Wave Analysis
Nifty50 Weekly Analysis - 18th Aug 2025Weekly Analysis: #Nifty50
Date: 18th Aug 2025
Firstly huge apologies.. I understand that I'm sharing the weekly report after 2 months.. At this point it feels more like a quarterly analysis rather than a weekly one.
As per that last weekly analysis published on 9th June 2025 #Nifty was at 25,000 and now it's trading at 24, 631.. basically there was nothing much happening or going at that time going to happen. Hence, I stayed quiet.. and it has panned out in the same way. If you remember reading the analysis from Nov 2024 to June 2025, I had mentioned that I will only be taking fresh entry, once Nifty closes above 25,800 and sustains due to the gap. And recently Nifty has been rejected from the same zone. Also, in my last post published on 23rd July there were indications that market may correct and it has indeed.
24,400 is strong support and a break-down below this with a red confirmation candle will take us further down. Nifty was moving in an upward channel from March 2023 and is now being rejected from the bottom of this upward channel (as we can see in the chart). The 3 gaps on the downside have yet to be filled and they will fill in the following months. We may experience a small bullish move toward 25000-25200 in the short-term, but this will only be a bulltrap. 20,200 to 19,500 is a support I still see being tested before we start the next bull-run. Remember! this is on-going Wave 4 (since Covid-Crash) and in the last Wave, which is Wave 5 people have the most optimism view of the market. But, this is the phase where all big players cash-out at high valuations selling everything to retail-traders. In fact retails traders are already giving huge exits to FIIs through their SIPs (DII buying).
I'm still holding cash and my entry in new stocks will either be above 25,800 levels or around 20,000 levels.. May start adding below 21,000. But, will keep y'all posted.
Chart - Remains the same, will update new information once mentioned levels are achieved on either side.
Mid/Long term view - More pain expected in next few moths.
#USDINR #DXY - #DollarIndex is loosing momentum but so is #Rupee.. not at all good for the overall economy and the markets. USDINR is forming a cup and handle, the target for which is coming to 92/USD.. When this happens brace yourself and sit tight, it will seem that everything is coming to an end but it wont.. this is where the market will most likely bottom out.
#Gold - If you remember reading analysis for Gold.. 3,300-3,400 was my exit target. Yes, it did go till 3,511. But mostly has been in the exit range.. Again this seems like distribution to me.
#CrudeOil #BrentCrude - Extremely weak now.. As I had mentioned in one of my older posts, that if Oil ETF was available I would have purchased it. And during the #iranisraelwar it would have made us good money. But sadly such an instrument is not available for
us.
Do Like, Comment, Bookmark and follow. This helps with platform algorithm to push the content to more people!
UNO Minda – Potential Wave V Extension in Progress - BuyUNO Minda completed its larger degree Wave V on 8 Jul 2024, followed by a correction in the form of a flat, which ended on 7 Apr 2025.
Since then, the stock has been in a fresh impulsive sequence:
Wave (i) completed on 21 Apr.
Wave (ii) unfolded as a simple flat, ending on 2 May.
Wave (iii) matched the length of Wave (i) (equality).
Wave (iv) again unfolded as a simple flat.
With Wave (i) and (iii) being equal in length, there is a high probability of a Wave (v) extension.
Currently, Wave (v) is unfolding:
Sub-wave (1) ended on 11 Jun.
A larger flat correction followed, completed on 1 Aug 2025.
Strong results for Q1’26, combined with increasing volumes and strong candles, confirm the possibility of a Wave V extension.
ub-wave (3) of (v) is now in progress.
Trading View
Buy at current levels (in which case maintain a stop loss of 1055) or buy on next correction.
Wave V extensions can stretch up to maximum of 1.618 × of Wave 0–iii.
Paer 4 Learn Institutional Trading Options Trading Strategies
Basic Strategies
Long Call → Buy call, bullish.
Long Put → Buy put, bearish.
Covered Call → Own stock + sell call for income.
Protective Put → Own stock + buy put for protection.
Intermediate Strategies
Straddle: Buy Call + Put at same strike (bet on volatility).
Strangle: Buy Call (higher strike) + Put (lower strike).
Bull Call Spread: Buy low strike call + sell higher strike call.
