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Weeklymarketsanalysis

18 Jan ’24 — FIIs sold 20000 CR in 2 days, Nifty50 in trouble?Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 191pts ~ 0.88%. This does not seem to showcase what really happened during this week. We hit a new lifetime high of 22124 and then fell 839pts ~ 3.8% in 2 days. Something that we rarely see with Nifty. 16mts chart Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “Yesterday Nifty was at the top end of the ascending channel and today it closed right at the bottom end. From 26th Oct 2023, Nifty has always respected the bottom part of the ascending channel. The next support comes up at 21491 and falling below that would also mean we are breaking the channel.” 4mts chart The gap down ensured we broke the support at 21491. Further price action suggested that we may have some deep cuts today, but strangely Nifty reversed right at 10.00 at 21285 level. Not sure whether it was DIP buying, but we went past the resistance zone of 21491 by 11.59. Nifty did not have enough strength to get back into the ascending channel - but it managed to close near the SR level showing some respite. FIIs sold over 20000 crores of equity over the last 2 days. When was the last time we had this high volume of selling? 20-25k crore is the approx. volume of transactions they do for a whole month - we got that in 2 days. What do they know that we retail traders don't? 63mts chart Today’s price action has confirmed that the channel is broken, but not the support/resistance of 21491. If Nifty trades above 21491 in the morning session - the bears may really feel abandoned. Ideally, the next stop should be 21041 - that was where Nifty bounced off from the trendline on 21st Dec 2023. Our stance continues to be bearish until proven wrong.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
31 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Monthly, Weekly & Daily ExpiryNifty Monthly Analysis In the Aug monthly series, Nifty is down 387pts ~ 1.97%. This month did not produce a reversal signal even though there were 2 attempts on 24th & 30th respectively. As it stands Nifty is following a bearish trend channel quite efficiently. My next support comes at 18880, so if the fall were to accelerate in September, its good to know the next milestone. Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has fallen only 100pts ~ 0.52%. Not something unusual comparing the monthly fall. Interestingly we made an attempt to reverse the trend yesterday - but that got run by a truck today. Nifty Daily Analysis Today’s price action was a continuation of what we had yesterday. If you look at the chart below, it is tough even to make out the separator between yesterday and today. The reason for the fall today may be attributed to the allegations on Adani by Hindenburg along with the OCCRP, a firm funded by George Soros revealing data about a possible insider trading & manipulation. The data available on the public forum is pretty skewed and I personally dont have an opinion on it right now. But of all the rules set by SEBI, the insider trading case is the biggest manipulation that is possible. Once the investigation gets completed and if the claims still stand - it is going to put a real awkward image about India and Indian companies among the FIIs and HNIs. The fall that happened today was nothing in front of what could happen. On a headline level we just fell 0.48% today well within the average true range. But this fall of 93pts took out the hope of bulls to have a reversal. Not only we breached the support of 19310 today, we even took out the swing low of 25th Aug. From tomorrow if we stay as it is, then the horizontal support line of 19310 will no longer be required. All that stays back will be the bearish channel. I wish to change by stance to bearish for tomorrow unless the 19310 resistance is breached.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
MFSL - Perfect bullish chart patternWe are looking weekly chart at this moment. MFSL is looking promising for the upside at the current level. First, the Stock has given the breakout of the long bearish trend line, and after it has given the break-out of the resistance zone. The chart structure is good, keep an eye on it. Disclaimer - I am not a SEBI-registered technical analyst and advisor so contact your financial advisor and make a self-decision. I will not be responsible for any profit or loss.
NSE:MFSLLong
by Gaurav_Kumar01
Nifty 50 Weekly Market Outlook July Week 3, 2023Weekly Review: The Nifty 50 closed at 19,564.5 gaining +1.2% from the previous week. The Index closed on a positive note supported by 150 points rally on Friday overpowering bears majorly supported by a +4.3% rally in the Nifty IT index. The index stayed within a tight range of 19,333-19,516 in the previous week. On Macro Economic front, India's CPI surged to 4.8% in June but stays within the RBI tolerance band of 2-6%, this surge is majorly impacted due to delay in the monsoon which has caused supply shock within markets pushing retail inflation to surge for a short-term period. Weekly Forecasts: On Daily charts, Nifty 50 stayed above the channel bandwidth point of 19,433 with upward momentum. The channel since April 2023 contains almost 97.6% of the price action till the present day and hence the channel bounds for obvious reasons now act as key Support and Resistance levels at 19,125 and 19,756 respectively. Evident from the past week's surge, a sustained move above 19,433-19,500 is expected to push index to 19,673 and 19,756 . On lower levels, I feel 19,333 is the first support level where index can see a sideways movement and a breach below this level can push index to 19,224, 19,125(key support) and 18900 levels . Earnings calendar is keeping the bulls in control. This is evident with a positive reaction in share prices, even with subdued earning of IT giants like Infosys, TCS, Tech Mahindra and Wipro that such growth and numbers are being well factored in the share prices. *Disclaimer*: I am not SEBI registered analyst and hence the above market outlook is for only educational study and research purposes only. In no way do I endorse this opinion to take a trade or for any investments in markets in any form by any Participant. Be a responsible investor with proper risk management and keep learning as a true focus.
NSE:NIFTY
by chandakpulkit