Bullish Momentum in Welspun Specialty Solutions Ltd.Penny Stock with Multiple Channel Breakouts
Details:
Asset: Welspun Special (WELSPUN)
Breakout Level: Sustained move from ₹40 to ₹58 with weekly channel breakouts
Potential Target: Continued upward momentum
Stop Loss: Below current breakout levels or as per risk tolerance
Timeframe: Short to medium-term
Rationale: Despite a minor decline in Y-o-Y net sales for June 2024 (₹162.10 crore, down 0.45%), Welspun Special has shown strong bullish momentum, rising from ₹40 to ₹58 in a few months. The stock is experiencing multiple weekly channel breakouts, indicating continued interest and upward potential.
Market Analysis:
Technical Breakouts: Multiple channel breakouts each week suggest sustained bullish momentum, with the stock steadily climbing despite fluctuations in its financials.
Penny Stock Opportunity: As a penny stock, Welspun Special offers high volatility and upside potential, making it a speculative but attractive play for investors looking to allocate a small portion of their portfolio.
Company Performance: While net sales show a minor decline, the stock's technical pattern and market interest seem to outweigh short-term performance.
Price Target:
The target is open, based on the continued upward trend and multiple breakout patterns. Investors could see further gains beyond ₹58, depending on market conditions and momentum.
Risk Management:
Given that Welspun Special is a penny stock, investing no more than 0.5% of your portfolio is a prudent risk management strategy. This allocation mitigates potential losses while allowing exposure to a high-growth opportunity.
Timeframe:
The timeframe for this idea is short to medium-term, but with potential long-term gains depending on how the stock continues to perform.
Risk-Reward Ratio: With high volatility, the risk-reward ratio should be carefully assessed. Only a small portion of the portfolio should be allocated due to the speculative nature of penny stocks.
As with any high-risk, high-reward investment, perform thorough research and consider risk management strategies before investing in penny stocks like Welspun Special.
Welspun
Welspun Corp could excel in your Investment PortfolioInvestment Advice by Gooodluck Capital (SEBI Registered)
Buy Welspun Corp
NSE:WELCORP
● Buy Range (1) - CMP (current market price)
● Buy Range (2) - 660 - 665
● Buy Range (3) - 620 - 630
● Target - 960 - 970
● Stoploss - below 500
● Potential Return - 50 - 52%
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Approx investment period 18 - 24 months
Company Overview
Welspun Corp Limited manufactures and sells steel pipes, coatings, plates, and coils in the US, Europe, Saudi Arabia, and India. The company offers helically, longitudinally, and electric resistance welded pipes, pig iron and ductile iron pipes, billets, thermo mechanically treated rebars, stainless steel pipes, tubes, and bars. Its products are used in various industries, including oil, gas, water transmission, infrastructure, and defense. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Sector - Iron & Steel
Technical Analysis
(1) In January 2008, the stock faced significant resistance around the 500 level, leading to a substantial price correction.
(2) Over time, it established a support base near the 45 level, from which it began to rebound, climbing back towards the 300 level.
(3) However, the stock struggled to break past the 300 threshold and eventually retreated to its former support.
(4) Following this, it entered an extended phase of consolidation until it finally broke through the 300 level in July 2023.
(5) This pivotal moment propelled the stock into strong upward momentum, culminating in a multi-year breakout at the 500 mark after nearly 16 years.
(6) Subsequently, the stock not only maintained this breakout level but has also begun to steadily rise.
Entry, Target & Stop-loss
● Entry with Capital allocation strategy
(1) consider adding 40% of your desired quantity at the current market price.
(2) The second buying opportunity will be in the 660-665 range, where you can also add another 40% of your quantity.
(3) If the price dips to the 620-630 range, that will present the best buying opportunity. Make sure to reserve 20% of your quantity to take advantage of this level.
● Target
Chart analysis indicates a promising upside potential of above 50% for this stock from the current level, with a target around the 960 to 970. There is also a strong likelihood that the stock could exceed this target.
● Stoploss
It is crucial to implement a strict stop-loss below the 500 level, as we anticipate that the stock may encounter challenges if it drops to this point.
Fundamental Analysis
● Stock Valuation ●
(1) Intrinsic Value
➖ The current price-to-earnings ratio for the stock is 14.5.
➖ The median price-to-earnings ratio for the stock over the past year stands at 15.4, while the earnings per share for the trailing twelve months is 45.55.
➖ This leads us to calculate the intrinsic value of the stock as follows: 15.4 * 45.55 is equals to 701.47.
➖ With the current market price hovering around 695, which is below the intrinsic value of 701, it clearly indicates that the stock is considerably undervalued right now.
(2) P/B Ratio
The present PB ratio for this stock stands at 3.06, indicating a slightly high valuation but not reaching overvalued territory.
● Debt Analysis ●
(1) The company's current debt is Rs. 1,949 crore, which is quite minimal compared to its market capitalization of Rs. 17,249 crore.
(2) With a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.35, it’s evident that the debt level is relatively low for this type of capital-intensive business, providing the company with the flexibility to secure additional funding as needed.
(3) A glance at the balance sheet reveals a significant reduction in debt, dropping from Rs. 3,381 crore last year to the current Rs. 1,949 crore.
● Revenue Break-up ●
(1) Product wise break-up
The company generates its revenue through three primary product categories:
➖ HSAW Pipe, which accounts for approximately 76% of the total revenue,
➖ LSAW Pipe, contributing close to 15% of the total revenue,
➖ ERW Pipe, responsible for about 8% of the total revenue.