Bear Put Spread: Buy put + sell lower strike put.
Advanced Strategies
Iron Condor: Range-bound strategy selling OTM call + put spreads.
Butterfly Spread: Profit from low volatility near strike.
Ratio Spreads: Adjust risk/reward with multiple options.
Margin Requirements & Leverage
Option buyers: Pay only premium (small capital).
Option sellers (writers): Need large margin (higher risk).
NSE SPAN + Exposure margin system determines requirements.
For example, selling 1 lot of Bank Nifty option may require ₹1.5–2 lakh margin depending on volatility.
Part 2 Ride The Big MovesOption Premium & Pricing (The Greeks Simplified)
Premium depends on:
Intrinsic Value = difference between spot & strike.
Time Value = extra value based on time to expiry & volatility.
The Greeks explain sensitivity of option price:
Delta: Sensitivity to underlying price.
Theta: Time decay (options lose value as expiry nears).
Vega: Sensitivity to volatility.
Gamma: Rate of change of Delta.
For example, Indian traders often notice how Bank Nifty weekly options lose value rapidly on expiry day (Theta decay)—which is why option sellers make money on “expiry day trading.”
Types of Options in India
Index Options – Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, FinNifty (most liquid).
Stock Options – Individual companies like Reliance, TCS, HDFC Bank.
Currency Options – USD/INR, EUR/INR (for forex hedging).
Part 2 Master Candle PatternKey Terms in Options Trading
Strike Price: The price at which you can buy/sell the underlying.
Premium: The cost paid to buy the option.
Expiry Date: Last day the option is valid (weekly/monthly in India).
Lot Size: Minimum tradable quantity (e.g., Nifty options = 25 units per lot).
ITM (In the Money): Option has intrinsic value.
ATM (At the Money): Strike price = underlying price.
OTM (Out of the Money): Option has no intrinsic value.
How Options Work (Indian Example)
Let’s take an example with Nifty 50 trading at ₹22,000:
Suppose you buy a Nifty 22,200 Call Option for a premium of ₹100 (lot size = 25).
Total cost = 100 × 25 = ₹2,500.
Case 1: Nifty goes up to 22,400
Intrinsic value = 22,400 – 22,200 = ₹200
Profit per lot = (200 – 100) × 25 = ₹2,500
Case 2: Nifty stays at 22,000 or falls
Option expires worthless.
Loss = Premium paid = ₹2,500
This asymmetry—limited risk, unlimited reward—is what attracts many retail traders to options.
Part 1 Master Candle PatternIntroduction to Options Trading
Options trading has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the Indian financial market. Once considered a playground only for institutions and advanced traders, options are now widely accessible to retail investors thanks to online trading platforms, mobile apps, and reduced brokerage costs.
In India, the NSE (National Stock Exchange) is the world’s largest derivatives exchange in terms of contracts traded, with Bank Nifty and Nifty 50 options leading the charge. For retail traders, options present opportunities for hedging, speculation, and income generation, making them versatile instruments.
But options are also complex. Unlike stocks, where you directly own a piece of a company, options are derivative contracts—their value depends on the price of an underlying asset. This makes them both powerful and risky if not understood properly.
What are Options?
An option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) before or on a specific date (expiry).
Call Option → Right to buy an asset at a strike price.
Put Option → Right to sell an asset at a strike price.
Unlike futures contracts, option buyers are not obligated to execute the trade. They can choose to let the option expire worthless if the trade doesn’t go their way.
Bajaj Holdings – End of Wave V: Time to Exit?
Timeframe: Monthly Chart
Bajaj Holdings appears to have completed a larger-degree Wave V, forming a 5th wave extension.
Under Elliott Wave Principle, when Wave 5 is the longest, it typically extends 1.618 times the distance from Wave 1’s start to Wave 3’s end.
In this case, Wave 5 has indeed traveled 1.618x of that measure, while Wave 3 extended 1.414x of Wave 1.
Further internal wave counts align well with this structure, strengthening the case for a completed cycle.
Conclusion:
The larger 5-wave sequence looks complete. Investors and traders may consider exiting positions at this stage.
