XAUUSD – H1 Sideways, Priority is Trading at Liquidity Zones...XAUUSD – H1 Sideways, Priority is Trading at Liquidity Zones
Gold is moving sideways on the H1 timeframe, with price fluctuating around the equilibrium zone and not choosing a clear direction yet.
In this condition, I avoid chasing trades in the middle of the range — instead, I only trade at the liquidity edges, where volume is higher and order-flow signals are clearer.
🎯 BUY Scenario – “Liquidity Buy” at the Lower Range
Buy: 4.191 – 4.194
SL: 4.187
TP: 4.212 – 4.235 – 4.260 – 4.290
The 4.191–4.194 zone is a Liquidity Buy area:
It aligns with the most recent sweep low.
It sits near a thick volume cluster showing strong absorption of sell orders earlier.
If price dips into this zone, I prefer buying back toward the upper boundary of the range, taking partial profits from 4.212 up to 4.26x.
This setup follows the idea of catching the defensive buy flow that is protecting the bottom of the accumulation zone.
🔁 SELL Scenario – Sell POC at Upper Range 4.237–4.240
Sell: 4.237 – 4.240
SL: 4.245
TP: 4.220 – 4.202 – 4.180 – 4.155
The 4.237–4.240 zone is a Sell POC / supply region:
Heavy volume sitting at the top.
Confluence with the current range high.
Price has previously rejected several times from this region.
If price returns to this zone, I prefer selling down toward the mid and lower range.
SL is kept tight above 4.245 to avoid being caught by a genuine breakout.
1️⃣ Broader Context – Market Shock ≠ Market Collapse
2013 – Abenomics: BOJ’s extreme easing caused volatility, but no systemic crash.
2022–2023: Fed hiked aggressively; risk assets corrected but eventually recovered.
Lesson: Modern financial markets are highly resilient to policy shocks.
For gold, this means:
Current pullbacks are not signs of a trend collapse — they are position re-balancing phases.
Our task is to read price levels & liquidity instead of reacting emotionally to short-term news.
2️⃣ Technical View from H1
Price is ranging between ~4.19x and ~4.24x.
Volume Profile shows most volume at the centre; liquidity is thin at both edges — perfect zones for stop hunts and reversals.
A deeper Buy Zone POC lies around 4.16x.
If price breaks below 4.155 and closes beneath it, the short-term bullish structure becomes threatened.
With no clean breakout yet, I stick to a mean-reversion strategy:
Buy at the liquidity bottom
Sell at the supply top
Until the sideways structure breaks
3️⃣ Today’s Trading Plan
Only trade around the two edges:
✔ Buy Setup
Buy: 4.191–4.194
SL: 4.187
TP: 4.212 – 4.235 – 4.260 – 4.290
✔ Sell Setup
Sell: 4.237–4.240
SL: 4.245
TP: 4.220 – 4.202 – 4.180 – 4.155
No entries in the middle of the range to avoid getting “bitten from both sides.”
Keep risk at 1–2% per trade, do not widen SL.
If price breaks strongly beyond either boundary and stabilizes, I stop the range-trading strategy and wait for a new structure.
If you find this analysis useful, feel free to follow the TradingView account and share whether today you prefer BUY at the bottom or SELL at the POC zone.
Tecnicalanalysis
XAUUSD – H1 in a Downward Channel | Prefer Selling at Channel...XAUUSD – H1 in a Downward Channel | Prefer Selling at Channel Top & Buying at Trendline + Fibonacci
Market Structure (H1)
Gold is currently sliding inside a well-defined downward channel after forming a top around the 4.22x–4.23x region.
With this structure in place, I avoid taking trades in the middle of the channel.
Instead, I focus only on the two extreme zones:
Sell at the upper channel resistance
Buy at the lower trendline + Fibonacci confluence
🎯 Trading Plan for Today
1️⃣ Sell Scenario – Short Position at Resistance 4,203
Sell: 4,203
Stop Loss:
4,225 (aggressive)
4,249 (safer for swing positions)
Take Profit: 4,183 → 4,161 → 4,143
Why 4,203 Is a Strong Sell Zone
It is the upper resistance of the H1 descending channel.
Price previously faced strong selling pressure here (supply zone).
If gold pulls back to retest 4,203, I prioritise short positions following the channel structure.
The first target is the recent low near 4,183, and extended targets lie at 4,161–4,143, aligned with mid-channel demand.
2️⃣ Buy Scenario – Long Position at Channel Bottom (Trendline + Fibonacci)
Buy: 4,142
Stop Loss:
4,119 (aggressive)
4,098 (safer option)
Take Profit: 4,170 → 4,198 → 4,205
Why 4,142 Is a High-Quality Buy Zone
Confluence of the major ascending trendline,
Fibonacci support,
And a previous demand area.
If gold falls into this zone and prints strong bullish reactions (pin bars, long wicks, rising volume), I consider it a valid counter-trend buy setup, aiming for the mid-channel and the 4.20x resistance.
📌 1️⃣ Fundamental Context
The USD is attempting a short-term rebound from its lowest levels since late October, creating temporary pressure on gold.
However, this recovery is limited because the market expects the Fed to shift toward a more dovish stance:
Recent macro data shows the US economy is cooling, with slowing growth.
Labour market conditions appear softer in November.
As a result, the probability of a 25bps rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting has increased.
This keeps the medium-term outlook for gold positive, even though the current phase on H1 is still a technical correction.
Summary:
Short-term downside within the H1 channel,
But medium-term bias for gold remains supported by rate-cut expectations.
📌 2️⃣ Technical Outlook & Market Psychology
The H1 descending channel indicates a distribution/correction phase following a strong upward move.
Each touch of the channel top triggers selling — showing sellers remain active at higher prices.
The lower boundary + long-term trendline near 4.14x acts as an attractive area for medium-term buyers waiting for discounted entries.
Current sentiment:
Short-term traders: prefer selling at resistance and buying at support within the channel.
Medium-term traders: patiently wait for deeper zones near 4.14x, avoiding FOMO entries around 4.20x.
📌 3️⃣ Execution Plan
I avoid trading in the middle of the channel.
Only act at the two extremes:
Sell setup: 4,203
Buy setup: 4,142
Risk per trade is limited to 1–2% of the account.
Choose SL depending on timeframe (aggressive vs. conservative).
If price breaks the channel decisively
Above 4,249 (H1 close) or
Below 4,098,
→ I cancel all current setups and reassess the structure.
XAUUSD – LANA | Sell 4190–4194 and Buy 4100–4102 | 04/12 ...XAUUSD – LANA | Sell 4190–4194 and Buy 4100–4102 | 04/12
1. Fundamental Analysis
The current market sentiment is dominated by concerns about a global economic slowdown.
In a recession cycle, bond yields in the US and Europe tend to fall faster than in Japan, as these regions still have more room for rate cuts.
This results in:
A narrowing yield spread, causing USD/JPY carry trades to unwind.
Increased risk-off sentiment, pushing money back into JPY and safe-haven assets like gold.
If risk aversion strengthens further, USD/JPY may experience sharp declines rather than a slow drop.
Such volatility in the currency market often triggers strong swings in gold as well, providing better liquidity zones to trade — instead of chasing price at unfavourable levels.
2. Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, gold is currently being squeezed between two major trendlines:
Upper descending trendline: drawn from the 4,245–4,260 highs, indicating sellers are active whenever price touches this line.
Lower ascending trendline: extending from the previous month’s low, acting as support for the medium-term uptrend.
Key zones on the chart:
Timing zone 4190–4194:
Near the descending trendline + previous volume cluster.
This is Lana’s preferred short-term Sell zone.
Buy zone at POC – VAL (Volume Profile):
A price area where strong trading activity occurred previously — potential buying interest if price corrects deeper.
Buy Liquidity Zone 4100–4102:
Located just above the major ascending trendline.
An attractive liquidity zone for trend-continuation buys if the market flushes downward.
Summary:
Price may first retrace to 4190–4194 and weaken from there.
If price drops to 4100–4102 and holds the ascending trendline, this becomes a solid area to consider buying again.
3. Key Price Levels to Watch
Resistance / Sell zone: 4190 – 4194
Invalidation for Sell (wide SL zone): 4219 – 4231 Support / Buy zone: 4100 – 4102
SL options for Buy setup: 4081 – 4063 – 4045 (depending on individual risk appetite)
4. Trade Scenarios
⭐ Short-Term Sell Setup
Sell entry: 4190 – 4194 SL: 4219 – 4231 TP: 4181 – 4155
⭐ Deep Buy Setup (Trend-Following)
Buy entry: 4100 – 4102 SL: 4081 – 4063 – 4045
XAUUSD – LANA LOOKS FOR WAVE 5 BUY, SKIPS ALL SELL SETUPS ON ...XAUUSD – LANA LOOKS FOR WAVE 5 BUY, SKIPS ALL SELL SETUPS ON 03/12
1. Quick Summary
Main timeframe: H2 – H4
Data used: TPO, Footprint, Elliott Wave, futures/option flow
Core idea: Today Lana prioritises BUY setups only, aligned with Wave 5.
Key zone: Buy around 4190–4194, SL 4185, TP targeting the Wave 5 peak near 4315.
2. Futures & Market Profile Data
1. US Session TPO – “Thin” Structure
Yesterday’s TPO formed a Thin Profile, which commonly appears after a shakeout in an overall uptrend.
The Value Area was accepted at the lower region, but the market did not spend much time there.
Upper auction zones remain unfinished → increasing the probability that price will return to retest higher levels.
2. Footprint Chart – Strong Trap Sell with Negative Delta
On the H1 candle, the Footprint chart recorded a Trap Sell with Delta around –1113 contracts.
Sellers attempted a push down but were absorbed completely, leaving many short positions trapped at the candle’s low.
Lana interprets this as a sign that smart money is accumulating — shaking out weak buyers while absorbing fear-based sell orders.
3. Elliott Wave Outlook & Key Price Areas
The raw Elliott Wave count is still following the scenario Lana shared earlier this week:
Monday: Uptrend confirmed.
Tuesday: Wave 4 correction, offering a small sell opportunity.
Wednesday (today): Expectation of Wave 5 upward, so Lana focuses on buying.
The 4190–4194 zone aligns with the recent swing low and a strong liquidity/accumulation area.
Ideal Take-Profit Levels:
Minimum: Current Wave 5 high
If the wave extends cleanly:
Around 4315
Higher liquidity clusters at 4250–4260 and 4365–4370, based on H4/H2 chart structures
4. Trading Plan
⭐ Primary Scenario – ONLY BUY Today
Buy: 4190 – 4194
Stop Loss: 4185
Target: Current Wave 5 top
Extended target: Around 4315 (traders may divide TP depending on personal strategy)
Lana does not recommend selling against the trend today.
This is Lana’s personal market view based on TPO, Footprint, and the Elliott Wave model.
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView to receive the earliest updates.
What do you think about gold’s movement today?Hello traders!
What do you think about gold’s movement today?
Market Context
This morning, the Fed Chair delivered a speech without mentioning any economic updates. Despite that, gold still showed a corrective move, indicating that the SELL side remains dominant at the moment.
Main Strategy for Today
🔴 Prefer SELL setups
Stop selling only if price breaks above 4,246 — a key level defended by sellers.
Consider SELL entries at the previous high 4,265.
Additional SELL reaction zone to watch: 4,227 – 4,225.
BUY on deeper pullbacks
Ideal BUY zone: 4,194 – 4,190
BUY zone: 4,209 – 4,206
→ Only BUY if strong support reactions or reversal patterns appear.
🎯 Risk Management
Stop Loss (SL): 100 pips
Take Profit (TP): 100 pips
→ Maintain consistent risk throughout the session.
Do you think gold will continue to face bearish pressure and break lower,
or will it bounce from these deeper support zones and regain momentum?
XAUUSD – Healthy Correction, Favour Short-term Sells & Buy at...✨ XAUUSD – Healthy Correction, Favour Short-term Sells & Buy at POC
Gold has just tapped a new high around 4,264 — the highest level in six weeks — and is now entering a technical correction phase.
Liquidity on the sell side has been tested, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact, so my plan is to trade both directions:
Sell short-term when price retraces into supply
Buy again at the POC zone, where buying interest is likely to return
🎯 Scenario 1 – SELL at the POC Zone 4.236–4.238
Sell: 4.236 – 4.238
SL: 4.244
TP: 4.220 – 4.202 – 4.180 – 4.145
On the H1 chart, 4.236–4.238 is the POC area + the volume distribution top, aligning with the upper boundary of the small consolidation after the steep rally.
If price retests this region, I prioritise a scalping sell along the ongoing correction, targeting:
4.220 – 4.202: short-term support
4.180 – 4.145: deeper support, confluence with the major ascending trendline
This setup goes against the medium-term uptrend, so I keep position size small and use a firm SL at 4.244.
⭐ Scenario 2 – BUY at the POC Buy Zone 4.156–4.158
Buy: 4.156 – 4.158
SL: 4.150
TP: 4.175 – 4.190 – 4.225 – 4.250
The 4.156–4.158 zone is the POC Buy area, with:
Confluence of the ascending trendline
The accumulation zone before price broke out toward 4.26x
If gold pulls back deeply and forms a strong reaction (pin bar, long wick, rising buy volume), I consider this a good DCA opportunity following the medium-term uptrend, targeting 4.19x – 4.225, and higher toward 4.25x.
1. Fundamental Context
Gold and silver continue to benefit from expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts, a weakening USD, and signs of a slowing US economy.
Gold has gained +6% in November, marking the 4th consecutive positive month, and is up over 60% YTD — on track for its strongest annual performance in 46 years.
Economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues to push flows into safe-haven assets, with silver additionally supported by industrial demand — indirectly strengthening sentiment toward precious metals.
Key events on 02/12:
08:00: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
22:00: Fed Governor Bowman testifies before the House Financial Services Committee
Both events may trigger strong intraday volatility, especially if the Fed’s tone deviates from the market’s “dovish expectations”.
2. Technical & Market Sentiment Outlook
After the vertical rally to 4.26x, gold is sliding inside a descending channel on H1, reflecting short-term profit-taking pressure.
Sell POC 4.236–4.238 is where sellers are defending aggressively — every retest brings visible supply.
