Part 2 Support and Resistance Intrinsic and Time Value
An option’s price consists of two parts:
Intrinsic Value: The actual profit if exercised now.
Time Value: The extra value based on time left until expiry and volatility expectations.
Hedging and Risk Management
Investors use options to hedge against adverse price movements. For example, holding puts can protect a stock portfolio from market declines—similar to buying insurance.
Wave Analysis
Gold 1H – Bearish Reaction After Consecutive Gains🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader
📈 Market Context
After several sessions of steady gains, gold is showing signs of exhaustion as U.S. Treasury yields stabilize and traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s next move.
The market’s focus today is on U.S. housing data and Fed officials’ remarks, which could shape expectations for the December policy outlook.
• A hawkish tone from policymakers may strengthen the dollar and pressure gold lower.
• Conversely, softer remarks could briefly trigger buying around key discount zones, but the overall tone remains corrective after the recent rally.
Market liquidity is concentrated near the ₹4,230 area — where price may tap into unmitigated supply before continuing its bearish leg.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style)
• Structure: The overall bias has shifted bearish following consecutive ChoCH and BOS formations.
• Premium Zone: The 4,230–4,228 area aligns with an H1 order block and previous liquidity pool — a prime zone for short re-entry.
• Liquidity Sweep: The recent upside push toward 4,230 may sweep late buyers before the next bearish leg unfolds.
• Discount Zone: Short-term liquidity may rest around 4,080–4,100, which aligns with previous sell-side imbalance (SSI) and acts as an intraday reaction zone.
🔴 Sell Setup
• Entry: 4,230 – 4,228
• Stop-Loss: 4,240
• Take-Profit Targets: 4,100 → 4,080 → 4,050+
🟢 Buy Scalp Setup (Short-Term Countermove)
• Entry: 4,081 – 4,083
• Stop-Loss: 4,074
• Take-Profit Targets: 4,100 → 4,115
(Only valid if liquidity sweep confirms reaction within discount zone)
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Confirm M15 BOS/ChoCH before entry — avoid blind orders during news.
• Reduce position size for scalp entries; primary directional bias remains bearish.
• Lock partial profits near first liquidity targets and trail stops as structure confirms continuation.
✅ Summary
Gold faces near-term correction pressure after multiple bullish sessions.
The 4,230–4,228 zone offers a clean premium OB entry for continuation shorts, while reactive buyers may scalp intraday from 4,081 if liquidity sweeps occur.
Stay adaptive — today’s sentiment is short-term bearish within a larger range-bound structure.
FOLLOW RYAN_TITANTRADER for daily SMC setups ⚡
Part 2 Candle Stick PatternStrike Price and Expiry Date
Every option has a strike price (the agreed-upon price for buying/selling) and an expiry date (the last date the option can be exercised). These two factors determine an option’s time value and overall profitability.
Premium – The Cost of the Option
The premium is the price paid by the buyer to the seller (writer) of the option. It represents the maximum loss for the buyer and potential profit for the seller if the option expires worthless.
Part 1 Candle Stick PatternDefinition of Options
Options are financial contracts that give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset (like stocks, indices, or commodities) at a predetermined price within a specific time frame. They are a type of derivative since their value depends on the price of another asset.
Types of Options – Call and Put
There are two main types:
Call Option: Gives the right to buy the asset at a fixed price.
Put Option: Gives the right to sell the asset at a fixed price.
Traders use calls when expecting prices to rise and puts when expecting prices to fall.
The Role of Futures Trading in India:Futures Trading Role in India
Futures trading, a vital component of financial markets, has gradually carved a significant niche in India’s economic landscape. It is a type of derivative instrument where two parties agree to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price at a specified future date. These instruments play an essential role in risk management, price discovery, and enhancing market liquidity. India, being a rapidly growing economy with increasing integration into global financial markets, has seen substantial evolution in its futures trading segment over the last two decades.
1. Historical Context of Futures Trading in India
Futures trading in India dates back to the pre-independence era, primarily focused on agricultural commodities. Traditional forward contracts existed informally among farmers, traders, and merchants. However, with modernization and regulatory oversight, formal commodity futures markets emerged. The establishment of the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) in 1953 marked the beginning of a regulated framework for futures trading. Initially, trading was largely concentrated in agricultural commodities like cotton, jute, and grains.
The 1990s economic liberalization in India marked a turning point. Financial sector reforms, introduction of electronic trading, and liberal policies facilitated the growth of derivative instruments, particularly stock and index futures. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) allowed the introduction of futures and options (F&O) on equities in 2000, providing investors and traders new avenues to hedge risk and speculate on price movements. Today, both commodity and financial futures markets are integral parts of India’s capital markets ecosystem.