Nifty & BankNifty: Elliott Wave Roadmap - Aug / Sep 2025We saw an ending diagonal (wedge) in BankNifty at 47702 lows back in March 2025. The idea was published, can 47702 be the bottom? Indeed, BankNifty unfolded in impulsive fashion, flying up to 57669 highs. Wow.
Now the question: do we see a similar structure in Nifty? An ending diagonal forming in the corrections, building a base near 24325–24350? Or will it struggle?
All that in this video. Market Whispers! Can you hear them?
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Exciting video idea from WaveTalks.
Analysis by Abhishek
Currency Trading in India1. Introduction to Currency Trading in India
Currency trading, also known as forex (foreign exchange) trading, is the process of buying and selling currencies with the objective of making profits from changes in exchange rates. Globally, forex is the largest financial market, with daily turnover exceeding $7 trillion (as per BIS data 2022). While India participates in this market, the framework here is unique, regulated, and more restricted compared to global forex trading hubs.
In India, currency trading has gained popularity over the last 15 years. Earlier, it was limited to importers, exporters, and banks managing foreign exchange risk. But today, thanks to currency derivatives trading on Indian exchanges, retail traders and investors can also participate in this market in a regulated and transparent manner.
Currency trading in India is not just speculation — it is also a powerful tool for hedging against currency risk, especially important for companies dealing with international transactions. With the growth of globalization, IT exports, tourism, e-commerce, and cross-border investments, currency trading has become a critical part of India’s financial markets.
2. Regulatory Framework for Currency Trading in India
Unlike global forex markets where traders can trade almost any currency pair, India has a strict regulatory environment. This is mainly because the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) want to avoid excessive speculation and protect the Indian Rupee (INR) from volatility.
Key Regulators
Reserve Bank of India (RBI):
Oversees currency exchange rules.
Manages foreign exchange reserves.
Ensures stability of the Indian Rupee.
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI):
Regulates exchanges where currency derivatives are traded.
Ensures fair practices, transparency, and investor protection.
Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), 1999:
Governs all forex-related activities in India.
Restricts unregulated forex trading.
Ensures that all forex transactions are legal and monitored.
Legal vs. Illegal Forex Trading
Legal: Trading in currency derivatives on recognized exchanges (NSE, BSE, MSE) and through authorized brokers.
Illegal: Using online/offshore forex platforms that offer pairs beyond INR-based pairs (like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.) is not allowed for Indian residents.
This distinction is very important: many global forex brokers advertise heavily, but Indian traders must stick to RBI-SEBI regulated avenues.
3. Currency Pairs Allowed for Trading in India
In India, only certain currency pairs are permitted:
INR-based pairs (Most Popular)
USD/INR
EUR/INR
GBP/INR
JPY/INR
Cross-currency pairs (Introduced in 2015)
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
This gives traders some exposure to global majors, but the options are still narrower than the global forex market where 100+ pairs are available.
4. Currency Derivatives in India
Retail currency trading in India happens through currency derivatives, not spot forex.
Types of Contracts Available
Currency Futures
Standardized contracts to buy/sell a currency pair at a future date.
Example: Buying USD/INR futures at 84.20 if you expect the rupee to weaken.
Currency Options
Contracts that give the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell a currency pair at a set price.
Example: Buying a call option on USD/INR if you expect USD to rise against INR.
Lot Size
Standard lot size: USD 1,000, EUR 1,000, GBP 1,000, JPY 100,000.
This makes contracts accessible to retail traders (lower margin requirement compared to global forex).
5. Currency Trading Platforms in India
Currency trading is conducted on recognized exchanges:
National Stock Exchange (NSE)
Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)
Metropolitan Stock Exchange (MSE)
Brokers provide trading terminals like Zerodha Kite, Upstox Pro, Angel One, ICICI Direct, HDFC Securities, Kotak Securities, etc. Orders placed by retail traders flow to the exchange, ensuring transparency.
6. Participants in Indian Currency Market
The Indian currency market has diverse participants:
Importers & Exporters – Hedge against foreign exchange fluctuations.
Banks & Financial Institutions – Manage forex exposure and provide liquidity.
Corporate Houses – Hedge overseas borrowings and investments.
Retail Traders & Investors – Speculate on currency price movements.