(2) Location wise break-up
The company derives approximately 54% of its revenue from India. Additionally, Welspun Corp. operates facilities in the USA and Saudi Arabia, contributing around 8.6% and 34.2% to its overall revenue, respectively.
● Profit & Loss Analysis ●
(1) Over the past three years, this stock has achieved an outstanding compounded annual growth rate of 34% in sales.
(2) The cumulative profit increase over the past three years has been an impressive 21%, indicating a strong upward trend.
(3) The profit margin has seen a significant boost, rising to 9% from 5% YoY.
For the fiscal year 2024, the growth in earnings per share is striking, skyrocketing to 42.41 from 7.90 in fiscal year 2023.
● Cash Flow Analysis ●
Operating cash flow has seen a remarkable surge, soaring to 1,306 crore from a negative 185 crore in FY23.
● Shareholding Pattern ●
(1) As of the June 2024 quarter, the promoters own a notable 50.03% stake in the company.
(2) Goldman Sachs possesses a notable 10.51% share in the company, reflecting a slight decline from 10.70% in March 2024.
(3) Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have reduced their stakes since the previous quarter, yet they still hold over 9%, which remains quite significant.
● Conclusion ●
The steel industry in India is set for expansion, bolstered by new government initiatives. Lower import duties on essential raw materials, combined with heightened public investment in infrastructure and housing, are anticipated to greatly enhance the sector's performance. Therefore, we are excited to see how Welspun Corp will thrive in the near future.
WELSPUNIND | Small Correction PossibleI would exit stock if I was holding it and reenter after correction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is solely for educational purposes and does not make me a SEBI registered analyst.
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WELSPUN INDIA LOOKS GREAT ON CHART.Welspun India has been forming a rectangle pattern for a year. It broke out recently, went up, and then retraced to its old resistance. This is a good chance for me because that resistance could now become support. The company's earnings and sales have been impressive, making it a promising option for a swing trade.
We can target a 12% gain from the current level while setting a 10% stop loss. This setup offers a balanced risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1 for the trade.
Note- Do your own analysis, I am not SEBI registered.
welspun corpWelspun Corp is a globally recognized leader in the manufacturing and supply of large-diameter pipes for the oil and gas industry.
The company specializes in producing high-quality line pipes, including submerged arc welded (SAW) and helical submerged arc welded (HSAW) pipes.
Welspun Corp has a strong global presence, with manufacturing facilities and sales offices strategically located across multiple continents.
The company's advanced manufacturing capabilities and adherence to stringent quality standards have earned it a reputation for reliability and excellence in the industry.
Welspun Corp is committed to sustainability and environmental stewardship, implementing initiatives to reduce its carbon footprint and promote responsible practices.
short term pic Welspun is the wealth creatorWelspun is the good one the from textiles ,This stock as per my knowledge and technically give good results in short term and long run also.
technical reason: in weekly time frame take a support from 0.618 (122) fib retracement, in daily time frame take support with trendline and form the good demand zone 122-116,
fundamental: this one fundamentally also good and consistently growing in sales and financially
[SHORT-TERM STOCK] BUY WELSPUNWelspun India looks good buy at 155 - 150 levels for the marked targets on the chart in the short term.
To motivate me, Please like the idea If you agree with the analysis.
Happy Trading!
InvestPro India Team
WELSPUN INDIA -HOLD/BUY on DipsWELSPUN INDIA
Good uptrend.
Alert: Overbought Zone
We might see a slight fall can buy on Dips - strong support 143 level
1st Target: 162
2nd Target: 165
Since its broken its all time high - We need to wait and see if its a false alert
WELSPUN INDIA RESISTANCE AND TRENDLINE BREAKOUTWelspun India technicals and Fundamentals looks good on both fronts, and the company can see subsequent growth in revenues in near future bcoz of govt supporting policies to textile industries as well as ease in covid restrictions will directly benefit Welspun, as it's a good chunk of revenue, comes from Hospitality Industry.
I have mentioned the Target Price of stock as per Fibonacci levels and P/E of a stock.
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WELSPUN INDIA NSE:WELSPUNIND
Market already take support on the support line itself and showing green candle which is clear indication of taking a position of long. Profit target will be 169 to 170 rupees and stop loss order you can put on 119 rupees.
Welspun India - LongWelspun India - Long
Buy : ₹ 106 - ₹ 102.85
Target: ₹ 110, ₹ 115, ₹119.60
Support: ₹ 96.30 , ₹ 102.85
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**Disclaimer:
I am NOT a SEBI registered consultant/Advisor. It is completely my view and opinion.
My intention is not to provide any financial advice, training advice, or any type of advices or any recommendations on stock/Forex/Coin buying or selling.
Please do your own research and consult with your financial advisor before taking any action.
I am not responsible for any of your action on buying or selling or holding the above mentioned stock or/and index or/and Forex or/and coins .
***
WELSPUN CORP-Crude Oil Rise BeneficiaryRiding the Parallel Channel , it is close to the bottom of the channel where a reversal is expected.
Support of 50 MA just under it.
Expected : MACD crossover and RSI breakout and Price breakout.
Apart from this Crude oil chart is expected to give a massive breakout.
Welspun Corp - Medium term investment viewWelspun Corp has taken support on lower trend line on the weekly charts. Buying could be initiated in 133-136 zone. It is still trading in a channel. First Target would be 165 (approx 20 percent from current levels) . A weekly close above 165 could take the stock to 185/199 levels.