Get started

X-indicator

XAUUSD – Brian | H3 Technical AnalysisGold continues to trade within a well-defined bullish structure on the H3 timeframe, supported by strong technical momentum. Price action remains orderly, with impulsive advances followed by controlled pullbacks — a characteristic of a healthy trending market. From a macro standpoint, geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated after recent comments from President Trump regarding increased U.S. control over strategic military areas in Greenland. While not implying direct occupation, the development adds to broader risk sensitivity and continues to support gold’s role as a defensive asset. Market Structure & Technical Context (H3) On the H3 chart, XAUUSD remains firmly above its rising trendline, with market structure defined by higher highs and higher lows. A prior break of structure (BOS) confirmed bullish continuation and opened the door for further expansion. Key technical areas highlighted on the chart: A strong impulsive leg followed by corrective pullbacks, consistent with trend continuation. Fibonacci expansion with the 2.618 extension near the 5005 zone, acting as a major reaction area. A liquidity pullback zone around 4825, aligned with trendline support and suitable for continuation scenarios. A lower POC / value area acting as deeper support if volatility increases. As long as price holds above these demand zones, the broader bullish structure remains intact. Liquidity & Forward Expectations Upside liquidity remains available above recent highs, while short-term pullbacks are likely driven by profit-taking rather than structural weakness. The 5000–5005 area represents a key decision zone where price may pause or consolidate before the next directional move. Trading Bias Primary bias: Bullish continuation while structure holds Key zones to monitor: 4825 – liquidity pullback / trend continuation 5000–5005 – major extension & reaction zone Preferred timeframe: H1–H4 Risk management remains essential, particularly in a market sensitive to sudden news flows. Refer to the accompanying chart for a detailed view of market structure, liquidity zones, and Fibonacci extensions. Follow the TradingView channel to receive early updates and join the discussion on market structure and price action.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Weekly Analysis of BTC - Detailed Another week and price still moved as expected in same range. No major view change since last prediction for long term trades. Further short-term view. Week is closed bearish and may target recent draw on liquidities of ~84K. Price may move in choppy mode for some time. So, the best idea is to look for small trade rather than long swing trades. As the market in rangebound/Choppy, so we should keep eye on both side Opps but focus on down side as next high-level draw on liquidity is at downside. Refer previous details below for larger perspective… We analysed three weeks back that BTC would be in range for some time before taking any further move, And BTC is following same analysis and trapped within a small range since then. BTC prediction of last week also worked perfectly well and market kept in consolidation mode itself. BTC is still in consolidation zone and may spend some more days. It may develop ABC pattern or reversal at identified daily FVG level, if price has to change its delivery and take turn from here. This zone is kind of make or break. If price is not able to sustain and breakdown, then it may witness ~65-70K levels as well. We hope for reversal from this level as price is developing the pattern at higher time frame. 1. Price has taken liquidity or 82K and almost touched 80K. 2. It has inversed 1Day FVG and now price is consolidating in the range between EMAs. 3. We may expect price retracement till 1D iFVG and then reversal. 4. Before to that we may see sweep of 92900 (1D CISD) level and then a retracement short trade till 1D FVG 5. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF. 6. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (5m/15m) at FVG zone. 7. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF All these combinations are signalling a high probability trade scenario. Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas. Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
DELTAIN:BTCUSD.P
by HareeyMarketMantraah
Nifty weekly analysis - Detailed Last week Nifty had strong downfall of ~3% because of various factors including global events and selling of FIIs. Week closed with a strong bearish candle with heavy volume showing further downside pressure targeting near draw on liquidity of ~24600. This level has highest volume, which will act as magnet for price. Order flow is also downside creating lower highs. Currently price is inside weekly price imbalance zone and at a psychological number of 25000. So, we can expect a pause at this level for few days. So next week may go in range bound mode to bearish. Over all sentiments are bearish until there is a big positive change appears in global politics. Critical points ………………. • Support zone: 24,580–25,050 • Resistance zone: 25,550–25,600 • Bias: Range-bound to mildly bearish for the coming week. 1. If breakout support with volume we may see 24600 levels soon. Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas. Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTY
by HareeyMarketMantraah
