UPL by KRS Charts21st October 2024 / 10:05 AM
Why UPL ❓
1️⃣ UPL is Bullish Stock long term wise with Decent Fundamentals. 📈
2️⃣ Recent March Low seems like Higher Low in bigger picture ✅
3️⃣ UPL has Formed Inverted H&S and Breakout from it and currently Reversing to Bullish again after Retesting from Prev. Resistance. ↗️
4️⃣ 1D TF, Bullish Hammer is visible and today also moving strong Upside 🔅
UPL Target 716 Rs with SL of 520 1W Closing Basis
UPL
Sharda Cropchem for 60% gainsDate: 11 Nov’24
Symbol: SHARDACROP
Timeframe: Daily
Sharda Cropchem seems to be in Wave III of 3 which is heading towards 1350 (~60% from current price of 800) as seen in the chart. Wave 3 could even extend to 1500 which can be reviewed after closing above 1100 in Wave V of 3. Recent Q2 results are good with better margins compared to last FY.
This is not a trade recommendation. Please do your own analysis. And I have the right to be wrong.
HINGLISH VERSION
Jaisa ki chart mein dekha gaya hai, Sharda Cropchem 3 ke Wave III mein dikh raha hai jo 1350 (800 ki maujooda keemat se ~60%) ki taraf badh raha hai. Wave 3 1500 tak bhi jaa sakta hai; jiskee sameeksha 3 ke Wave V mein 1100 se upar band hone ke baad ki jaa sakti hai. Pichhle FY ki tulana mein behatar margin ke saath haal ke Q2 ke nateeje achchhe hain.
Yah koi trade lene ya nivesh karne ki salah nahin hai. Kripya apna vishleshan svayan karen. Aur mujhe galat hone ka adhikaar hai.
UPL | Wyckoff Events & Phases Explained Wyckoff developed a price action market theory which is still a leading principle in today's trading practice.
The Wyckoff method states that the price cycle of a traded instrument consists of 4 stages – Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and MarkDown.
👉TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE Accumulation Schematic: Wyckoff Events and Phases👈
Price Action Analysis
And this is the accumulation stage -
1) PS— Preliminary Support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a continued down-move.
- Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
2) SC—Selling Climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually in high point and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom.
- Often price will close well off the low in an SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
3) AR—Automatic Rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly decline.
- A wave of buying easily pushes prices up.
- The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation.
4) ST—Secondary Test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand.
- If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be decline as the market approaches support in the area of the SC.
- It is common to have multiple STs after an SC.
5) SOS—Sign Of Strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume.
6) LPS—Last Point Of Support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS.
7) BU/LPS- Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistant, on diminished spread and volume.
All the phases of accumulation stage-
Phase A:
Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend.
-- Up to this point, supply has been dominant.
-- The approaching cutback of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC).
-- A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC.
-- If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation.
-- Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above.
Phase B:
-- Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend
-- In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup.
--There are usually multiple STs during Phase B'
-- Institutional buying and selling impart the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.
--Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume.
Phase C:
-- It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a final test of the remaining supply.
-- this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears).
-- It indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.
-- The appearance of an SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis.
Phase D:
--During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top
--LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E:
--large operators can occur at any point in Phase E.
--These are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.
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UPL -Cup and Handle - Breakout with volumeUPL -Cup and Handle - Breakout with volume
Name - UPL
Pattern - Cup and Handle
Timeframe - Daily
Status - Breakout with good volume
Cmp - 598
Target - 719
SL - 584
Pattern: Cup and Handle
The Cup and Handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern
Fundamentals:
Here are some key fundamental ratios for UPL Ltd.:
Market Cap: ₹44,908.86 Cr1
Current Price: ₹598.301
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 14.782
Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 5.981
Return on Equity (ROE): -4.83%3
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 1.153
Dividend Yield: 0.17%1
UPL Ltd. is a major player in the agrochemical industry, but its recent financial performance shows some challenges, particularly with a negative ROE and a high debt-to-equity ratio3.
UPL : An Investment IdeaUPL is at good support zone which is visible on the chart. please follow the line very strictly as Stop-loss.
ABOUT
UPL is principally engaged in the business of agrochemicals, industrial chemicals, chemical intermediates, speciality chemicals and production and sale of field crops and vegetable seeds.
KEY POINTS
Business Overview :
UPL is a leading provider of agricultural solutions and services, with 14,000+ product registrations, a presence in ~140 countries, access to 90% of the world’s food basket. The products include Crop Protection Chemicals like Insecticides, Fungicides, Herbicides etc. also Seeds, Biosolutions. It is a 5th largest Agrochemical company globally with 43 manufacturing facilities across the globe.
Market Leadership :
UPL SAS is the no. 1 crop protection player in India with a market share of 13%. Through its agtech platform ‘Nurture' it is connected with ~3 million registered farmers, 85,000+ retailers and 25,000 dealers. UPL Corporation Ltd is a 6th top Global crop protection company having presence in over 130 countries. UPL Speciality Chemicals is no. 1 Specialty chemicals company in India.
Revenue Segment :
Crop Protection (84% in 9M FY24 vs 88% in FY22) ** - includes the manufacture and marketing of conventional agrochemical products, and other agricultural related products.
