GOLD before US Jobs & Inflation Data: Key Scenarios?🌍 Macro Context & Market Expectations
This week, the market is closely focused on:
US employment data
US inflation data (CPI / PCE)
Additionally, traders are monitoring:
Developments in US–Iran negotiations
US Supreme Court rulings related to trade tariffs
→ These factors may amplify short-term volatility, especially around key technical levels.
📈 Trend & Market Structure
Medium-term trend: BULLISH
Price has rebounded strongly from the ~4,700 low to around 5,04x
Last week printed a bullish Hammer candle, confirming long-term buying interest
On the H12 timeframe, the A–B–C corrective structure is not yet complete
Short term: price is consolidating within a tightening range, waiting for a clear breakout
🔑 Key Price Levels
🟢 Support:
5,000 | 4,950 | 4,930 | 4,850 | 4,700 | 4,650
🔴 Resistance:
5,050 | 5,095 | 5,100 | 5,110 | 5,200 | 5,300
🎯 Primary Scenarios
✅ Bullish continuation
Price holds above 4,930 and breaks decisively above 5,050
→ Potential upside toward 5,095 – 5,100, and further to 5,200 – 5,300
❌ Failed breakout / Pullback
Price fails to clear 5,050 and closes below 4,930
→ Likely correction toward 4,850, with deeper pullback to 4,700 – 4,650
🧭 Trading Strategy
Prioritize buy-the-dip opportunities in line with the trend
Avoid counter-trend shorts unless clear reversal signals appear at resistance
Stay patient and avoid FOMO — only trade when risk–reward is clearly defined
Long