BTCUSD Daily Chart – Corrective Phase with Potential Trendline BPrice Structure: Bitcoin is trading around $88,800, coming off a strong rejection from the $95k–$97k area. The broader structure since November shows a downtrend transitioning into consolidation, with recent price action respecting a rising diagonal trendline support (blue dashed line). Price is currently testing this trendline, making this a decision zone. Trend & Key Levels: Immediate Support: $87,500 – $88,000 (trendline + recent swing lows) Major Support: $83,000 – $85,000 (range bottom / demand zone) Immediate Resistance: $91,000 – $92,500 Major Resistance: $95,000 – $100,000 RSI (14): RSI is around 41.7, below the 50 midline but above oversold. This suggests weak momentum, yet not exhaustion. No strong bullish divergence is confirmed yet, but downside momentum is slowing. Awesome Oscillator (AO): AO remains negative, though histogram bars are flattening. This indicates bearish momentum is losing strength, not yet reversed. MACD (12,26,9): MACD is still below the zero line with a bearish crossover, but the histogram is contracting. This often precedes either sideways consolidation or a potential bullish reversal if price holds support. Overall Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish if the trendline holds. A daily close below $87k would invalidate the trendline and open the door toward $83k–$80k. A strong bounce with volume could target $92k → $95k initially. Scenario Outlook: Bullish Scenario: Trendline holds → RSI curls up → MACD histogram flips positive → move toward $95k+ Bearish Scenario: Trendline breaks → increased selling pressure → retest of $83k support zone Conclusion: BTC is at a critical inflection point. Momentum indicators are weak but stabilizing, suggesting a possible short-term bounce, though confirmation requires a strong bullish daily close above $91k. Until then, expect choppy price action near support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
Trading with an Automated System (Algorithmic Trading)1. What Is an Automated Trading System? An automated trading system is a software-based framework that automatically places buy and sell orders in the market without manual intervention. The trader or developer defines a strategy, converts it into a set of logical rules, and programs these rules into the system. Once activated, the system continuously monitors market conditions and executes trades whenever the predefined criteria are met. For example, a simple automated strategy might be: Buy when the 20-day moving average crosses above the 50-day moving average. Sell when the reverse crossover occurs. The system follows this logic exactly, without emotions or hesitation. 2. How Automated Trading Works Automated trading generally follows a structured workflow: Strategy Design The trader defines a trading idea based on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, quantitative models, or statistical patterns. Rule Definition The idea is converted into precise rules, such as entry price, exit price, stop-loss, position size, and time filters. Backtesting The strategy is tested on historical data to evaluate performance, drawdowns, win rate, and risk metrics. Optimization Parameters are adjusted carefully to improve performance without overfitting to past data. Deployment The strategy is connected to a broker or exchange through APIs and runs in real-time. Monitoring and Risk Control Even automated systems require supervision to handle errors, slippage, or abnormal market conditions. 3. Types of Automated Trading Strategies Automated systems can be classified into several categories: Trend-Following Systems Use moving averages, breakouts, or momentum indicators to ride market trends. Mean Reversion Systems Assume prices revert to an average and trade overbought or oversold conditions. Arbitrage Systems Exploit price differences between markets, exchanges, or instruments. High-Frequency Trading (HFT) Execute a large number of trades in milliseconds, focusing on very small price movements. Statistical and Quantitative Models Use probability, correlation, and mathematical models to identify trading opportunities. AI and Machine Learning Systems Adapt strategies dynamically using pattern recognition, sentiment analysis, and predictive modeling. 4. Advantages of Automated Trading Automated trading offers several powerful benefits: a. Emotion-Free Trading Human emotions like fear, greed, and hesitation often lead to poor decisions. Automated systems follow rules strictly, ensuring discipline and consistency. b. Speed and Efficiency Computers can scan multiple markets and execute trades in fractions of a second, something impossible for manual traders. c. Backtesting and Validation Strategies can be tested on years of historical data, helping traders understand potential risks and returns before risking real capital. d. Scalability One system can trade multiple instruments, timeframes, and markets simultaneously. e. Consistency The same strategy is executed in exactly the same way every time, removing randomness in decision-making. 5. Risks and Limitations of Automated Trading Despite its advantages, automated trading is not risk-free: a. Over-Optimization (Curve Fitting) A strategy may perform extremely well on historical data but fail in live markets because it was too finely tuned to the past. b. Market Changes Markets evolve due to regulations, liquidity shifts, or macroeconomic events. A strategy that worked earlier may stop working. c. Technical Failures Internet outages, server crashes, software bugs, or broker API issues can cause losses. d. False Sense of Security Automation can make traders complacent. Continuous monitoring and risk management are still essential. e. Black Swan Events Extreme events like flash crashes or geopolitical shocks can break normal market behavior, leading to unexpected losses. 