Seed Business (11% in 9M FY24 vs 6% in FY22 ) - includes the manufacture and marketing of seeds.
Non- Agro- 6% in 9M FY24 vs 5% in FY22)** - Manufactures and markets industrial chemical and other non agricultural related products.
Geographical Revenue Share :
Latin America - 41%
North America - 16%
Europe - 14%
India - 12%
Rest of the World - 17%
Holding Patterns : (please check time to time)
Promoter holding - 32.4 %
Public holding - 16.4 %
DII holding - 16.8 %
FII holding - 34.4 %
Company Fundamentals : (Dec Q. 2023)
Market Cap - ₹ 36,982 Cr.
CMP - 490
ATH - ₹ 865
Book Value - ₹ 385
Dividend Yield - 2.03 %
ROCE - 14.3 % ROE - 13.4 %
Debt to equity - 1.21
Pledged percentage - 0.00 %
Free Cash Flow - ₹ 5462 Cr.
Piotroski score - 7.00
All data is available in public domain..
Source : www.screener.in
Disclaimer : It is my personal view as a trader and for educational purpose only. Equity market involves risk .
Please consult your financial adviser before taking any decision.
UPL LTD - BULLISH BREAKOUT - STRONG UPMOVE POSSIBLE - LONG TERMHi Folks,
I have been studying this sector(agro chemical) for a while. This sector can outplay operational deleverage since sitting on capex since few years. Recently, they did a rights to lessen their debt to save interest on borrowings. UPL is also a market leader in agro chemicals sector with presence across the globe with an array of topline products.
Quarterly results are improving indicating they might be going towards the capacity utilisation they built on capex. Still early days but technically risk-reward is highly favourable.
Elliott Wave Analysis
1. Larger 5 wave is playing out on weekly time frame.
2. 2 of 5 seems to be getting over after decent retracement. Good time and price correction happened.
3. A strong weekly candle above 30 WEMA is visible, more follow ups needed with huge daily candles to signify 3 wave up.
4.Low of 2 can act as an invalidation point for this whole structure.
5. Volumes and delivery are very high near the recent bottom indicating smart money interested in accumulation here.
Happy Trading! Cheers!!
Not a trading recommendation, please do your own due diligence.
Double bottom formation in UPLUPL is forming a double bottom pattern. If it breaks the resistance and confirm the breakout with volume spike, it may go higher. UPL is in a downtrend so limit your position size.
Disclaimer: All information provided here is for educational purposes and not a recommendation, advice, research report, or stock tip of any nature. Analysis Posted here is just our view/personal study method on the stocks, commodities or other instruments and assets.
Potential Trading Opportunity in UPLUPL , is a stock that has been on a downward trend for quite some time. It has been consolidating for the past few days and is also forming a triangular pattern.
Entry is recommended strictly upon closing above 478 , However, it might find support between 454-457 . If that happens, a slightly early entry with a risky stop-loss could be considered, but this approach is only recommended for risk-tolerant traders.
This is just an observation shared, and no specific advice is being provided.
UPL, Stocks to keep in Focus for Upcoming sessions UPL is forming Higher Highs formation, Now stuck near 500 mark
If breaks the trendline & holds below support level it may show correction
However if sustains above Resistance level, Upside Recovery may also come
Keep Tracking Charts
*For Educational purposes
Learn and Practice Price Action Setups
Breakdown in Upl Limited...Chart is self explanatory. Levels of breakdown, possible down-moves (where stock may find support) and resistances (close above which, setup will be invalidated) are clearly defined.
Disclaimer: This is for demonstration and educational purpose only. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
UPL BULLISHUPL Looking like bullish
It is in major suppot & Demand zone
Mostly it can be reveres in this zone
First Target@617
Second Target@710
Stop loss@525
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst. Anything posted here is my own analysis and views. This is created for educational purposes only. Always consult your Financial Advisor before taking any decision or trade.
Happy trading.
Investment_ UPLTrading and investing are completely different in nature.
In trading, we don't care about the prices whether it's fair or not.
We buy high and sell even higher.
But in investing, we should only buy a stock near its intrinsic value. No matter if everyone is making money except us. But, price which is justified by fundamentals are sustainable and proved sustainable historically.
"Intrinsic value is upgraded or declined based on fundamental changes. I amend my intrinsic value every year based on the growth of the company."
So here I am with a stock named UPL. According to Sir Benjamin Graham's method of calculating Intrinsic Value, it is worth around ₹ 815 a share.
Coming to the charts, UPL has been consolidating near weekly resistance for around 70 days. It could've already given a breakout if this "corona wave 2" didn't hit the market. Rs 700 is a major hurdle which will act as a resistance. Beyond that, I think my targets will be achieved. Well, this will not happen overnight. It will take months to even years.
Some questions answered:
Q: At what price should I buy?
A: Well, this stock looks undervalued and I suggest to start accumulating shares NOW.
Q: Should I buy shares tomorrow, at on go?
A: Nope. Divide your capital in at least 3 lots. You buy first lot tomorrow, second and third lot after in time gap of 2-3 weeks (as you like).
Disclaimer: The analysis I've shared is just for informational and educational purposes. This must not be taken as an investment advise.