2. Structure of Futures Markets in India
India has a well-defined framework for futures trading governed by SEBI for financial derivatives and previously FMC for commodity derivatives (now merged with SEBI in 2015). Futures contracts are traded on recognized exchanges like:
National Stock Exchange (NSE)
Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)
National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX)
Futures contracts in India cover various asset classes including equities, indices, commodities (metals, energy, agricultural products), and currencies. Standardized contracts ensure uniformity in terms of quantity, quality, delivery dates, and settlement procedures. Such regulation reduces counterparty risk, a critical factor in promoting investor confidence.
3. Functions and Role of Futures Trading
Futures trading serves several important functions in India’s financial ecosystem:
a. Risk Management and Hedging
One of the primary roles of futures trading is risk management. Businesses, farmers, manufacturers, and investors face price volatility in commodities and financial instruments. Futures contracts allow them to hedge against adverse price movements. For instance:
Agricultural Producers: Farmers can lock in a price for crops such as wheat or soybean months before harvest to protect against price drops.
Industrial Users: Companies reliant on raw materials (like metals or oil) use futures contracts to manage cost fluctuations.
Investors and Portfolio Managers: Equity futures allow investors to hedge stock positions against market downturns.
Hedging through futures reduces uncertainty, stabilizes income, and enables better planning for businesses and investors alike.
b. Price Discovery
Futures markets play a critical role in price discovery. The interaction of buyers and sellers, reflecting supply-demand dynamics, expectations, and global trends, helps establish a transparent market price for assets. Indian futures markets, particularly for commodities like crude oil, gold, and agricultural produce, provide real-time pricing signals, enabling market participants to make informed decisions.
c. Liquidity Provision
Futures trading enhances market liquidity. By attracting a wide array of participants—including speculators, hedgers, and arbitrageurs—the volume and turnover increase. This liquidity ensures smoother transactions and narrower bid-ask spreads. It also allows smaller traders to enter markets without impacting prices significantly.
d. Investment and Speculation
While hedging is a primary motive, futures markets also attract speculators seeking profit from price movements. Speculators, by providing liquidity and taking on risk, play a crucial role in market efficiency. Their participation ensures continuous trading and contributes to price discovery mechanisms.
e. Economic Significance
Futures trading has broader economic implications. It encourages capital formation, efficient allocation of resources, and reduces wastage in commodities markets by providing reliable pricing mechanisms. For agricultural commodities, futures markets help minimize distress sales by farmers, leading to better income stability.
4. Key Futures Products in India
a. Equity and Index Futures
Equity futures are contracts to buy or sell shares of companies at a predetermined price on a future date. Index futures, on the other hand, are based on market indices like Nifty 50 or Sensex, allowing investors to hedge or speculate on the broader market movement. These derivatives have grown exponentially, with NSE being one of the largest derivative exchanges globally by volume.
b. Commodity Futures
Commodity futures in India cover agricultural products (like wheat, soybean, cotton), metals (gold, silver, copper), and energy (crude oil, natural gas). Exchanges like MCX and NCDEX facilitate transparent trading, helping farmers, traders, and industries manage risks associated with price volatility.
c. Currency Futures
Currency futures involve trading in INR against major currencies like USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY. These contracts are crucial for exporters, importers, and multinational companies to hedge foreign exchange risk. NSE and BSE provide active platforms for currency derivatives trading.
5. Regulatory Framework
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) oversees all financial futures and commodity derivatives markets, ensuring investor protection, transparency, and integrity. Key regulatory measures include:
Mandatory margin requirements to reduce counterparty risk.
Strict position limits to avoid market manipulation.
Settlement guarantee mechanisms to ensure contract fulfillment.
Surveillance and monitoring to prevent insider trading and speculative excesses.
This robust regulatory framework has increased investor confidence and contributed to the growth of India’s futures markets.
6. Advantages of Futures Trading in India
Risk Mitigation: Futures provide a tool to hedge against price volatility and protect investments.
Transparent Price Discovery: Open trading ensures fair market prices, reflecting real-time supply-demand conditions.
Market Efficiency: High liquidity and participation reduce inefficiencies and arbitrage opportunities.
Economic Planning: Predictable pricing helps businesses and policymakers make informed decisions.
Investment Opportunities: Futures markets allow both institutional and retail investors to diversify portfolios and potentially earn profits from short-term price movements.
7. Challenges and Risks
Despite its benefits, futures trading carries certain risks:
Leverage Risk: Futures involve high leverage, which can amplify both profits and losses.
Speculative Excess: Excessive speculation may cause volatility, particularly in commodity markets.