RBI – Intervenes in the market to stabilize the rupee.
This mix ensures a healthy balance of hedging, speculation, and regulation.
7. Why Do People Trade Currencies in India?
Hedging: Businesses protect themselves against adverse currency movements.
Speculation: Traders aim to profit from short-term price fluctuations.
Arbitrage: Taking advantage of price differences in different markets.
Diversification: Provides exposure beyond equities and commodities.
Example:
If an IT company receives payments in USD, but expects INR to appreciate, it may hedge using USD/INR futures to protect its revenue.
8. Trading Hours and Settlement
Trading Hours: 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM (Monday to Friday).
Settlement: Currency futures and options are cash-settled in INR (no actual delivery of foreign currency).
This makes it simple for retail traders, as they don’t need actual forex accounts abroad.
9. Key Factors Affecting Currency Movements in India
Interest Rates – Higher interest rates attract foreign capital → strengthens INR.
Inflation – High inflation weakens currency.
Trade Balance – Deficit puts pressure on INR.
FDI & FPI Flows – Foreign inflows strengthen rupee, outflows weaken it.
Global Cues – USD Index, crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions.
RBI Intervention – Active buying/selling of USD to control volatility.
Example:
If crude oil prices rise sharply, India’s import bill increases, leading to pressure on INR.
10. Advantages of Currency Trading in India
Low margin requirement compared to equities.
High liquidity in USD/INR contracts.
Effective hedging tool for businesses.
Transparent, regulated environment.
Opportunity to diversify portfolio.
11. Risks of Currency Trading
High Volatility: Exchange rates can swing suddenly due to global events.
Leverage Risk: Small margin → higher exposure → bigger losses possible.
Regulatory Limits: Fewer pairs compared to global forex restrict opportunities.
Event Risk: Unexpected RBI decisions, US Fed policy, or geopolitical shocks.
12. Popular Strategies for Currency Trading in India
Trend Following Strategy
Trade in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Example: If USD/INR is making higher highs, go long.
Range Trading Strategy
Identify support and resistance levels.
Buy near support, sell near resistance.
News-Based Trading
Trade during events like RBI policy, Fed announcements, inflation data.
Hedging Strategy
Businesses use futures/options to hedge risk.
Carry Trade (Limited in India)
Borrow in a low-interest currency, invest in a higher-interest one.
Mostly global, but institutions sometimes use it.
13. Myths vs Reality
Myth: Forex trading is banned in India.
Reality: Unregulated offshore forex trading is illegal, but regulated currency derivatives are fully legal.
Myth: Currency trading always requires huge capital.
Reality: With lot size of USD 1,000, small traders can participate.
Myth: RBI fixes currency prices.
Reality: INR is managed, not fixed. RBI intervenes only to reduce volatility.
14. Conclusion
Currency trading in India is a growing and exciting market, but it operates within strict regulatory boundaries. Traders can participate in INR-based and selected cross-currency derivatives on NSE, BSE, and MSE. For businesses, it is a vital tool for hedging. For retail investors, it provides diversification and speculative opportunities with relatively small capital.
However, risks are significant — especially leverage and volatility — and traders must combine fundamental knowledge, technical analysis, and sound risk management to succeed. With globalization and increasing cross-border flows, the importance of India’s currency market will only rise in the coming years.
In short, currency trading in India is not just about speculation, but about managing risks, diversifying portfolios, and understanding the global financial system.
Options Trading in India1. Introduction to Options Trading
Options trading has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the Indian financial market. Once considered a playground only for institutions and advanced traders, options are now widely accessible to retail investors thanks to online trading platforms, mobile apps, and reduced brokerage costs.
In India, the NSE (National Stock Exchange) is the world’s largest derivatives exchange in terms of contracts traded, with Bank Nifty and Nifty 50 options leading the charge. For retail traders, options present opportunities for hedging, speculation, and income generation, making them versatile instruments.
But options are also complex. Unlike stocks, where you directly own a piece of a company, options are derivative contracts—their value depends on the price of an underlying asset. This makes them both powerful and risky if not understood properly.
2. What are Options?
An option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) before or on a specific date (expiry).
Call Option → Right to buy an asset at a strike price.
