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Morning Mantra - 24th March 2023Dear All, So, finally once again we had seen the magic of 17180 level . As even after making a high of 17205.40, Nifty had ultimately given us a closing of 17076.90 Today will somehow be a very crucial day, where the bulls are waiting for a closing of above 17180. Because for the past consecutive 2 days , Nifty tried its best to cross this Resistance level of 17180 . But had somehow failed on a closing basis. So, as of now, we are still with our words to continue following the Cherry Picking strategy, with the support of 16800 on a closing basis. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
GBPUSD runs into key resistance as BoE rate hike loomsGBPUSD pokes a 10-month-old descending resistance line as the Cable bulls brace for the Bank of England (BoE) updates. Given the pair’s successful trading above the key DMAs and a clear rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-September 2022 downturn, the buyers are likely to overcome the stated trend line resistance, currently around 1.2340. The same, if backed by the hawkish BoE updates, could allow the buyers to cross the multiple hurdles near the 1.2445-50 region. Following that, the May 2022 peak surrounding 1.2665 could gain the market’s attention. On the flip side, the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA restrict short-term GBPUSD downside near 1.2140 and 1.1900 respectively. Also acting as immediate support is the 1.2000 psychological magnet, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1775. In a case where the Cable bears keep the reins past 1.1775, joined by the BoE’s disappointment, tops marked in September and October of the last year, around 1.1735 and 1.1645 in that order, could act as intermediate halts during a likely fall towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1500. To sum up, GBPUSD is likely to rise further and has a price-positive technical set-up but the upside momentum needs validation from the BoE.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls approach strong resistance area on Fed dayEURUSD stays firmer for the fourth consecutive week as traders prepare for the key Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on early Wednesday. The major currency pair’s latest run-up could be linked to a successful break of the 200-SMA. However, a 12-day-old ascending triangle can join the overbought RSI and a horizontal area comprising multiple hurdles marked since late January to challenge the Euro buyers between 1.0790 and 1.0805. In a case where the quote rises past 1.0805, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-March downturn, near 1.0835, may act as an extra check towards the north before highlighting the 1.0920-30 resistance zone comprising the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, EURUSD bears could stay off the table unless the quote remains above the stated triangle’s support line, around 1.0700 by the press time. Following that, the 1.0570 and 1.0530 levels may act as intermediate stops during the quote’s likely slump toward the monthly low near 1.0515. In a case where the Euro bears dominate past 1.0515, the YTD low marked in January around 1.0480 may act as the last defense of the buyers, a break of which might direct sellers to the November 2022 low surrounding 1.0290. Overall, EURUSD buyers appear to run up out of steam on a crucial day but the bears need validation from 1.0700 and the Federal Reserve both.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD appears well-set for further downside towards 1.3500USDCAD justifies a downside break of a five-week-old ascending trend channel, as well as downbeat RSI and MACD signals, despite marching towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October-November 2022 downside, near 1.3690 ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. Should the inflation gauge suggests further rate hikes from the BoC, as it reiterated the readiness to resume the rate hike trajectory if needed, the Loonie pair will have a further downside to trace. In that case, a convergence of the 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, close to 1.3500, will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers. Following that, the previous resistance line from October 2022 and the 200-DMA, respectively around 1.3430 and 1.3340, may lure the bears. Alternatively, softer inflation data may trigger the USDCAD pair’s corrective bounce. However, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to 1.3800 at the latest, holds the key to the buyer’s entry. Should the quote rises past 1.3800, the monthly peak surrounding 1.3865 and the 2022 peak of 1.3977 may test the bulls ahead of directing them to the stated channel’s top line, near the 1.4000 round figure. To sum up, USDCAD is likely to decline further as the key Canadian inflation data looms. Even if the statistics disappoint the Loonie pair bears, the life of a corrective bounce appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