Limited Awareness: Many retail investors lack proper understanding of derivative instruments, leading to potential losses.
Regulatory Complexity: Compliance and monitoring requirements can be challenging for new entrants and small traders.
8. Recent Developments and Technological Impact
The last decade has witnessed significant modernization in Indian futures markets. Electronic trading platforms, algorithmic trading, and mobile trading apps have made futures more accessible to retail investors. Advanced risk management tools, real-time analytics, and margin calculators have increased transparency and reduced operational risks. Moreover, SEBI’s initiatives to promote commodity futures among small farmers have enhanced market participation and economic inclusion.
9. Future Outlook
India’s futures trading market is poised for substantial growth due to:
Economic Growth: Expanding industrialization and agricultural modernization increase demand for hedging instruments.
Global Integration: Rising participation in global markets necessitates efficient derivatives to manage cross-border risks.
Financial Literacy: Awareness campaigns and investor education programs encourage participation from retail investors.
Technological Advancement: AI-driven analytics, blockchain-based settlement, and improved trading platforms will increase efficiency and trust.
Policy Support: Government initiatives to promote agricultural and industrial hedging are likely to expand futures market adoption.
Futures trading, therefore, is expected to play an even larger role in stabilizing prices, managing risk, and contributing to India’s economic growth in the coming years.
10. Conclusion
Futures trading in India has evolved from a small, commodity-focused market to a sophisticated ecosystem encompassing equities, indices, commodities, and currencies. Its primary roles—hedging, risk management, price discovery, and liquidity provision—make it an indispensable component of modern financial markets. With growing investor awareness, technological innovation, and regulatory support, futures markets are expected to continue expanding, driving efficiency and stability in India’s economy. While risks and challenges remain, the benefits—both for individual investors and the broader economy—underscore the critical role of futures trading in shaping India’s financial landscape.
Controlling Trading Risk Factors1. Understanding Trading Risk
Before discussing control measures, it is crucial to understand what trading risk is. Trading risk refers to the potential for financial loss arising from market movements, operational errors, or external factors. Risk can be divided into several types:
Market Risk – The possibility that the market moves against your position. For example, a sudden drop in stock prices affects long positions.
Liquidity Risk – The risk of not being able to exit a trade at a desired price due to insufficient market activity.
Leverage Risk – Using borrowed funds amplifies both potential gains and potential losses.
Operational Risk – Mistakes in trade execution, technology failures, or system errors.
Psychological Risk – Emotional trading due to fear or greed can lead to impulsive decisions.
Event Risk – Unexpected events, such as geopolitical issues, economic crises, or corporate announcements, can create volatility.
Understanding these risks helps traders implement strategies to mitigate potential losses.
2. Establishing a Risk Management Plan
A risk management plan is a trader’s blueprint for controlling exposure to risk. Without a plan, trading becomes speculative gambling rather than a calculated activity. A well-defined risk management plan should include the following elements:
a. Define Your Risk Tolerance
Risk tolerance refers to the amount of loss a trader is willing to accept on a trade or overall portfolio. Factors influencing risk tolerance include:
Financial capacity: How much capital can you afford to lose without affecting your livelihood?
Trading style: Day traders generally accept smaller losses per trade, while long-term investors may tolerate temporary volatility.
Psychological resilience: Emotional strength is key to sticking with a strategy during losing streaks.
Practical Tip: Limit risk per trade to a small percentage of total capital—commonly 1-2%. This ensures that a few bad trades do not wipe out your account.
b. Set Clear Objectives
Traders must define their financial goals and time horizon. Risk control strategies vary based on whether you aim for short-term profits, steady income, or long-term wealth accumulation. Clear objectives help avoid overtrading and speculative behavior.
c. Use Position Sizing
Position sizing is the method of determining how much capital to allocate to a particular trade based on your risk tolerance. Proper position sizing reduces the risk of catastrophic losses.
Example:
If a trader has $50,000 and is willing to risk 2% per trade ($1,000), and the stop-loss distance is $5 per share, the position size = $1,000 ÷ $5 = 200 shares.
Position sizing ensures that losses are proportional to your risk tolerance.
3. Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders
The most fundamental tools in risk management are stop-loss and take-profit orders.
Stop-Loss: Automatically closes a trade when it reaches a specified loss level. This prevents small losses from turning into catastrophic ones.
Take-Profit: Automatically closes a trade when it reaches a target profit. This locks in gains and prevents greed-driven reversals.
Best Practices:
Place stop-loss orders at strategic technical levels, such as support or resistance, rather than arbitrary amounts.
Adjust stop-loss levels as the trade moves in your favor to lock in profits (trailing stops).
