USD/CAD(20250905)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
① Waller: I believe we should cut interest rates at the next meeting. Multiple rate cuts are possible in the future, but the exact pace depends on the data.
② Musallem: Current interest rates are appropriate, but there are risks in the job market.
③ Bostic: Concerned about inflation, I still believe one rate cut this year is appropriate.
④ The Federal Reserve will hold a payments innovation conference on October 21st, which will discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization.
⑤ Fed Governor nominee Milan: If confirmed, I will maintain the independence of the FOMC.
⑥ Kashkari: There is room for a modest rate cut.
⑦ The Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activity is roughly flat, with businesses and households feeling the impact of tariffs.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
1.3791
Support and Resistance Levels:
1.3824
1.3812
1.3804
1.3778
1.3770
1.3757
Trading Strategy:
If the price breaks above 1.3804, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price at 1.3824.
If the price breaks below 1.3791, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price at 1.3778
Usdcadforecast
USDCAD Bearish Reversal Trade Setup – 3H Chart Analysis (June 26 Entry Zone: 1.37279 – 1.37554
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.37934
🔹 Target: 1.35278
🔹 Risk-to-Reward (RR): ~1:2.5
🧠 Technical Breakdown
Trend Overview:
Overall trend shows a downtrend from earlier June, followed by a corrective bullish move.
Price failed to sustain above the 200 EMA (blue line), indicating continued bearish pressure.
Trade Line Break:
A steep bullish trendline was broken, signaling a potential trend reversal or deeper pullback.
Bearish Rejection Zone:
The purple zone (1.37279 – 1.37554) acted as resistance.
Price formed a lower high and rejected this zone, confirming selling interest.
Entry Strategy:
Short entry is ideally within or just below the rejection zone.
Aggressive entry already in play at current market price (1.36909) after confirmation.
Target Zone:
Projected towards 1.35278, aligning with previous support and fib retracement zone.
Large purple support zone near the target suggests a potential reversal area.
⚠️ Risk Notes
Be cautious of USD volatility due to upcoming economic events (noted with icons on the chart).
Stop loss above previous swing high minimizes risk of fakeouts.
✅ Summary:
This is a bearish swing setup aiming for a significant drop toward 1.35278. The clean rejection from resistance and trendline break supports a high-probability short opportunity with favorable risk-reward.
USDCAD - IS A BULLISH TREND REVERSAL BREWING?Symbol - USDCAD
USDCAD is staging a recovery supported by the recent strength in the US dollar. A potential return to the prior demand zone could reinforce the bullish case for the pair and present an opportunity to establish long positions.
Amid the backdrop of dollar strength, the market appears to be transitioning into a new phase. The pair has ceased making lower lows and is now forming an EQL structure, from which it is attempting to break out of the prevailing downtrend. While the initial liquidity retest may lead to a brief correction, a swift rebound and sustained consolidation above this level would confirm the emergence of a bullish market structure.
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730
Support levels: 1.3660, 1.3648
Despite the recent breakout above descending resistance, selling pressure remains evident, with sellers likely to re-enter near the 1.3686 level. A clear breakout above this area, followed by a shift in market sentiment and consolidation above the 1.3675–1.3686 zone, would validate bullish intent and signal readiness for a broader recovery.
USDCAD - SUPPORT UNDER PRESSURE, WILL THE DOWNTREND CONTINUE?Symbol - USDCAD
CMP - 1.3803
USDCAD continues to test the support within its established trading range amidst a broader global downtrend. While the currency pair remains confined within this range, the pressure on the support persists. The market’s response to false breakouts appears to be weakening, and the price action continues to challenge the 1.3780 level, thereby increasing the likelihood of a further decline.
The US Dollar is showing signs of retreating from resistance and is beginning to decline, exerting a corresponding effect on USDCAD. Should the currency pair breach the 1.3780 level and establish a sustained close below it, this could signal the continuation of the prevailing trend following a consolidation phase.
Resistance Levels: 1.3810, 1.3830
Support Levels: 1.3780, 1.3740
The primary focus remains on the lower boundary of the trading range at 1.3780, The role of this range is to provide consolidation amidst a broader downtrend. Therefore, a decisive breakout below support would likely trigger the initiation of the distribution phase.
USD/CAD 1H Supply Zone Reversal Setup – Bearish Trade Plan🔵 Supply Zone (Resistance)
📍 1.39457 – 1.40000
Price is expected to face selling pressure here. This is a potential reversal area.
🔽 Entry Point: 1.39457
👀 Waiting for price to enter the supply zone before a possible drop.
❌ Stop Loss: 1.40000
🔺 Just above the supply zone – if price breaks this level, the bearish setup is invalid.
🎯 Target: 1.37500
✅ This is the expected take-profit level if price reverses from the supply zone.