6. Risk Management in Automated Trading Risk management is the backbone of any successful automated system: Position Sizing Rules limit exposure per trade. Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Levels control downside and lock profits. Maximum Drawdown Limits pause or shut down the system if losses exceed acceptable levels. Diversification across strategies, assets, and timeframes reduces overall risk. Kill Switches allow traders to immediately stop trading during abnormal conditions. Without strong risk controls, even the best algorithm can fail. 7. Automated Trading vs Manual Trading Manual trading relies on human judgment, discretion, and experience. Automated trading relies on logic, data, and execution speed. Manual trading is flexible but emotionally vulnerable. Automated trading is disciplined but rigid. Many professionals use a hybrid approach, where humans design and supervise strategies while machines execute them. 8. Who Uses Automated Trading? Automated trading is used by: Retail traders using platforms like MetaTrader, NinjaTrader, or Python-based systems. Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms. Investment banks and market makers. Exchanges and liquidity providers. With advancing technology, automated trading is no longer limited to institutions; retail participation is growing rapidly. 9. Technology Behind Automated Trading Key components include: Programming Languages (Python, C++, Java, Pine Script) Trading Platforms and APIs Market Data Feeds Cloud and Low-Latency Servers Databases and Analytics Tools The quality of data and execution infrastructure plays a crucial role in long-term success. 10. Future of Automated Trading The future of automated trading lies in: Greater use of AI and machine learning Integration of alternative data like news, social media, and satellite data More adaptive and self-learning systems Increased regulation and risk oversight Wider adoption among retail traders Automation will not eliminate human traders but will continue to augment human decision-making. Conclusion Trading with an automated system represents a powerful evolution in financial markets. By combining logic, speed, and discipline, automated trading can enhance consistency and efficiency while reducing emotional errors. However, it is not a “set and forget” solution. Success depends on robust strategy design, realistic expectations, continuous monitoring, and strong risk management. When used wisely, automated trading can be a valuable tool for traders and investors seeking systematic and scalable participation in modern markets.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TechnicalExpress
HINDCOPPER 1 Week VIew 📊 Current Price Snapshot Live/Recent price: ~₹535–₹538 per share on NSE for this week. 52-week range: Low ~₹183.8 — High ~₹576.0; stock remains elevated near recent multi-week highs. 📈 Short-Term Resistance Levels (1-Week View) These are the price zones where the stock may find selling pressure or pause its upside: • Immediate Resistance: ~₹550–₹551 — first hurdle this week. • Next Resistance: ~₹564–₹565 — pivot/resistance area seen on pivot calculations. • Higher Resistance / Near-term Target: ~₹573–₹578 — extended resistance zone above. Bullish scenario (this week): A sustained move above ~₹550–₹565 could open room for tests of the ₹573–₹578 zone. 📉 Short-Term Support Levels (1-Week View) • Immediate Support: ~₹526–₹527 — first near-term floor. • Secondary Support: ~₹518–₹520 — next demand zone if price weakens. • Deeper Short-Term Support: ~₹503–₹505 — more structural support on pullbacks. Bearish scenario (this week): A break and close below ~₹518–₹520 on a weekly basis may put pressure on the trend and open tests toward the deeper support band near ₹503–₹505. 📅 Weekly Strategy Levels (Summary) Level Type Price Area (₹) Immediate Resistance 550–551 Next Resistance 564–565 Extended Resistance 573–578 Immediate Support 526–527 Secondary Support 518–520 Deeper Support 503–505
NSE:HINDCOPPERLong
by TechnicalExpress
BTC at decision pointThe Big Picture I’ve been analyzing the 23-hour time frame because it gives a much clearer view of the trend without all the "noise" and manipulation you see on the standard daily chart. After that massive run-up, BTC has been cooling off, and I’m looking to see if our previous support at $86,000 is going to hold or if we’re going deeper. My Trade Plan Right now, the 4-hour chart isn't showing much, but the 1-hour and 15-minute charts are telling a different story. Here’s how I’m playing this: The Short Opportunity: The 15-minute chart is already looking pretty bearish. If the current support level breaks, I expect the price to flush down toward the $85,000 – $85,800 zone. If we cross that line, I’m planning to short with 25x–30x leverage to capture that move down. The Long Opportunity: I’m only looking to go long if we see a definitive bounce right here. I’m not going to guess the bottom—I’ll wait for the market to show me it wants to move back up first. Final Thoughts I’m leaning toward the bearish side for the moment, but I’m staying patient. I’ll let the price come to my level, and once that support breaks or holds, I’ll take the trade. Let me know what you think of this setup in the comments. Good luck with your trades!
