Nifty works perfectly on each levels provided on last week levelNifty works perfectly on chart and each levels sell on rise will work if break 24650 then short covering upmove will come so better to watch then take fresh trade tomorrow
Nifty both side updated levels given on chart
Rate cuts geopolitical issues, tarrif will act both side move play safe , risk is high at current market scenario
Wave Analysis
Natural gas buy given near 262-256 target 275 hit again support Natural gas buy given near 256 to 262 , upside target 275 hit , again at support area , avoid fresh buying until Trump and Putin meeting outcome not come both side big movement possible based on event.
Natural gas updated levels given on chart
Rate cuts geopolitical issues, tarrif will act both side move play safe , risk is high at current market scenario
Crude updated levels buy near today low for positional Crude updated levels given on chart, buy on dip near today low updated levels given on chart.
russia Ukraine ceasefire will not be done easily .
Rate cuts geopolitical issues, tarrif will act both side move play safe , risk is high at current market scenario
Silver sell recommended near 115600 better to book profit nowSilver sell given near 115600 , better to book profit on sell trade .
Updated levels given on chart , 38.20 to 38.25 , 38.65,38.70 resistance area on silver comex
Rate cuts geopolitical issues, tarrif will act both side move play safe , risk is high at current market scenario
Gold sell on rise given near 3385-3390 , book profit now at 3350Gold sell trade recommended near 3385-3390 , better to book profit on sell trade at 3350 , updated levels given on chart , if break 3375 the. 3415,3445, 3500+ also possible .
Rate cuts geopolitical issues, tarrif will act both side move play safe
12 August 2025 Nifty50 brekout and Breakdown leval1. Bullish Trade Plan (Call Side – CE)
Above 24,818 →
Strong upside breakout. Expect short covering rally; positional traders may hold CE.
Above 24,718 →
CE entry zone for swing/positional buying. Targets can be 24,818+ with trailing SL below 24,650.
Above 24,650 →
Market bias turns positive; intraday momentum likely to stay bullish. Can scalp CE with strict SL.
Above 24,432 (Opening S1) →
CE buy zone for intraday. Use for quick trades if supported by volume.
Above 24,350 →
CE buy trigger; minor bullish push possible. Keep SL just below level.
Above 24,220 →
CE safe zone; market sentiment remains positive unless price falls back below.
2. Bearish Trade Plan (Put Side – PE)
Below 24,818 →
First sign of weakness if rejection happens here; safe PE zone starts.
Below 24,718 →
Risky PE zone; may lead to quick downside movement if selling pressure builds.
Below 24,600 →
Intraday negative trade view; bears get control.
Below 24,400 (Opening R1) →
PE buy trigger for intraday shorts.
Below 24,330 →
Clear downside intraday setup; scalpers can enter PE with SL above level.
Below 24,200 →
Safe zone for PE; trend likely to continue down.
Below 24,170 →
Unwinding zone; fall may accelerate quickly to next supports.
Part6 Learn Institution TradingIntroduction to Options Trading
Options are like a financial “contract” that gives you rights but not obligations.
When you buy an option, you are buying the right to buy or sell an asset at a specific price before a certain date.
They’re mainly used in stocks, commodities, indexes, and currencies.
Two main types of options:
Call Option – Right to buy an asset at a set price.
Put Option – Right to sell an asset at a set price.
Key terms:
Strike Price – The price at which you can buy/sell the asset.
Expiration Date – The last day you can use the option.
Premium – Price paid to buy the option.
In the Money (ITM) – Option has intrinsic value.
Out of the Money (OTM) – Option has no intrinsic value yet.
At the Money (ATM) – Strike price equals current market price.
Options give traders flexibility, leverage, and hedging power. But with great power comes great “margin calls” if you misuse them.
Why Traders Use Options
Options aren’t just for speculation — they have multiple uses:
Speculation – Betting on price moves.
Hedging – Protecting an existing investment from loss.
Income Generation – Selling options for premium income.
Risk Management – Limiting losses through defined-risk trades.
Part4 Institutional TradingStraddle
When to Use: Expect big move but unsure direction.
How It Works: Buy call and put at same strike & expiry.
Risk: High premium cost.
Reward: Big if price moves sharply up or down.
Example: Stock at ₹100, buy call ₹100 (₹4) and put ₹100 (₹4). Cost ₹8. Needs a big move to profit.
Strangle
When to Use: Expect big move but want cheaper entry than straddle.
How It Works: Buy OTM call and put.
Risk: Cheaper than straddle but needs larger move.
Example: Stock at ₹100, buy call ₹105 (₹3) and put ₹95 (₹3). Cost ₹6.
Iron Condor
When to Use: Expect low volatility.
How It Works: Sell an OTM call spread + sell an OTM put spread.
Risk: Limited by spread width.
Reward: Limited to premium collected.
Example: Stock at ₹100, sell call ₹110, buy call ₹115; sell put ₹90, buy put ₹85.
$PI – Elliott Wave Correction Unfolding NASDAQ:PI – Elliott Wave Correction Unfolding
The recent 5-wave impulse topped at 0.4661, marking a strong rally phase ✅.
