Gold ATH after FOMC: Reaction or New Wave?Before the FOMC meeting, the market shared the same question:
would gold rally ahead of the meeting and then face a sharp sell-off afterward, or continue breaking higher and extend the trend?
After the FOMC, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged — which was not a surprise.
What really mattered was the Fed’s tone, and Powell clearly chose a balanced stance:
neither too dovish nor too hawkish.
More importantly, the Fed has effectively ruled out further rate hikes, while still maintaining a high interest-rate environment.
As a result, gold did not experience a heavy sell-off after the FOMC, and continues to hold its structure near the highs.
At this stage, market focus is shifting toward external risk factors:
The risk of a U.S. government shutdown
U.S.–Iran tensions
Ongoing trade war risks with major partners
Questions surrounding the independence of the Fed
👉 The current macro backdrop is not bearish for gold.
👉 SELL setups are reactionary, not the core narrative of the trend.
⏱️ H1 Observation Range
Lower bound: 5,415
Upper bound: 5,600
Price is consolidating near the highs with a wide range and may gradually push toward higher round-number levels.
🟢 Support / BUY zones
5,505 – 5,410 – 5,310 – 5,250 – 5,100
🔴 Resistance / Key observation zones
5,660–5,665 – 5,700 – 5,800 – 6,000
🧠 Primary scenario
Wide volatility → risk management is key.
SELLs are only short-term reactions at resistance.
BUY pullbacks to support to ride the broader move, not to pick the top.
⚠️ Key notes for the current phase
Reading the chart is a skill.
Reading the Fed is a strategy.
Reading Trump’s statements is survival.
Markets don’t reward being right —
they reward discipline and alignment with the trend.
👉 SELL to react — BUY to stay in the game.
📌 Follow me to track macro scenarios, key price levels, and the ongoing journey of finding opportunities in the market.
Trendlineanalysis
Part 2 Technical Analysis Vs Institution Option TradingDirectional Strategies- Long Call: Bet on price going up.
- Long Put: Bet on price going down.
- Covered Call: Sell call on stock you own, generate income.
Volatility Strategies- Straddle: Buy call and put at same strike, profit from big moves.
- Strangle: Buy call and put at different strikes, profit from big moves.
Income Strategies- Credit Spreads: Sell options to collect premium.
- Iron Condor: Sell call and put spreads, profit from low volatility.
Hedging Strategies- Protective Put: Buy put on stock you own, limit downside.
- Collar: Buy put, sell call on stock you own, limit risk.
MARUTI 1 Month View 📌 Current Market Snapshot (Daily)
Current approximate price:
📍 ~₹14,480–₹14,900 range (varying slightly between NSE/BSE live feeds).
Daily trading range:
• Low: ~₹14,350
• High: ~₹14,870**
52-Week Range:
• Low: ~₹11,059
• High: ~₹17,370 +
📈 1-Month Key Levels (Support & Resistance)
🔁 Resistance Levels (Upside)
R1: ~₹15,300–₹15,400 — immediate supply / pivot resistance on the 1-month timeframe.
R2: ~₹15,730–₹15,800 — next resistance zone (near shorter moving averages).
R3: ~₹16,150–₹16,170 — higher resistance and lower trading range top.
Near term major resistance: Above ~₹16,650–₹16,830 could signal a breakout continuation to higher 1-month highs.
🔽 Support Levels (Downside)
S1: ~₹14,440–₹14,480 — immediate downside support cluster.
S2: ~₹14,000 — psychological and lower short-term support.
S3: ~₹13,570–₹13,600 — deeper support if weak momentum continues.
🔄 Pivot Reference
Pivot (central reference): ~₹14,867–₹14,900 area — if price closes above this regularly, short-term bias could tilt up; below it suggests bearish control in the 1-month context.
📊 1-Month Price Behavior & Interpretation
✔ The stock has pulled back significantly from recent peak levels near ₹16.8k–₹17.3k seen earlier in January/December.
