Nifty 16130 not outNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15951.55 / 16146.9 / 15914.35 / 16130.75
Trading Range Low to High: 232 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 116 points
India VIX: 13.75 / +7.34%
FII DII activities: +1818 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
What an impressive rally from Nifty - even on a 5-minute chart, only once it closed below the 20 MA and then never looked back!
Nifty is now in the proverbial “uncharted territory”.
The rally looks towering in comparison to other days when the range was becoming narrower by each passing session.
There is nothing more that can be said as we have to now see how the week 1 of Aug 21 ends.
TOP 3 LOSERS
JSW STEEL - The fall is insignificant as such moves are expected when a scrip is in the resistance zone, but the overall positivity in the market has made it look the topmost loser.
BAJAJ AUTO - Even when Nifty ended on an ATH close, it could start the scooter for a good ride up and above. Something is missing from its body and unless that is in place, the scooter may not start rolling again.
SHREECEM - Yesterday’s top gainer is today’s loser. The typical resistance zone play seems to be in action. Wait and watch for now.
TOP 3 GAINERS
TITAN - Yesterday, it was gainer # 2, and today, it is the topmost gainer recording yet another ATH close for the scrip as it along with Nifty, sails in to the unknown and in my view, untapped territory.
HDFC - The scrip that made all the difference in the mood today. It rose and flew up like a phoenix and took the whole market along with it. Interestingly, it is far away from its ATH and as of now, it is sitting right in the resistance zone so good volumes done today may help it hit out of the hurdles.
INDUSIND BANK - The news re getting enrolled with RBI for Govt related transactions seems to have lifted this counter from the negative closes that it had been experiencing for the last several days.
POSITIVES
The index heavyweights have woken up from the slumber and all together and in style so Nifty could scale past 16100 as well without an issue.
HDFC, RELIANCE, SBIN, AXIS BANK, TATA MOTORS, TCS, MARUTI, & INFOSYS all have contributed significantly which is a big positive.
Bank Nifty closed above 35000 and has also closed the day above 20 as well as 50 DMA which is a good sign.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK under-performed yet again and in fact, it threatened to retest 1400 at the open but then recovered and moved sideways.
It is still a few points away from the 200 DMA so it has the power to upset any plans that the other scrips may have to take Nifty up and above.
Whereas Nifty has scaled ATH close, Bank Nifty is far away and is clearly under-performing.
TRADING RANGE FOR 04-08-21
Nifty support is now at 16000-15950. The resistance zone is not known and would be driven by Bank Nifty or any other index heavyweight.
BANKNIFTY support range gets upgraded to 34800-35000. There are many resistances ahead - 35400-500-650-750.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Finally, FIIs have managed to end up as Net Buyers for +2000 Crores. This indicates that some more up move is in the offing.
DIIs have started the process of booking gains so tomorrow HDFC may come under pressure as this is where they attack when FIIs turn buyers.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
3-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
TCS
TCS: Rising wedge breakdown?A decently medium term upward trendline originating from November 2020 has recently been broken by TCS. In fact, it seems to have started respecting recently formed downward trendline. After the recent pullback to the trendline and the averages, it is seeing the beginning of another bearish leg downwards.
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The pattern which has formed resembles a rising wedge and price seems to be breaking down from it. The bearish volume on the latest bar is also above average. It is possible that the downward momentum may continue further for some time.
The 20 and the 50 EMA which act as support during an uptrend also seem to be reversing their roles. They are exactly from where price is reacting to the downside, so they may be turning into resistance.
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Price could see a correction to the round figure level of about 3000. A positional short could be initiated if price sustains below the "SHORT BELOW" level for 15 minutes.
SHORT BELOW: 3162
STOP LOSS: 3223
TARGET 1: 3106
TARGET 2: 3045
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Plan your trade and manage risk properly.
Like and follow for more. :)
Nifty Eyeing 15900+ close with a 100+ point bounceNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -02-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15874.9 / 15892.9 / 15834.65 / 15885.15
Trading Range Low to High: 58 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 29 points
India VIX: 12.81 / +0.08%
FII DII activities: -34 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Once again the opening 5-minute candle had movements that almost covered the grinding moves of the entire day.