DELTAIN:BTCUSD.P
by VhatkarPratap
ICICI Bank | Range Compression → Decision ZoneICICI Bank is currently trading inside a tightening range, supported by a rising trendline from below and capped by a declining trendline from above. This structure suggests volatility compression, often followed by a directional move. 🔍 Technical View: • Rising trendline acting as immediate support (~₹1,335–1,345) • Falling trendline acting as overhead resistance (~₹1,420–1,440) • Price holding above demand zone but lacking momentum • Breakout or breakdown likely soon 📌 Scenarios to Watch: ✅ Bullish: Sustained close above ₹1,440 → move toward ₹1,500+ ❌ Bearish: Breakdown below ₹1,330 → retest of ₹1,280–1,250 📊 Key Levels: • Resistance: ₹1,420–1,440 • Support: ₹1,345 / ₹1,330 / ₹1,280 📌 Bias: Neutral | Trade only on confirmation ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational purpose only. Not financial advice. #ICICIBank #DecisionZone #RangeBound #StockMarketIndia #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #BankingStocks
NSE:ICICIBANK
by mr-nm_0123
Intraday Institutions Trading Option Pricing – How Premium Moves Factors affecting premium Underlying price movement. Volatility levels (IV). Time remaining for expiry. Demand–supply and liquidity. Strike price distance from spot. How premium reacts If underlying moves towards strike → premium increases. If underlying moves away from strike → premium decreases. Sharp move + low IV = huge premium expansion. Sideways market = premium decay. Before major events = IV rise → premium rise. After events = IV crush → premium collapse.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
9
Part 4 Techical Analysis Vs. Institutional Option TradingBuying Options – Explained in Points Benefits of Buying Options Limited risk, unlimited reward. Small premium, large exposure. Suitable for trending markets. Ideal for news-driven moves (budget, RBI meetings, earnings, US data). Great for breakout trading. Risks of Buying Options Time decay eats premium quickly. Market can trap buyers in fake breakouts. High volatility inflates premium (overpriced). Reversal or sideways movement leads to loss. When to Buy Options Strong trend confirmed by price action. Big volume breakout from key levels. Market structure showing BOS (Break of Structure). Low IV environment (premiums cheaper). When a catalyst event can trigger trending movement.