Buy Zone POC 4.156–4.158 is where buyers previously absorbed large sell orders before pushing price upward; this zone will likely be defended to protect the medium-term uptrend.
Current sentiment:
Short-term: Sellers have the edge due to profit-taking after a new high
Medium-term: Capital still prefers gold, so I avoid turning fully bearish unless 4.145 breaks decisively
3. Action Plan
Short-term Sell if price retests 4.236–4.238
SL: 4.244
TP: 4.220 – 4.202 – 4.180 – 4.145
Buy again at 4.156–4.158 if a strong reaction appears
SL: 4.150
TP: 4.175 – 4.190 – 4.225 – 4.250
Keep risk per scenario at 1–2% of your account
Never widen the SL when the market goes against your position
During Powell/Bowman speeches, reduce lot size or stay out to avoid getting hit by sudden spikes
XAUUSD – LANA’S CORRECTION OUTLOOK FOR 02/12✨ XAUUSD – LANA’S CORRECTION OUTLOOK FOR 02/12
1. Quick Update
Today, Lana views gold as being in a short-term corrective phase, mainly forming Wave 4 in Elliott Wave, after a strong upward move earlier.
The goal is to take advantage of this technical pullback to:
Sell short toward lower price zones
Then buy again at a strong support area in line with the main trend
2. Technical Analysis
The 4250–4260 Liquidity Zone on the weekly timeframe is a very strong liquidity region based on Market Profile.
Lana considers this an area prone to a “fake break” — price may push up to grab liquidity before pulling back.
Based on Session data, Lana prioritises the scenario where:
Price gets rejected around that upper liquidity region
Then forms a downward move toward 418x, completing the Wave 4 correction
Once Wave 4 is complete, the medium-term uptrend can still continue.
3. Key Price Zones
Liquidity / Strong Resistance:
4250 – 4260
Short-term Sell Zone:
4236 – 4241
Buy Zone (Trend-follow Buy):
4180 – 4175
4. Trading Scenarios
⭐ Scenario 1 – Sell with the correction
Sell: 4236 – 4241
SL: Above 4245
Target: 418x (can take partial profits around 4180)
⭐ Scenario 2 – Buy with the trend after correction
Buy: 4180 – 4175
SL: 4170
TP: Minimum 20 dollars (you may take profit gradually at nearby resistance levels)
Lana’s Priority Approach
Avoid buying directly at the Liquidity Zone 4250–4260
Be patient and wait for:
✔ Sell at 4236–4241
✔ Buy at 4180–4175 following the main trend
This is Lana’s personal view for the correction phase on 02/12.
Please evaluate carefully and manage your risk before entering any trade. 💛
XAUUSD – Early-week continuation buys, targeting Fibonacci ...✨ XAUUSD – Early-week continuation buys, targeting Fibonacci extension zones
Gold enters the new week under a very special market backdrop:
+6.0% in November, marking the 4th consecutive bullish month.
This follows +3.7% in October and +11.9% in September.
Year-to-date, gold is up about 60.7%, on track to record its strongest yearly gain in nearly five decades.
With a market that is literally making history, I am not trying to pick the top. I continue to prioritise trend-following buys, and only consider quick counter-trend sells at extended Fibonacci levels.
🎯 Scenario 1 – BUY THE DIP in line with the bullish trend
Buy: 4,194 – 4,195
SL: 4,185
TP: 4,210 – 4,235 – 4,270 – 4,295
The 4,194–4,195 zone on H1 is the VAL / lower boundary of the volume distribution after a strong impulsive move. It aligns with short-term structural support. If price pulls back cleanly into this area and forms a solid rejection candle, I prefer adding BUY positions with the prevailing trend.
Take-profit structure:
4,210 – 4,235: Near-term resistance zone, also around the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
4,270 – 4,295: Major extension zone 2.618 Fibo, where selling pressure and short-term reversals may become stronger.
🔁 Scenario 2 – Short-term SELL at Fibo 2.618 extension
Sell: 4,285 – 4,287
SL: 4,295
TP: 4,262 – 4,240 – 4,210
This is a counter-trend setup, suitable only for small-lot scalping trades.
If price is pushed into the 4,285–4,287 region (near the 2.618 Fibo extension) but fails to sustain momentum—leaving long wicks or clear bearish reversal signals—I will consider SELLing back toward 4.26x – 4.24x, and deeper to 4.210.
1. Technical View from the Charts
The trend on H1/H4 remains strongly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows, and price respecting the upward channel.
The latest impulse has already extended above the 1.618 Fibo, now targeting the 2.618 extension around 4.28x–4.29x.
Below, VAL around 4.19x is the first support; deeper lies sell-side liquidity near 4.16x, where many buy-side stops are clustered (only relevant for deeper intraday corrections).
Given this structure, every pullback into support is treated as a trend-continuation opportunity, not a reversal signal.
2. Market Sentiment & Action Plan
After months of strong gains, the market is showing clear FOMO behaviour. This is why I avoid buying directly at resistance and instead wait for price to return to accepted value zones (VAL/POC) for better risk-to-reward entries.
The SELL setup is only a secondary scenario, triggered when price reaches a high Fibo extension and fails—usually leading to heavy profit-taking from earlier buyers.
✅ My Trading Plan
Primary Setup
BUY 4,194–4,195
SL 4,185
TP 4,210 – 4,235 – 4,270 – 4,295
Secondary Setup
SELL 4,285–4,287 (only with a clean bearish reversal signal)
SL 4,295
TP 4,262 – 4,240 – 4,210
Risk per scenario remains capped at 1–2% of the account.
No widening of stop-losses, and I stay out if market structure breaks.
XAUUSD – LANA FOCUSES ON BUYING WITH THE SWING TREND AT THE...✨ XAUUSD – LANA FOCUSES ON BUYING WITH THE SWING TREND AT THE START OF THE WEEK
Fundamental Analysis
The Fed has just announced that it will end its QT (Quantitative Tightening) programme starting from 1st December, along with setting the federal funds target rate at 3.75–4%.
When QT stops, the balance-sheet reduction slows down, meaning liquidity is no longer being aggressively withdrawn from the market. This generally supports risk assets — and gold as well.
Mechanism recap:
QE: Expands the Fed’s balance sheet, injecting liquidity into the market.
QT: Shrinks the balance sheet, pulling liquidity out.
With QT paused, the market expects the Fed to take a softer stance on monetary policy, which strengthens the medium-term bullish outlook for gold.
Given this environment, Lana expects gold to retain upside potential early in the week, though price may show volatility near key liquidity zones.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 timeframe, price structure is following a clear bullish Elliott Wave sequence (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5). The current upward wave has not shown any major reversal signal yet.
The Swing Zone at 4190–4195 is the nearest important low and serves as the primary short-term support. This is Lana’s preferred zone for swing-trend buying.
Above price, two notable Liquidity Zones are forming:
4250–4260: Near liquidity zone where fake breaks or temporary pullbacks may appear.
4365–4370: Higher liquidity zone aligned with previous highs — likely an area for significant profit-taking if the bullish wave continues.
Lana’s main expectation: gold may pull back slightly into the 4190–4195 swing zone, then extend the bullish wave to re-test the liquidity regions above. However, since liquidity zones often create stop-hunts and fake breakouts, Lana does not recommend buying directly at these resistance levels.