And yet another close which is around the opening high although for good reasons it is slightly above the opening high.
Nifty crawled through the day after opening on a strong note except the usual FII sell-off time of 1400h when it fell 40 odd points but recovered sharply to close at higher levels.
Nifty has now made higher highs and higher lows and has taken support above the 20 DMA so that is likely to act as a support going forward.
TOP 3 LOSERS
UPL - After breaching the 50 DMA on Friday, it fell further as it failed to even breach the earlier close. The RSI on daily charts has fallen significantly and if it does not bounce off from here which is the mini support area, further drop to 745-50 area may be on the cards.
TATA STEEL - After a dream run, the scrip encountered profit booking on the 2nd day in running as it failed to retest the Friday high and even breached the low. RSI is still bullish so the overall trend may be intact.
BAJAJ FINSERV - Though unrelated to TATA STEEL, it has identical candles and the reading is also similar.
TOP 3 GAINERS
SHREECEM - An usual candidate for the spot, it has made a good move with volume and momentum after breaching the 50 DMA. It is now right in the resistance zone but the force with which it has risen indicates that it may clear it this time.
TITAN - Another infrequent visitor to the spot, it is now back in the resistance zone but the volumes are not high so wait and watch for now.
EICHER MOTORS - Yet another infrequent visitor to this club, it has taken support from the mini base and is now heading into the resistance of 20 DMA. It needs to be seen whether it clears or fails to do so.
POSITIVES
HDFC did not behave in an unruly manner post its results and managed to end the day on the 200 DMA with a spinning top candle with higher volume. This helped Nifty bounce back from the lows.
RELIANCE, INFOSYS, TCS, AXISBANK & MARUTI supported Nifty and helped it stay well above the opening low.
Nifty has finally managed to clear 15835 with a good distance and it took support from the line as it was the low for the day.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, and KOTAK BANK underperformed yet again. KOTAK BANK appeared to be doing well, but was inspired by the negativity in HDFC BANK and fell from the day high in late trades.
Nifty could not even retest 15900 levels and turned around from 15892 which indicates that FIIs are sitting with selling volumes around that level and unless a strong gap-up with momentum is seen on 3-8-21, we may once again be in a range-bound zone.
TRADING RANGE FOR 03-08-21
Nifty support, for now, is at 15770-800-835. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again unless a close above 16000 takes place.
BANKNIFTY support range 34400-500 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break-out or down, the range-bound behavior is likely to continue.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
FIIs relentless selling even on a day when Nifty ended +122 points. Today, for a change, DIIs have almost matched their buying with FIIs selling. I am really curious to know how come to these end up so close on many days - of course in the opposite direction?
FIIs would have bought in huge quantities over the last several months that they are still selling when Nifty is now 100+ points away from 16000.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
2-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
TCS trading below 50MAFor quite sometime, TCS moves below the 50MA taking a support from the trendline and zooming to trendline on the top. For confirmation, its advised to wait for a positive momentum in Nifty50 to see a positive trend TCS.
For secondary confirmation, wait for TCS to move up above 50 MA for a positional target at the trendline. The same can be seen using the 1h time frame.
Please note: This is not an investment advise, just analyzing the chart from technical stand-point. Also, TCS is a slow moving/consolidating zone right now.
Trading Opportunities for W/B 02-08-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 02-08-21
INTENT
This is a new series of periodical posts where I would share the scrips that I come across and find good to keep on my radar for the next trading session/s. The post may not be a daily feature as it depends on whether I am able to find some opportunities.
I will only be sharing the time frame and the script name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favourite indicators and check it out if any of these fit your trade plan.
Whenever possible, a corresponding video would also be shared so that the reader can look at the charts and listen to the commentary as and when needed.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 02-08-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME
CIPLA
COAL INDIA
HDFC BANK
HEROMOTOCO
TCS
AURO PHARMA
CADILA
CHALET
GLENMARK
JUBILANT PHARMA
L&TFH
VOLTAS
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD-
I could not find anything interesting here as all the sectors seem to be already up so either a fresh breakout above 16000 or below 15500 may give some opportunities at a sector level.