✔ Currently trading below most short-term moving averages (20 DMA / 50 DMA) — indicating short-term bearish pressure.
✔ Near-term price action will focus on whether ₹14.4k support holds; breach below that could expose deeper pullbacks toward ₹14.0k–₹13.6k.
Why Chart Patterns Matter ?Chart patterns reflect real-time battle between buyers and sellers. Every high, low, candle close, and wick communicates intentions of institutions, retail traders, and algos.
For traders, chart patterns help in:
Identifying trend direction
Spotting reversal before confirmation
Planning entries, stop-loss, and take-profit zones
Understanding supply–demand imbalance
Filtering noise in volatile markets
Because patterns repeat across timeframes and markets (stocks, options, forex, crypto), they become reliable tools — especially when aligned with volume spikes and market structure breaks.
Part 1 Intraday Institutional Trading How Institutions Trade Options
Institutions use:
Delta hedging
Gamma scalping
Volatility Arbitrage
Neutral strategies
They focus more on:
Probability
Volatility cycles
Liquidity zones
Mean reversion
Understanding institutional behavior helps traders make better decisions, especially when reading volume profiles and OI shifts.
Gold at ATH before FOMC shakeout first or straight breakout?🧭 Macro Snapshot
Donald Trump maintains a hardline stance, increasing military presence in the Middle East → geopolitical risk remains elevated.
Tonight’s key focus: Federal Reserve
Political pressure and questions around Fed independence.
DXY continues to weaken, retesting major historical support (2020–2022) → supportive for gold.
👉 Conclusion: Geopolitics + a weaker USD set the bullish bias, while the Fed determines short-term volatility.
📊 Intraday Range to Watch
Upper range: 5,280 – 5,305
Lower range: 5,190 – 5,160
→ High probability of range trading and liquidity absorption ahead of the Fed decision.
🟢 Support
5,220–5,225 | 5,150–5,165 | 5,080–5,085 | 5,050–5,060
🔴 Resistance
5,280–5,294 | 5,300 | 5,315 | 5,380–5,385
⚠️ Strategy Notes
Expect possible fake moves / stop hunts within the range.
Avoid chasing highs or catching tops without confirmation.
Focus on price reaction at key levels and stay disciplined.
Summary: Gold is fundamentally supported, but today the key is how price reacts within 5,160–5,305.
Be patient — wait for confirmation — trade the reaction.
AXISBANK 1 Month View📈 Current Context
As of late January 2026, Axis Bank’s stock is trading around ₹1,300 – ₹1,340 range amid strong recent earnings and price momentum.
📊 1-Month Key Levels (Daily/Short-Term Range)
🔼 Resistance (Upside)
1. ₹1,340 – ₹1,350 – Near recent high/resistance zone (short-term cap)
2. ₹1,355 – ₹1,365 – Next resistance cluster above recent highs
3. ₹1,370 + – Broader higher breakout zone if strong bullish continuation occurs
Note: Weekly/short weekly resistance zones are around ₹1,317-₹1,320 and then ₹1,340-₹1,350.
🔽 Support (Downside)
1. ₹1,280 – ₹1,285 – Immediate support near recent pivot lows
2. ₹1,270 – ₹1,275 – Secondary support zone tracked by moving averages
3. ₹1,260 – ₹1,265 – Broader channel support if price weakens further
🧭 Interpretation for a 1-Month View
Bullish scenario: A sustained break and close above ₹1,350 could extend momentum toward ₹1,365+ in the coming weeks.
Bearish scenario: A break below ₹1,270 might open the path toward ₹1,250 – ₹1,260 support cluster.
Neutral/Range: In sideways conditions, expect most trading between roughly ₹1,270 – ₹1,350.
HINDALCO 1 Month View 📌 Current Price Snapshot
Approximate recent price: ₹961–₹975 on NSE.
52-week range: ₹546.45 (low) to ~₹985 (high).