Put Option → Right to sell an asset at a strike price.
Unlike futures contracts, option buyers are not obligated to execute the trade. They can choose to let the option expire worthless if the trade doesn’t go their way.
3. Key Terms in Options Trading
Strike Price: The price at which you can buy/sell the underlying.
Premium: The cost paid to buy the option.
Expiry Date: Last day the option is valid (weekly/monthly in India).
Lot Size: Minimum tradable quantity (e.g., Nifty options = 25 units per lot).
ITM (In the Money): Option has intrinsic value.
ATM (At the Money): Strike price = underlying price.
OTM (Out of the Money): Option has no intrinsic value.
4. How Options Work (Indian Example)
Let’s take an example with Nifty 50 trading at ₹22,000:
Suppose you buy a Nifty 22,200 Call Option for a premium of ₹100 (lot size = 25).
Total cost = 100 × 25 = ₹2,500.
Case 1: Nifty goes up to 22,400
Intrinsic value = 22,400 – 22,200 = ₹200
Profit per lot = (200 – 100) × 25 = ₹2,500
Case 2: Nifty stays at 22,000 or falls
Option expires worthless.
Loss = Premium paid = ₹2,500
This asymmetry—limited risk, unlimited reward—is what attracts many retail traders to options.
5. Why Trade Options?
Leverage: Trade larger positions with smaller capital.
Hedging: Protect your portfolio against market falls.
Speculation: Bet on market direction with limited risk.
Income Generation: Write (sell) options to earn premium.
6. Options Market in India
Introduced in 2001 by NSE with index options.
Stock options followed in 2002.
India now has weekly expiries for Nifty, Bank Nifty, and FinNifty.
SEBI & Exchanges regulate margin rules, position limits, and trading practices.
The retail participation in options has exploded post-2020 with apps like Zerodha, Upstox, Angel One, Groww, making it extremely easy to trade.
7. Option Premium & Pricing (The Greeks Simplified)
Premium depends on:
Intrinsic Value = difference between spot & strike.
Time Value = extra value based on time to expiry & volatility.
The Greeks explain sensitivity of option price:
Delta: Sensitivity to underlying price.
Theta: Time decay (options lose value as expiry nears).
Vega: Sensitivity to volatility.
Gamma: Rate of change of Delta.
For example, Indian traders often notice how Bank Nifty weekly options lose value rapidly on expiry day (Theta decay)—which is why option sellers make money on “expiry day trading.”
8. Types of Options in India
Index Options – Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, FinNifty (most liquid).
Stock Options – Individual companies like Reliance, TCS, HDFC Bank.
Currency Options – USD/INR, EUR/INR (for forex hedging).
9. Options Trading Strategies
Basic Strategies
Long Call → Buy call, bullish.
Long Put → Buy put, bearish.
Covered Call → Own stock + sell call for income.
Protective Put → Own stock + buy put for protection.
Intermediate Strategies
Straddle: Buy Call + Put at same strike (bet on volatility).
Strangle: Buy Call (higher strike) + Put (lower strike).
Bull Call Spread: Buy low strike call + sell higher strike call.
Bear Put Spread: Buy put + sell lower strike put.
Advanced Strategies
Iron Condor: Range-bound strategy selling OTM call + put spreads.
Butterfly Spread: Profit from low volatility near strike.
Ratio Spreads: Adjust risk/reward with multiple options.
10. Margin Requirements & Leverage
Option buyers: Pay only premium (small capital).
Option sellers (writers): Need large margin (higher risk).
NSE SPAN + Exposure margin system determines requirements.
For example, selling 1 lot of Bank Nifty option may require ₹1.5–2 lakh margin depending on volatility.
11. Taxation of Options in India
Treated as business income under Income Tax Act.
Classified as non-speculative business income (since traded on exchange).
Profits taxed as per slab rate; audit required if turnover exceeds limits.
12. Risks in Options Trading
Time decay eats premium if direction isn’t quick.
Volatility crush reduces premium post-events (like RBI policy).
Unlimited risk for sellers if market moves sharply.
Liquidity issues in some stock options.
13. Options Trading Psychology
Requires discipline & patience—most beginners lose by overtrading.
Emotions like fear of missing out (FOMO) or greed destroy capital.
