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Wave Analysis

NIFTY BLOW OFF TOP WITH GDP DATAI see nifty forming a blow off top on monday with the Gdp data of 8.2 of q2 .. monthly, weekly, daily top open high same Later falls by 18800 in the black wxy pattern forming bigger time frame wave a. Even the last leg of uside forming diamteric bow tie pattern of neo wave theory.. ABCDEFG.. all are coming close to complete.. this December will be great to watch.. If it happen in the said time line then we are going to see a big bear market.. Welcome to 1929 again.. Fingers crossed.. * ONLY FOR TUTORIAL PURPOSE, DONOT TRADE ON THIS VIEW..
NSE:NIFTYShort
by VishalSancheti
2
Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis1. Introduction Financial markets are influenced by a vast network of economic, psychological, and structural forces. To understand price movements, one must either study the intrinsic value of an asset or analyze its price behavior. This is where fundamental and technical analysis come into play. Fundamental analysis evaluates securities by examining economic, financial, and qualitative factors. Its purpose is to estimate the true value (fair value) of a stock, commodity, or currency. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses solely on market data—primarily price and volume—to forecast future price movements. It assumes that all known fundamentals are already reflected in price. 2. What Is Fundamental Analysis? Fundamental analysis studies the underlying factors influencing a company or economy. It aims to determine whether an asset is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. Key Components of Fundamental Analysis a) Financial Statements Investors examine: Balance sheet (assets, liabilities, equity) Income statement (revenue, net profit) Cash flow statement (cash inflow/outflow) These help measure profitability, leverage, growth, liquidity, and operational efficiency. b) Economic Indicators Macro factors influence overall market conditions: GDP growth Inflation Interest rates Employment data Fiscal and monetary policy For example, rising interest rates often reduce stock market returns. c) Industry Analysis Analyzing: Industry growth rate Competition Market share Regulatory environment A strong company in a weak industry may still underperform. d) Qualitative Aspects These include: Management quality Corporate governance Brand value Innovation and product pipeline Customer loyalty Such factors often drive long-term performance. e) Valuation Models Popular methods include: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio EV/EBITDA Dividend Discount Model (DDM) These help estimate fair value compared to the market price. 3. What Is Technical Analysis? Technical analysis predicts future price movements based on historical market data such as price, volume, and market sentiment. It is commonly used by traders rather than long-term investors. Key Components of Technical Analysis a) Price Charts Different chart types help visualize market patterns: Candlestick charts Line charts Bar charts Heikin-Ashi Candlestick patterns like Doji, Hammer, and Engulfing reveal market psychology. b) Indicators and Oscillators Traders use mathematical tools to identify trends, strength, and reversals: Moving Averages (MA) RSI (Relative Strength Index) MACD Bollinger Bands Stochastic Oscillator Volume indicators Each provides signals on market entry and exit. c) Chart Patterns Patterns help anticipate future price movements: Head and Shoulders Double Top/Double Bottom Triangles Flags and Pennants Cup and handle These patterns often repeat due to consistent human behavior. d) Trend Analysis One of the most important principles: Uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) Downtrend (lower highs, lower lows) Sideways trend (range-bound market) Traders follow the trend to reduce risks. e) Support and Resistance Key price zones where buying/selling pressure increases: Support: where price tends to bounce up Resistance: where price tends to fall back Breakouts and breakdowns are major trading signals. 4. Philosophy Behind Both Analyses Fundamental Analysis Philosophy Market price does not always reflect true value. Over time, price will converge toward intrinsic value. Best for long-term investors who want to buy undervalued assets. Technical Analysis Philosophy Price discounts everything (news, emotions, fundamentals). Price moves in trends. Market psychology causes patterns that repeat over time. Best for traders focusing on short to medium time frames. 5. Time Horizon Differences Fundamental Analysis Long-term approach (months to years) Used by investors, mutual funds, and institutional players Suitable for wealth creation Technical Analysis Short-term to medium-term (minutes to weeks) Used by day traders, swing traders, scalpers Suitable for frequent trading 6. Advantages and Limitations A) Fundamental Analysis – Pros Helps identify long-term investment opportunities Provides deep understanding of a company Works well for building wealth Useful for identifying high-quality businesses Fundamental Analysis – Cons Time-consuming and complex Markets can remain irrational longer than expected Not effective for short-term trading Sudden news/events can invalidate analysis B) Technical Analysis – Pros Helps with precise entry and exit timing Works in all markets (stocks, forex, crypto, commodities) Quick and efficient Useful even without deep company knowledge Technical Analysis – Cons False signals are common Over-reliance can lead to overtrading Requires discipline and psychological control Patterns may fail during high volatility 7. Which One Should You Use? For Long-term Investors Fundamental analysis is superior because it focuses on: business strength financial health long-term growth potential It helps identify companies that compound wealth over time. For Short-term Traders Technical analysis works better due to: market-timing capabilities entry/exit precision chart-based signals Short-term price movement is mostly driven by psychology, liquidity, and volatility—technical tools capture this better. 8. Combining Both Approaches (Best Practice) Many professionals use a hybrid approach, known as Techno-Fundamental Analysis. Example Strategy: Use fundamental analysis to identify strong companies. Use technical analysis to find the right entry point. This method gives investors both quality and proper timing. 9. Conclusion Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are powerful tools, each serving different purposes in trading and investing. Fundamental analysis focuses on understanding value, financial health, and long-term prospects of assets. Technical analysis emphasizes price behavior, market psychology, and timing of trades. An ideal market participant should understand both; investors rely more on fundamentals, while traders depend heavily on technical tools. Combining both approaches enhances decision-making and offers the best balance of knowledge and timing—crucial for consistent success in financial markets.
