LiamTrading – Gold compressed at the triangle peak; watch for...LiamTrading – Gold compressed at the triangle peak; watch for a break at 4020 (H2)
After a week of accumulation, the price is pressing against the triangle peak between the descending trendline (from late October) and the ascending trendline (from 5/11). The advantage will clearly lean towards an increase if 4020 is broken and held.
Technical Analysis (prioritise H2, Volume Profile – Trendline – S/R – Fibonacci)
Trendline & Structure
The descending trendline is blocking recovery waves; the ascending trendline supports adjustment waves.
Closing the H2 candle above the confluence area ~4020 will confirm a clear upward movement.
Support / Resistance (S/R)
Main support: 3970–3972 (swing low & “Key level Support”).
Decision zone: 4014–4020 (break–retest zone).
Resistance: 4045 (medium-term), 4050 (supply for scalp orders), upper band 4105–4110.
Volume Profile (recent session / composite)
POC magnet: 4015–4017 → likely profit-taking/fluctuations; staying above POC turns this area into a launchpad.
LVN: around 4020 → beautiful break-and-go; failing to hold often pulls back to 4015/4010.
Fibonacci Extension (H2 swing)
1.618 coincides with 4045–4050 → first upward target.
2.272/2.618 creates a liquidity zone 4095–4110 → area may weaken/strong profit-taking.
Today's Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Buy on breakout direction
Entry: 4020–4022 after closing above trendline + retest holding 4018–4020
SL: 4014
TP: 4045 → 4070 → 4100–4110
Management: Partially close at 4045; move SL to breakeven when reaching +1R. Staying above 4020 means POC 4015–4017 should switch roles to support.
Scenario 1b – Buy on adjustment wave (before breakout, cautious volume)
Entry: 3998–4002 (“400x”) when there is an upward reaction at the ascending trendline
SL: 3988
TP: 4017 → 4045
Note: H2 closes below 3988 → cancel the order.
Scenario 2 – Sell scalp at resistance
Entry: 4048–4052 (confluence Fibo 1.618 + supply zone)
SL: 4056
TP: 4040 → 4030 → 4020
Note: This is counter-trend. Ignore if H2 closes strongly above 4052.
Summary
The upward bias is confirmed when breaking–holding 4020, opening targets 4045 → 4070 → 4100+. Before that signal, trade within the range respecting POC 4015–4017 and ceiling 4045/4050. Risk per order 0.5–1%, move SL to BE when reaching +1R.