NSE:ASIANPAINTEducation
by SkyTradingZone
8
XAUUSD – H1: Strong UptrendXAUUSD – H1 Technical Outlook: Extension Risk Near Highs as Geopolitical Tension Builds | Lana ✨ Gold continues to trade in a strong bullish structure, with price pushing higher along an ascending trendline. However, as the market approaches upper resistance zones, price action suggests the rally may be entering a more sensitive phase, where extension risk and volatility increase. 📈 Market Structure & Price Action The short-term trend remains bullish, with price respecting the rising trendline. Recent price action shows strong impulsive buying, followed by shallow pullbacks — a sign of aggressive demand. However, price is now trading near the upper boundary of the trend channel, where upside continuation often becomes less efficient and more reactive. The current structure favors continuation, but risk increases as price stretches further from value. 🔍 Key Technical Zones on H1 Immediate resistance / reaction zone: 4987 – 5000 This area represents a short-term ceiling where price may hesitate or form a temporary consolidation. Sell zone (extension area): 5053 – 5070 A premium zone where upside becomes increasingly extended and profit-taking or corrective reactions are more likely. Key support & value zones below: 4663 – 4629 (prior acceptance + structural support) 4595 – 4570 (deeper value area aligned with Fibonacci retracement) These lower zones remain important reference points if price transitions from extension into correction. 🎯 Trading Scenarios Primary scenario (bullish continuation): If price consolidates above 4987 and accepts higher, the market may extend into the 5053–5070 zone. Any move into this area should be monitored closely for exhaustion signals rather than late breakout chasing. Alternative scenario (pullback into structure): Failure to hold above 4987–5000 could trigger a corrective move back toward 4663–4629, where buyers may look to re-engage at better value. Lana prefers waiting for reactions at key zones, not chasing price when it is already extended. 🌍 Geopolitical Context (Why Volatility Matters Now) Recent reports indicate that the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has entered the Indian Ocean, with expectations of moving toward the Arabian Sea in the coming days. The increased U.S. military presence in the Middle East, amid concerns of potential escalation involving Iran, adds a layer of geopolitical uncertainty. Historically, such developments tend to: Increase short-term volatility in gold Support gold as a hedge, while also triggering sharp profit-taking swings This backdrop reinforces the importance of risk management and patience, especially when price is trading near premium zones. 🧠 Lana’s Perspective Gold remains bullish, but not every bullish phase is a good place to buy. As price trades higher into premium and extension zones, Lana focuses on structure, value, and reaction, not emotional momentum. ✨ Respect the trend, manage extension risk, and let price come to your levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Part 2 Techical Analysis Vs. Institutional Option Trading Key Terminologies in Option Trading Strike Price – The pre-decided price at which you get the right to buy or sell. Premium – Amount you pay to buy an option. Spot Price – Current market price of the underlying. Intrinsic Value – Actual value of an option if exercised now. Time Value – Extra premium due to time left until expiry. OTM (Out of The Money) – No intrinsic value; cheaper premiums. ATM (At The Money) – Strike closest to current market price. ITM (In The Money) – Has intrinsic value; expensive premiums. Expiry – Last date on which the option is valid. Lot Size – Minimum number of units per option contract.
NSE:TATASTEELEducation
by SkyTradingZone
15
Part 2 Support and Resistance What Is an Option? – Simple Explanation An option is a financial contract that gives you a right, but not an obligation. You pay a small price (called premium) to get this right. There are two types of options: Call Option (CE) and Put Option (PE). Call Option gives you the right to BUY the asset at a fixed price before expiry. Put Option gives you the right to SELL the asset at a fixed price before expiry. If you are a buyer, your risk is limited to the premium you paid. If you are a seller, your profits are limited but your risks can be unlimited. Options are available for multiple expiries: weekly, monthly, and quarterly. Premium changes based on market demand, volatility, and time remaining for expiry. Option trading requires understanding of how price reacts at key levels like demand/supply zones, volume clusters, and option chain levels.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
