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Bank Nifty roars, so does India Vix. What Next?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 5-1-22 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17820.10 H 17944.70 L 17748.85 C 17925.25 EOD +120.00 points / +0.67% SGX Nifty 5-1-22 @ 1830h = -8 FII DII = Not yet available CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened flat and then there was a mini sell-off as it tried to trade above the previous close. However, it found support around 17750 and then moved up a 100+ points and found resistance around 17850 and was back to 17800. It then never looked back and made a steady climb to hit the day high and close just below the level and above 17900. Both the indices have made higher highs and higher lows which is a good sign. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 99 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 45 Net = +54 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 606 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 00 Net = +606 POSITIVES Bank Nifty has closed comfortably above 37000. Nifty ended the day despite pressure from IT leaders and HDFC, above 17900. Bullishness in Banking & Finance scrips was strong. FIIs have bought in excess of 1,200 Crores. NEGATIVES IT leaders dragged Nifty - Infosys in particular which was a negative yesterday as well. Spike in India Vix as it closed above 17. TRADING RANGE FOR 05 JAN 22 Nifty support = 17400-500 Nifty resistance = 17950-18000-18100 Bank Nifty Support = 36000-200 Bank Nifty resistance = 37800-38000-200 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS The most surprising fact of the day was that India Vix has roared along with Bank Nifty. It is an uncommon occurrence and is signaling that there is panic setting in at higher levels. Could this be on account of the rising Covid related uncertainties? Nifty underperformed Bank Nifty on account of Infosys, TCS, and HDFC. The good thing is that the higher low of Nifty is now 150+ points above. This indicates the underlying bullishness at lower levels. Bank Nifty made a bounce of 1100 points from the day low which is good and that is the reason why it was able to outperform Nifty today. The top 3 leaders contributed 600+ of these indicating that the index wide bullishness was good. Of the top 5 draggers of Nifty, the first 4 are from the IT pack. And all the top 5 lifters of Nifty are from Banking & Finance. So it was Banking & Finance Vs IT. What do you feel about this? Here is the link to the video: youtu.be Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 5-1-22 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Data Driven Analysis of Indices for the week & year ending 31-12DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 31-12-21 This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form. I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week. Important - Nifty as well as Bank Nifty have ended the week on a positive note, however, this positivity comes with increased number of Covid cases in India and also overseas. I am in no way making an attempt to create panic, but I will still be cautious as the markets have sold-off in a big way for no obvious reason - for example on 20-12-21 when Nifty hit a low of 16410. In my view, a weekly close above 17625-50 is when things may seem to be stable. BANK NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364 EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 35597 on 31-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 34233 on 27-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 1364 points or 3.98% from the lowest level In the last week, Bank Nifty has made an upward move of 625 points or 1.79% which is refreshingly a good sign. Insight: Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 31264 Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 35481 Change - 4218 % 13.49 NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166 EOD on 31-12-21 = 17354 up by 188 points or 1.09% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 17400.80 on 31-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 16833.20 on 27-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 567 points or 3.37% from the lowest level In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 350 points or 2.06% which indicates a good positive change in the short term trend. Insight: Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 13982 Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 17354 Change -3372 % 24.12 FII - DII DATA: DEC 2021 FIIs = -35,409 Crores DIIs = +30.675 Crores Net is = -4,734 Crores As mentioned last week, there was a slow down already in FII selling and it continued during the last week which brought about some relief to the downward biased market moves. Conclusion: On an annual basis, Nifty has clearly outperformed Bank Nifty which has been able to perform just above half the % gain than that of Nifty. This is indicating a very depressive picture of what happened in 2021. At the same time, I view this as an opportunity for Bank Nifty to outperform and become the recovery engine for the overall market. FIIs have turned net buyers for 2 days in the week and only once in the week their selling was more than 1,000 crores. We have to see how the next week goes. If FIIs keep buying even in the next week, then the market mood would change for the better with some sort of certainty. Insight: India Vix as on 31-12-20 21.09 India Vix as on 31-12-21 16.22 Change 04.87 % 23.09 The above is a significant drop over a period of one year and explains the logic behind the rise in the Indices. Only Nifty has a corresponding increase to the drop in India Vix as Bank Nifty has remained under pressure for most part of the year. Since this week’s analysis is also yearly analysis, I will share a separate post and a video that takes care of the Leaders & Laggards of Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. And that is why I have not compiled separate conclusions for the two indices. On a broader scale for the next few days, it is important for Nifty to end a week above 17650 and for Bank Nifty it is important to close a week above 36800-37000. This is when the indices are likely to shift to the next higher gear. Here is the video link: Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves. Happy Trading/Investing! Umesh 31-12-21
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
TRIGYN | INVESTMENT OF THE WEEK | HOW TO FIND SHORT TERM TRADESNSE:TRIGYN HOW TO FIND SHORT TERM INVESTMENT STOCKS Step 1 | TREND | Find Good Stocks in Uptrend. Don't try to buy Cheap stocks in Downtrend. 2. Find the Recent Swing lows and Highs. For Small Stop loss and Entry Points. 3. Find Next Resistance for 1st Target . Check the Minimum Risk Reward in the Stock. 4. If Everything Looks good. Decide the Trade Position size. Best for New Investors . Dont invest more than 2% in any trade. 5. After Entering the trade watch the stock regularly. Review the Positions and Exit the stock if stop loss hit. Dont Hope in Loss. Also 1 of the Most important point. if you are investing always check some basic fundamentals of the company too. See if you are buying Profit making company and not getting trapped in loss making business. Also check some important ratios Like pe and eps etc. so you can judge the value in company at cmp. and not buy costly company at costly price. LIke in this stock the company is trading below its book value. ie we are getting a good company at discounted price. which is good trade mostly like. when our risk reward ratio and trend is also in our favor. After all this if stock moves in your favor and makes money. Book Profits on Target dont be greedy. But you can hold some quantity for more profits and as long term investments. Hope this short education blog will be somewhat helpful . especially if you are new investor. I will try to share something education every weekend. Lets Earn while Learing. So Stay connected. and share with your friends if you find this info useful. See you next week. #MARKET_MAGIC | #TRADEWORLD1
NSE:TRIGYNEducation
by PRINCE-10
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