XAUUSD – Brian | H1 Volume ProfileXAUUSD – Brian | H1 Volume Profile: risk of deep decline as market awaits PCE data
Market snapshot
On H1, gold is declining in a rather "clean" structure, continuously creating lower highs and lower lows.
The 4.175 area is currently the nearest support – if breached, the decline could extend another 50–60 points to lower areas.
Price remains below 4.250 USD, as the market awaits PCE data (Fed's preferred inflation measure) to find a clearer direction.
Technical map – Volume Profile & price areas
Important areas today: 4.210 – 4.200 – 4.175 – 4.164 – 4.133
4.210–4.200: upper area, coinciding with the nearest POC/VAH cluster – selling pressure likely when price retraces here.
4.175: short-term support + area with sell-side liquidity; if this area is lost, price could be pulled to a deeper demand cluster.
4.164–4.133: potential Buy zone in a deep decline scenario – Volume Profile shows significant buying occurred around this area previously.
In short: on H1, the trend is down, prioritize selling according to volume; consider buying only when price falls to a lower discount area.
Trading scenario reference
(Not personalized advice – adjust volume & SL according to your account)
Scenario 1 – Sell following the downtrend structure (priority)
Sell area: 4.210–4.200 (POC/VAH + technical retracement area)
Idea: Wait for price to retrace to this area, observe H1/M15 for rejection candles (long upper tail, pin bar, engulfing…) before activating a Sell order.
Suggested take profit areas: TP1: 4.175
TP2: 4.164
TP3: 4.133 (in case of a strong 50–60 point decline)
Scenario 2 – Buy at deep discount area
Buy area: 4.164–4.133
Idea: Only consider buying when price has "dumped" deeply enough into the buy zone, with clear reversal candles on H1.
At that point, this is a technical retracement play, not trying to catch the bottom of a major trend.
Suggested take profit areas:
TP1: return to 4.175
TP2: 4.200
Macroeconomic context – Why is gold still hesitant?
Gold recorded a slight increase on Friday, but remains within the narrow trading range of the week.
Expectations of a dovish Fed continue to pressure the USD, generally supporting gold in the medium term.
However, buyers are waiting for US PCE data before taking larger positions:
If PCE cools significantly → reinforces the story of an early Fed rate cut → gold could easily rebound.
If PCE remains stubborn → market fears a "hawkish rate cut" scenario from the Fed → yields may rise, adding selling pressure on gold.
Risk management
For the Sell scenario, avoid chasing price in the middle of the area – prioritize waiting for a retracement to POC/VAH before entering, with a tight SL above the 4.210–4.215 area.
If participating in the Buy play at 4.164–4.133, consider splitting TP and moving SL to breakeven as soon as TP1 is reached to avoid constant chart monitoring.