UJJIVANSFB: Testing IPO High with Triple Top, Chart of the MonthFrom IPO Highs to Recovery: Is Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Finally Breaking Out After Six Years? After Posting Robust Q3 FY26 Numbers with asset quality improving and Micro Finance Cycle Turning Back. Let's Analyze in "Chart of the Month" As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. Price Action: - Current Price: ₹63.06 - 52-Week High: ₹68.00 - 52-Week Low: ₹13.90 - Distance from All-Time High: Approaching IPO highs after prolonged consolidation Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Characteristics: - Base Period (2020-2023): Subdued volumes indicating consolidation - Breakout Period (2024-present): Notable volume expansion - Recent spike visible in January 2026 showing institutional participation - Current volume: 442.36M (significantly above 20-day average of 271.01M) - Volume surge of 63% suggests strong conviction in the breakout Volume-Price Relationship: - Price advance accompanied by rising volume - bullish confirmation - No negative divergences observed - Accumulation visible during base formation with sporadic volume spikes Base Formation & Major Patterns: Rounding Bottom Pattern (2020-2025): - The stock has carved out a massive rounding bottom base spanning approximately 5 years - The blue curved trendline marks the U-shaped recovery trajectory - Base Formation Period: Mid-2020 to Late-2024 - Base Depth: From ₹65-68 levels down to ₹13.90 (approximately 80% decline) - This extended consolidation suggests thorough distribution at lower levels and strong accumulation Cup and Handle Formation: - A textbook cup & Handle pattern is visible in the 2019-2025 period - Left rim formed in early 2024 at ₹65 - Cup bottom at ₹30-35 range (2024-2025) - Right rim currently forming at ₹63-68 levels - Handle consolidation occurred during late 2025 Support & Resistance Levels: Major Resistance Zones: - R1 (Immediate): ₹65.00-68.00 (IPO highs) - This level may act triple top resistance (2020, 2024, 2026) - Critical breakout zone - sustained move above this unlocks higher targets - R2 (Psychological): ₹70.00 - R3 (Extension Target): ₹85-90 (measured move from base) Major Support Levels: - S1 (Immediate): ₹55.00-58.00 (recent breakout zone) - S2 (Strong): ₹45.00-48.00 (rounding bottom neckline) - S3 (Critical): ₹30.00-35.00 (2024-2025 lows, base support) Trend Analysis: Long-Term Trend: - The stock was in a prolonged downtrend from 2020 to 2022 - Transitioned into consolidation/basing phase from 2022 to 2024 - Currently attempting to reverse into an uptrend as of late 2025/early 2026 Medium-Term Trend: - Strong uptrend established from November 2024 onwards - Higher highs and higher lows pattern intact - Moving along the upper channel of the rounding bottom Short-Term Momentum: - Explosive momentum in January 2026 (+19% move) - Stock attempting to reclaim IPO highs for the second time - Price action suggests breakout on cards from 6-year consolidation Key Technical Observations: Breakout Attempt #2 - This is the "2nd time to break IPO Highs" - First attempt in early 2024 failed, leading to a correction - Current attempt appears stronger with better fundamentals and volume support - Risk of triple top failure exists if price fails at ₹65-68 zone again Risks & Triple Top Persistence: - The ₹65-68 zone has proven to be formidable resistance over 6 years - Three distinct peaks at this level (2020, 2024, 2026) create triple top risk - A decisive close above ₹68 with sustained volume would negate this pattern - Failure here could lead to another correction toward ₹45-48 support Fundamental & Sectoral Backdrop: Recent Financial Performance (Q3 FY26): Profitability Metrics: - Net Profit: ₹186 crore (up 71% YoY from ₹109 crore) - Sequential Growth: 53% QoQ from ₹121.72 crore in Q2 FY26 - Nine-Month Performance: ₹411 crore (down 36% YoY) - signals recovery from challenging period - Net Interest Income: ₹1,000 crore (all-time high, up 12.8% YoY) - Interest Earned: ₹1,752 crore (all-time high, up 16.12% YoY) Balance Sheet Growth: - Gross Loan Book: ₹37,057 crore (up 21.6% YoY) - Total Deposits: ₹42,223 crore (up 22.4% YoY) - Disbursements: ₹8,293 crore (highest ever quarterly disbursements) - Credit-Deposit Ratio: 88% (healthy and stable) - CASA Ratio: 27.3% (up from 25.1% YoY) Asset Quality Improvement: - Gross NPA: 2.45% (improved from 2.68% in December 2024) - Current position better than historical average of 4.84% - Portfolio at Risk (PAR): 3.98% (down from 4.44% QoQ and 5.36% YoY) - Provisions: ₹195 crore (down from ₹235 crore in