4. Diversification
Diversification is a core principle in reducing risk. It involves spreading capital across multiple assets, sectors, or markets to avoid exposure to a single source of loss.
Examples of diversification strategies:
Investing in different asset classes: stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.
Trading multiple industries or sectors to reduce company-specific risks.
Combining long and short positions to hedge market movements.
Caution: Over-diversification may dilute profits. Balance diversification with focus.
5. Leverage Management
Leverage magnifies both profits and losses. Excessive leverage is one of the fastest ways traders destroy their capital. Controlling leverage is critical to risk management.
Guidelines:
Use conservative leverage ratios, especially for beginners.
Calculate potential loss before opening a leveraged position.
Understand margin requirements and liquidation risks.
Leverage is a double-edged sword; disciplined use can enhance gains, but careless use can wipe out accounts.
6. Monitoring and Controlling Market Volatility
Market volatility increases risk, as prices may swing dramatically within short periods. Traders can control volatility risk through:
Volatility Stop-Loss: Adjust stop-loss distances according to market volatility. Higher volatility requires wider stops.
Avoid Trading During Extreme Events: Avoid trading during major announcements, elections, or geopolitical crises unless part of a specific high-risk strategy.
Use Options and Hedging: Options contracts and futures can hedge positions against unexpected price swings.
Volatility management is about balancing opportunity with protection.
7. Regular Risk Assessment
Risk is dynamic; it evolves with changing market conditions. Traders should continuously assess exposure to risk using:
Value at Risk (VaR): Estimates the maximum potential loss in a portfolio over a specified period.
Stress Testing: Simulates extreme market conditions to evaluate how positions perform under stress.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Aims for trades with favorable ratios, e.g., 1:2 risk/reward, meaning potential gains exceed potential losses.
Regular assessment ensures traders adapt strategies before losses escalate.
8. Controlling Psychological Risk
Emotions are among the most dangerous risk factors. Fear and greed often override rational analysis, leading to impulsive trading.
Techniques to control psychological risk:
Follow a Trading Plan: Predefined rules for entry, exit, and risk prevent emotional decisions.
Maintain a Trading Journal: Document trades, decisions, and emotional state to identify patterns of bias.
Accept Losses: Avoid revenge trading to recover losses; stick to risk limits.
Mindfulness and Discipline: Practices like meditation, exercise, and scheduled breaks can improve decision-making under stress.
Emotional control is as important as technical analysis in trading.
9. Technology and Risk Management
Modern trading relies heavily on technology, but it introduces operational risks. Traders should mitigate these risks by:
Using reliable trading platforms with robust backup systems.
Regularly updating software and security protocols.
Setting alerts for significant market moves.
Implementing automated risk controls, such as algorithmic stop-loss or position size adjustments.
Technology, when used responsibly, enhances risk control.
10. Continuous Education and Market Awareness
Markets evolve constantly. Regulatory changes, technological developments, and global events impact risk. Traders should:
Stay informed about macroeconomic indicators and news.
Continuously learn new risk management techniques.
Review past trades and strategies to identify mistakes and successes.
Education reduces the risk of being blindsided by unforeseen market events.
11. Advanced Risk Control Techniques
For experienced traders, advanced techniques can further reduce risk exposure:
Hedging: Using derivative instruments like options, futures, or CFDs to offset potential losses.
Correlation Analysis: Understanding how assets move relative to each other to avoid unintended concentration of risk.
Scaling In and Out: Entering or exiting positions in stages to manage exposure.
Algorithmic Risk Controls: Automated trading systems can enforce discipline and minimize human error.
These strategies require knowledge and practice but can significantly enhance risk management.
12. Building a Risk-Resilient Trading Mindset
The ultimate defense against trading risk is a resilient mindset. A trader must:
Accept that losses are inevitable; success comes from managing them.
Focus on long-term consistency rather than short-term wins.
Combine technical and fundamental analysis with disciplined risk strategies.
View risk management as a proactive process, not a reactionary one.
The mindset shift from “maximizing profits” to “minimizing losses” is key to sustainable trading.
Conclusion
Trading risk is unavoidable, but it is controllable. Effective risk management encompasses strategic planning, disciplined execution, emotional control, and continuous learning. By defining risk tolerance, using stop-losses, managing leverage, diversifying portfolios, and applying advanced techniques, traders can protect their capital while pursuing profits.
Ultimately, controlling trading risk is not about eliminating it—this is impossible—but about managing it in a calculated, disciplined manner. Traders who master risk control enjoy longevity in the markets, preserve capital, and create a foundation for consistent, sustainable growth.