Now, the structure is shifting into a corrective ABC wave:
Wave (a) completed with a sharp drop
Wave (b) rebound nearing completion around the 0.4100 region
Wave (c) projection:
First support at 0.3695 (Fib 0.618 retracement)
Deeper correction possible towards 0.3383 if selling pressure accelerates
📊 Key Observations:
Short-term structure favors a bearish pullback before the next bullish setup
Watch 0.4100 — failure to break higher keeps correction in play
High volatility expected during completion of Wave C
Conclusion : If price holds above 0.3695 after the correction, bulls may regain control. But a break below could extend the retracement to 0.3383 before any major rebound.
Part8 Trading Master ClassIntroduction to Options Trading
Options are like a financial “contract” that gives you rights but not obligations.
When you buy an option, you are buying the right to buy or sell an asset at a specific price before a certain date.
They’re mainly used in stocks, commodities, indexes, and currencies.
Two main types of options:
Call Option – Right to buy an asset at a set price.
Put Option – Right to sell an asset at a set price.
Key terms:
Strike Price – The price at which you can buy/sell the asset.
Expiration Date – The last day you can use the option.
Premium – Price paid to buy the option.
In the Money (ITM) – Option has intrinsic value.
Out of the Money (OTM) – Option has no intrinsic value yet.
At the Money (ATM) – Strike price equals current market price.
Options give traders flexibility, leverage, and hedging power. But with great power comes great “margin calls” if you misuse them.
[SeoVereign] ETHEREUM Outlook – August 12, 2025I will present a short position perspective on Ethereum for August 12.
This idea is based on the premise that the direction is downward, derived from a strict counting of Bitcoin, and the specific entry point was set based on the Shark pattern.
Accordingly, the average take-profit target was set at around 4,126 USDT.
I plan to continue updating this idea as the movement unfolds.
Thank you.
Psychology & Risk Management in Trading 1. Introduction
Trading is often thought of as a purely numbers-driven game — charts, technical indicators, fundamental analysis, and economic data. But in reality, the true battlefield is inside your head. Two traders can have access to the exact same market data, yet end up with completely different results. The difference lies in psychology and risk management.
Psychology determines how you make decisions under pressure.
Risk management determines whether you survive long enough to benefit from good decisions.
Think of trading as a three-legged stool:
Strategy – Your technical/fundamental system for entering and exiting trades.
Psychology – Your ability to stick to the plan under real conditions.
Risk Management – Your safeguard against catastrophic loss.
If one leg is missing, the stool collapses. A profitable strategy without psychological discipline becomes useless. A strong mindset without proper risk controls eventually faces ruin. And perfect risk management without skill or discipline simply results in slow losses.
Our goal here is to align mindset with money management for long-term success.
2. Understanding Trading Psychology
2.1. Why Psychology Matters More Than You Think
When you’re trading, money is not just numbers — it represents:
Security (fear of losing it)
Freedom (desire to win more)
Ego (feeling smart or dumb based on market outcomes)
This emotional attachment creates mental biases that cloud judgment. Unlike a chessboard, the market is an uncertain game — the same move can lead to a win or loss depending on external forces beyond your control.
The primary enemy is not “the market,” but you:
Closing winning trades too early out of fear.
Holding onto losing trades hoping they’ll recover.
Overtrading to “make back” losses.
Avoiding valid setups after a losing streak.
2.2. The Main Psychological Biases in Trading
1. Loss Aversion
Humans hate losing more than they like winning. Research shows losing $100 feels twice as bad as gaining $100 feels good.
In trading, this causes:
Refusing to take stop losses.
Adding to losing positions to “average down.”
2. Overconfidence Bias
After a streak of wins, traders often overestimate their skill.
Example: Turning a $1,000 account into $2,000 in a week might lead to doubling trade size without a valid reason.
3. Confirmation Bias
Seeking only information that supports your existing view. If you’re bullish on gold, you might only read bullish news and ignore bearish signals.
4. Recency Bias
Giving too much weight to recent events. A trader who just experienced a big rally might expect it to continue, ignoring long-term resistance levels.
5. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
Jumping into trades without proper analysis because you see the market moving.
6. Revenge Trading
Trying to “get back” at the market after a loss by taking impulsive trades.
2.3. Emotional States and Their Effects
Fear – Leads to hesitation, missed opportunities, and premature exits.
Greed – Leads to over-leveraging and chasing setups.
Hope – Keeps traders in losing trades far longer than necessary.
Regret – Causes paralysis, stopping you from entering new opportunities.
Euphoria – False sense of invincibility, leading to reckless trades.
3. Mastering the Trader’s Mindset
3.1. Accepting Uncertainty
Markets are probabilistic, not certain. The best trade setups still lose sometimes. The key is to think in terms of probabilities, not certainties.
Mental shift:
Bad trade ≠ losing trade.
Good trade ≠ winning trade.
A “good trade” is one where you followed your plan and managed risk — regardless of the outcome.
3.2. Developing Discipline
Discipline means doing what your trading plan says every time, even when you feel like doing otherwise.
Practical ways to build discipline:
Pre-market checklist (entry/exit rules, risk per trade, market conditions).
Post-trade review to identify emotional decisions.
Simulated trading to practice following rules without monetary pressure.