NSE:KOTAKBANKEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Option Chain Analysis1. Understanding the Structure of an Option Chain An option chain typically has two halves: Left side → Call Options (CE) Right side → Put Options (PE) Each row corresponds to a strike price, and each strike shows several key data points: Common Columns in CE & PE: OI (Open Interest) – Total active contracts that are not yet closed. Change in OI – Shows whether new positions are being built (addition) or squared off (reduction). Volume – Number of contracts traded during the day. LTP (Last Traded Price) – Price of the option premium. Bid/Ask Prices – Best current buy and sell prices. Implied Volatility (IV) – Market expectation of volatility. The strike price sits in the center of the table, dividing Call and Put data. 2. Why Option Chain Matters Option chain analysis allows a trader to: ✓ Identify trend direction Increasing call writing may suggest bearish sentiment, while heavy put writing may suggest bullish sentiment. ✓ Spot support and resistance High Put OI indicates strong support. High Call OI indicates strong resistance. ✓ Understand market liquidity Higher OI and volume mean more active participation and better entry/exit execution. ✓ Track institutional activity Big spikes in OI usually represent large participants (FII, proprietary desks). ✓ Predict short-term price movements Based on the balance between CE and PE data. 3. Key Components of Option Chain Analysis A. Open Interest (OI) (Open Interest is the heart of option chain analysis.) Rising OI + rising price → Long Build-Up Rising OI + falling price → Short Build-Up Falling OI + rising price → Short Covering Falling OI + falling price → Long Unwinding These combinations provide clues about ongoing market activity. B. Change in Open Interest This tells you what is happening today. Example: If Put OI is rising fast, traders expect the market to stay above that strike → support. If Call OI is rising sharply, traders expect resistance at that strike. C. Option Premium and LTP Movement Premiums often rise due to: Trend strength Increased volatility (IV) Time remaining to expiry Premiums collapse due to: Trend reversal Drop in IV Time decay (theta) D. Implied Volatility (IV) IV reflects expected movement. High IV → high uncertainty → expensive options Low IV → low uncertainty → cheaper options IV also jumps ahead of major events such as RBI policy, budget, US Fed meetings, elections, etc. 4. Identifying Support & Resistance from Option Chain This is one of the most practical uses of option chain. A. Finding Support Levels Support is identified by: Highest Put OI Sharp increase in Put OI Put writers actively defending a strike Put writers (sellers) are usually strong hands, so they provide floor/ support. For example: If 22,000 PE has the highest OI, then 22,000 becomes strong support. B. Finding Resistance Levels Resistance is identified by: Highest Call OI Big Call OI additions CE writers defending a strike If 22,300 CE has the highest OI, then 22,300 becomes strong resistance. 5. PCR (Put-Call Ratio) Analysis PCR is a sentiment indicator extracted from the option chain: PCR = Total Put OI / Total Call OI Interpretation: PCR > 1 → bullish sentiment (more puts written) PCR < 1 → bearish sentiment (more calls written) PCR around 0.8–1.2 → neutral market PCR extremes: Around 1.5–1.8 → overbought (possibility of downtrend soon) Around 0.5 or lower → oversold (possibility of uptrend) 6. OI and Price Action Combination Combining price action with OI gives the highest accuracy. Bullish Signs Increasing Put OI at lower strikes Decreasing Call OI Price closing above major CE writing zones PCR rising Bearish Signs Increasing Call OI at higher strikes Heavy CE writing above spot Price closing below major PE supports PCR declining Sideways Signals Both CE and PE addition at surrounding strikes Narrow PCR near 1.0 Option premiums decaying fast 7. Option Chain Traps and Short Squeezes Option chain also reveals squeeze situations: Short Squeeze (Bullish Explosion) Heavy Call OI begins to unwind Price breaks above resistance CE writers forced to exit → premiums rise sharply Long Liquidation (Bearish Slide) Heavy Put OI unwinds Price breaks below support PE premiums shoot up These moves are usually fast and violent. 8. How to Use Option Chain for Intraday Trading Intraday traders use: A. Change in OI (minute-by-minute) This reveals immediate momentum. B. Straddle & Strangle Levels High combined premium = expected movement range. C. ATM (At-the-Money) Behavior If ATM call OI rises → bearish If ATM put OI rises → bullish D. Premium Breakout Zones Sharp change in CE or PE premium suggests a trending move starting. 