Exploring Financial Market Types1. Money Market
The money market is a segment of the financial market that deals with short-term borrowing and lending of funds, usually with maturities of one year or less. It is primarily used by corporations, financial institutions, and governments to manage short-term liquidity needs.
Key Instruments in the Money Market:
Treasury Bills (T-Bills): Short-term debt instruments issued by governments to raise funds. They are considered risk-free and highly liquid.
Commercial Papers (CPs): Unsecured promissory notes issued by corporations to meet short-term funding needs. They generally have maturities ranging from a few days to nine months.
Certificates of Deposit (CDs): Time deposits issued by banks that pay a fixed interest upon maturity.
Repurchase Agreements (Repos): Short-term borrowing agreements where securities are sold and later repurchased at a predetermined price.
Functions:
Liquidity Management: Provides short-term funds to banks, corporations, and governments.
Efficient Allocation: Facilitates smooth functioning of the banking system.
Monetary Policy Transmission: Central banks use the money market to implement monetary policy through instruments like repos and T-bills.
The money market is characterized by low risk and relatively lower returns compared to long-term markets. Its efficiency ensures that the economy maintains liquidity and stability.
2. Capital Market
Capital markets deal with long-term funds, generally with maturities exceeding one year. They are crucial for economic growth as they enable corporations and governments to raise funds for investments in infrastructure, expansion, and other productive activities. Capital markets are broadly divided into primary markets and secondary markets.
a. Primary Market:
Also known as the new issue market, it is where new securities are issued and sold to investors.
Initial Public Offerings (IPOs): Companies raise equity by offering shares to the public for the first time.
Bond Issuance: Governments and corporations raise debt funds by issuing bonds.
b. Secondary Market:
Once securities are issued in the primary market, they are traded in the secondary market. Examples include stock exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ, and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
Functions of Capital Markets:
Capital Formation: Enables businesses to raise funds for long-term growth.
Investment Opportunities: Provides a platform for individuals and institutions to invest their savings in productive assets.
Price Discovery: Helps determine the market value of securities through supply-demand dynamics.
Liquidity: Secondary markets allow investors to buy and sell securities easily, ensuring liquidity.
Participants in Capital Markets:
Retail investors
Institutional investors (mutual funds, pension funds)
Investment banks and brokers
Regulatory authorities (SEBI, SEC)
Capital markets are more volatile than money markets but offer higher potential returns due to the long-term nature of investments.
3. Derivative Markets
Derivative markets are financial markets where instruments derived from underlying assets are traded. The underlying assets can include stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, or market indices. Common derivatives include futures, options, forwards, and swaps.
Purpose of Derivatives:
Hedging: Investors use derivatives to manage or mitigate risk associated with price fluctuations.
Speculation: Traders aim to profit from price movements in the underlying asset.
Arbitrage: Derivatives allow traders to exploit price differences across markets.
Types of Derivative Instruments:
Futures: Contracts obligating the purchase or sale of an asset at a predetermined price on a specific future date.
Options: Contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a set price within a certain period.
Forwards: Customized contracts between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specified future date and price.
Swaps: Agreements to exchange cash flows or other financial instruments between parties.
Derivative markets play a vital role in financial risk management but are complex and may involve significant leverage, making them riskier than money or capital markets.
4. Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)
The foreign exchange market, or Forex, is where currencies are bought and sold. It is the largest financial market globally, with trillions of dollars traded daily. Forex facilitates international trade, investment, and tourism by providing liquidity in different currencies.
Key Features:
Decentralized Market: Operates 24/7 without a central exchange.
Participants: Banks, corporations, central banks, hedge funds, and retail traders.
Major Instruments: Spot transactions, forwards, futures, and options in currencies.
Functions:
Currency Conversion: Enables businesses to transact internationally.
Hedging Exchange Rate Risk: Companies can hedge against fluctuations in currency values.
Speculation: Traders profit from currency movements.
Global Liquidity: Supports global trade and investment flows.
The Forex market is highly liquid and volatile, influenced by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events, and central bank policies.
5. Commodity Markets
Commodity markets are where raw materials and primary products are traded. These markets include energy, metals, and agricultural commodities. Trading can occur through physical markets or financial instruments such as futures and options.
Types of Commodities:
Agricultural Products: Wheat, rice, coffee, sugar.
Metals: Gold, silver, copper, platinum.
Energy: Crude oil, natural gas, coal.
Functions of Commodity Markets:
Price Discovery: Determines the fair market value of commodities through supply and demand.
Risk Management: Producers and consumers hedge against price volatility.
Investment Opportunities: Investors diversify portfolios by including commodities.
Economic Indicator: Commodity prices reflect economic trends and inflation expectations.
Commodity markets can be highly volatile due to weather conditions, geopolitical events, and global demand-supply dynamics.
6. Other Financial Market Segments
In addition to the major market types, several specialized financial markets exist:
Insurance Market: Provides risk management solutions against unforeseen events.
Pension Funds Market: Manages retirement savings and invests in long-term securities.
Credit Market: Focuses on lending and borrowing of debt instruments.
Venture Capital and Private Equity Markets: Provides funding to startups and private companies.
These specialized markets complement traditional markets by addressing specific financial needs and enhancing overall market efficiency.
Conclusion
Financial markets are diverse, dynamic, and interconnected. They are crucial for economic growth, providing platforms for capital formation, liquidity, risk management, and investment. Each market type—money, capital, derivatives, forex, and commodities—serves unique functions and caters to different investor needs. Participants range from retail investors to multinational corporations and central banks, collectively shaping the global financial ecosystem. Understanding these markets enables investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions, manage risks effectively, and optimize returns. As the world becomes increasingly globalized and technologically driven, financial markets continue to evolve, creating new opportunities and challenges in the pursuit of economic growth and financial stability.
Intermediate wave 4 correction.As expected earlier Gold shoot over 4308 but ultimately fell below it ,next day we had got a good green candle however volume was not huge probably indicating local buying. This chart is weekly time frame not shown that. It seems C wave of correction is in progress. Intermediate 3rd wave is completed around 4308 now 4 th wave is in progress. Still Gold has left with primary 3 rd and 4th wave. This on going intermediate 4 th wave might take time.we can see intermediate 2nd wave had taken several weeks to complete and had retraced 50 percent of corresponding 1st wave. Let us observe how this 4th wave unfolds. Please go through my other posts of Gold and see their accuracy.
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NATURALGAS - Getting Ready for the next impulse?
CMP: 3.4970
TF: 4 Hours
The script seems to have ended it's correction and ready to move up higher.
wave counts are marked herein for better understanding.
Break of 3.5320 will be the initial confirmation/validation.
This view becomes invalid if we start to trade below 3.3252
On Pitchfork, price is trying to get past the midpoint.. Our confirmation level too confluences around the same level.
On Daily timeframe, it looks like breakout and retest of the falling trendline from the highs.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
XAUUSD Forms a Cup and Handle PatternOANDA:XAUUSD has been steadily rising, maintaining strong and consistent upward momentum. If you’ve been following my previous analyses, you’ll notice a familiar pattern developing on the chart — the classic Cup and Handle formation.
Looking closer, the left side of the chart reveals a strong supply zone, forming the cup. Then, we see the market building a potential handle on the right, indicating that the price is accumulating strength for the next move.
Now, here’s where things get interesting: if buying pressure aligns with Dow Theory waves and the Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.786 and 0.618 hold steady, with the price breaking through the neckline, this setup could push gold to 4500 USD.
However, if selling pressure comes in stronger than expected, the pattern may fail, and we could see a price pullback.
NIFTY at major resistance levelThe up move which started on 8th Aug seems to be forming into an expanding triangle
Currently we're in Wave E which has reached 1.27 times of Wave C.
There's not yet a confirmation of a down move starting but should be cautious at this level.
Could be a good time to book partial profits.
Will keep you guys posted as the move advances and future possibilities
Stay Tuned...
HAPPY TRADING!
Divergence SecretsOption Greeks: Measuring Sensitivity
The Option Greeks are metrics that measure how different factors affect an option’s price. The key Greeks include:
Delta: Change in option price relative to the underlying asset’s price.
Theta: Time decay effect.
Vega: Sensitivity to volatility changes.
Gamma: Rate of change of Delta.
Rho: Sensitivity to interest rates.
These Greeks help traders understand risk exposure and manage positions scientifically. For example, a trader might use Theta to manage time decay in short-term options or Vega to hedge against volatility spikes. Mastery of Greeks is crucial for professional option traders who aim for consistency and precision.
Option Trading Leverage and Speculation in Option Trading
Options provide leverage, allowing traders to control large positions with small investments. For instance, buying a single call option can represent ownership of 100 shares, magnifying both profits and losses. Speculators use this leverage to capitalize on short-term market moves. However, leverage also increases risk—if the market moves against the position, the entire premium can be lost. Successful speculators use strict risk management, combining analysis of volatility, momentum, and time decay to optimize entries and e
Gold 1H – Can Gold Hold Above 4247 as Powell Takes the Stage?XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader
📈 Market Context
Gold holds firm near ₹4,230, with traders cautiously awaiting U.S. Retail Sales data and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks later today.
After a series of softer inflation reports, market sentiment has tilted mildly dovish — yet the U.S. dollar remains steady as investors hesitate to price in early rate cuts.
The Fed’s tone today will be critical: a hawkish Powell could trigger short-term profit-taking on gold, while any dovish signals may reignite safe-haven bids.
Expect choppy intraday movement with liquidity sweeps around key zones before a confirmed directional move emerges.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style)
• The structure remains bullish, confirmed by previous Breaks of Structure (BOS) and a Change of Character (ChoCH) earlier in the week.
• Price is now approaching a premium supply zone at 4247–4249, where potential short-term sell reactions could appear before retracement.
• Below, the discount demand zone at 4184–4186 aligns with prior BOS support and acts as a high-probability reaccumulation area.
• If price revisits the buy zone and forms bullish confirmation on M15, continuation toward new highs around 4260+ is favored.
🔴 Sell Setup: 4247 – 4249
SL: 4255 – 4257
TP targets: 4210 → 4195
🟢 Buy Setup: 4184 – 4186
SL: 4174
TP targets: 4210 → 4245 → 4260+
⚠️ Risk Management Tips
• Wait for M15 BOS/ChoCH confirmation before executing either setup.
• Watch for volatility spikes around Powell’s speech and U.S. Retail Sales release — spreads may widen.
• Consider partial profits at intra-day liquidity points and trail stops once structure confirms.
✅ Summary
XAUUSD maintains its bullish structure but may face a liquidity sweep above 4247–4249 before a deeper retracement into 4184–4186.
Institutional activity could drive accumulation near the discount zone if macro data supports dovish sentiment.
The intraday bias remains “Buy the Dip”, with tactical sells possible at premium resistance for short-term scalps.
Gold 1H – Slight Correction or Bullish Reaccumulation Ahead?XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader
📈 Market Context
Gold extends its rebound near ₹4 250 as traders weigh the recent uptick in U.S. Treasury yields against growing expectations of a softer Federal Reserve stance.
After the latest mixed U.S. economic data, markets are leaning toward a mildly dovish outlook — rate-cut bets for early 2026 are gaining traction, while the dollar remains steady.
Today’s focus centers on U.S. housing-starts and jobless-claims data, which could steer short-term volatility.
A stronger-than-expected report may trigger temporary selling pressure on gold, while weaker figures could revive safe-haven demand and extend the rally toward ₹4 380 +.
Expect liquidity hunts before any clear directional move, as institutional players refine positions near the week’s range extremes.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style)
• Market structure remains bullish, with previous Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming continuation after the earlier accumulation phase.
• A short-term Change of Character (ChoCH) signals corrective movement — likely a liquidity sweep before the next bullish leg.
• Liquidity resting below ₹4 200 has already been taken, aligning with the discount zone around ₹4 196 – ₹4 198.
• A potential re-accumulation is forming; buyers may look for confirmation (M15 BOS/ChoCH) inside this demand zone.
• Upside liquidity targets cluster near ₹4 375 – ₹4 380, coinciding with a premium supply zone where sellers might re-enter.
🔴 Sell Setup
Entry: 4378 – 4376
Stop-Loss: 4386
Take-Profit Targets: 4325 → 4260
🟢 Buy Setup
Entry: 4196 – 4198
Stop-Loss: 4190
Take-Profit Targets: 4250 → 4370 → 4380 +
⚠️ Risk Management Tips
• Wait for lower-timeframe BOS/ChoCH confirmation before execution.
• Be cautious around U.S. macro data releases — spreads and volatility can widen temporarily.
• Use partial take-profits at nearby liquidity zones and trail stops once market structure confirms continuation.
✅ Summary
Gold maintains its bullish bias above ₹4 200 after sweeping liquidity.
A short-term correction could retest ₹4 196 – ₹4 198 for fresh buy entries, while the broader trend remains upward.
Only a clean structural break below ₹4 190 would invalidate the bullish continuation scenario.
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BAJAJ-AUTO ! day time Frame Price & range context
Last close: ~ ₹9,150.50.
Day’s range: approx ₹9,090.50 (low) to ₹9,194.50 (high).
52-week range: from ~ ₹7,089.35 (low) to ~ ₹10,829.85 (high).
Key technical levels (daily pivot / support / resistance)
From sources:
Classic daily pivot: ~ ₹9,145.17.
Immediate support levels: ~ ₹9,095.83, ~ ₹9,041.17, ~ ₹8,991.83.
Immediate resistance levels: ~ ₹9,199.83, ~ ₹9,249.17, ~ ₹9,303.83.
So, roughly speaking:
A support zone around ₹9,040–9,100.
A resistance zone around ₹9,200–9,300.
