Wave Analysis
GRASIM - UP for a 10% correction from 2500 levels?
CMP - 2508
TF: daily
5 wave impulse from June'22 lows (1271) has ended at 2877.75. The Zone for the 5th wave termination was between 2731 to 2923
Internal counts are highlighted/mentioned in the chart for easy understanding.
Upon completion of the 5 wave impulse, price came down in single leg about 380 points. We can consider this as wave A and then a corrective rise to 2833 for wave B and thereby making a Double TOP. Price is now trading in the C wave and could potentially head towards 2200-2100 levels in the coming sessions.
This fall could very well be a 5 wave structure too.. but for now, I have labelled it as 3 wave down-move only.
Break of the 2-4 trendline (rising trendline from wave 2 low of 1521 and wave 4 low of 2171) would confirm trend reversal
For now. the AVWAP from the B wave top at 2645 will act as the RESISTANCE
- Price has broken the swing low of 2505 and consolidating at the breakout zone. Needless to say, the first dip to this level was bought in to already.. the current consolidation could very well signify a potential breakdown.
- the 2490-2510 range is also happens to be the 200 DEMA.. Price is consolidating here instead of bouncing up strongly.
- Price on Daily TF is trading well below the Cloud, Base and Conversion lines..
- The next potential SUPPORTS are 2171 June'4th Low, and 2210 (AVWAP from the lows)
- Since this is a retracement of the entire impulse from 1271 to 2877, the 50% fib level is placed at 2075
- In harmonic pattern, the minimum expected target is around 2250
- Assuming that this is a 3 wave swing, I have considered alternate Shark pattern in Harmonics.. if it goes past the X leg at 2182, then Cypher pattern will come in to play (target would be 1900 to 1700).. to be reviewed how it acts at 2000-2200 levels first.
I am not a SEBI registered Analyst. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions.
Swing Long: $PEPEPepe (PEPE) Long Trade Idea
Here’s a detailed trade plan for PEPE with the following parameters:
Entry Price: $0.0197
Target Price: $0.028 (Take Profit)
Stop-Loss Price: $0.016
Reasoning:
Reasoning:
Pepe (PEPE) appears to have completed a 3-wave corrective structure, a classic pattern in Elliott Wave Theory indicating the conclusion of a correction phase. The price has likely reset momentum, shaking out weaker hands and establishing a strong foundation for the next bullish impulse.
Long your longs strongly
Last leg of correction in BNFBank Nifty CMP 50600
Elliott- This is a zig zag corrective pattern. Here both the A and C leg has 5 waves. Yesterday it completed the iv wave of C. The vth wave down should come down to 49230 as the minimum tgt. If this is broken then the 48340 is where it will bottom. Good news is this is a bullish corrective pattern.
Is this stock potential? How can we trade? HDFC AMC All of the major index and stocks are trading in bearish structure. Market is potentially discounted and we can look for some buy opportunities.
Looking at HDFC AMC stocks, it is still trading in Bullish structure. For any buy setup we would wait for a Change of structure on lower timeframe , mostly on 15 mins.
Look for MSs on 15min and then we can target the daily recent high as future targets.
Trade safe. This is just for educational purposes.
Gold-> Buyer Back Yet?After suffering significant losses last week, gold has regained its recovery momentum and is trading positively above $2,600 on Monday. The fundamental backdrop supports this recovery. Key resistance levels at $2,518 and $2,628 now divide the market into two distinct zones.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting moves from several Fed officials this week to gain further insights into the U.S. interest rate trajectory.
The most likely scenario at the moment is a slight recovery in gold prices following the recent steep sell-off, with expectations for gold to climb higher after several reversals in the USD.
In the medium term, bulls need to reassess U.S. policy planning in December, as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in January. This has not been fully priced into the market, so any adjustments could pose challenges for gold.
Technically, since the market opened, prices have climbed considerably, increasing the likelihood of resistance capping further upward movement. A false breakout at $2,589 and subsequent consolidation below this zone would strengthen selling pressure. However, there is potential for a retest of $2,618 (Order Block).
Similarly, a failed breakout could trigger selling momentum. But if the fundamentals align strongly in favor of gold, the market may have a chance to shift the local trend from the $2,618 zone.
GBPUSDFX:GBPUSD Back to the liquidity test above after the free fall. The pair lacks bullish conviction amid a stable US dollar and as investors choose to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearing before placing strong bets.
A clear bearish wave is forming on the larger timeframe, on the smaller timeframe the downtrend is formed based on negative fundamentals, which only strengthened after Trump's victory. Therefore, any strong resistance can easily hold the market.
On H4, it is trying to break out of the main range, breaking the main support level. A consolidation is forming inside the channel, if sellers hold the 1.269 - 1.277 zone, we can expect a decline towards the areas of interest in the medium term.
Resistance: 1.282 - 1.277 and 1.269
Support: 1.259 - 1.247 and 1.231
The focus is on the resistance level mentioned above, as the further struggle and movement of the market depends on this important zone at this point. The bearish structure will be broken when the local high at 1.282 i.e. (0.5 fib) is broken and the price consolidates above this zone.
Sell the rally Bajaj Finserv CMP 1596
Elliott- zig zag is the only corrective pattern that has 5 waves in its first leg of correction. The B wave can go all the way to 1890 which is some 20% from here. Again an opportunity for traders.
A rally to exitBajaj Auto CMP 9564
Elliott- this is yet another stock that has five waves in its first leg of correction. Hence this is the A wave down . the B wave rally can take it to 11900 which is some 25% from the CMP. So yet another stock showing that this correction is still not done. Definitely an opportunity for traders.
the trend is still not strongAu Bank CMP 592
Elliott- This is a complex corrective pattern. The current fall is wave A . This three wave rally can go all the way to 730. RSI has halted in the bull zone which means this rally has the potential to go to 730. Keep an eye as the fall will be fast and furious once the wave B is done.
NIFTY RANGE AT MAKE OR BREAK LEVELMarket Context and Current Position:
The market appears to be completing the Elliott Wave (5), indicating a potential cycle conclusion.
The recent price action shows bearish divergence in the RSI indicator, which signals momentum loss and a higher likelihood of a reversal or correction phase.
The current level aligns closely with a Fibonacci retracement zone (38.2%), a historically significant support level.
Potential Scenarios:
Reversal Scenario:
If the market respects the Fibonacci 38.2% level, a rebound can be expected.
The Elliott corrective wave (likely ABC) could transition into a new bullish impulsive wave structure, contingent upon strong buying pressure.
Continuation of Correction:
A failure to hold at the 38.2% retracement level could lead to a deeper correction toward the 50% retracement level, coinciding with a critical long-term trendline from the March 2020 low.
This would represent a structural retest of the broader bullish trend initiated post-COVID crash.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Levels:
The immediate resistance lies around the peak of the recent wave (near the 23,500–24,000 zone).
Any upward breakout should be monitored for a potential extension of the wave 5 structure.
Support Levels:
The 38.2% retracement level (approximately 23,000) and the trendline support.
The 50% retracement level (~21,500) as the next crucial fallback if the 38.2% level is breached.
Bank Nifty possible moves for next 1 monthBank Nifty has been moving in a channel since Covid time, it has formed a rising wedge pattern where the upper band starts at Covid time swing high and lower band starts at Covid time low.
I can not switch to monthly timeframe to show the rising wedge pattern on the chart else won't be able to show the possible moves within a month, but the sky blues lines are upper and lower lines of that rising wedge pattern. Here is the link of another post I made to show this wedge pattern on weekly chart:-
As of now bank nifty is in between and it is most likely forming ABC correction wave shown in blue color wave.
It has formed wave A already after making new LTH where it touched the upper line of pattern and now seems to be making the wave B to retrace back few points on upper side (wave drawn in green) and then it need to form wave C (wave in red color) which can possibly go till the lower line of the wedge pattern as drawn on the chart.
As bank nifty has so far respected this wedge pattern lines beautifully since Covid time means 2020 i.e. 4+ years so it is highly likely that it will get support around 49300-49500 if it reaches there following the pattern drawn. This is also 0.618 fib retracement taking 04 June 2024 low (46077) and LTH of (54467). From there it can start a new up move if gets support.
** I have predicted a possible downside move in Nifty 50 as well and for that to happen bank nifty shall fall too, here is the link for that post:-
** This is not a trade advise, just applying chart patterns, wave theory together to predict the possible moves and please do your own analysis before taking any trade.
** If it breaks below 49000 level then Bank nifty will lead to much bigger corrections but for now I am not predicting that to happen.
Thanks for taking a look and if you like or find the analysis relevant please like and share.
Also comment to provide your inputs which probably I have missed. Thanks!
Nifty seems forming H&S, Target upto 23200 if breaks below 24688I am reposting this analysis to support my previous post where nifty is possibly forming H&S pattern and can give breakout on downside, here is the link:-
Now I have added Fib retracement taking 04th Low (23179) and recent LTH (26277), with 0.618 Fib retracement the downside target comes (23195) which is inline with H&S pattern breakout target.
Also I have added waves to better visualize the moves. The wave in blue is the main correction wave which must form ABC pattern, and we have completed wave A and wave B (smaller wave in green) seems in formation which might go around ~25480 fib level.
Then the wave C (wave 12345 in red) is the one which can give the expected fall.
The confirmation will come when nifty will break the neckline and then will do a retracement towards it as shown by wave in 2 in red.
I have created a post for bank nifty where it compliments the moves with Nifty 50 but bank nifty might not give that much fall if gets support around 49000-49500. That means nifty might also get support at 24000-24200 or else other sectors need to show more correction than banks. Here is the post for the same:-
Thanks for taking a look and if you like or find the analysis relevant please like and share.
Also comment to provide your inputs which probably I have missed. Thanks!
** This is not a trade advise, just applying chart patterns, wave theory together to predict the possible moves and please do your own analysis before taking any trade.
Xauusd Tradesetup SMC 19-11-24 #goldsetup #thezenmasterforexPlay between 2627 and 2612,
Sell level 1 - 2621
Sell level 2 - 2627
Buy level 1 - 2618
Buy level 2 - 2612
only before NY
Use SL
Cheers!!
False breakdown or beginning of New rally? #RelianceFalse breakout patterns can sometimes signal the beginning of a new trend, and the end of the current one.
like as the chart of reliance the trend breakout at wave 2 suggesting negative bias in the stock signaling trend reversal. However the phycological theory of EWT suggest the possibility of false breakout and beginning of 3rd motive wave.
How should one trade the fake breakouts.
Refer the Strength index and look if the Oscillators suggest neutral or an oversold zone for reversal
Coming on to Reliance: It is important Reliance to sustain above 1371 for the beginning of W3 a rally towards levels of 1800
GODREJ agrovet On Weekly Flag and pole formation.
Taking support On previous ATH.
Waiting for the breakout
#Nifty directions and levels for November 19th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for November 19th.
Market Overview:
There are no significant changes happening. The global market is showing moderately bearish sentiment (based on Dow Jones only), and our local market is also exhibiting a bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as the Nifty is showing a positive increase of 50 points.
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty moved in a consolidation pattern. Structurally, we can expect a range-bound market today as well, with a bearish bias. This means that until the minor range is broken, the market will move within this range. If it breaks out, we can expect the next movement based on that. Let’s explain this with the charts.
Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have the same structural sentiment.
Nifty Current View:
The current view suggests that if the market declines initially, then 23,396 will act as support. If the market breaks this level, the correction will continue to a minimum of 23,322. On the other hand, if it doesn’t break this level (23,396), then it could consolidate within the channel. This is our first variation.
Alternate View:
The alternate variation suggests that if the market sustains the gap-up, then 23,583 will act as resistance. If the market consolidates or breaks this level, then the pullback will continue to the next resistance Fibonacci level of 38%. Conversely, if it doesn’t break or rejects this level, we can expect consolidation leading to a correction.
#Banknifty directions and levels for November 19th.Bank Nifty Current View:
The structure is similar to the Nifty sentiment. The current view suggests that if the market declines initially, then 50,045 will act as support. If the market breaks this level, the correction will continue to a minimum of 49,745. On the other hand, if it doesn’t break this level (50,045), then it could consolidate between the level of 50,045 and the 38% upside.
Alternate View:
The alternate variation suggests that if the market sustains the gap-up, then the 38% level will act as resistance. If the market consolidates or breaks this level, then the pullback will continue to the next resistance Fibonacci level of 50%. Conversely, if it doesn’t break or rejects this level, we can expect consolidation leading to a correction.
SUNPHARMA - BREAKOUT RETEST or END of 5th?SUNPHARMA - CMP 1747
It appears that a 5 wave impulse from Covid lows (312) has ended at 1960
Primary and internal counts are marked in the chart
If it is too early to predict/expect a larger retracement of the entire move, lets take one step at a time and look for the price action from May'23 lows.. The 5 wave impulse from 922 to 1960. Even here, the 5 waves are complete and the price is falling/retracing.
Chart is attached here for reference
If we expect a minimum of 50% retracement of this 5 wave impulse, then we are looking at 1440 levels
Worst case, if you look at breakout retest (for those with bullish bias), then a dip down to 1640 cant be ruled out
Price is trading below the cloud and Super trend on Daily TF
Price is trading below all key EMAs.. and 200 EMA is next, placed at 1650 levels.
Definitely not a place to go long..
Daily close above 1800 would be the invalidation level
I am not a SEBI registered Analyst. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions.
NIFTY50: INSTITUTIONAL LEVELS FOR 19/11/2024Overview
This trading system combines simplicity with powerful insights for accurate entries and exits. It is structured for active traders using the 5-minute timeframe who want to make clear, confident trading decisions in fast-moving markets.
Key Strategy Guidelines
Retest Entries : Aim to enter trades on retests rather than breakouts, offering better positioning.
Multiple Confirmations : Use more than one confirmation to validate each trade, helping avoid impulsive decisions.
ATM Options Focus : Stick to at-the-money (ATM) options or above for optimal liquidity and manageable risk.
System Explanation
This setup leverages volume, historical price action, and price ranges to pinpoint high-probability entry and exit points. This methodology is designed to reduce guesswork, allowing traders to manage trades with a consistent approach.
How It Works: Entry/Exit Signals
Blue Line : Signals potential long entry.
Red Line : Indicates potential short entry.
Tip : Align these signals with additional confirmations from your trading strategy for optimal performance.
Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels
Stop Loss:
Long Trades : Set your stop loss at the nearest red line below the entry point, or adjust based on whether the 5-minute candle crosses the red line.
Short Trades : Use the blue line above as the stop loss.
Take Profit:
Long Entries :Target the next red line above or exit if other indicators suggest a prudent exit.
Short Entries :Target the next blue line below following similar guidelines.
Timeframe Recommendation
This system is specifically optimized for the 5-minute timeframe, making it suitable for those trading shorter intervals with precision.
Risk Disclaimer
Trading involves high risk, and rapid price changes can lead to unexpected losses. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose, and carefully assess your financial situation and risk tolerance.
Join the Community Discussion
Engage with other traders to discuss strategies, share insights, and enhance your understanding of the markets. Let’s grow together as a community of traders.
Original Content
This trading system is the product of my own expertise and rigorous testing. It’s a unique approach developed through real market experience to offer a clear edge in trading.
BANKNIFTY: INSTITUTIONAL LEVELS FOR 19/11/2024Overview
This trading system combines simplicity with powerful insights for accurate entries and exits. It is structured for active traders using the 5-minute timeframe who want to make clear, confident trading decisions in fast-moving markets.
Key Strategy Guidelines
Retest Entries : Aim to enter trades on retests rather than breakouts, offering better positioning.
Multiple Confirmations : Use more than one confirmation to validate each trade, helping avoid impulsive decisions.
ATM Options Focus : Stick to at-the-money (ATM) options or above for optimal liquidity and manageable risk.
System Explanation
This setup leverages volume, historical price action, and price ranges to pinpoint high-probability entry and exit points. This methodology is designed to reduce guesswork, allowing traders to manage trades with a consistent approach.
How It Works: Entry/Exit Signals
Blue Line : Signals potential long entry.
Red Line : Indicates potential short entry.
Tip : Align these signals with additional confirmations from your trading strategy for optimal performance.
Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels
Stop Loss:
Long Trades : Set your stop loss at the nearest red line below the entry point, or adjust based on whether the 5-minute candle crosses the red line.
Short Trades : Use the blue line above as the stop loss.
Take Profit:
Long Entries :Target the next red line above or exit if other indicators suggest a prudent exit.
Short Entries :Target the next blue line below following similar guidelines.
Timeframe Recommendation
This system is specifically optimized for the 5-minute timeframe, making it suitable for those trading shorter intervals with precision.
Risk Disclaimer
Trading involves high risk, and rapid price changes can lead to unexpected losses. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose, and carefully assess your financial situation and risk tolerance.
Join the Community Discussion
Engage with other traders to discuss strategies, share insights, and enhance your understanding of the markets. Let’s grow together as a community of traders.
Original Content
This trading system is the product of my own expertise and rigorous testing. It’s a unique approach developed through real market experience to offer a clear edge in trading.
BANK NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 19/11/2024BUY ABOVE - 50440
SL - 50140
TARGETS - 50640,50900,51060
SELL BELOW - 50140
SL - 50440
TARGETS - 49950,49700,49500
NO TRADE ZONE - 50140 to 50440
Previous Day High - 50440
Previous Day Low - 50140
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
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HAPPY TRADING 👍