Successful option traders often specialize in 1–2 instruments (e.g., Bank Nifty weekly options).
14. Conclusion
Options trading in India has transformed from a niche product for institutions into a mainstream retail trading instrument. The flexibility of calls and puts allows traders to profit in any market—rising, falling, or sideways. However, the high leverage and complexity mean traders must respect risk management, taxation rules, and psychology.
For beginners, the right path is to:
Start with small option buying.
Learn option chain, Greeks, and price behavior.
Slowly graduate to spreads and hedged strategies.
Avoid naked selling until well-capitalized.
With discipline, knowledge, and the right strategies, options can become a powerful tool for wealth creation, hedging, and trading opportunities in India’s growing markets.
Market Structure AnalysisIntroduction
In financial markets, price never moves randomly, even though it may appear chaotic at first glance. Beneath the constant fluctuations lies an organized framework that reflects the collective psychology of traders, investors, and institutions. This underlying framework is what we call Market Structure.
Market structure analysis is the study of how price moves, consolidates, trends, and reverses, and how participants’ decisions are reflected in these patterns. For a trader, understanding market structure is like learning the grammar of a new language—once mastered, it allows you to read the market’s story in real time.
This guide will explore the concept of market structure in detail, covering its building blocks, types, applications in trading, and advanced institutional perspectives.
Chapter 1: What is Market Structure?
At its core, market structure refers to the framework that price follows on a chart. It represents the sequence of higher highs (HH), higher lows (HL), lower highs (LH), and lower lows (LL). These swings reveal whether the market is trending upward, trending downward, or consolidating.
Uptrend: Higher highs + higher lows.
Downtrend: Lower lows + lower highs.
Range-bound: Horizontal highs and lows.
In essence, market structure maps who is in control:
Buyers (bulls) dominate in uptrends.
Sellers (bears) dominate in downtrends.
Neither dominates in consolidations.
This structural perspective is timeless—it applies whether you are looking at a 1-minute chart of Nifty futures or a monthly chart of Reliance Industries.
Chapter 2: The Building Blocks of Market Structure
To truly master market structure, one must recognize its core components:
1. Swing Highs & Swing Lows
A swing high is a peak surrounded by lower highs.
A swing low is a trough surrounded by higher lows.
These form the foundation of trend identification.
2. Break of Structure (BOS)
When price breaks a previous swing high/low, it signals potential trend continuation. Example: if Nifty breaks above its previous high, structure confirms bullish control.
3. Change of Character (ChoCh)
A ChoCh occurs when price shifts from making higher highs to lower lows (or vice versa). It’s the earliest sign of a trend reversal.
4. Liquidity Zones
Market structure is closely tied to liquidity. Stop-loss orders often rest below swing lows or above swing highs. Smart traders and institutions target these zones before resuming the main trend.
5. Order Blocks & Supply/Demand Zones
Order block: A consolidation before a strong move, showing where institutions placed large orders.
Demand zone: Area where buyers step in aggressively.
Supply zone: Area where sellers dominate.
Chapter 3: Phases of Market Structure
Market structure doesn’t remain constant—it evolves through phases:
Accumulation Phase
Price moves sideways after a downtrend.
Smart money quietly accumulates positions.
Seen before major rallies.
Markup Phase
Clear uptrend begins with higher highs and higher lows.
Retail traders join the move late.
Distribution Phase
After a prolonged rally, price consolidates at the top.
Institutions offload positions to late buyers.
Markdown Phase
Downtrend begins with lower highs and lower lows.
Panic selling occurs.
This cycle repeats endlessly across timeframes, forming the backbone of market psychology.
Chapter 4: Trend Analysis with Market Structure
Uptrend Structure
Formation: HH → HL → HH → HL.
Confirmation: Break of previous HH.
Invalidated when: A LL forms.
Downtrend Structure
Formation: LL → LH → LL → LH.
Confirmation: Break of previous LL.
Invalidated when: A HH forms.
Ranging Market
Price oscillates between support & resistance.
Market accumulates liquidity before breakout.
A trader who can correctly identify which phase the market is in gains a strategic edge.