3.3. Managing Emotional Cycles
Traders often go through repeated emotional phases:
Excitement – New strategy, first wins.
Euphoria – Overconfidence and overtrading.
Fear/Panic – Sharp drawdown after reckless trades.
Desperation – Trying to recover losses quickly.
Resignation – Stepping back, reevaluating.
Rebuilding – Adopting better discipline.
Your goal is to flatten the cycle, reducing extreme highs and lows.
4. Risk Management: The Survival Mechanism
4.1. The Goal of Risk Management
Trading is not about avoiding losses — losses are inevitable. The aim is to control the size of your losses so they don’t destroy your capital or confidence.
4.2. The Three Pillars of Risk Management
1. Position Sizing
Determine how much capital to risk per trade. Common rules:
Risk only 1–2% of total capital on any single trade.
Example: If you have ₹1,00,000 and risk 1% per trade, your max loss is ₹1,000.
2. Stop Losses
Predetermined exit points to limit losses.
Hard stops – Fixed at a price level.
Trailing stops – Move with the trade to lock in profits.
3. Risk-Reward Ratio
A measure of potential reward vs. risk.
Example:
Risk: ₹500
Potential Reward: ₹1,500
R:R = 1:3 (good)
4.3. The Power of Capital Preservation
Here’s why big losses are dangerous:
Lose 10% → Need 11% gain to recover.
Lose 50% → Need 100% gain to recover.
The bigger the loss, the harder the comeback. Capital preservation should be your #1 priority.
4.4. Avoiding Overleveraging
Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Many traders blow accounts not because their strategy was bad, but because they used excessive leverage.
5. Integrating Psychology with Risk Management
5.1. The Feedback Loop
Poor psychology → Poor risk decisions → Bigger losses → Worse psychology.
You must break the loop by locking in good risk rules before trading.
5.2. The Risk Management Mindset
Treat each trade as just one of thousands you’ll make.
Focus on execution quality, not daily P/L.
Celebrate following your plan, not just winning.
5.3. Journaling
A trading journal should include:
Entry/exit points and reasons.
Risk per trade.
Emotional state before/during/after.
Lessons learned.
Over time, patterns emerge that reveal weaknesses in both mindset and risk control.
6. Practical Tips for Building Psychological Strength
Meditation & Mindfulness – Keeps emotions in check.
Physical Health – A healthy body supports a calm mind.
Sleep – Fatigue increases impulsive decisions.
Routine – Structured trading hours reduce stress.
Detach from P/L – Judge performance over months, not days.
7. Case Studies: When Psychology Meets Risk
Case Study 1 – The Overconfident Scalper
Wins 10 trades in a row, doubles position size.
One loss wipes out previous gains.
Lesson: Stick to fixed risk % per trade regardless of winning streaks.
Case Study 2 – The Hopeful Investor
Holds losing position for months.
Avoids taking stop loss because “it’ll recover.”
Lesson: Hope is not a strategy; use predefined exits.
8. Conclusion
Trading success is 20% strategy and 80% mindset + risk control. The market will always test your patience, discipline, and emotional control. By mastering your psychology and implementing rock-solid risk management, you give yourself the best chance not just to make money — but to stay in the game long enough to grow it.
Global Macro Trading1. Introduction to Global Macro Trading
Global macro trading is like playing chess on a planetary board.
Instead of just focusing on a single company or sector, you’re watching how the entire world economy moves—tracking interest rates, currencies, commodities, geopolitical tensions, and policy changes—then placing trades based on your macroeconomic outlook.
At its core:
“Macro” = Large-scale economic factors
Goal = Profit from broad market moves triggered by these factors.
It’s the domain where George Soros famously “broke the Bank of England” in 1992 by shorting the pound, and where hedge funds like Bridgewater use economic cycles to decide positions.
2. The Philosophy Behind Global Macro
The idea is simple: economies move in cycles—boom, slowdown, recession, recovery.
These cycles are driven by:
Interest rates
Inflation & deflation
Government policies
Trade balances
Currency strength/weakness
Geopolitical events
Global macro traders seek to anticipate big shifts—not just day-to-day noise—and bet accordingly.
The moves are often multi-asset: FX, commodities, equities, and bonds all come into play.
3. Key Tools of the Global Macro Trader
Global macro traders don’t just glance at charts—they build a full “global dashboard” of indicators.
A. Economic Data
GDP Growth Rates – Signs of expansion or contraction.
Inflation – CPI, PPI, and core inflation measures.
Employment data – Non-farm payrolls (US), unemployment rates.
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – Early signal of economic health.
Consumer Confidence – Sentiment as a leading indicator.
B. Central Bank Policy
Interest Rate Changes – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBI decisions.
Quantitative Easing/Tightening – Money supply adjustments.
Forward Guidance – Central bank speeches hinting future moves.
C. Market Sentiment
VIX (Volatility Index)
COT (Commitment of Traders) reports
Currency positioning data
D. Geopolitical Risks
Wars, sanctions, trade disputes.
Elections in major economies.
Energy supply disruptions.
4. Core Instruments Used in Global Macro
Global macro traders use multiple asset classes because economic trends ripple across markets.
Currencies (FX) – Betting on relative strength between nations.
Example: Shorting the yen if Japan keeps rates ultra-low while the US hikes.
