Gold Market In-Depth AnalysisGold Market In-Depth Analysis | A wave of "downtrading" sweeps across the market, poised for a breakout in gold prices
1. A New Market Paradigm: The Rise of the "Downtrading"
A recent report from JPMorgan Chase indicates that retail investors, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), are pouring into alternative assets like gold, creating a "downtrading" trend. Driving factors include:
🛡️ Heightened geopolitical and policy uncertainty
💸 Concerns about "debt devaluation" and government deficits
🌍 Declining confidence in fiat currencies in emerging markets
🔄 Global assets shift away from the US dollar toward diversified allocations
II. Capital Flows and Market Structure
ETF demand explodes
GLD, the world's largest gold ETF, saw a record inflow of 35.2 tons in September
A single-day inflow of 18.9 tons was a record high, indicating accelerated capital inflows
Central bank gold purchases have become normalized
Global official gold reserves have increased by over 1,000 tons per year for three consecutive years
Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset
Speculative positions still have room to grow
CFTC speculative holdings are below their 2016 peak
ETF holdings remain far from their 2020 high, suggesting significant potential for incremental capital
III. Technical Analysis: A shakeout or a reversal? Key Levels
🟢 Support: 3840-3850 (bull-bear watershed) → 3820-3830 (strong support zone)
🔴 Resistance: 3890-3900 (previous high pressure zone)
Trend Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows wide range fluctuations at high levels. Yesterday's sharp drop was more of a wash-out than a trend reversal. Bulls have repeatedly reclaimed 3850 and tested its validity, maintaining the overall bullish trend.📊
IV. Trading Strategy and Risk Control
🎯 Main Strategy: Bullish with a volatile outlook, choose opportune positions
Long Position: Enter the 3860-3855 area, stop-loss at 3848, target 3870 (reduce position) → 3900 (hold if breakout)
Alternative Plan: If the market stabilizes at 3820-3830, re-enter long positions.
Risk Control Warning: A significant break below 3820 indicates short-term weakness, with a target of 3790-3800.
V. Forward Guidance
Data Focus: Another surprise in tonight's ADP and non-farm payroll data could reinforce expectations of a rate cut.
Breakthrough Signal: If gold prices stabilize at 3900, a new round of upside will begin. 🚀
Silver Linkage: Silver's bullish momentum is strong and may attract wider retail participation.
The "depreciation trade" trend is gaining momentum, and the foundation for a structural bull market in gold is solid! Seize the opportunity to layout after the market shakeout and follow the trend to win 💎