Key Price Levels
Main Support (Swing Buy Zone): 4190 – 4195
Resistance / Liquidity Zones:
4250 – 4260
4365 – 4370
Trade Setup
Buy: 4190 – 4195
Stop Loss: 4185
Take Profit: 4250 – 4260 – 4365 – 4370
XAUUSD – H4 Fibonacci Supports the Bullish Trend, Prefer ...XAUUSD – H4 Fibonacci Supports the Bullish Trend, Prefer Buying at the POC for the Coming Week
Gold closed Friday near 4,215, following a strong rally after the CME system glitch.
On the H4 timeframe, the bullish structure is now clearly forming and remains relatively stable. Price has just broken out of a multi-day consolidation zone and is moving into the Fibonacci extension levels.
With the current context, I continue to prioritise medium-term buy setups on pullbacks to the POC, rather than chasing price at new highs.
🎯 Primary Trading Plan – BUY THE DIP Using Fibonacci & POC
Buy Entry: around 4,187
Stop Loss: 4,175
Target Levels: 4,225 – 4,240 – 4,290 – 4,300
These profit-taking zones are derived from the H4 Fibonacci extensions, with the 1.618–2.618 levels being areas where strong profit-taking often appears in the market.
For every position, I maintain risk at only 1–2% of the account — staying in the game matters more than trying to catch every top or bottom of a wave.
Key Level:
4,160 is the major support and the “life line” of the H4 uptrend.
If price breaks below and closes under 4,160 on H4, the current bullish structure is invalidated. In that case, I will pause the BUY scenario and rebuild a new plan — possibly considering a deeper SELL setup in the next analysis.
1. Fundamental Context
Gold’s strong recovery momentum recently slowed down after failing to stay above the 4,160 region.
However, the previous rally took place while the USD was weakening again, despite US bond yields attempting to recover across the curve.
On the higher timeframes, gold is on track for its fourth consecutive bullish month, following the major breakout in October that once again drew attention to the 4,400 region.
Prolonged geopolitical tensions combined with expectations of further Fed rate cuts give buyers enough reason to maintain mid-term positions, even if short-term volatility increases.
Overall, the fundamentals remain supportive of the uptrend — unless there is a major shift in interest-rate expectations or systemic risk.
2. H4 Technical Analysis – Fibonacci Perspective
The previous consolidation zone around 4,160–4,185 was broken to the upside with a series of strong bullish candles, confirming a higher-high, higher-low structure on H4.
The POC (Point of Control) has shifted upward to 4,187, signalling heavy trading activity before the breakout — a suitable area for waiting on a retest to buy again.
Fibonacci extensions from the latest bullish swing highlight important resistance clusters ahead:
1.618: the 4.24x zone — first profit-taking target, likely to see volatility.
2.618: the 4.35x–4.36x region — an extended target if the bullish trend continues strongly.
With this structure, any pullback to 4,187 while holding above 4,160 is, for me, a medium-term BUY opportunity, not a reversal signal.
3. Market Sentiment & Action Plan
After a strong rally, the market is experiencing FOMO buying at elevated levels.
This phase often brings sudden pullbacks to shake out late buyers.
I avoid chasing the price during this stage.
Instead, I wait for price to revisit the POC at 4,187, where volume previously accumulated, to secure a better risk-to-reward and a tighter SL.
If buyers truly dominate, they will protect the 4,160–4,187 region.
If not, stepping aside after structure breaks is safer than forcing a bias.
Plan for Next Week
Priority: Buy around 4,187
SL: 4,175
TP: 4,225 – 4,240 – 4,290 – 4,300
If price breaks strongly below 4,160 and closes under it on H4 →
Cancel all BUY plans and wait for a new structure before considering any deep correction SELL setup.
Do not chase buys near high Fibonacci extension levels unless there is a clear intraday setup with a well-defined SL.
If you find this perspective useful for your gold trading plan next week, follow the TradingView account and share which levels you are watching for entries. I always read the feedback to improve future analyses.
XAUUSD – LANA TRACKS MID-TERM WAVE 5 TOWARDS THE ATH ZONE AT ...XAUUSD – LANA TRACKS MID-TERM WAVE 5 TOWARDS THE ATH ZONE AT 4360
1. Fundamental Analysis
On the geopolitical front, President Putin has once again reiterated the conditions for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While the possibility of a peace agreement remains uncertain, his firm stance suggests the conflict is unlikely to end soon. This keeps gold supported as a mid-term safe-haven asset.
On the US side, Donald Trump continues to emphasise that the stock market will keep making new all-time highs, and even mentioned the potential removal of most income taxes, replacing them with tariff-based revenue. These comments fuel “risk-on” sentiment for equities and the USD, creating short-term fluctuations for gold.
Overall, Lana expects gold to maintain a mid-term bullish bias over the next 1–2 weeks, though short-term volatility is likely as the market constantly re-prices geopolitical risks and US policy expectations.
2. Technical Analysis
On the D1 timeframe, gold is forming a mid-term Elliott Wave 5 structure. Wave (4) has completed at a key support region, accompanied by a bullish market structure shift (MSS), signalling the start of Wave (5).
Using the Fibonacci extension tool, the theoretical target for Wave (5) lies around the 2.618 extension at 4360 — a strong psychological level and close to the potential ATH zone, where significant profit-taking from buyers may appear.
On the way up, the 4246 level is a major resistance zone:
If price breaks this level decisively and closes above it on D1, the bullish trend strengthens, confirming buyers are willing to push price to new highs.
The descending trendline has already been broken. After the breakout, price retested the line and bounced, showing buyers have regained control. A pullback towards the trendline zone at 4133–4139 would give Lana a clean opportunity to join Wave 5 with a better risk-to-reward ratio.
3. Key Price Levels to Watch
Major Resistance / Mid-term Take-Profit Zones:
4240 – 4246: Intermediate resistance; needs a clear breakout to reinforce the bullish trend.
4360: Fibonacci 2.618 extension & potential ATH target for Wave 5.
Support / Potential Buy Zones:
4133 – 4139: Near the trendline; Lana’s preferred buy zone if price pulls back.
4124: Technical stop-loss level; a break below may weaken the short-term bullish wave structure.
4. Trade Setup
BUY: 4133 – 4139
SL: 4124
TP: 4240 – 4280 – 4350
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView for the earliest gold analysis updates. 💛
XAUUSD – LANA WAITING TO BUY THE CONTINUATION WITHIN THE ...XAUUSD – LANA WAITING TO BUY THE CONTINUATION WITHIN THE UPTREND CHANNEL
1. Fundamental Analysis
Gold is maintaining its upward momentum as investors closely monitor the Russia–Ukraine tension and the mixed signals around potential peace efforts.
President Putin’s recent statements suggest peace proposals could form the basis of a future agreement, yet Russia is still prepared to continue fighting if conditions are not favourable. This creates a mixed risk environment — reducing short-term safe-haven demand but still keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated, which may pressure the USD in the medium term.
In this context, Lana prefers the scenario where gold continues to follow the broader uptrend, looking for opportunities to buy on technical pullbacks into major liquidity zones rather than FOMO entries at higher prices.
2. Technical Analysis
On the H1 timeframe, XAUUSD is moving inside a clear ascending channel, currently trading near the midline of the channel. The dominant structure remains bullish, with no sign of a break of market structure.
After a strong bullish candle, the market left a Strong Liquidity area below and created a small Gap under the channel — this is where Lana expects price to retrace and retest before resuming the upward movement.
The Buy zone aligns with a major liquidity region near 4,166–4,167, close to the lower boundary of the channel — an ideal level for continuation buys during a controlled pullback.
Using Fibonacci extensions, the key levels include:
1.618: near the current price — a region where price often pauses or consolidates
2.618: around 4,210 — Lana marks this as a potential short-term Sell scalping zone
3.618: around 4,235–4,237 — a stronger Sell zone where heavy profit-taking may appear
The 4,155 level is a key structural boundary:
If price breaks below and holds under this zone, Lana will stop prioritising long-term buy setups, as the bullish channel may be invalidated.
3. Key Levels to Watch
Support / Buy zone & strong liquidity:
4,166 – 4,167 (near the midline descending toward the lower channel boundary)
4,155 — mid-term trend boundary
Resistance / Fibo extension & Sell zones:
4,210 – 4,213: Sell scalping zone (Fibo 2.618)
4,235 – 4,237: Strong Sell zone (Fibo 3.618), near the channel top
4. Trade Setups
BUY Setup:
Buy: 4166 – 4167
SL: 4160
TP: 4182 – 4195 – 4210 – 4250
SELL Setup 1:
Sell: 4210 – 4213
SL: 4218
TP: 4200 – 4185 – 4160 – 4145
SELL Setup 2:
Sell: 4235 – 4237
SL: 4243
TP: 4212 – 4200 – 4185 – 4160
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView to read all updates early. 💛
XAUUSD – H2: The Discount Zone Is Formed, Now Waiting for ...XAUUSD – H2: The Discount Zone Is Formed, Now Waiting for Price to Retrace for Continuation Buys
On the H2 timeframe, gold has just made a strong breakout above the 4,180 zone after a period of tight consolidation. Since it is the weekend and also Thanksgiving in the US, I will only prioritise pullback buys at discounted levels — absolutely no chasing price at the highs.
🎯 PRIMARY SETUP – BUY THE DIP at Fibo & POC Zone (4.163–4.160)
Buy Entry: 4.163 – 4.160
Stop Loss: 4.155
Take Profit: 4.178 – 4.195 – 4.220
⭐ SECONDARY SETUP – DEEPER BUY at VAL + Strong Support (4.139–4.136)
Buy Entry: 4.139 – 4.136
Stop Loss: 4.130
Take Profit: 4.150 – 4.172 – 4.190 – 4.220
I always keep total risk per setup within 1–2% of the account.
Fundamental Context
Weekend + Thanksgiving → thin liquidity, more price whipsaws near the close.
Recent comments from Trump & credit data show the economic picture and the December rate path are still uncertain.
This keeps gold supported as a defensive asset, but not strong enough to expect a straight-up rally.
Therefore, I prefer trading based on technical levels and clear zones.
Technical Analysis – H2
Market Sentiment & Trading Outlook
After the breakout, buyers still hold momentum, but the sideways movement at the top suggests partial profit-taking and liquidity patience.
In thin liquidity conditions, price often makes a liquidity sweep down into support before reversing — exactly the move I aim to catch.
Plan
Prioritise Buy at 4.163–4.160.
Only consider the deeper 4.139–4.136 setup if price flushes harder.
All trades use strict Stop Losses (4.155 & 4.130) — no widening.
Take partial profits step-by-step and trail SL as price approaches TP levels.
XAUUSD – SHORT-TERM TREND STILL UNCERTAIN, WAIT FOR PRICE TO ...XAUUSD – SHORT-TERM TREND STILL UNCERTAIN, WAIT FOR PRICE TO RETURN TO LIQUIDITY ZONES
1. Fundamental Analysis
In today’s session, gold is holding a mild pullback after touching its highest level in nearly two weeks.
Market sentiment has turned slightly more risk-on, causing capital to move away from safe-haven assets. This reduces short-term demand for gold and triggers profit-taking.
However, the Fed’s dovish expectations continue to keep the USD weak, which remains a supporting factor for gold in the medium term. Lana views the current phase mainly as a technical correction and prefers waiting for price to reach key liquidity zones before taking action.
2. Technical Analysis
On the H1 timeframe, after a strong upside move, price is slowing down and showing a confirmation of downward pressure from the upper resistance zone.
The rising trendline beneath is still holding the overall structure, suggesting the broader trend remains intact, but momentum is fading and the market is entering a more indecisive phase.
Below the price, the FVG demand zones around 4113–4111 and the deeper 4085–4088 represent liquidity areas where Lana expects buyers may step back in.
Above the price, the 4194–4196 zone is a key resistance area, aligned with supply and upper liquidity, suitable for a correction sell setup if price retests it.
3. Key Price Zones to Watch
Upper liquidity / major resistance:
• 4194 – 4196
Lower liquidity / support & FVG zones:
• 4113 – 4111: first demand zone, near the rising trendline
• 4085 – 4088: deeper FVG zone, stronger support if correction extends
4. Trade Setups
SELL: 4194 – 4196
SL: 4200
TP: 4175 – 4160 – 4122 – 4105
BUY: 4113 – 4111
SL: 4105
TP: 4133 – 4155 – 4170 – 4190
BUY: 4085 – 4088
SL: 4080
TP: 4095 – 4110 – 4133 – 4150 – 4185
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView to get the earliest gold analysis updates. 💛
XAUUSD – Waiting for Trend Confirmation Around the 4,160–4,170..XAUUSD – Waiting for Trend Confirmation Around the 4,160–4,170 Zone
At the moment, gold has not shown a clearly defined medium-term trend. Price is moving around an important resistance zone, so instead of predicting direction early, I prefer waiting for price reaction at key levels before taking action.
The main focus today is the 4,160–4,170 area – where the market will decide whether to continue the uptrend or start a deeper correction.
🎯 Scenario 1 – SELL at 4,162–4,165 (Priority if No Clear Breakout)
Sell: 4.162 – 4.165
SL: 4.173
TP: 4.140 – 4.122 – 4.110 – 4.100
The 4.162–4.165 zone on H1 is a strong resistance area combining Fibonacci confluence, previous supply, and proximity to the short-term rising trendline.
If price taps this zone and shows weakness (upper-wick rejection, reversal candle, low volume confirmation), I prefer taking a short-term sell toward 4.140, with deeper targets at the liquidity cluster around 4.110–4.100.
Risk for this scenario is capped at 1–2% per trade. Do NOT hold the position if price closes above 4.173.
⭐ Scenario 2 – BUY on Break Above 4,170 (Trend Continuation Confirmation)
Buy: 4.171 – 4.173 (only after a clean breakout)
SL: 4.163
TP: 4.188 – 4.200 – 4.215
If price breaks decisively above 4.170 and sustains above it, that confirms buyers are still in control.
In this case, I switch my bias to buying the breakout, targeting the next resistance zones around 4.200–4.215, and possibly higher if momentum remains strong.
Note: Only buy if the breakout is genuine — strong candle body closing above 4.170, not a stop-hunt wick that pulls back immediately.
1. Fundamental Outlook
The DXY continues slipping below 99.50, now near 99.45, showing sustained weakness as markets increase expectations for a December Fed rate cut.
Easier monetary conditions generally support gold because the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced.
However, U.S. initial jobless claims have dropped to the lowest level since April, showing the labour market is still resilient.
This creates a mixed environment: rate-cut expectations support gold, but strong economic data may cause sudden volatility around news releases.
Overall, fundamentals lean slightly bullish for gold, but not strongly enough to ignore potential technical pullbacks.
2. Technical Structure
On the H1 chart, after a strong rally, gold is now consolidating right below the 4.160–4.170 resistance.
The 4.162–4.165 region is a confluence zone:
• horizontal resistance
• previous supply
• area where strong selling pressure appeared earlier
The 4.140 level is the “correction confirmation level” — if price breaks and closes below it, the market will likely aim for the major liquidity area around 4.110–4.100, where many Buy-side stop losses are clustered.
The current structure allows for both long and short setups, but each scenario requires clear price confirmation at the 4.160–4.170 zone.
3. Market Sentiment & Action Plan
Both buyers and sellers are watching the same price zone — 4.160–4.170.
This makes it a high-liquidity area where stops for both sides may get swept before the market shows its real direction.
If price rejects strongly from this zone, it could be a sign of late buyers being flushed out.
If buyers hold price above 4.170, trapped short positions may fuel a short squeeze toward higher resistance zones.
My plan: I do not enter mid-range. I wait for clear signals:
• Sell at 4.162–4.165 if reversal confirmation appears.
• Buy at 4.171–4.173 after a confirmed breakout and hold above the zone.
• Always use a hard stop-loss. No widening stops if price goes against the trade.
If price breaks both zones without giving clear signals, I stay out and wait for a new structure instead of forcing a prediction.
I always read feedback to improve how I share these analyses in future posts.
XAUUSD – Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Still Active...XAUUSD – Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Still Active, Continue to Prioritise Buying at POC
I maintain the view that the current dominant trend is buying based on the inverse head–and–shoulders structure, and the bullish wave is not yet complete. The plan is to wait for price to retrace into the POC zone to re-enter with the trend, avoiding chasing buys at the highs.
🎯 Main Scenario – BUY THE DIP AT POC
Buy: 4,133 – 4,130
SL: 4,123
TP: 4,155 – 4,178 – 4,200 – 4,250 – extended targets if momentum remains strong
For me, total risk per trade never exceeds 1–2% of the account. A good setup with poor risk management is still a bad trade.
1. Fundamental Context
Gold is maintaining its upward momentum, trading near its highest levels in about two weeks.
The US Dollar is weakening as markets increase bets on the Fed cutting rates soon, following data showing continued cooling in inflation.
Lower yields and a softer USD reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting the flow back into safe-haven assets.
With this backdrop, I do not prioritise large sell setups. Most pullbacks are mainly opportunities for me to accumulate long positions.
2. Technical Analysis & Market Sentiment
On the H1 timeframe, gold has formed and activated an inverse head–and–shoulders pattern, confirming a bullish reversal phase.
Price is retracing to retest the POC zone around 4,133–4,130, overlapping the previous accumulation area where heavy sell orders were absorbed. This is the zone I prioritise for buying.
Below this lies a deeper FVG acting as secondary support; however, I’m not waiting for price to drop too far to avoid missing the core move of the pattern.
Regarding price behavior, recent pullbacks have been absorbed quickly, with multiple long-wick candles showing buyers are still in control. I’m waiting for a clean pullback into POC with a strong bullish reaction to trigger the entry.
3. Action Plan
Only enter positions when price returns to the 4,133–4,130 zone — absolutely no FOMO buying at higher levels.
Take partial profits at 4,155 – 4,178 – 4,200 – 4,250, leaving the remaining position open if gold continues to extend its bullish leg.
If price breaks below 4,123 and closes under that level, I will cut the trade immediately and reassess the structure — never hold on to a bias when the market has changed.
If this analysis is helpful, follow my TradingView channel and leave your comments. I always read feedback to improve and refine my future posts.
LANA_M2 XAUUSD – WAIT FOR A PULLBACK TO BUY WITH THE UPTREND ...LANA_M2 XAUUSD – WAIT FOR A PULLBACK TO BUY WITH THE UPTREND
1. Fundamental Analysis
Gold continues its bullish momentum and has just formed a two-week high as expectations for an early FOMC rate cut strengthen.
Weaker U.S. economic data, cooling bond yields, and pressure on the USD are supporting gold, both from real-yield dynamics and safe-haven demand.
With this outlook, Lana prefers waiting for a mild correction before buying with the trend, instead of chasing buys at higher prices.
2. Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, the market structure has shifted to bullish with consecutive BOS, confirming buyer control.
FVG demand zones around 4100 and 4080 are acting as support, aligning with key swing lows after BOS.
The upper zone around 4180–4200 is an FVG supply area and a premium/ resistance zone where price may react with a short-term pullback.
With Fibonacci confluence, 4103–4105 and 4086–4088 match the 50–61.8% retracement of the latest bullish leg — ideal for waiting for a pullback to buy.
3. Key Price Zones
Support / Discount (Demand & FVG):
4103 – 4105
4086 – 4088
Resistance / Premium (Supply & FVG):
4165 – 4194 – 4202
4. Trade Setups
⭐ Primary Scenario – Buy with the Trend
Buy entry: 4103 – 4105
SL: 3998
TP: 4115 – 4130 – 4165 – 4190
⭐ Alternative Scenario – Deep Buy at Lower FVG
Buy entry: 4086 – 4088
SL: 4080
TP: 4100 – 4125 – 4146 – 4170 – 4190
⭐ Short-term Reversal – Sell at Premium Zone
Sell entry: 4194
SL: 4202
TP: 4177 – 4150 – 4132 – 4110
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView to get the earliest gold analysis updates. 💛
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold forming Head–Shoulders Pattern...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold forming Head–Shoulders Pattern, waiting for pullback to POC for entry
Gold is completing the final bullish leg of the Head–Shoulders structure on the H1 timeframe.
Price has now reached the Fibonacci zone (both retracement + extension), which also aligns with a resistance cluster and the POC of the Volume Profile — so the current choppy reaction is completely normal.
My plan is to use this pullback:
→ prioritize short-term Buy entries following the current bullish leg,
→ then look for Sell setups at the strong resistance above.
Macro Background
Russia continues missile strikes on Kyiv right after the US–Ukraine reached a “19-point framework”, causing peace prospects to stall again.
However, secret negotiations among the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi are still ongoing, though no major terms have been finalized.
With “war not stopping – negotiations not settled”, global risk sentiment remains tense.
This keeps medium–long-term demand for Gold strong.
But in the short term, price may still show wide swings around key technical zones before choosing a clearer direction.
H1 Technical Analysis – Head & Shoulders, Fibonacci, Volume Profile
The Head–Shoulders pattern is now clearly visible.
Price is currently in the right-shoulder completion phase, approaching upper resistance.
Gold at the moment is:
Hitting the Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline.
Also overlapping with the Fibonacci extension of the short-term bullish wave → high chance of reaction and volatility.
Below price, the 4090–4093 zone is a support/mini-POC area where Volume Profile thickens — ideal for a short-term Buy following the current bullish structure.