During the week, the universe of my stock search is limited to Nifty, Banknifty, and my holdings only. I expand the base for the weekly review so you may not see many names appearing here and may see repeats as well.
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both the lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
There is also a video link available in the article. It is related to my son’s video content where he does a weekly wrap-up. You may like to watch the video as well. The contents are different and not always the same.
I hope you are able to make the most of this new initiative.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
25-07-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
TCS - HOLDING ON FOR DEAR LIFE ?Trading in Bullish Channel
Formed Bullish Hammer
MFI has bottomed out
SqzMom has started to turn Bullish
VixFix could signal completed bottom anytime now
Looks sorted if the current trend support holds tomorrow and day after
Stop upon clear breakdown below trend support on EOD basis
TCS SWINGAS PER THE CHART THERE IS A CHANCE OF TCS SWING TRADE
TCS IS TRADING BETWEEN THE ZONE FOR QUIT A LONG TIME
POSITIVE CROSSOVER ON MACD
ENTRY ARROUND 3190-3205
SL - BELOW 3110
TARGET - AT LEAST 3400( IF BREAKS ON THE UPPER SIDE OF THE RANGE TARGET MIGHT INCREASE AS WELL)
*# THIS IS NOT BUY/SELL CALL ITS MY OBSERVATION, PLEASE DO YOUR ANALYSAIS BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE#*
TCS Right Time to Buy For Long Term InvestmentThis is the chart of TCS
You can see the share is support in the various time of 200ma in the 4hr Chart, this is also visible in the daily chart.
at this time IT Sector is outperform the Nifty, My View this is Right time to Buy this Stock. you can see the RSI Divergence in the chart.
TCS Wedge Pattern- Go Long- Possible BreakoutsThe Following Chart is of TCS, Which Shows Possible short term reversals and Possible Breakouts on the Stronger Resistance Level @3418 which itself is gonna be out 1st Target, If it breaks this level then expect a strong uptrend. Hold Long.
Do follow for more trading setups like these
Thanks, if you have any queries/suggestions related to above pattern, feel free to type below in the comment section.
Trading Opportunities for W/B 26-7-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 26-07-21
INTENT
This is a new series of periodical posts where I would share the scrips that I come across and find good to keep on my radar for the next trading session/s. The post may not be a daily feature as it depends on whether I am able to find some opportunities.
I will only be sharing the time frame and the script name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check it out if any of these fit your trade plan.
Whenever possible, a corresponding video would also be shared so that the reader can look at the charts and listen to the commentary as and when needed.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR 26-07-21 to 30-07-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME
KOTAK BANK
ONGC
TCS
SIEMENS
INOX LEISURE
JUBILANT PHARMA
L&TFH
LA OPALA
LIC HOUSING
SADBHAV
TWL
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD-
I could not find anything interesting here as all the sectors seem to be already up so either a fresh breakout above 16000 or below 15500 may give some opportunities at a sector level.
During the week, the universe of my stock search is limited to Nifty, Banknifty, and my holdings only. I expand the base for the weekly review so you may not see many names appearing here and may see repeats as well.
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both the lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
There is also a video link available in the article. It is related to my son’s video content where he does a weekly wrap-up. You may like to watch the video as well. The contents are different and not always the same.
I hope you are able to make the most of this new initiative.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
25-07-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
TCS Entering in 5th Wave MoveAs per the Analysis, TCS has completed the Complex correction of the 4th Wave & May enter into the 5th Wave.
SO one can take a position at 3286 medians of the previous big red candle & low of wave E as STop loss. Cash position for target 4000.
Technical Indicator
Dow Theory- HH & LH Pattern- Bullish
Bollinger Bands- UP Tick
RSI- Above 40 - Support to Bullish
MACD- Bearish Now but above 3286 it will Bullish & Show Uptick sign.
CHart Pattern- Flag & Pole in Lower time Frame- Good for Bullish momentum