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USDJPY bears appear tiring as the Fed week beginsUSDJPY marked the biggest weekly loss since early January despite trading within a one-week-long descending triangle. Apart from the bullish chart formation, sluggish MACD and nearly oversold RSI (14) also challenge the Yen pair sellers. That said, the stated triangle’s bottom line, around 131.40, acts as immediate support for the bears to watch before targeting the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March upside, near 130.15. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 130.15, and also breaks the 130.00 round figure, the odds of witnessing a slump towards the lows marked in February and January, respectively near 128.00 and 127.20, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a sustained break of 132.60 offers a bullish chart confirmation, which in turn suggests a theoretical target of 136.50. However, the 200 and 100 SMAs, respectively around 133.80 and 135.30, could test the USDJPY buyers. Following that, the theoretical target of 136.50 and a previous support line from early February, near 137.70, could lure the pair buyers. Overall, USDJPY is likely bracing for recovery but the stated triangle’s resistance line, as well as the key SMAs could challenge the run-up.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers brace for fresh 2023 highHaving successfully bounced off the 200-day EMA, the Gold buyers poke a four-month-old support-turned-resistance line as bulls await final clues for the next week’s Fed meeting. Given the overbought RSI conditions, the metal buyers appear to run out of steam and can keep struggling with the immediate hurdle surrounding $1,930. Even if the quote crosses that previous support line, the year-to-date (YTD) high of near $1,960 can act as an extra filter toward the north. It should be noted, however, that a clear run-up beyond $1,960 enables the bullion buyers to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion of late September 2022 to February 2023 moves, near $2018. On the flip side, pullback moves could aim for the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near $1,877. Any further downside, though, will need validation from the early March swing high near $1,858, a break which makes the Gold price vulnerable to retesting the 200-EMA support, around $1,810 at the latest. It’s worth noting that a clear break of $1,810 will need validation from November 2022 peak surrounding $1,786 to convince XAUUSD bears. Overall, the Gold price remains firmer but the bulls need a breathing gap before leaping toward the fresh YTD high.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears take a break ahead of ECBEURUSD posted the biggest daily slump in six months as Credit Suisse headlines fanned risk aversion on Wednesday. The fall, however, needs validation from the 1.0555-50 support confluence, comprising the 100-DMA and 14-week-old ascending support line, as well as the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting. That said, a clear break of 1.0550, accompanied by a disappointment from the ECB could quickly drag the major currency pair towards the 200-DMA support of 1.0320. However, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s September 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 1.0460, could act as an intermediate halt during the anticipated slump. On the contrary, recovery moves require hawkish commentary, as well as a rate hike decision, from the ECB to aim for the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.0725. Following that, the mid-February swing high of around 1.0810 could test the EURUSD bulls ahead of directing the run-up towards the previous monthly high, as well as the 2023 peak, of near 1.1035. Overall, EURUSD is on the bear’s radar but the quote’s further downside hinges on the key fundamental events and important support zone break.
by MTradingGlobal
Morning Mantra - 16th March 2023Dear All, As we had mentioned in our Yesterday's Morning Mantra that Nifty is now ready to taste the level of 16800 , the same was accepted by the market itself. As even after a beautiful gap up opening and a high of 17211.35 , Nifty had once again failed to sustain the level of 17180 . Well as of now, we will have to keep patience and watch for the level of 16800 as a support. Currently, Nifty is under pressure and only a good reversal pattern can now reduce it. So, tighten your seat belt for these 2 crucial days and be stock specific , until any new positive indication. Regards , Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTY
by alokdaiya
Hammer PatternHammer candlesticks typically occur after a price decline. They have a small real body and a long lower shadow. The hammer candlestick occurs when sellers enter the market during a price decline. By the time of market close, buyers absorb selling pressure and push the market price near the opening price. The close can be above or below the opening price, although the close should be near the open for the real body of the candlestick to remain small. The lower shadow should be at least two times the height of the real body. Hammer candlesticks indicate a potential price reversal to the upside. The price must start moving up following the hammer; this is called confirmation. Script = Kotak Mahindra Bank Time Frame = 15 min
NSE:KOTAKBANKLong
by Jainshashwat
Morning Mantra - 14th March 2023Dear All, Just like we had stated in the yesterday’s Morning Mantra update , that Nifty can create some panic around the level of 17300 and that it can take a support at around 17180 , which will work as a speed breaker in between the levels of 17300 and 16800 level. Similarly , we did witness almost the approximate figure of 17154 , which is very near to 17180. So, it is expected that 17180-17100 are the levels, around which Nifty will consolidate as of now. Wherein, below 17180, 16800 will be the probable level around which Nifty can trade once again. Furthermore, 17300-16800 will be the new range for Nifty as of now. Besides, if Nifty takes a support at 17180, then we are quite positive that we can once again reach the level of above 17300. Until then, continue being stock specific and keep patience . Regards , Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya