XAUUSD — Decline reaction not yet confirming reversal XAUUSD — Decline reaction not yet confirming reversal | Prioritise buying on Fibonacci retracement 🟡
Summary: The rapid decline at the start of the session did not break the upward structure. Gold continues to move within the Fibonacci expansion wave; prioritise buy-the-dip at confluence zones. Sell orders are only for short-term scalping when there's a clear rejection signal.
📊 Technical Analysis (H1)
Structure & Price Behaviour
Price is increasing in steps, the recent correction hasn't violated key lows, leaning towards a trend pullback.
The chart shows multiple Fib expansion levels (0.618/0.786/1.618/2.618); the 4120–4135 zone is the short-term trading hub, above it are clusters 4160–4188–4179 and further 4200–4220.
Volume has slightly decreased compared to previous sessions → likely to see pullbacks at support before continuing.
Price Zones to Watch
Resistance: 4160–4162, 4179, 4200.
Support: 4116–4118, 4102, 4073, 4062–4065, 4024.
Significance: 4062–4065 coincides with Fib + old resistance (good confluence for buying); 4116–4118 is the nearest retest; 4160–4162 is a sell retest only for scalping.
If 4116–4118 holds and H1 closes above 4130, the probability of retesting 4155/4188 increases.
If 4062–4065 breaks and stays below 4057, the adjustment range may extend to 4024.
📰 Fundamental Factors (Highlights)
Central banks continue to buy gold, supporting fundamental demand.
On 14/10, gold led the commodity basket this year; expectations of Fed rate cuts in upcoming sessions are the main driver for holding gold.
Gold ETF: attracted an additional ~2 billion USD (~14 tonnes) last week; YTD cumulative ~68 billion USD, annual demand ~645 tonnes (second only to the 2020 record).
⇒ The cash flow picture supports a medium-term uptrend, although short-term fluctuations remain around Fib/resistance levels.
🎯 Trading Plan (European–American session) — if–then
Scenario 1 — BUY near retest (priority)
Entry: 4116–4118
SL: 4110
TP: 4134 → 4155 → 4188 → 4222
Condition: if price retests 4116–4118 and a confirmation candle/rebound momentum appears on H1.
Scenario 2 — BUY at Fib + old resistance (backup)
Entry: 4062–4065
SL: 4057
TP: 4082 → 4098 → 4115 → 4135
Condition: only activate when there's a pullback at 4062–4065; better if reclaiming 4073/4102 afterwards.
Scenario 3 — SELL reaction (scalping)
Entry: 4160–4162
SL: 4168
TP: 4134 → 4118 → 4100 → 4078
Note: only sell when there's a clear rejection signal (long wick/distribution volume); do not chase price.
Invalidation & Risk Management
Loss of 4057 → reduce buy priority, wait for new signals at 4024.
Risk ≤1–2%/order; adhere to SL first, position later. 🛡️
Summary
Bias: Upward; current decline reaction not confirming reversal.
Strategy: Prioritise buy at 4116–4118 and 4062–4065; sell only for scalping at 4160–4162 when signalled.
Levels to watch: 4102 – 4073 – 4024 – 4179 – 4200.
Note: This article is for reference purposes only, not investment advice.