📊 1-Month Technical Levels (Support & Resistance)
🔁 Pivot & Balanced Level
Pivot Level: ~₹954 – ₹963 (central zone where trend bias often flips)
📈 Resistance Levels (Upside Barriers)
1. R1: ~₹959 – ₹960 — first key resistance above current pivot.
2. R2: ~₹969 – ₹970 — near recent short-term highs.
3. R3: ~₹975 – ₹980+ — upper resistance and psychological round number area.
💡 Above ~₹980: breakout build-up zone toward recent swing highs (~₹985).
📉 Support Levels (Downside Floors)
1. S1: ~₹944 – ₹945 — first major support zone.
2. S2: ~₹938 – ₹940 — next lower support within recent range.
3. S3: ~₹929 – ₹932 — deeper support if price slides further.
4. Lower structural zone: ~₹907 – ₹921 — broader support band from longer-term pivots.
📅 Trend & Market Context (1-Month)
Momentum: RSI around mid-60s suggesting moderately bullish momentum without being overbought.
Moving averages: Price trading above major short & mid-term averages (20/50 DMA), indicating bullish bias on the monthly view.
Volatility: ATR indicates normal volatility — not extreme swings.
Interpretation:
✔ Stays bullish above ~₹944–₹945 support.
✔ Upside can extend to ~₹969–₹980 if momentum persists.
⚠ A break below ~₹932 could signal deeper pullbacks toward ~₹907 area.
Chart Patterns in Technical AnalysisChart patterns are formations created by price movements on a chart, helping traders predict future price movements. Here are some common ones:
Reversal Patterns- Head and Shoulders: Indicates a reversal from bullish to bearish.
- Inverse Head and Shoulders: Indicates a reversal from bearish to bullish.
- Double Top: Bearish reversal pattern.
- Double Bottom: Bullish reversal pattern.
Continuation Patterns- Triangle: Can be bullish or bearish, indicates continuation.
- Pennant: Indicates continuation of trend.
- Flag: Indicates continuation of trend.
Other Patterns- Cup and Handle: Bullish pattern indicating continuation.
- Wedge: Can indicate reversal or continuation.
Part 1 Intrday Institutional Trading Role of Institutions & Smart Money in Options
Institutions dominate the option markets.
They control the market using:
Delta hedging
Gamma scalping
Liquidity creation
Option selling walls
Volume absorption
Understanding their footprints helps predict:
Support zones
Resistance zones
Directional bias
Volatility behavior
Part 3 Technical Analysis VS. Institutional Option TradingHow Option Pricing Works
Option pricing is influenced by market structure, volatility, liquidity, and hedging flows.
Three components determine premium:
Intrinsic Value
For Call Option:
Max(Spot price – Strike price, 0)
For Put Option:
Max(Strike price – Spot price, 0)
Time Value
Extra value based on:
Time left to expiry
Volatility
Market expectations
Demand & supply
As expiry approaches:
Time value decays → Premium decreases
This is called theta decay.
Implied Volatility (IV)
IV measures the market’s expectation of future movement.
High IV → High premiums
Low IV → Low premiums
Events that cause IV spikes:
Budget announcements
RBI policy decisions
Elections
Global news
Understanding IV is essential for timing entry, especially for option sellers.
Part 1 Technical Analysis VS. Institutional Option Trading Introduction to Option Trading
Options are financial derivatives—meaning their value is derived from an underlying asset such as:
Stocks (e.g., TCS, HDFC Bank)
Indices (Nifty, Bank Nifty, SENSEX)
Commodities (Gold, Silver, Crude)
Currencies (USD/INR, EUR/INR)
An option gives you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a specific price before a specific date.
There are two major types of options:
Call Option → Right to buy
Put Option → Right to sell
You pay a small amount called premium to obtain this right.
BEL 1 Day Time Frame 📌 📊 BEL 1‑Day Key Technical Levels
Approx Current Price (latest quotes today):
Around ₹415–₹419 range on NSE/BSE today (daily range seen ~₹415.85–₹424.55).