9. Expiry Day Option Chain Analysis Expiry days are different because: Time decay is extreme OI changes rapidly Range-bound behavior is common On expiry: Highest CE + PE OI combination often predicts the max pain level (where sellers profit the most) Prices tend to gravitate around this level 10. Max Pain Theory Max Pain = Strike price where option buyers lose maximum money. It is calculated from the option chain. On expiry day, price often moves toward max pain. 11. Option Chain for Swing and Positional Trading Positional traders use: Total OI across all strikes IV trends Monthly expiry data Support/resistance based on long-term OI If Put OI is high for next month → bullish for swing trades. If Call OI dominates → bearish. 12. Mistakes Traders Make in Option Chain Reading Only checking OI without price action Ignoring IV changes Misinterpreting unwinding phases Trading without considering broader market events Following high OI blindly without confirming by price behavior Option chain should be combined with technical analysis for best results. 13. Practical Example Summary (How a Trader Should Use the Chain) Identify highest PE OI → support Identify highest CE OI → resistance Analyze Change in OI → fresh positions being created Check PCR → market sentiment Observe IV → volatility expectations Track premium movement → strength of buyers or sellers Combine with price action to confirm trend Final Thoughts Option Chain Analysis is a vital skill for traders in index and stock derivatives. It reveals the psychology of option writers, helps identify crucial levels, indicates short-term momentum, and offers insights into market direction. When used properly along with charting tools, it significantly enhances accuracy in intraday, swing, and expiry trading.
Education
by TechnicalExpress
A small correction likelyHerohonda CMP 6174 Gap - since runaway gaps form in the middle of the move, I have used the box to measure it on the right. The same height box on top of it is telling the rally is over. Elliott- since wave 1 and wave 5 are generally equal, mkt geometry is telling the current highs is a potential strong resistance. Composite- the oscillator under the MA cross is very negative. Which is confirming the resistance in price. Conclusion - A three wave abc correction should bring the stock back to 5300. So we are taking about a 15% correction and thats not a lot considering its stupendous rise from the lows. The setup further confirms the correction that we are waiting for.
NSE:HEROMOTOCO
by singh17vivek
Gold 4H – Can XAUUSD reject 4245 before diving into 4140?📈 Market Context Gold rallied as the U.S. dollar closed softer on repriced Fed rate-cut expectations, with market headline flow confirming USD finishes lower and gold rallies on renewed cuts timing debates — a setup that encourages external liquidity raiding before weekly direction is revealed. Forex Factory 4H conditions are classic for liquidity engineering: price trades near balanced mid-range flows, institutions exploit USD weakness into weekly open, and both buyer/seller pools are vulnerable to strategic sweeping before expansion. Expect volatility spikes around U.S. session opens and PMI headline catalysts. 🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View) 🟢 Buy Zone: 4140–4138 SL: 4130 TP targets: 4175 → 4200 → 4220 → 4250 → 4280+ Rationale: • Discount zone beneath 4H liquidity shelf • Demand mitigation + accumulation narrative after sweep 🔴 Sell Zone: 4245–4247 SL: 4255 TP targets: 4220 → 4200 → 4175 → 4150 → 4140 Rationale: • Premium supply above equal-high liquidity • 4H imbalance magnet below waiting to be filled ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS confirmation before entries — avoid blind positioning. • Expect wider spreads and wick manipulation on USD headline releases. • Avoid trading 10–20 minutes before high-impact USD news (PMI, Fed speakers). • Scale partials at each TP level, let runners work only after confirmation is printed. Summary Gold remains in 4H rangebound engineering territory where Smart Money is likely to sweep premium above 4245, deliver a correction to 4140, then seek a validated bullish reaction from discount demand on confirmed USD volatility. Patience and confirmation first. Liquidity always wins. 🚀 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for more weekly SMC setups
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Part 6 Learn Institutional TradingWhy Trade Options? Options offer several strategic advantages: a. Hedging Investors use options to protect their portfolio. For example, buying a put option can insure against a fall in stock prices, similar to buying insurance. b. Speculation Traders can bet on price movements—up, down, or even sideways—using options. c. Income Generation Many traders sell options (covered calls, cash-secured puts) to earn regular premiums. d. Leverage Options allow control of large positions with a relatively small amount of capital.