Plan Summary
📈 Wait for price to enter the blue supply zone
🛑 Place stop loss at 1.40000
✅ Target at 1.37500
🔄 Risk-to-reward ratio is favorable (~1:2.5)
Chart Structure
🔻 Trend: Bearish
📉 Price is below the 7 EMA (1.39227), confirming downward momentum.
USDCAD EA MAN UPDATE >READ THE CHAPTIANKey Observations:
Support Zone & Trendline: The price is currently pulling back to a support zone, aligning with the ascending trendline, which may provide a bullish reaction.
EMA Confluence: The price is positioned above the 30 EMA (1.43193, red) and approaching the 200 EMA (1.43167, blue), indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
Target Point: If the price holds at the support and resumes its uptrend, the next target is around 1.43803 - 1.43689.
A break and close above the recent high could confirm further bullish movement towards the target zone. However, if the support fails, a deeper retracement may occu
USDCAD - EXPECTING BREAKDOWN OF CONSOLIDATIONSymbol - USDCAD
The USDCAD pair is currently consolidating within the range of 1.4485 to 1.4280 The US dollar has been experiencing negative momentum recently. However, with the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report upcoming, the data could either reinforce the ongoing correction or provide support to the US dollar index. Market attention is focused on today's economic announcements. If the actual NFP results fall below the forecasted 169K, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are likely to strengthen.
Today, The Federal Reserve's monetary policy report will be released, potentially offering further insights into the regulator's future actions. Should the NFP data be weaker than anticipated, the US dollar may depreciate, leading to a potential decline in USDCAD. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, the US dollar is expected to strengthen, driving USDCAD higher. In the event that the Federal Reserve signals a potential rate cut, the US dollar could weaken, thereby supporting the Canadian dollar.
Resistance levels: 1.4345, 1.4370
Support level: 1.4280
Given the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming data, it is challenging to predict the precise market outcome. From a technical perspective, the currency pair appears weak due to the falling value of the US dollar. A break below the 1.4280 support level could signal further downside potential.
USDCAD SHOWING A GOOD DOWN MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD USDCAD SHOWING A GOOD DOWN MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD
DUE TO THESE REASON
A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market
which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable
B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break
C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region
all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward
please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules
that will help you to to become a bettertrader
thank you
USDCAD - SWING TRADE IDEA ON SHORT SIDESymbol - USDCAD
USDCAD is currently trading at 1.4325
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on sell side.
Shorting USDCAD pair at CMP 1.4325
I will add more quantity at 1.4350 & 1.4380, If comes. Holding with SL 1.4420
Targets I'm expecting are 1.4250 - 1.4200 & 1.4155
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
USDCAD - SWING TRADE IDEA ON SHORT SIDESymbol - USDCAD
USDCAD is currently trading at 1.3847
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on sell side.
Shorting USDCAD pair at CMP 1.3847
I will add more quantity at 1.3880, If comes. Holding with SL 1.3910
Targets I'm expecting are 1.3765 - 1.3715 & 1.3662
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
USDCAD - SHORT TRADESymbol - USDCAD
USDCAD is currently trading at 1.37360
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on buy side.
Buying USDCAD pair at CMP 1.37360
I will be adding more if 1.38000 comes & will hold with SL of 1.39000
Targets I'm expecting are 1.36200 - 1.35400 & beyond.
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
USDCAD- 1DThe Dollar has been weaker for this time and thus all the dollar pairs seems to be bearish. This setup looks good for selling opportunity and aiming for 1.3370.
Note- This is my own analysis and thus not to be considered as trading signal, before making any decisions kindly do your own research, as trading is highly risky.
Dollar Hits 6.5-Month High as Central Banks Adjust RatesOn September 21, 2023, the U.S. dollar reached its highest level in 6.5 months after the Federal Reserve indicated that it will continue its restrictive monetary policy. The Swiss franc weakened as the Swiss National Bank decided to keep rates unchanged for the first time since March 2022.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady within the expected range of 5.25%-5.50%. However, they emphasized their commitment to a hawkish policy that aims to control inflation without harming the economy or causing job losses. The Fed's updated projections suggest that interest rates will be tighter than previously thought until 2024.
In Europe, Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's central bank raised rates as expected. The pound fell to its lowest level since April ahead of the Bank of England's policy announcement.
The Japanese yen reached its lowest level since November before the Bank of Japan's policy announcement on Friday. However, market analysts doubted that there would be any significant policy changes in the meeting.
Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened after the Fed's meeting. However, the New Zealand dollar received some support after better-than-expected economic growth data for Q2 2023.
European equities faced challenges as the Fed hinted at the possibility of another rate hike, following a rapid increase in rates over the past 18 months. This was further impacted by the Swiss National Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged and Norway's central bank signaling a potential rate hike in December.