📈 How to Read These Levels (Daily Chart)
Bullish bias: Price holding above Pivot (~₹403–₹417) and especially above R1 (~₹409–₹421) suggests strength and scope to test R2/R3 (~₹423–₹426+).
Support guard: S1/S2 zones (~₹396–₹412) act as key intraday floors — break below these may extend selling.
High‑probability range: Most of the day’s action tends to unfold between S1 and R2 before breakout/ breakdown.
📊 Daily Price Context
Recent day’s low ~₹408.50 and high ~₹419.00 shows volatility and testing of higher supply near ₹421+.
52‑week range remains between ~₹240 and ~₹436, so current price is near upper band historically.
⚠️ Quick Notes
These are technical reference levels (support/resistance/pivots) and not buy/sell calls.
Markets move quickly; for live tick‑by‑tick data use a brokerage platform or real‑time charting tool.
MCX 1 Day Time Frame 📌 MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd) — Daily Levels
(Based on latest technical snapshot ~21 Jan 2026)
🔹 Current Price (approx):
₹2,320 (as of latest update)
📈 Daily Pivot & Key Levels
Resistance
R1: ₹2,394 – Immediate resistance
R2: ₹2,469 – Next upside barrier
R3: ₹2,513 – Higher resistance zone
Support
S1: ₹2,275 – First support
S2: ₹2,231 – Medium support
S3: ₹2,156 – Stronger support on dips
📊 Moving Averages (Daily)
Bullish long‑term bias seen with higher moving averages:
20‑day SMA/EMA: ₹2,253 / ₹2,259
50‑day SMA/EMA: ₹2,098 / ₹2,115
100‑day SMA: ₹1,887
200‑day SMA: ₹1,667
Price trading above most medium/long MAs suggests an overall uptrend persists on the daily time frame.
🔎 Daily Technical Indicator Notes
RSI (~14): ~64 – Mild bullish momentum, not yet overbought.
MACD: Bullish trend continuation.
ADX: Strong trend strength indication.
MRPL 1 Day Time Frame 📈 MRPL Latest Intraday Snapshot (1‑Day Time Frame)
Last traded / Current Price: ₹155.40 on NSE (latest price update for the day)
Price Change: Up ~₹1.11 (+0.72%) from previous close
Today’s Open: ₹155.00
Day’s Low: ₹152.60
Day’s High: ₹158.75
Previous Close: ₹154.29
📊 Intraday Movement (1‑Day Range)
The stock opened slightly above the prior close and has been trading between ₹152.60 and ₹158.75 so far today, showing typical intraday volatility for MRPL.
📌 Summary (1‑Day Time‑Frame View):
✔ Price is trending slightly higher intraday.
✔ Intraday range indicates momentum above recent lows.
ALLDIGI 1 Month View📊 Current Price Context (Recent)
Last close around ₹770–₹800 range on NSE.
📈 Key 1-Month Support & Resistance Levels
Classic Pivot Levels (short-term focus)
(These are useful for intraday to swing trades within ~1 month)
R3 (Strong Resistance): ~₹785–₹846
R2: ~₹781–₹830
R1: ~₹777–₹803
Pivot: ~₹773–₹776
S1: ~₹769–₹748
S2: ~₹765–₹722
S3 (Strong Support): ~₹761–₹722
(Ranges reflect slightly different calculations from multiple sources)
In simple terms:
Near-term resistance: ₹780–₹845
Turnaround pivot zone: ₹770–₹775
Support zone: ₹722–₹770
📉 Moving Averages (Short-to-Medium Term)
Shorter and medium SMAs/EMAs tend to act as dynamic support/resistance over a month:
20-day MA: ~₹817–₹840 (above current price) — potential resistance zone.
50-day MA: ~₹838–₹842 — also overhead resistance.
100–200 day averages: significantly higher — longer-term trend resistance points.
This suggests the stock is trading below key moving averages, which can signal a bearish or consolidating phase short-term.
📊 Oscillators & Momentum Metres
RSI near neutral to slightly oversold/flat levels recently.
Some technical sources report mixed signals (neutral to bearish).
🧠 Short-Term Technical Take
Bullish scenario:
• Break above ₹785–₹803 and then ₹820–₹845 could open space toward February highs.
Bearish scenario:
• Failure at resistance and break below ₹760–₹748 may accelerate downward movement.
Neutral/consolidation:
• Likely continuation of rangekeeping between ₹722–₹845 until clearer directional momentum appears.
Part 1 Institutional vs. Technical Key Option Terminologies
1. Strike Price
The agreed price at which the asset can be bought or sold.
2. Expiry Date
The last date on which the option contract is valid.
3. Premium
The price paid by the option buyer to the seller.
4. Lot Size
The fixed quantity of underlying assets per option contract.
5. Open Interest (OI)
Total number of outstanding option contracts.
Part 2 Candle Stick PatternOption Buyer vs Option Seller
Option Buyer
Pays premium upfront
Has limited loss (premium)
Unlimited or large profit potential
Suffers from time decay
Option Seller (Writer)
Receives premium upfront
Limited profit (premium received)
Potentially unlimited loss (especially naked calls)
Benefits from time decay
Part 1 Candle Stick Pattern Call Options Explained
A Call Option gives the buyer the right to buy the underlying asset at a specified strike price before or at expiry.
Example:
Stock price: ₹100
Call strike price: ₹105
Expiry: 1 month
Premium paid: ₹3
If the stock rises to ₹115:
Intrinsic value = ₹10
Profit = ₹10 − ₹3 = ₹7
If the stock stays below ₹105:
Option expires worthless
Maximum loss = premium paid (₹3)
Use Cases:
Bullish market view
Leverage with limited downside
Substitute for stock ownership
Intraday Institutiona Trading Introduction to Option Trading
Option trading is a sophisticated financial strategy that allows investors and traders to buy or sell the right—but not the obligation—to trade an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific time period. Unlike traditional stock trading, where profits depend primarily on price movement direction, option trading enables participants to profit from price movement, volatility, time decay, and even stagnation.
Options are widely used across global financial markets, including equities, indices, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies. They serve multiple purposes: hedging risk, generating income, speculation, and portfolio optimization.
While option trading can offer high reward potential, it also carries complexity and risk. A deep understanding of its mechanics is essential before participating actively.
Next week: Will gold listen to the Fed… or the White House?🔎 Context
Next week could be highly volatile as monetary policy and geopolitics converge.
Donald Trump signaled a potential 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada moves closer to trade deals with China—raising trade-war risks.
At the same time, military assets are being deployed en masse around Iran, heightening concerns that tensions could escalate.
👉 Safe-haven flows may return, with gold potentially opening the week gap-up and early buying.
🧠 Quick take
Primary trend: Bullish
At elevated prices: a short, sharp shakeout is possible to absorb liquidity
No top/bottom calls—watch price reactions at key zones
📌 Key levels to watch
🟢 Supports: 4920–4900 | 4890–4882 | 4850–4830 | 4660–4640
🔴 Observation resistances: 5006–5030–5090 | 5110–5115 | Current ATH
🎭 Weekly scenarios (reference only)
Early week: Gap-up / early push
Pre-FOMC: Chop & liquidity sweep
Then: Deep shakeout or base-building and continuation
👉 Distribution at the top—or just a pause before the next leg higher?
Dhampur Bio Organics cmp 95.76 by Daily Chart viewDhampur Bio Organics cmp 95.76 by Daily Chart view
- Support Zone 75 to 85 Price Band
- Resistance Zone 95 to 105 Price Band
- Resistance Zone holding strong since a year from January 2025
- Head & Shoulders around Support Zone and last Rounding Bottom
- Heavy Volumes surge seen last week Friday by demand based buying
- Bullish Rounding Bottoms with good consolidation around Support Zone
- Falling Resistance Trendlines Breakout with Rising Support Trendline been respected






