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by SkyTradingZone
Part 3 Learn Institutional Trading What Are Options? An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price—known as the strike price—before or on a specific date called the expiry. There are two types of options: Call Option – Gives the right to buy an asset. Put Option – Gives the right to sell an asset. The buyer of an option pays a fee called the premium, which is the price of the contract. In India, stock options follow an American-style exercise, allowing early exercise, while index options are European-style, meaning they can only be exercised on expiry day.
Education
by SkyTradingZone
Gold 4H – Liquidity Plays Ahead of Fed Minutes & PMI Data🥇 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Outlook | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold continues to trade inside a controlled 4H consolidation as markets brace for a highly event-driven week: U.S. PMI releases, updated Fed guidance, and renewed debates over the timing of future rate cuts. Recent data has shown mixed momentum — softer employment trends but steady business activity — keeping the dollar volatile and gold reactive near mid-range liquidity. Institutional flows remain cautious, reducing aggressive positioning ahead of major macro catalysts. This environment typically leads to engineered sweeps on both sides of the range as Smart Money hunts liquidity before revealing direction. Expect short-term volatility spikes, especially around U.S. session opens and PMI releases. 🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View) • Price is navigating a minor bearish structure, forming lower highs while protecting deeper liquidity beneath 4020. • The recent 4H BOS + corrective pullback suggests the market may generate a liquidity grab toward the discount zone before any strong bullish leg develops. • A Premium Sell Zone at 4225–4227 sits above resting liquidity, making it an ideal region for stop hunts and short-term distribution. • The Discount Buy Zone at 4010–4008 aligns with structural reaction points, unmitigated demand, and a liquidity shelf — ideal for accumulation. • Mid-range liquidity around 4060–4080 may be swept before the market chooses a larger weekly direction. 🟢 Buy Zone: 4010–4008 SL: 4000 TP targets: 4085 → 4120 → 4175 → 4220 Rationale: • Deep discount zone beneath 4H liquidity • Confluence of demand + structural mitigation • High probability of engineered sweep before bullish expansion 🔴 Sell Zone: 4225–4227 SL: 4235 TP targets: 4175 → 4120 → 4060 → 4015 Rationale: • Premium supply above equal-high liquidity • Favors stop hunt + distribution before correction • Aligns with previous 4H rejection and imbalance fill ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS inside each zone before entering — avoid blind entries. • Expect spreads and liquidity manipulation around news: US PMI, Fed speeches, and data surprises. • Avoid trading 10–20 minutes before high-impact events. • Scale partial profits at each structural target to secure gains and let runners develop. ✅ Summary Gold remains trapped in a structured 4H range where Smart Money is likely to sweep one side before delivering a decisive expansion. Discounted buys at 4010–4008 and premium sells at 4225–4227 remain the highest-probability weekly setups. Stay patient, respect liquidity, and follow confirmation. 🔔 FOLLOW @Ryan_TitanTrader for more weekly SMC setups 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
CADJPY could keep rising furtherOANDA:CADJPY The market has been on a clear upward trajectory for some time, with each swing reaching higher peaks and forming higher lows. The rising trendline has been the driving force behind this momentum. Following the recent surge, the price has pulled back slightly, forming a textbook bullish flag pattern. This is the kind of price action you want to see in a strong uptrend—a controlled retracement with a minor dip, without any aggressive selling pressure. The bears have failed to break the low, and the bullish momentum remains intact. As a result, the overall trend continues to hold steady. Right now, the price is breaking out of the flag pattern, and it looks like this trend is poised to continue. As long as the price stays above the trendline and doesn’t breach the flag's low, my outlook remains bullish. My target is set at 113.150.