Above price, the 4185–4187 zone is a strong resistance cluster:
Confluence of potential right-shoulder top + old supply + Fibonacci extension.
This is the area I will prioritize for Sell setups once the pattern completes.
Notable Support/FVG zones:
4122–4116 (near support)
4169–4210 (mid-term FVG/resistance)
Reference Trading Scenarios
1. Buy with the current bullish wave (short-term)
Buy: 4091–4093
SL: 4085
TP: 4120 → 4145 → 4170 → 4190 → 4220
Logic:
Buy at the confluence support + small POC, taking advantage of the upward push completing the right shoulder.
Once the trade reaches +1R, shift SL to breakeven to protect capital.
2. Sell at the Head–Shoulders resistance zone (medium-term priority)
Sell: 4185–4187
SL: 4193
TP: 4170 → 4155 → 4130 → 4110
Logic:
This is a strong resistance zone overlapping the supply region and Fibonacci extension.
Only activate the Sell if H1/M15 shows clear rejection signals (pin bar, bearish engulfing, weak volume) around 4185–4187.
Additional Levels to Watch
Support – FVG: 4122–4116
Resistance – FVG: 4169–4210
Can be used for quick scalp opportunities, but the main scenarios remain:
Buy near 409x as long as major resistance hasn’t been touched.
Sell near 418x when the Head–Shoulders structure shows completion signs.
XAUUSD – TUESDAY BREAKOUT BUY SETUP, WATCH REACTIONS AT FIBO...💛 XAUUSD – TUESDAY BREAKOUT BUY SETUP, WATCH REACTIONS AT FIBO 1.618–2.618 🎯
🌤 Overview
Hello everyone, Lana here 💬
After spending several days compressed inside a triangle pattern, Gold has finally broken the descending trendline on H1, absorbed liquidity around the FVG zone, and continued to hold above the breakout area.
This shows that short-term bullish momentum is currently favored, with price targeting the higher Fibonacci extensions.
Today the market is waiting for major data releases: CPI, PPI, retail sales… These numbers can create strong volatility, especially when gold is in an “overcrowded trade” condition.
If US consumer data comes in strong, a deeper pullback may appear after a liquidity sweep.
💹 Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective)
On H1, price has:
Broken the descending trendline of the accumulation triangle.
Retested the FVG + liquidity repurchase zone around 4.101–4.105 and bounced back upward.
The 4.133–4.135 area, previously resistance, has now turned into support — a suitable zone for a buy-on-dip strategy.
Technical Targets:
Fibonacci Extension 1.618 of the current bullish leg is around 4.16xx.
Fibonacci Extension 2.618 + major liquidity pool sits around 4.23xx–4.24xx, aligning with previous highs — a zone where sellers may show strong reaction.
Overall, as long as price stays above 4.10–4.11, the short-term bullish structure remains valid.
🎯 Reference Trading Plan
💖 BUY Scenario – Priority with Trend
Buy on breakout – current price zone
Entry: 4.130–4.133
SL: 4.125
TP: 4.150 → 4.175 → 4.198 → 4.230
Buy on deeper retest
Entry: 4.100–4.103
SL: 4.095 (you may choose a tighter SL instead of 3.995 for better R:R)
TP: 4.125 → 4.150 → 4.175 → 4.198
💢 SELL Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction at Resistance
Sell: 4.167–4.169
SL: 4.175
TP: 4.150 → 4.133 → 4.110 → 3.990
This Sell setup is only for short-term scalping against the trend — priority is to close quickly at nearby TP levels.
⚠️ Important Notes
Today includes CPI, PPI, retail sales and other US data — spreads may widen and price can spike both ways.
Gold is currently a crowded trade, so after strong rallies, deeper washout moves can occur to shake out weak positions.
Best strategy:
Prioritize Buy setups at confirmed support zones.
Reduce position size before major news; avoid holding heavy trades through data releases.
Treat Sell setups only as fast in–fast out scalps.
🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction – With LanaM2
In summary, the breakout from the H1 triangle supports the scenario of Gold continuing upwards toward the Fibo 1.618–2.618 extension levels, as long as price stays above 4.10–4.11 💛
Today, focus on finding clean Buy entries instead of chasing price, and be cautious during CPI & PPI releases.
If you found this useful, please 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to get daily Gold insights on TradingView ✨
HOW FAR WILL GOLD RISE?
1. MARKET CONTEXT
Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions, gold prices mainly moved sideways – accumulating within a narrow range.
In the U.S. session, gold prices broke strongly through the 413X region and formed:
Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (iH&S)
The upward structure returns → buyers dominate
This indicates that the upward momentum has returned, and the market leans towards continuing to rise if it does not break the important support area.
Fundamental factors supporting buyers
The market is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates in December.
Tonight there is PPI news — an important indicator directly affecting inflation expectations and Fed expectations.
→ This could be a catalyst for strong volatility in the U.S. session.
2. MAIN TRADING DIRECTION FOR THE DAY
➡️ Prioritize BUY (look to buy) according to the main trend.
➡️ SELL is only reactive – for retracement, not the main trend.
3. POTENTIAL BUY ZONES
Beautiful support areas to look for buying opportunities today:
📍 BUY zone 1 – Nearest
413X (early day resistance and yesterday's breakout area)
→ Beautiful entry area for scalping or buy follow trend.
📍 BUY zone 2
4100 – 4103
→ Psychological support & structural confluence area.
📍 BUY zone 3
4088 – 4090
📍 BUY zone 4
4060 – 4065
→ Strong support area, look to catch the bottom in case of deep price correction.
4. REACTIVE SELL ZONES (ONLY SELL FOR RETRACEMENT)
Only sell when price hits the area — clear rejection signals appear:
📍 SELL zone 1 (nearest)
4180 – 4186
📍 SELL zone 2
4190 – 4195
📍 SELL zone 3
4202 – 4205
Safe SELL conditions:
Only sell counter-trend, prioritize scalping.
If these areas are strongly broken + H1/H4 candle closes, consider buyers winning, then do not sell anymore.
5. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT – RISK MANAGEMENT
SL = 10 points
TP = 10 points
RR ratio = 1:1.2
Do not hold positions through PPI news if not really sure about the pattern.
6. NOTES ON METHOD
Buy orders will dominate the day.
Sell only when there is a strong reaction at resistance.
Scalping: open orders on smaller timeframes (M1–M5–M15) to optimize Entry.
Always wait for price action confirmation (pinbar, engulfing, retest…) before entering orders.
7. SUMMARY
Today's tendency is mainly BUY, based on:
The return of the upward trend
Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern
Expectations of a dovish Fed
PPI news triggering volatility
Wishing everyone an effective trading day — total victory! 🔥💹
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Monday SetupLiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Monday Setup
Wait for gold to retest the upper trendline before choosing a direction
Quick Overview
On the H1 timeframe, gold is still moving inside a triangle pattern with a descending upper trendline and a gradually rising lower trendline. In my view, price still needs a bullish swing to retest the upper trendline – which aligns with the FVG zone + Volume Profile POC – before deciding a new trend (either a breakout to the upside or a reversal downward).