Chapter 5: Institutional Perspective of Market Structure
Retail traders often chase price, while institutions engineer liquidity. To understand real market structure, we must adopt the institutional lens.
Liquidity Hunts: Price spikes above resistance or below support are often “stop hunts” to collect liquidity before reversing.
False Breakouts: Institutions create fake moves to mislead retail traders.
Order Flow: Real structure forms around institutional buying/selling, not random retail trades.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) emphasize that market structure is not just about patterns—it’s about where liquidity is pooled and how it’s manipulated.
Chapter 6: Tools to Analyze Market Structure
Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTFA)
Higher timeframes show dominant structure.
Lower timeframes provide entries.
Example: Daily trend is up, but 5-min chart offers entry pullbacks.
Volume Profile
Market structure becomes more powerful when combined with volume.
High volume at support/resistance confirms institutional activity.
Moving Averages
Help visualize structural direction.
200 EMA for long-term trend, 20 EMA for short-term pullbacks.
Fibonacci Levels
Retracement levels align with swing lows/highs.
Confluence strengthens structural setups.
Chapter 7: Practical Applications of Market Structure
Entry Points
Enter on retest of broken structure (BOS).
Enter near demand zones in uptrend, supply zones in downtrend.
Stop Loss Placement
Below last swing low in uptrend.
Above last swing high in downtrend.
Take Profit Levels
Next structural swing.
Previous high/low as targets.
Scalping, Swing, Position Trading
Scalpers use intraday structure.
Swing traders follow daily/weekly swings.
Investors watch monthly structure.
Chapter 8: Case Study – Market Structure in Nifty & Bank Nifty
Example 1: Nifty forms HH-HL pattern for weeks. When it breaks structure (ChoCh), a reversal begins.
Example 2: Bank Nifty hunts liquidity below a key support, only to rally back up, showing institutional manipulation.
Market structure analysis consistently reveals the hidden story behind price movements.
Chapter 9: Common Mistakes in Market Structure Analysis
Ignoring higher timeframe structure.
Confusing minor pullbacks with full reversals.
Over-trading every swing instead of waiting for confirmation.
Blindly trusting indicators without structure context.
Chapter 10: Advanced Market Structure Concepts
Fractals
Structure repeats across timeframes.
A daily uptrend may contain intraday downtrends.
Wyckoff Theory Integration
Accumulation and distribution patterns align perfectly with structural shifts.
Liquidity Maps
Mapping swing highs/lows helps predict stop hunts.
Conclusion
Market Structure Analysis is not just a trading tool—it is the foundation of price action trading. By learning to read swing highs, swing lows, breaks of structure, and liquidity grabs, traders gain the ability to anticipate market moves with precision.
Unlike lagging indicators, structure reveals real-time intent of market participants. Whether you are an intraday scalper, swing trader, or long-term investor, market structure is your compass in the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.
Mastering it requires practice, patience, and discipline, but once understood, it transforms how you see the market—no longer as random noise, but as an organized story driven by psychology and institutional activity.
A short and sharp rally likelyBEL CMP 385
Fibs - the stock has halted at fib confluence at 374/376.
Oscillators - At this imp support we have both the detrend and the composite at its support. This is positive.
Elliott - this correction is the iv wave down. Which has also found a trendline support. Since wave i and v are generally equal. The stock should rally from here to 445.
Conclusion - the vth wave is a good 15% from the CMP and hence can be utilized for trading purposes.
The down trend is intactITC CMP 411.45
Elliott - the stock has completed its rally which is the X wave. Now a three wave downfall will commence.
Fibs - the stock is now trading below its lower confluence at 411/413. Hence we know it is getting weaker.
MA - all the MA's together means the stock is about to take a direction.
Composite - the oscillator below its averages is danger.
Conclusion - Every indicator is pointing at the continuation of the down trend. To me the first wave down will not not get over before 344.
Stock Showdown Saturday: Can You Spot the Trade?Disclaimer:
The chart used in this video is from May 2023 (over 3 months old). It is shown only for educational purposes, to demonstrate strategy-building ideas and share trading experience. This is not financial advice and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy, sell, or skip any stock. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
Part 3 Trading Master Class With Experts Non-Directional Strategies
Used when you expect low or high volatility but no clear trend.