The pivot is close to the current level (~₹9,145), which suggests the stock is near a “balance” level for the day.
RECLTD 1 Month time Frame 📉 Support & Resistance Levels
Support Levels:
S3: ₹369.23
S2: ₹374.15
S1: ₹376.45
Pivot: ₹378.85
R1: ₹383.00
R2: ₹385.40
R3: ₹389.90
Resistance Levels:
R1: ₹377.65
R2: ₹384.90
R3: ₹391.55
📈 Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 48.79 – Indicates a neutral momentum.
MACD: -0.703 – Suggests mild bullish momentum.
Moving Averages:
5-day EMA: ₹374.76
15-day EMA: ₹374.89
50-day EMA: ₹378.40
100-day EMA: ₹388.38
200-day EMA: ₹406.67
The stock is trading below its short-term moving averages, indicating a bearish trend in the short term.
IRCON 1 Week Time Frame 📉 1-Week Performance
Current Price: ₹170.23
Weekly Change: Approximately -1.33%
Recent High: ₹175.30 on October 16
Recent Low: ₹167.30 on October 21
📊 Technical Indicators (Weekly)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 57.79 — Neutral
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): 0.04 — Slightly Bearish
Commodity Channel Index (CCI): -283.04 — Bearish
Average Directional Index (ADX): 25.32 — Indicates a weak trend
Ultimate Oscillator: 63.31 — Neutral
SBI 1 Day Time Frame 📊 Daily Technical Levels for SBI
Pivot Point (Central Pivot): ₹904.07
Immediate Support Levels: ₹871.88 (S4), ₹881.47 (S3), ₹894.48 (S2), ₹904.07 (S1)
Immediate Resistance Levels: ₹917.08 (R1), ₹926.67 (R2), ₹939.68 (R3), ₹904.07 (R4)
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: ₹895.43 (23.6%), ₹904.07 (50%), ₹912.70 (61.8%)
Camarilla Pivot Levels: ₹905.43 (C1), ₹904.07 (C2), ₹903.36 (C3), ₹901.28 (C4)
These levels are calculated based on the previous day's price action and are widely used by traders to identify potential support and resistance zones.
IREDA 1 Week Time Frame 📈 1-Week Performance Snapshot
Current Price: ₹153.20
1-Week Change: Approximately +0.07%
1-Month Change: Approximately -1.92%
3-Month Change: Approximately -5.12%
1-Year Change: Approximately -30.65%
📊 Recent Trading Activity
October 20, 2025: Opened at ₹151.54, reached a high of ₹154.98, and closed at ₹153.42.
October 17, 2025: Opened at ₹153.00, reached a high of ₹153.38, and closed at ₹151.05.
October 15, 2025: Closed at ₹153.29 after reporting a net profit of ₹549.33 crore for Q2 FY26.
🔍 Technical Indicators
52-Week Range: ₹137.01 – ₹234.29
Market Capitalization: Approximately ₹43,079.56 crore
P/E Ratio: Approximately 23.49
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Approximately 5.41
Dividend Yield: 0.00%
RELIANCE📊 Monthly Technical Levels (October 2025)
Based on standard pivot point calculations, the key support and resistance levels for Reliance Industries Ltd on a 1-month timeframe are:
Pivot Point: ₹1,375.53 (neutral zone)
Resistance Levels:
R1: ₹1,410.47
R2: ₹1,456.93
R3: ₹1,491.87
Support Levels:
S1: ₹1,329.07
S2: ₹1,294.13
S3: ₹1,247.67
These levels are derived from standard pivot point calculations, which are commonly used to identify potential support and resistance zones
Can Fin Homes: Fifth Wave Ignites with Volume BoostAfter completing the third wave advance up to ₹817 and a corrective Wave (4) near ₹708, Can Fin Homes has broken past the prior swing high with a clean volume expansion.
Wave Structure
Impulse sequence from ₹615 (Wave 2) to ₹817 (Wave 3), followed by a deep yet proportional Wave 4.
The current move looks like Wave (5) unfolding with minor waves 1-2-3 already visible.
Price has cleared the swing barrier at ₹826 — watch for a healthy retest near ₹826–₹830 before Wave 4 of (5) and a final push higher.
Momentum Check
The volume spike adds conviction to the breakout, signaling genuine demand rather than a one-day pop.
Targets
Fibonacci projection 1.618 ≈ ₹932 marks the next logical resistance zone.
Invalidation
A sustained drop back below ₹817 would question the breakout and delay the fifth-wave progression.
Strategy
Stay bullish, but don’t chase — let price retest the breakout zone before fresh entries.
Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.






