Government Bonds – Positioning for rising or falling yields.
Example: Buying US Treasuries in risk-off conditions.
Equity Indices – Long or short entire markets.
Example: Shorting the FTSE 100 if UK recession fears rise.
Commodities – Crude oil, gold, copper, agricultural goods.
Example: Long gold during geopolitical instability.
Derivatives – Futures, options, and swaps to hedge or leverage.
5. Styles of Global Macro Trading
Global macro is not one-size-fits-all. Traders pick different timeframes and strategies.
A. Discretionary Macro
Human-driven decision-making.
Uses news, analysis, and gut instinct.
Pros: Flexibility in unusual events.
Cons: Subjective, emotional bias risk.
B. Systematic Macro
Algorithmic, rules-based.
Uses historical correlations, signals.
Pros: Discipline, backtesting possible.
Cons: May miss sudden regime changes.
C. Event-Driven Macro
Trades around specific catalysts.
Examples: Brexit vote, OPEC meeting, US elections.
D. Thematic Macro
Focuses on big themes over months or years.
Example: Betting on long-term dollar weakness due to US debt growth.
6. Fundamental Analysis in Macro
Here’s how a macro trader might think:
Example: US Interest Rates Rise
USD likely strengthens (carry trade appeal).
US Treasuries yields rise → prices fall.
Emerging market currencies weaken (capital flows to USD).
Gold may fall as yield-bearing assets look more attractive.
The chain reaction thinking is key—every macro event has a ripple effect.
7. Technical Analysis in Macro
While fundamentals set the direction, technicals help with timing.
Moving Averages – Identify trend direction.
Breakouts & Support/Resistance – Confirm market shifts.
Fibonacci Levels – Gauge pullback/reversal zones.
Volume Profile – See where major players are active.
Intermarket Correlation Charts – Compare FX, bonds, and commodities.
8. Risk Management in Macro Trading
Macro trades can be big winners—but also big losers—because they often involve leverage.
Key principles:
Never risk more than 1–2% of capital on a single trade.
Diversify across asset classes.
Use stop-loss orders.
Hedge positions (e.g., long oil but short an oil-sensitive currency).
9. Examples of Historical Macro Trades
A. Soros & the Pound (1992)
Bet: UK pound overvalued in the ERM.
Action: Shorted GBP heavily.
Result: £1 billion profit in one day.
B. Paul Tudor Jones & 1987 Crash
Used macro signals to foresee stock market collapse.
Went short S&P 500 futures.
C. Oil Spike 2008
Many traders went long crude as supply fears rose and USD weakened.
10. The Global Macro Trading Process
Macro Research
Economic releases, policy trends, historical cycles.
Hypothesis Building
Example: “If the Fed keeps rates high while ECB cuts, EUR/USD will fall.”
Instrument Selection
Pick the cleanest trade (FX, bonds, commodities).
Position Sizing
Based on risk tolerance and conviction.
Execution & Timing
Use technicals for entry/exit.
Monitoring
Constantly reassess as data comes in.
Exit Strategy
Profit targets and stop-losses in place.
Final Takeaways
Global macro trading is the Formula 1 of financial markets—fast, complex, and requiring mastery of multiple disciplines.
Success depends on:
Staying informed.
Thinking in cause-and-effect chains.
Managing risk religiously.
Being adaptable to changing regimes.
A disciplined global macro trader can profit in bull markets, bear markets, and everything in between—because they’re not tied to one asset or region.
Instead, they follow the money and the momentum wherever it flows.
SME & IPO Trading Opportunities 1. Introduction
The stock market is a living, breathing organism — constantly evolving with trends, cycles, and opportunities. Two of the most exciting and profitable niches for traders and investors are Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and Small & Medium Enterprise (SME) IPOs.
These areas often combine market hype, information asymmetry, liquidity surges, and price volatility — all of which can create significant profit opportunities for those who understand how to navigate them.
While IPOs of large companies grab headlines, SME IPOs are quietly becoming one of the fastest-growing segments in markets like India, offering massive potential for early movers. However, both IPOs and SME IPOs require sharp analysis, disciplined execution, and awareness of risks — because for every success story, there’s a cautionary tale.
2. Understanding IPOs and SME IPOs
2.1 What is an IPO?
An Initial Public Offering (IPO) is when a private company issues shares to the public for the first time to raise capital.
It’s like opening the gates for the public to invest in a business that was previously limited to private investors and founders.
Key purposes of an IPO:
Raise capital for expansion, debt repayment, or new projects.
Increase public visibility and brand credibility.
Provide an exit or partial liquidity to existing investors (VCs, PE funds, promoters).
2.2 What is an SME IPO?
An SME IPO is similar to a normal IPO, but it’s specifically for Small and Medium Enterprises — companies with smaller scale, market cap, and turnover.
They list on dedicated SME platforms such as:
NSE Emerge (National Stock Exchange)
BSE SME (Bombay Stock Exchange)
Differences from mainboard IPOs:
Feature Mainboard IPO SME IPO
Minimum Post-Issue Capital ₹10 crore ₹1 crore
Issue Size Large (hundreds/thousands of crores) Smaller (few crores to ~50 crore)
Lot Size Smaller (say ₹15,000) Larger (₹1-2 lakh minimum)
Investor Base Retail + QIB + HNI Primarily HNI + Limited Retail
Listing Main Exchange SME Platform
2.3 The Growing Popularity of SME IPOs in India
SME IPOs in India are booming because:
Huge wealth creation in the past few years (several SME IPOs have given 100%-500% returns post-listing).