Straddle
When to Use: Expecting big move either way.
Setup: Buy call + Buy put (same strike, same expiry).
Risk: High premium cost.
Reward: Large if price moves sharply.
Strangle
When to Use: Expect big move but want lower cost.
Setup: Buy OTM call + Buy OTM put.
Risk: Lower premium but needs bigger move to profit.
Iron Condor
When to Use: Expect sideways movement.
Setup: Sell OTM call + Buy higher OTM call, Sell OTM put + Buy lower OTM put.
Risk: Limited.
Reward: Premium income.
Butterfly Spread
When to Use: Expect price to stay near a target.
Setup: Combination of long and short calls/puts to profit from low volatility.
Part 2 Trading Master Class With ExpertsDirectional Strategies
These are for traders with a clear market view.
Long Call (Bullish)
When to Use: Expecting significant upward movement.
Setup: Buy a call option.
Risk: Limited to premium paid.
Reward: Unlimited.
Example: NIFTY at 20,000, you buy 20,100 CE for ₹100 premium. If NIFTY closes at 20,500, your profit = ₹400 - ₹100 = ₹300.
Long Put (Bearish)
When to Use: Expecting price drop.
Setup: Buy a put option.
Risk: Limited to premium.
Reward: Large if the asset falls.
Example: Stock at ₹500, buy 480 PE for ₹10. If stock drops to ₹450, profit = ₹30 - ₹10 = ₹20.
Covered Call (Mildly Bullish)
When to Use: Own the stock but expect limited upside.
Setup: Hold stock + Sell call option.
Risk: Stock downside risk.
Reward: Premium income + stock gains until strike price.
Example: Own Reliance at ₹2,500, sell 2,600 CE for ₹20 premium.
Part 2 Support And ResistanceHow Options Work in Trading
Imagine a stock is trading at ₹1,000.
You believe it will rise to ₹1,100 in a month. You could:
Buy the stock: You need ₹1,000 per share.
Buy a call option: You pay a small premium (say ₹50) for the right to buy at ₹1,000 later.
If the stock rises to ₹1,100:
Stock profit = ₹100
Call option profit = ₹100 (intrinsic value) - ₹50 (premium) = ₹50 net profit (but with much lower capital).
This leverage makes options attractive but also risky — if the stock doesn’t rise, your premium is lost.
Categories of Options Strategies
Options strategies can be divided into three main categories:
Directional Strategies – Profit from price movements.
Non-Directional (Neutral) Strategies – Profit from sideways markets.
Hedging Strategies – Protect existing positions.
Part 1 Support And ResistanceIntroduction to Options Trading
Options trading is one of the most flexible and powerful tools in the financial markets. Unlike stocks, where you simply buy and sell ownership of a company, options are derivative contracts that give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified time frame.
The beauty of options lies in their strategic possibilities — they allow traders to make money in rising, falling, or even sideways markets, often with less capital than buying stocks outright. But with that flexibility comes complexity, so understanding strategies is crucial.
Key Terms in Options Trading
Before we jump into strategies, let’s understand the key terms:
Call Option – Gives the right to buy the underlying asset at a fixed price (strike price) before expiry.
Put Option – Gives the right to sell the underlying asset at a fixed price before expiry.
Strike Price – The price at which you can buy/sell the asset.
Premium – The price you pay to buy an option.
Expiry Date – The date the option contract ends.
ITM (In-the-Money) – When exercising the option would be profitable.
ATM (At-the-Money) – Strike price is close to the current market price.
OTM (Out-of-the-Money) – Option has no intrinsic value yet.
Lot Size – Minimum number of shares/contracts per option.
Intrinsic Value – The real value if exercised now.
Time Value – Extra premium based on time left to expiry.
The rally should fade from here!!Nifty Auto CMP 24118
Elliott - The a wave of X is an expanding triangle. The b wave is a zig zag. And the rally is the c wave. Hence now a three wave downfall will happen from here.
Fibs - the rally has halted at the 50% fib retracement. Hence we know the Index is at a strong resistance.
Composite- the oscillator has just reached below its averages and hence its a zone of resistance.
Conclusion - Watch this zone carefully for this week, coz the probability that it will turn from here is very very high.