Q2, signaling improvement) - Micro banking collection efficiency: 99.70% (December 2025) Business Strategy & Positioning: Portfolio Diversification: - Shift from unsecured microfinance to secured lending - Secured portfolio: ₹17,829 crore (up 48.8% YoY), now 48.1% of total book - Growth in housing loans, MSME finance, gold loans, vehicle loans, and agri loans - Microfinance exposure reducing as part of risk mitigation strategy Target Market: - Focus on financially underserved segments - Mass market banking for economically active poor customers - Operating since 2005 (as NBFC), became Small Finance Bank in 2017 - Strong presence in rural and semi-urban markets Growth Drivers: - Record quarterly disbursements driven by all-around performance - Unsecured and secured products both contributing - Digital transformation initiatives underway - Branch network expansion supporting deposit mobilization Key Concerns: - Nine-month profit decline of 36% YoY raises sustainability questions - Non-operating income constituted 121% of PBT in Q3 (concerning dependency) - Stretched valuations with limited margin for error - Success hinges on sustaining Q3 momentum Small Finance Bank Sector Outlook: Industry Growth Trajectory: - SFB sector growing at 20-25% CAGR - Total advances projected to exceed ₹2 trillion by FY26 - Deposits reached ₹3.15 lakh crore in FY25 - Expected to grow to ₹3.77 lakh crore in FY26 Regulatory Environment: - RBI reduced priority sector lending norms from 75% to 60% in June 2025 - Provides greater flexibility for credit diversification - Pathway to universal banking license for qualifying SFBs - AU Small Finance Bank received approval for universal bank transition they can do it too Sector Challenges: - Asset quality stress in microfinance portfolios across sector is Improving - GNPA in microfinance segment spiked to 6.8% in FY25 from 3.2% in FY24 - High operating costs (5.5% of assets vs 2% for broader banking sector) - Net Interest Margins declining sector-wide (from 7.4% to 6.6%) - Modest CASA ratios (26.2% average) leading to higher cost of funds - Return on Assets dropped from 2.1% to 1.0% in FY25 across SFBs Competitive Landscape: - Competition from commercial banks, fintech lenders, NBFCs - Pressure on margins due to intense competition - Need for continuous digital transformation - Branch-intensive operating model with mandated rural presence Microfinance Industry Trends: Market Size & Growth: - Microfinance sector loan portfolio: ₹3.48 lakh crore (as of December 2024) - Expected to reach ₹5 lakh crore by FY27 - Serving over 8 crore clients across India - Sector contributes 2-3% to India's GVA Recent Developments: - 80% growth in loan disbursals in recent periods - Digital transformation accelerating across industry - Focus on financial literacy programs - RBI regulatory changes providing operational flexibility - Asset quality challenges persist with over-leveraging concerns Risk Factors: - Vulnerable to regional economic shocks - Weather-dependent borrower segments - Competition from traditional banks entering microfinance space - Regulatory compliance requirements - Portfolio concentration risks in certain geographies Risk Assessment: Technical Risks: - Triple top pattern risk at ₹65-68 resistance zone - Failure to decisively break IPO highs could trigger profit booking - Potential pullback to ₹48-55 support if breakout fails - Overextended short-term momentum Fundamental Risks - Sustainability of Q3 profit recovery remains unproven - High reliance on non-operating income - Microfinance asset quality pressures sector-wide - Operating cost structure higher than traditional banks - Modest CASA ratio impacting cost of funds Sector Risks: - Regulatory changes impacting business model - Competition intensifying from multiple fronts - Economic slowdown could impact borrower repayment capacity - Regional concentration exposing to local risks Bull Case Scenario: - Successful breakout above ₹68 - Strong Q3 FY26 results indicate operational turnaround - Asset quality improvement trajectory well-established - Secured lending mix improving risk profile - Potential universal banking license in future - Sectoral tailwinds from financial inclusion drive Bear Case Scenario: - Failure at ₹65-68 resistance for third time - Nine-month profit decline raises sustainability concerns - Sector-wide margin compression continues - Asset quality deterioration in microfinance segment - High operating costs pressuring profitability - Regulatory headwinds or policy changes My 2 Cents: NSE:UJJIVANSFB presents an interesting technical setup the stock is at a critical juncture - attempting to break out from a 6-year consolidation. Success above ₹68 could unlock significant upside, while failure creates triple top risk. The fundamental improvement supports the technical breakout attempt, but sustainability remains a key question mark given the nine-month profit decline. Full Coverage on my Mid-Week Newsletter coming Wednesday. Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:UJJIVANSFBLong