Regarding the USD, many Fed officials have begun signaling that rate cuts may happen, but they remain very cautious. UBS and Barclays both lean towards the scenario that the Fed could cut rates in December if upcoming data continues to weaken. This limits the USD’s ability to strengthen too much, giving gold room for a technical pullback into resistance zones.
H1 Technical Analysis
Current structure: price is consolidating sideways, with lower highs along the descending trendline and higher lows supported by the lower trendline.
Zone 4079–4081:
FVG + Volume Profile POC.
This area aligns with the upper trendline → a strong confluence resistance zone, suitable for a reaction-based short setup.
Nearest support zone: around 4040–4035; if this level breaks, price may likely head back to retest 4010–4000.
A clear bullish reversal signal only forms if an uptrend structure returns, at least when price breaks and holds above 4061, then continues through the descending trendline.
Trading Scenarios (Reference Only)
Sell at FVG + POC + Trendline (Priority setup)
Entry: 4079–4081
SL: 4086
TP: 4060 → 4045 → 4010
Logic: Price is expected to move up to fill the FVG and touch the POC/trendline before sellers step back in. This zone has strong confluence, offering a better win rate than shorting inside the sideway range.
Buy when bullish structure is confirmed
Conditions: Price must break above 4061, close an H1 candle holding above this level, and break out of the descending trendline.
Entry (reference): 4061–4068 (retest of breakout zone)
SL: 4050
TP: 4095 → 4130 → 4150
In this case, the triangle pattern breaks upward, Dow Theory bullish structure returns, and the priority is buying with the new trend rather than trying to short the top.
Trading Notes
Possible scalp levels: 4060, 4040, 4010, 4130 – always wait for clear candle reactions on M5–M15 before entering.
Risk per trade: 0.5–1% of account size; once the trade reaches around 1R, move SL to breakeven to protect your capital.
If you have a different scenario for XAUUSD H1 today, leave a comment and follow LiamTrading for daily gold strategies on TradingView.
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold breaks bullish structure...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold breaks bullish structure, short-term downside takes control
Gold has dropped sharply by more than $20 in a short time, losing over 1% on the day and moving close to the lower 4,030 area. The previous bullish structure has officially been broken, 4040 failed to hold, and today’s focus continues to be selling with the trend until the 4000–398x support zone shows clear reactions.
Macro Analysis
Gold prices declined as expectations for a December rate cut weakened: JPMorgan no longer forecasts a Fed rate cut in December, opposite to their earlier 25 bps cut scenario.
Some institutions still believe rising unemployment and weaker economic data may force the Fed to cut 25 bps at the upcoming meeting.
The market is currently pricing the probability of a December rate cut at nearly “50–50,” creating strong uncertainty and putting short-term pressure on gold, even though the metal still benefits in the long term if the rate-cut cycle begins.
Technical Analysis H1 – Bearish structure, price channel, and support zones
After breaking below 4040, price formed a series of Lower Highs – Lower Lows, confirming a Dow-theory bearish structure on H1.
A falling channel is forming; the channel’s upper boundary aligns with the short-term resistance zone at 4050–4060.
4000 zone: a key psychological support. If broken decisively, the medium-term structure may shift into a deeper corrective phase.
Buy Zone 3987–3989
Strong support confluence + Fibonacci extensions (1.618/2.272) of the current bearish swing
Optimal area for catching a corrective bounce if clear reversal signals appear
Key Resistance Levels Today
4052–4054: retest of former support + upper boundary of falling channel → ideal area for a pullback-sell setup.
Trading Scenarios Today (LiamTrading)
Scenario 1 – SELL with the prevailing downtrend (priority)
Entry: 4052–4054
SL: 4060
TP: 4030 → 4015 → 3990
Logic: Price retraces to resistance + channel top, suitable for trend-continuation selling. Prefer setups where M15 shows rejection candles (pin bar/bearish engulfing) around 405x.
Scenario 2 – BUY at strong support 398x (counter-trend bounce)
Entry: 3987–3989
SL: 3980
TP: 3999 → 4014 → 4040 → 4080
Logic: 398x is a high-confluence support zone; trigger only when clear price reaction appears (long lower wicks or reversal patterns on M15–H1).
This is counter-trend, so use smaller position sizes and take partial profits.
Risk Notes & Invalidation
H1 closes above 4060: short-term bearish structure weakens → pause all sell setups and reassess.
H1 closes below 3980: buy zone fails → downside could extend further; only sell setups preferred.
Always keep risk per trade at 0.5–1%, and once reaching +1R, move SL to break-even.
Are you leaning towards continuing to sell with the trend, or waiting to buy the dip at 398x?
Follow LiamTrading on TradingView for daily XAUUSD updates
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold breaks bullish structure...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold breaks bullish structure, short-term downside takes control
Gold has dropped sharply by more than $20 in a short time, losing over 1% on the day and moving close to the lower 4,030 area. The previous bullish structure has officially been broken, 4040 failed to hold, and today’s focus continues to be selling with the trend until the 4000–398x support zone shows clear reactions.
Macro Analysis
Gold prices declined as expectations for a December rate cut weakened: JPMorgan no longer forecasts a Fed rate cut in December, opposite to their earlier 25 bps cut scenario.
Some institutions still believe rising unemployment and weaker economic data may force the Fed to cut 25 bps at the upcoming meeting.
The market is currently pricing the probability of a December rate cut at nearly “50–50,” creating strong uncertainty and putting short-term pressure on gold, even though the metal still benefits in the long term if the rate-cut cycle begins.
Technical Analysis H1 – Bearish structure, price channel, and support zones
After breaking below 4040, price formed a series of Lower Highs – Lower Lows, confirming a Dow-theory bearish structure on H1.
A falling channel is forming; the channel’s upper boundary aligns with the short-term resistance zone at 4050–4060.
4000 zone: a key psychological support. If broken decisively, the medium-term structure may shift into a deeper corrective phase.
Buy Zone 3987–3989
Strong support confluence + Fibonacci extensions (1.618/2.272) of the current bearish swing
Optimal area for catching a corrective bounce if clear reversal signals appear
Key Resistance Levels Today
4052–4054: retest of former support + upper boundary of falling channel → ideal area for a pullback-sell setup.
Trading Scenarios Today (LiamTrading)
Scenario 1 – SELL with the prevailing downtrend (priority)
Entry: 4052–4054
SL: 4060
TP: 4030 → 4015 → 3990
Logic: Price retraces to resistance + channel top, suitable for trend-continuation selling. Prefer setups where M15 shows rejection candles (pin bar/bearish engulfing) around 405x.
Scenario 2 – BUY at strong support 398x (counter-trend bounce)
Entry: 3987–3989
SL: 3980
TP: 3999 → 4014 → 4040 → 4080
Logic: 398x is a high-confluence support zone; trigger only when clear price reaction appears (long lower wicks or reversal patterns on M15–H1).
This is counter-trend, so use smaller position sizes and take partial profits.
Risk Notes & Invalidation
H1 closes above 4060: short-term bearish structure weakens → pause all sell setups and reassess.
H1 closes below 3980: buy zone fails → downside could extend further; only sell setups preferred.
Always keep risk per trade at 0.5–1%, and once reaching +1R, move SL to break-even.
Are you leaning towards continuing to sell with the trend, or waiting to buy the dip at 398x?
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