Lower competition compared to mainboard IPOs.
Increasing investor participation via HNIs and informed retail investors.
Supportive regulations from SEBI for SMEs.
3. Why IPOs and SME IPOs Offer Trading Opportunities
3.1 The Hype Cycle
IPOs are heavily marketed through roadshows, advertisements, and media coverage. This creates a buzz and often leads to:
Oversubscription → Strong listing potential.
Emotional buying on Day 1 due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
SME IPOs, though less advertised, also create strong niche hype within small-cap investor communities.
3.2 Information Asymmetry
Large institutional players often have detailed financial data and business insights — but in IPOs and SME IPOs, even retail investors get access to a prospectus (DRHP/RHP). Those who know how to read and interpret it can identify hidden gems before the crowd.
3.3 Volatility and Liquidity
Mainboard IPOs: Usually see high trading volumes on listing day → intraday traders love it.
SME IPOs: Lower liquidity but can see massive price jumps due to small free-float shares.
3.4 First-Mover Advantage
For fundamentally strong IPOs, getting in at the IPO price can mean riding a long-term growth story from the very beginning. Example: Infosys, TCS, Avenue Supermarts (DMart) IPO investors made multifold returns over years.
4. Types of Opportunities in IPO & SME IPO Trading
4.1 Listing Gains
Buy in IPO → Sell on listing day for profit.
Works best for oversubscribed IPOs with strong demand.
Example:
Nykaa IPO (2021) listed at ~78% premium.
Some SME IPOs list with 100%-300% premium.
4.2 Short-Term Swing Trades Post Listing
After listing, many IPOs see price discovery phases:
Some shoot up further due to momentum buying.
Others fall sharply after hype fades.
Traders can capture these 2–10 day swings.
4.3 Long-Term Investing
Identify fundamentally strong IPOs and SMEs that can grow significantly over 3–5 years.
Example: IRCTC IPO at ₹320 in 2019 → over ₹5,500 in 2021 (17x in 2 years).
4.4 SME Platform Migration
Some SME-listed companies eventually migrate to the mainboard exchange after meeting eligibility criteria — which can cause valuation re-rating and price jumps.
4.5 Pre-IPO Investments
For advanced traders/investors, investing in companies before they announce IPO plans can yield extraordinary gains when the IPO finally happens.
5. How to Identify High-Potential IPOs & SME IPOs
5.1 Key Financial Metrics
Revenue Growth Rate (Consistent >15–20%)
Profit Margins (Improving over time)
Return on Equity (ROE) (>15% is good)
Debt-to-Equity Ratio (Lower is better)
Cash Flow Consistency
5.2 Qualitative Factors
Industry growth potential.
Competitive advantage (Moat).
Strong management track record.
Promoter holding and their skin in the game.
5.3 Subscription Data
For IPOs, tracking subscription numbers daily:
High QIB (Qualified Institutional Buyer) subscription → good sign.
SME IPOs with oversubscription in HNI and retail often see strong listing.
5.4 Grey Market Premium (GMP)
The Grey Market is an unofficial market where IPO shares are traded before listing. GMP gives a rough idea of market expectations, but it’s not always reliable.
6. Risk Factors in SME & IPO Trading
6.1 Listing Day Disappointments
Not all IPOs list at a premium — some open below issue price (listing loss).
6.2 Hype vs Reality
Companies might look attractive in marketing materials but have weak fundamentals.
6.3 Low Liquidity in SME IPOs
Getting out quickly in SME IPOs can be tough — spreads can be huge.
6.4 Regulatory & Compliance Risks
SMEs sometimes face corporate governance issues or delayed disclosures.
7. Trading Strategies for IPOs & SME IPOs
7.1 For Listing Gains
Focus on IPOs with >20x oversubscription in QIB category.
Track GMP trends — consistent rise before listing is a bullish signal.
Avoid low-demand IPOs.
7.2 Post-Listing Momentum Trading
Use 5-min/15-min charts to catch intraday breakouts.
Set tight stop-loss (2–3%) due to volatility.
Volume analysis is critical.
7.3 Swing Trading SME IPOs
Wait for first 5–7 trading days after listing.
Buy on dips when price consolidates above listing price.
7.4 Long-Term Positioning
Enter strong companies post-listing dip (common after initial hype).
Monitor quarterly results for sustained growth.
7.5 Pre-IPO Placement Investing
Requires large capital and network access.
Higher risk but can yield 2x–5x returns at IPO.
8. Tools & Resources for IPO & SME IPO Trading
Stock exchange websites (NSE/BSE) for official IPO details.
SEBI filings for DRHP/RHP.
IPO subscription trackers (e.g., Chittorgarh, IPOWatch).
Financial news platforms for sentiment analysis.
Charting tools like TradingView for technical setups.
9. Case Studies
Case Study 1: Mainboard IPO Success
Avenue Supermarts (DMart)
IPO Price: ₹299 (2017)
Listing Price: ₹604 (+102%)
5-Year Return: 7x
Key Takeaway: Strong fundamentals + brand recall = multi-year wealth creation.
Case Study 2: SME IPO Multi-bagger
Essen Speciality Films (Listed on NSE Emerge)
Issue Price: ₹101 (2022)
1-Year Price: ₹400+ (4x)
Key Takeaway: Low float + strong earnings growth can lead to explosive returns.
Case Study 3: Listing Loss
Paytm
IPO Price: ₹2,150 (2021)
Listing Price: ₹1,950 (−9%)
Fell to ₹540 in 1 year.
Key Takeaway: High valuations without profitability can lead to severe post-listing crashes.
10. Future Outlook for SME & IPO Trading
Digital revolution → More SMEs tapping capital markets.
Retail investor growth → Higher demand for IPOs.
Regulatory support → Easier SME listings.
Sectoral trends like EV, renewable energy, fintech, and AI are likely to dominate IPO pipelines.
Conclusion
IPOs and SME IPOs present some of the most exciting and potentially profitable opportunities in the stock market — but they’re not for blind speculation.
Success requires:
Understanding the business and its valuation.
Reading market sentiment via subscription data, GMP, and news flow.
Executing trades with discipline (entry/exit plans).
Managing risk, especially in volatile SME IPOs.
For traders, these segments offer short bursts of high liquidity and volatility, perfect for intraday and swing plays. For long-term investors, they provide a chance to get in early on the next market leader.
In the coming years, SME IPOs are likely to become the new hotspot for aggressive wealth creation — but only for those who master the art of filtering hype from genuine opportunity.
Volume Profile & Market Structure Analysis1. Introduction
If you’ve been trading for a while, you’ve probably noticed something: prices don’t move randomly. They dance around certain areas, stall at specific levels, and reverse at others. That’s no coincidence. It’s market structure at play — the way price organizes itself — and volume profile helps us see where the market cares most.
Think of market structure as the skeleton of price action and volume profile as the X-ray showing where the “meat” (volume) is attached. Together, they can give traders a huge edge in understanding the battlefield between buyers and sellers.
2. The Basics of Volume Profile
2.1 What Is Volume Profile?
Volume Profile is a charting tool that plots the amount of trading volume at each price level over a chosen time period. Instead of showing volume below the chart (like a regular volume histogram), it plots it horizontally along the price axis.
It tells you:
Where the most trading activity happened (high volume nodes)
Where little activity happened (low volume nodes)
Which price levels acted as magnets or barriers for price
Key Components:
Point of Control (POC): The price level where the most volume traded.
Value Area (VA): The range of prices where ~70% of the total volume occurred (Value Area High = VAH, Value Area Low = VAL).
High Volume Nodes (HVN): Price levels with heavy trading interest.
Low Volume Nodes (LVN): Price levels with minimal trading activity.
2.2 Why Volume Profile Matters
Shows Market Consensus: Prices with high volume indicate agreement between buyers and sellers — they’re comfortable transacting there.
Identifies Support/Resistance: HVNs often act like magnets, LVNs often act like rejection zones.
Helps Spot Breakouts/Breakdowns: Low volume areas can lead to fast price movement when breached.
2.3 Reading Volume Profile
Imagine a bell curve on its side.
The fattest part = POC (most trades)
The middle “bulge” = Value Area
The thin edges = rejection zones
When price is inside the value area, expect choppy behavior. When it’s outside, you might be looking at a trending opportunity — but only if there’s a reason (like news, earnings, or macro shifts).
3. The Basics of Market Structure
3.1 What Is Market Structure?
Market Structure refers to the natural ebb and flow of price. In simple terms, it’s how price swings form:
Higher Highs (HH)
Higher Lows (HL)
Lower Highs (LH)
Lower Lows (LL)
By reading this, we can tell if the market is trending, ranging, or reversing.
3.2 Market Phases
Every market moves through four basic phases:
Accumulation: Smart money builds positions in a range (low volatility).
Markup: Price trends upward as demand outweighs supply.
Distribution: Smart money sells into strength (sideways movement).
Markdown: Price trends downward as supply outweighs demand.
3.3 Structure Breaks
A Break of Structure (BOS) happens when the price breaks past a prior high or low in a way that changes trend direction.
A Change of Character (CHoCH) is an early clue — the first hint of a possible trend change before the BOS.
4. Marrying Volume Profile with Market Structure
This is where the real magic happens.
Market structure tells you where the market is going; volume profile tells you where the market will likely react.
4.1 Scenario 1: Trending Market
In an uptrend:
Look for pullbacks into Value Area Lows (VAL) or HVNs from previous sessions — these often act as strong support.
If price breaks above the previous day’s Value Area High (VAH) with strong volume, you could see continuation.
In a downtrend:
Pullbacks into VAHs often act as resistance.
Breakdown through VAL with low volume ahead can lead to fast drops.
4.2 Scenario 2: Ranging Market
HVNs = chop zones (don’t expect big moves until price escapes).
LVNs = potential breakout points (low liquidity zones where price can “jump” quickly).
4.3 Example Trade Setup
Let’s say:
The market is in an uptrend (structure: HH, HL).
Price retraces into the prior day’s Value Area Low (VAL).
At that level, you see absorption (buyers stepping in aggressively).
You enter long, targeting the POC and then VAH as profit zones.
5. Advanced Volume Profile Concepts
5.1 Session Profiles vs. Composite Profiles
Session Profile: One day’s worth of volume data.
Composite Profile: Multiple days/weeks/months combined — useful for swing trading and identifying macro levels.
5.2 Single Prints
Areas where price moved quickly, leaving behind minimal volume. They often get revisited (price likes to “fill in” these gaps).
5.3 Volume Gaps
Price can accelerate through low volume zones because there’s little resistance from previous trades.
6. Advanced Market Structure Concepts
6.1 Liquidity Pools
Clusters of stop-loss orders above swing highs/lows. Price often grabs these liquidity levels before reversing.
6.2 Internal vs. External Structure
Internal: Small swings inside a larger move — useful for fine-tuning entries.
External: Larger market swings — defines the main trend.
6.3 Supply & Demand Zones
Areas where strong buying or selling initiated. Often align with volume profile HVNs or LVNs.
7. Combining Both for Strategic Entries
7.1 The Confluence Principle
A trade idea is stronger when:
Market structure aligns with your bias (trend/range).
Volume profile shows a significant level at that same point.
Price action confirms (candlestick pattern, momentum, or order flow).
7.2 Step-by-Step Process
Identify trend via market structure.
Draw key swing highs/lows.
Overlay Volume Profile for the relevant timeframe.
Mark POC, VAH, VAL, HVNs, LVNs.
Wait for price to approach these levels.
Enter only when price action confirms.
8. Risk Management with Volume Profile & Structure
Stop Placement: Beyond LVNs or beyond swing points.
Position Sizing: Smaller when trading into HVNs (chop zones), larger in breakout from LVNs.
Trade Invalidation: If price closes beyond your structure level without reaction, exit.
9. Common Mistakes
Chasing Breakouts Without Volume Confirmation: Price can fake out easily.
Ignoring Higher Timeframes: A small pullback on the 5-min might be just noise in a daily uptrend.
Overloading Charts: Too many volume profiles from different timeframes can confuse your bias.
10. Practical Example — Case Study
Let’s walk through a real example (hypothetical data for teaching):
Nifty 50 daily chart shows higher highs & higher lows (uptrend).
Composite Volume Profile for last 20 days shows HVN at 21,800 and LVN at 21,550.
Price pulls back to 21,550 (LVN + previous swing low).
Intraday chart shows bullish engulfing candle with rising volume.
Entry: Long at 21,560.
Stop: 21,500 (below LVN & swing low).
Target 1: 21,800 (HVN).
Target 2: 21,950 (next resistance).
Result: Price rallies to both targets. This works because structure (uptrend) aligned with low-volume bounce and momentum shift.
Final Thoughts
Volume Profile & Market Structure Analysis isn’t magic — it’s simply a better map of the market’s landscape. Market structure shows you the roads (trend/range/reversal paths), and volume profile shows you the traffic jams and freeways.
Used together, they:
Pinpoint high-probability zones
Reduce false breakouts
Align your trades with institutional footprints
In short, if you want to trade like the pros, you need to think like the pros — and pros care about both where price is going and where volume is sitting.
Options Trading Strategies 1. Introduction to Options Trading
Options are like a financial “contract” that gives you rights but not obligations.
When you buy an option, you are buying the right to buy or sell an asset at a specific price before a certain date.
They’re mainly used in stocks, commodities, indexes, and currencies.
Two main types of options:
Call Option – Right to buy an asset at a set price.
Put Option – Right to sell an asset at a set price.
Key terms:
Strike Price – The price at which you can buy/sell the asset.
Expiration Date – The last day you can use the option.
Premium – Price paid to buy the option.
In the Money (ITM) – Option has intrinsic value.
Out of the Money (OTM) – Option has no intrinsic value yet.
At the Money (ATM) – Strike price equals current market price.
Options give traders flexibility, leverage, and hedging power. But with great power comes great “margin calls” if you misuse them.
2. Why Traders Use Options
Options aren’t just for speculation — they have multiple uses:
Speculation – Betting on price moves.
Hedging – Protecting an existing investment from loss.
Income Generation – Selling options for premium income.
Risk Management – Limiting losses through defined-risk trades.
3. Basic Options Strategies (Beginner Level)
3.1 Buying Calls
When to Use: You expect the price to go up.
How It Works: You buy a call option to lock in a lower purchase price.
Risk: Limited to the premium paid.
Reward: Unlimited upside.
Example: Stock at ₹100, buy a call at ₹105 strike for ₹3 premium. If stock rises to ₹120, your profit = ₹12 – ₹3 = ₹9 per share.
3.2 Buying Puts
When to Use: You expect the price to go down.
How It Works: You buy a put option to sell at a higher price later.
Risk: Limited to the premium.
Reward: Significant (but capped at the strike price minus premium).
Example: Stock at ₹100, buy a put at ₹95 for ₹2 premium. If stock drops to ₹80, profit = ₹15 – ₹2 = ₹13.
3.3 Covered Call
When to Use: You own the stock but expect it to stay flat or slightly rise.
How It Works: Sell a call option against your owned stock to collect premium.
Risk: You must sell the stock if price exceeds strike.
Reward: Stock appreciation + premium income.
Example: Own stock at ₹100, sell call at ₹105 for ₹2. If stock stays below ₹105, you keep the ₹2.
3.4 Protective Put
When to Use: You own a stock and want downside protection.
How It Works: Buy a put to protect against price drops.
Risk: Premium cost.
Reward: Security against big losses.
Example: Own stock at ₹100, buy put at ₹95 for ₹2. Even if stock crashes to ₹50, you can still sell at ₹95.
4. Intermediate Options Strategies
4.1 Bull Call Spread
When to Use: Expect moderate price rise.
How It Works: Buy a call at a lower strike, sell a call at higher strike.
Risk: Limited to net premium paid.
Reward: Limited to strike difference minus premium.
Example: Buy call at ₹100 (₹5), sell call at ₹110 (₹2). Net cost ₹3. Max profit ₹7.
4.2 Bear Put Spread
When to Use: Expect moderate decline.
How It Works: Buy put at higher strike, sell put at lower strike.
Risk: Limited to net premium paid.
Reward: Limited but cheaper than buying a single put.
Example: Buy put ₹105 (₹6), sell put ₹95 (₹3). Net cost ₹3. Max profit ₹7.
4.3 Straddle
When to Use: Expect big move but unsure direction.
How It Works: Buy call and put at same strike & expiry.
Risk: High premium cost.
Reward: Big if price moves sharply up or down.
Example: Stock at ₹100, buy call ₹100 (₹4) and put ₹100 (₹4). Cost ₹8. Needs a big move to profit.
4.4 Strangle
When to Use: Expect big move but want cheaper entry than straddle.
How It Works: Buy OTM call and put.
Risk: Cheaper than straddle but needs larger move.
Example: Stock at ₹100, buy call ₹105 (₹3) and put ₹95 (₹3). Cost ₹6.
4.5 Iron Condor
When to Use: Expect low volatility.
How It Works: Sell an OTM call spread + sell an OTM put spread.
Risk: Limited by spread width.
Reward: Limited to premium collected.
Example: Stock at ₹100, sell call ₹110, buy call ₹115; sell put ₹90, buy put ₹85.
5. Advanced Options Strategies
5.1 Butterfly Spread
When to Use: Expect stock to stay near a specific price.
How It Works: Buy 1 ITM option, sell 2 ATM options, buy 1 OTM option.
Risk: Limited.
Reward: Highest if stock ends at middle strike.
Example: Stock ₹100, buy call ₹95, sell 2 calls ₹100, buy call ₹105.
5.2 Calendar Spread
When to Use: Expect low short-term volatility but possible long-term move.
How It Works: Sell short-term option, buy long-term option at same strike.
Risk: Limited to net premium.
Reward: Comes from time decay of short option.
5.3 Ratio Spread
When to Use: Expect limited move in one direction.
How It Works: Buy 1 option, sell multiple options at different strikes.
Risk: Unlimited on one side if not hedged.
5.4 Diagonal Spread
When to Use: Expect gradual move over time.
How It Works: Buy long-term option at one strike, sell short-term option at different strike.
6. Risk Management in Options
Even though options can limit loss, traders often misuse them and blow accounts.
Key risk tips:
Never risk more than 2–3% of capital on one trade.
Understand implied volatility — high IV inflates premiums.
Avoid selling naked options without sufficient margin.
Always set stop-loss rules.
7. Understanding Greeks (The DNA of Options Pricing)
Delta – How much the option price changes per ₹1 move in stock.
Gamma – How fast delta changes.
Theta – Time decay rate.
Vega – Sensitivity to volatility changes.
Rho – Interest rate sensitivity.
Mastering the Greeks means you understand why your option is moving, not just that it’s moving.
8. Common Mistakes to Avoid
Holding OTM options too close to expiry hoping for a miracle.
Selling naked calls without understanding unlimited risk.
Over-leveraging with too many contracts.
Ignoring commissions and slippage.
Not adjusting positions when market changes.
9. Practical Tips for Success
Backtest strategies on historical data.
Start with paper trading before using real money.
Track your trades in a journal.
Combine technical analysis with options knowledge.
Trade liquid options with tight bid-ask spreads.
10. Final Thoughts
Options are like a Swiss Army knife in trading — versatile, powerful, and potentially dangerous if misused. The right strategy depends on:
Market view (up, down, sideways, volatile, stable)
Risk tolerance
Timeframe
Experience level
By starting with basic strategies like covered calls or protective puts, then moving into spreads, straddles, and condors, you can build a strong foundation. With practice, risk management, and discipline, options trading can be a valuable tool in your investment journey.
The US Indices nearing strong resistanceDow Jones n S&P 500
Elliott - this is the 5th wave and the last of the impulse wave of the current swing. The 5th wave has been divided into its own 5 waves. This is the last wave or the vth of 5 in play. The tgt for both of them is some 4% from the CMP.
Conclusion - atleast for a week or two the US indices should keep rallying. This should keep our mkts also hopeful. Use any rally as an opportunity to exit.