by Karanshah137
12
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bullish Continuation Toward Premium Zone🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown Market Structure: Clear bullish structure with higher highs & higher lows intact ✔️ Trendline: Price continues to respect the ascending trendline, confirming strong upside momentum 📈 Breakouts: Multiple confirmed bullish breakouts from consolidation and range zones 🔓 Volume: Strong bullish volume expansion during impulsive moves, validating institutional participation 💥 POI (Point of Interest): Repeated reactions from POI zones, acting as reliable demand areas 🎯 Pivot Point: The green pivot zone is holding as dynamic support after the pullback 🟩 Pullback: Current retracement is corrective and healthy, indicating accumulation before continuation 🔄 🎯 Targets & Trade Projection Primary Target (TP1): 🟢 4,850 – 4,860 Extended Target (TP2): 🟢 4,890 – 4,920 (premium supply / liquidity zone) Bullish Continuation Zone: Grey consolidation box → expected higher-low formation then expansion ⬆️ 🛑 Invalidation / Risk Level Bias invalidated below: ❌ 4,740 – 4,720 (High Pivot / trendline break) ✨ Trade Bias: Bullish Continuation 📍 Strategy: Buy pullbacks above pivot | Hold longs while trendline holds 📌 Key Message: As long as GOLD holds above the pivot point + rising trendline, the path of least resistance remains upward toward the marked targets 🚀💰
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Pipshunter27
2
HINDCOPPER 1 Day Time Frame 📈 Current/Last Traded Price (Daily): • ₹535.90 — Last traded price on the NSE, showing a positive move on the day. • Change on day: approx +0.7% to +0.72% from previous close. 📊 Intraday Price Action: • Open: ₹544.00 • Previous Close: ₹532.05 • High (today): ~₹555.95 • Low (today): ~₹532.50 • VWAP (average traded price): ~₹546.34 📉 1‑Day Movement Summary: Today’s price action suggests a mild bullish bias, with price bouncing off the previous close and holding above ₹530 intraday, but also showing some resistance near the mid‑550s range. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Today: • Support: ~₹532–₹535 (intraday low/previous close area) • Resistance: ~₹555–₹560 (intraday high zone) 📊 Other Notes: • Price remains well above recent 52‑week lows (~₹184) and closer to recent highs (~₹576), indicating strong positive momentum over the past few months.
NSE:HINDCOPPERLong
by Knowledgehub
XAUUSD – Next Week Could Be Gold’s True Breakout MomentOver the past week, the market has shown something very different: Gold is no longer behaving like a typical safe-haven asset — it is trading as a fully accepted trend at a new price regime. 🔥 Why next week is critical for Gold USD continues to weaken, with DXY sliding toward multi-month lows → a strong tailwind for gold. ATHs are being broken without distribution, signaling institutional acceptance rather than emotional FOMO. Sell pressure at the highs is limited — buyers step in quickly on even shallow pullbacks. 👉 These are classic signs of a trend expansion phase, not a market top. 🧠 Structure perspective (Weekly → H1) Higher-timeframe structure remains clearly bullish (Higher Highs – Higher Lows). Recent pullbacks are rebalancing moves, with no confirmed bearish CHoCH. Weekly demand and IP zones continue to be defended → active smart-money participation. In simple terms: The market is no longer asking “Should we buy gold?” It is asking “Where is the next safe BUY?” 🎯 Primary bias for next week (MMF View) Priority: BUY pullbacks — not chasing ATHs Focus on entries at demand / IP zones. Avoid emotional buys at extension levels; healthy pullbacks are part of strong trends. The bigger picture: 👉 $5,000 is no longer just psychological — it is being technically priced in. ⚠️ What to watch Expect volatility around macro events and Fed expectations. Short-term noise is normal, but only a structural break changes the trend. 🧩 Final takeaway Gold is entering a phase where: ATHs are no longer ceilings, Pullbacks are opportunities, Patience outweighs prediction. In strong trends, traders don’t lose because they’re wrong — they lose because they’re impatient. Next week, the question isn’t “Will gold rise?” 👉 It’s “Can you follow the flow with discipline?”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading