the red, BANK NIFTY kept rising gradually and held on to the opening low. For the last 2-3 days I have been observing that HDFC BANK is unable to make a significant impact on the indices. I am not sure if the weight has changed or the other members of the indices group have gathered all-around support. This is a good sign as any dependency on one or two scrips is not a good sign from index strength POV. A few days ago, I made an entry into IDEA at 7.3 and then gradually added few shares with every rise. Today cumulative ROI was seen at 43%! On a scrip that had trouble all over at that time, but my decision was very simple - MA-based. So the next time when your process tells you to go long/short, just go ahead. Eventually, following the right process will lead you to the right outcome. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 16-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
NIFTY scales new peak and closes as well around the peakNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -02-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17095.4 / 17245.5 / 17059.7 / 17234.15 H-L = +186 points VIX 14.24 / +0.357% FII DII: +729 Crores Likely open: Positive but there may be consolidation taking place as the Net Volume of FIIs DIIs is not significant. And all eyes on where the week closes - above 17200? CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY made a new ATH and closed also at a new ATH which is closer to the ATH level indicating a strong close. However, NIFTY had almost retested the lows of yesterday in the opening candle itself but they smartly recovered within the first 5 minutes and then never looked back. The ride to the top was somewhat choppy and not smooth and the biggest move of the day happened in the first 5-minute candle itself. The rest were climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry. That also justifies the slight jump in the VIX. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 25 RELIANCE 18 HDFC LIFE 15 SHREE CEMENTS 13 HUL 10 TOTAL 81 The Draggers M&M 04 BAJAJ FINSERV 03 BAJAJ FINANCE 02 DIVIS LABS 02 TATA MOTORS 01 TOTAL 12 Lifter - Draggers = +69 There was not much negativity and that is what has propelled NIFTY to scale a new peak. POSITIVES Despite INFOSYS not being able to contribute, TCS led from the front and put up a great show of strength. Clearly, it has come a long way. The FMCG giant HUL too has been keeping pace which is a good sign. HDFC twins and RELIANCE also ended in the green. RELIANCE crossed 2300 but ended the day just below the line. FIIs DIIs are both Net Buyers. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY is finding it hard to cross the 37000 lines. MARUTI as well as TATA MOTORS are under some sort of pressure on account of the semiconductor news. These two need to move up firmly as they have been trading within a range for a while now. INFOSYS made a deep dive to 1663 and recovered in the late trade but closed a few points below its 20 DMA. On account of its weightage, it is important that it restores 1700+ levels for NIFTY to remain above 17200. TRADING RANGE FOR 03-09-21 17000-17300 is the range that I can think of for the final day of the week. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The tendency of a scrip to go below its key moving averages and then make an attempt to come back up is a good sign indicating that the selling pressure has been exhausted for now and renewed buying interest has taken place. This is what seems to be happening in INFOSYS. Tomorrow’s session will decide on whether it reclaims 1700 level or faces some hurdle around the 20 DMA resting at 1690. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 02-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Back to the old tussle - FIIs Vs DIIs and Nifty slipsNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -01-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17185.6 / 17225.75 / 17055.05 / 17076.25 H-L = 170 points VIX 14.19 / -2.27% FII DII: +621 Crores Likely open: Positive and interesting to see how Nifty reacts as this would be the first expiry in the 17000 zones. The big Q is will it hold the key level? CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY made yet another high and a higher low as well. The higher high could not be sustained due to intense selling pressure from some of the heavyweights which dragged the index below 17100. The daily charts indicate that there was selling pressure but the volume is not higher than yesterday’s session. This is more of a profit booking drive that has been undertaken by the FIIs who have been consistently buying in the cash market for the last several sessions. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters ASIAN PAINTS 11 NESTLE 09 RELIANCE 07 SBI LIFE 07 AXIS BANK 06 TOTAL 40 The Draggers INFOSYS 25 HDFC 22 TCS 19 BAJAJ FINSERV 14 TATA STEEL 07 TOTAL 87 Lifter - Draggers = -47 Of the 55 negative points, 47 have come per above. This is the might of these scrips. POSITIVES NIFTY hit another ATH above 17200. BANK NIFTY ended above 36500 and ended in the good green despite heavy selling in NIFTY. RELIANCE did not end in red. HDFC BANK more or less held its ground. NEGATIVES IT heavyweights have been witnessing selling pressure for the last few sessions. NIFTY failed to close above the P Close. NIFTY fell close to 17050 and tomorrow is expiry so volatility may be high. DIIs have begun banking gains which led to selling pressure. TRADING RANGE FOR 02-09-21 16950-17250 is the range that I can think of for the week. NIFTY may consolidate between these levels until either is broken on a closing basis. BANK NIFTY support base moves up to 36200-400 and resistance at 36800-37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS With the change in the lot size of NIFTY from Aug 2021, NIFTY has become more volatile and now with it being above 17000, a 150 point move on either side is also less than 1% move which is what needs to be digested by the traders. It has now started giving the kind of moves that BANK NIFTY used to give. Around March 2020, BANK NIFTY had reached levels around 16500-17000. Today, NIFTY is at 17000+ and we are around 17 months away from those days. This is the power of the stock market. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 01-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
FIIs show their might as NIFTY surges past 17100 with easeNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -31-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16947.5 / 17153.5 / 16915.85 / 17132.2 H-L = 238 points VIX 14.52 / +9.01% FII DII: +1909 Crores Likely open: Positive but profit booking may kick in if Global cues do not support. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS And the surge continued today as well and NIFTY finally sailed past 17000 with relative ease and ended comfortably above 17100. It appeared that it may retest levels below 16900, but then it quickly recovered and then never looked back except for the lunch session quick fall which was bought in ti by the bears. NIFTY is likely to set its own course as it builds its bases in the newer zones. The daily charts indicate a strong bullish candle. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters BAJAJ FINANCE 38 TCS 16 BAJAJ FINSERV 16 HDFC 14 BHARTI AIRTEL 12 TOTAL 96 The Draggers RELIANCE 07 NESTLE 04 TATAMOTORS 02 INDUSIND 01 BPCL 01 TOTAL 15 Lifter - Draggers = +81 The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it close above 17100. POSITIVES NIFTY crossed 17000 and closed above 17100 with ease. BANK NIFTY finally emerged out of the resistances and soared which helped NIFTY. Broader market participation resulted in NIFTY scaling higher levels with relative ease. FIIs are back with a bang in the buying business and clearly, this had a positive impact on NIFTY. Top 5 NIFTY heavyweights ended the month at their respective ATH which is a great positive. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY kept underperforming and had a very narrow range for the day. VIX is up 9% as shorters would have been forced to run cover. RELIANCE as usual chose not to participate in the rally and this alone has the potential to be a spoilsport for NIFTY. DIIs have sold heavily indicating that from their viewpoint, the short-term top is nearing or has been reached. TRADING RANGE FOR 01-09-21 At best 17000 base is what I can think of for now. We will need to see how the index moves during the week before deciding on the levels. BANK NIFTY support base stays at 35400-500 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS Top 5 heavyweights of NIFTY recorded ATH close on monthly candles. Like RELIANCE, KOTAK BANK also has the tendency to play its own game. Except that today HDFC BANK also joined it and saved BANK NIFTY from slipping from the lower levels. BANK NIFTY has formed a Doji candle on the daily chart with good volumes. It is a sign of caution or a positive move ahead. We will need to wait and watch. As long as HDFC BANK stays positive, it will handle BANK NIFTY on the upside. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 31-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
NIFTY ends the week on a high note at 16705NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16642.55 / 16722.05 / 16565.7 / 16705.2 H-L = 157 points VIX 13.41 / -0.96% FII DII: +868 Crores Likely open: Positive but may get sold into and then recovery is likely. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY not only ended the day but also the week at a record high of 16705.2. It has made a higher high, highest close but with a lower high. After a flat sort of opening, it was sold in to and then rose sharply and after clearing 16650, it kept climbing gradually through the day. On the daily as well as the weekly charts, NIFTY has formed nice bullish candles rejecting the lower levels around 16550-600. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 09 LT 09 BAJAJ FINSERV 07 SBI LIFE 06 HDFC 05 TOTAL 36 The Draggers INFOSYS 12 HDFC BANK 05 RELIANCE 02 NESTLE 02 M&M 01 TOTAL 19 Lifter - Draggers = +17 The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it pass the ATH level and close also at a new ATH. POSITIVES NIFTY ended the day as well as the week at a new ATH and above 16700. DIIs have bought significantly at ATH which is a big plus indicating that there is good upside potential in-store in the coming weeks/months. VIX has cooled down. 39/50 scrips ended in the green. MARUTI which had been falling consistently ended in a minor positive. This could have a sentimental impact on the other sectoral scrips as well. NEGATIVES INFOSYS is showing signs of fatigue in the short term. RELIANCE as well appears to be losing momentum as it approaches the resistance area around 2250. BANK NIFTY continues to underperform. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 30-8-21 The Nifty baseline moves up to 16500-550. The resistances are not known for now. BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-35200 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS The new SEBI regulations re no leverage come into force from 01 Sep and this could have an impact on Options pricing as more traders may switch to Options from EQUITY intraday trading as the margin benefit gets reduced. UPSTOX has delayed intraday EQ profit credit from T+1 days to T+2 days to prevent a potential margin shortfall and resultant penalty. If others also follow suit, this could create more pressure on the intraday EQ-only traders to move to Options. Even when NIFTY is at a new ATH, several scrips look beaten down and far from their ATH. This could be a double-edged sword for the scrips as well as for NIFTY. The key to further upside in NIFTY is held by RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and BANK NIFTY, which has been under pressure for a long time. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Price Action with RSI and MACD - Trade with ConvictionFor the purpose of explaining the combined use of these indicators, I have taken the example of TCS - TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES, which recently gave a clear breakout. Know your Lines! - By joining the recent highs and recent lows of a share price, we can identify if the share has a well tested Support & Resistance or not. I prefer those with a clear defined pattern simply because all traders are looking out for these levels and there is a pretty good chance they will hold good, if not, you will know its time to exit. Catch the Support! - The key to any exchange profit is BUYING AT A LOW and SELLING AT A HIGH. While it might sound obvious, majority of people lose out because they FOMO in at a HIGH and then Sell at a Low to cut losses. Classic Failure Strategy. It is pretty normal if a stock is all abuzz in the market, but do not enter it based on the buzz, check if its already too late or not. If at all, buy at a pullback at Fibonacci levels 0.68 or 0.50 ( Higher Success Rate levels ) One Eye on the MACD! - What makes an Indicator exceptional is the number of people using it. RSI, MACD, STOCH are like the biblical indicators which you certainly want to check before taking a position. When the blue line of MACD cuts the signal line from below, and the price is around its support, chances are you will not repent going long. RSI is your best friend! - RSI is very crucial to avoid buying at a high. When it is above 70( I prefer 80 ), it is better to wait for a pullback. In a bullish market, it usually bounces back from 50, but again it differs from share to share. Identify its key support and a bounce from that level around the price support when MACD is bullish, means its a good set up for a Long Position. I also prefer to watch out for RSI and MACD divergence to see the momentum of the price. If the RSI or MACD is making lower HIGHS while the Share Price is making Higher HIGHS, it means the momentum is weaking and one must watchout for a nice pullback. To summarise, Identify the Support and Resistance, Check if MACD has turned bullish when the pricce has pulled back to its support, Check if RSI has bounced from its support and preferably above 50 ( It means bulls are in control ). If everything checks out, it should be an ideal long setup. I hope you take back something from the explanation, This strategy has almost everytime worked for me. I hope it does for you too. Keep Learning :)
NSE:TCSEducation
by Aayush_Rungta
23