XAUUSD – CLEAR INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS FORMATION, CONTINUE ...💛 XAUUSD – CLEAR INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS FORMATION, CONTINUE TO PRIORITISE BUY SETUPS 🎯
🌤 1. Overview – Today’s Market Picture
Hello everyone, Lana here again 💬
During the Asian session this morning, gold completed the right shoulder of a very clear Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the H3/H4 timeframe. Those who bought following the previous setup are now in a favourable position, and in my view, this is still a good time to hold Buy positions and prepare for additional entries once the market confirms the trend.
On the macro side, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25bp in December has dropped to around 30–33%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged remains dominant.
This means the USD is not weak enough to push gold sharply higher, but also not strong enough to suppress it—creating a volatile range-bound environment, which is ideal for technical-pattern trading.
💹 2. Technical Analysis – Inverse Head & Shoulders & Market Structure
The Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern has formed quite cleanly:
Left shoulder → Head → Right shoulder, all supported by the long-term ascending trendline.
The demand zone around 4040–4050 is acting as a liquidity box supporting the entire structure.
The neckline is currently around 4089–4090:
Once price breaks above and closes above 4089, we can consider a confirmed bullish trend.
After the breakout, gold may extend toward 4145 → 4200, which aligns with higher liquidity zones + upper FVGs.
Zone 4130–4132:
A major liquidity cluster—where many take-profit orders & short-term sell orders may appear.
If this zone is broken decisively, price may accelerate quickly toward 4200.
Zone 4040:
This is both the bottom of the pattern and a key support.
The bullish structure fails if gold closes below 4040 on H4, which would invalidate the Inverse H&S pattern.
Overall, price is currently compressing right below the neckline, and just one strong breakout could trigger the next bullish wave.
🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan (For Study Purposes Only)
💖 Primary BUY Scenario – Following the Pattern
1️⃣ Buy on retracement to support
Entry: 4060–4063
SL: 4055
TP: 4088 → 4108 → 4130 → 4143 → 4200
2️⃣ Buy the neckline breakout
Condition: Price breaks the descending trendline & neckline, and closes above 4089.
Entry: around 4089–4092
SL: 4080
TP: 4132 → 4145 → 4200
💢 Notes on SELL Setups
Selling now is counter-trend against the pattern and not the priority.
Consider only short-term sells if:
Price reacts strongly at 4132–4145, and
Clear bearish signals appear on M15–M30 (pin bar, bearish engulfing, rising sell volume).
⚠️ 4. Fundamental Factors to Watch
High probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged → market may stay flat before data releases, then spike in volatility.
Gold remains sensitive to data: employment, inflation, and speeches from Fed officials.
🌷 In summary
The Inverse Head & Shoulders on XAUUSD supports the bullish scenario as long as price stays above 4040 💛
Strategy:
Prioritise Buy setups: first at 4060–4063, then on the breakout above 4089.
Watch the 4132–4145 zone closely—if broken, the move toward 4200 becomes highly probable.
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