Long
by Luiss_Miguel
“GOLD MEGA RALLY: Road to $6,500 — Super-Cycle in Full Power Gold has broken above $4,200/oz, confirming that a super-cycle has officially started. The breakout is not just technical — it is backed by global liquidity, record central-bank demand, and collapsing real yields. My view: Gold is preparing for a parabolic rally toward $6,500 next year, where a major cycle top is likely to form. 🔥 Why Gold Can Hit $6,500 * Liquidity Cycle Turning Up Fed QT slowdown + rising expectations of QE → strongest setup for commodities in a decade. * Historic Central Bank Buying China, India, Middle East are accumulating gold aggressively → long-term supply squeeze. * Inflation Pressure Still Alive Sticky inflation + slowing growth = real yields trending lower → ultra-bullish for gold. * Geopolitical Premium Safe-haven flows accelerating with every global conflict headline
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by sushilrawat
1
Gold H1 – Will 4212 Hold and Drop to 4160 Today?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (27/11) 📈 Market Context Gold is currently trading within a rising institutional channel after strong H1 displacement. The market is compressing into a liquidity-rich consolidation phase — a classic Smart Money trap environment before engineered expansion. What Smart Money desks are targeting today: • Expectation of USD strength shaping bearish bias • Liquidity sweeps above internal range highs • Consolidation fakeouts to induce retail mis-positioning • CHoCH/BOS confirmation required before real directional move The chart shows equal liquidity zones positioned at premium (sell opportunity) and discount (re-entry buy region). 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (H1) Current state = Accumulation / Redistribution phase Liquidity map highlighted zones: • Premium liquidity zone: 4212 – 4214 (target for short trap) • Discount liquidity origin zone: 4165 – 4163 (higher timeframe demand re-entry) • Equilibrium / Chop zone: 4180 – 4195 (no trade unless displaced) • Trendline support: ~4173 region (must break for downside continuation) Expected sequence: Sweep → CHoCH/MSS → BOS → Displacement → Retest (FVG/OB) → Expansion 🎯 Trade Plans for Today 🔴 SELL GOLD 4212 – 4214 | SL 4222 Thesis: Liquidity sweep at premium highs before bearish displacement Entry activation rules (must wait): • Price taps 4214 liquidity pocket • Bearish CHoCH/MSS + BOS down on M5–M15 • Entry taken at FVG fill or order block retest after BOS Targets: 1. 4200 (first reaction) 2. 4187 – 4185 (BOS retest zone) 3. 4170 (channel mid-equilibrium) 4. 4165 – 4163 (H1 demand retest / profit core) 🟢 BUY GOLD 4165 – 4163 | SL 4143 Thesis: Discount origin tap for impulse continuation buy Entry activation rules (must wait): • Price sweeps into 4163 pool • Bullish CHoCH/MSS + BOS up on M5–M15 • Strong bullish rejection wick + FVG fill confirmation Targets: 1. 4185 – 4187 reclaim zone 2. 4200+ institutional expansion target 3. 4212+ premium revisit ⚠️ Risk Management • Avoid trading inside 4180 – 4195 unless displaced • Do NOT interpret sweeps as trend entries — they are traps • SL = structure invalidation, no averaging in consolidation • Reduce size during monetary headlines unless MSS confirms 📝 Summary Gold is currently in engineered liquidity mode. Expect either: • Sweep 4214 → MSS/BOS down → drop into 4163 discount retest, or • Tap 4163 → bullish MSS/BOS up → expand toward 4200 – 4212+ Today = confirmation-based execution only, not trend chasing. 📍 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Part 1 Ride The Big Moves Types of Option Trading Strategies a. Bullish Strategies Long Call – Buy CE Bull Call Spread – Buy CE and Sell higher CE Cash Secured Put – Sell PE with intention to buy shares b. Bearish Strategies Long Put – Buy PE Bear Put Spread – Buy PE and Sell lower PE Covered Call – Sell CE while holding shares c. Neutral Strategies Straddle – Buy both CE and PE Strangle – Buy OTM CE and PE Iron Condor – Sell CE & PE with hedges to capture premium Butterfly Spread – Low risk, limited profit strategy Neutral strategies are popular on weekly expiry days when markets stay range-bound.
NSE:ICICIBANKEducation
by SkyTradingZone