Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | 27/01/2026
1. Momentum
Daily (D1)
– D1 momentum is currently compressing. This indicates that bullish pressure is still present; however, momentum has weakened, so a potential reversal risk exists.
→ The broader trend remains bullish, but strong corrective moves should be treated with caution.
H4
– H4 momentum is currently in the oversold zone.
→ This suggests that H4 is likely preparing to form a base and initiate a bullish reversal in the near term.
H1
– H1 momentum is currently declining.
→ In the short term, H1 may continue to correct for several more H1 candles before completing the pullback.
2. Wave Structure
Daily (D1) Wave Structure
– On the daily timeframe, price remains within a 5-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5) marked in blue.
– At this stage, blue wave 5 is extending, making it very difficult to precisely identify the termination point.
– In Elliott Wave theory, extensions reflect extreme bullish sentiment.
– When market psychology normalizes, the corrective move that follows is often sharp and aggressive.
→ Therefore, the current phase of XAUUSD requires a high level of caution.
H4 Wave Structure
– The corrective structure on H4 is expanding and developing multiple internal sub-structures.
→ As a result, accurate wave identification is not feasible until the structure is fully completed.
– For now, we rely on two key principles to define observation zones:
– Waves of the same degree often show similarities in time and price length.
– Waves within a structure typically maintain Fibonacci relationships with one another.
– Based on these principles, I am temporarily labeling a 1–2–3–4–5 structure in yellow on the H4 timeframe for monitoring purposes.
– Up to this point, the H4 correction remains consistent with the internal corrective waves within yellow wave 3.
H4 Scenario Monitoring
– If H4 momentum reverses upward and price breaks above the previous high, the market is likely still within yellow wave 3.
– Conversely, if the upcoming H4 rally fails to produce a new high, the probability increases that price is transitioning into yellow wave 4.
H1 Wave Structure
– On the H1 timeframe, an ABC structure has formed, and price is currently in a corrective rebound.
– However, at the present moment:
– H1 momentum has already turned bearish
– Price has failed to create a new high
→ Therefore, no immediate entry is warranted. We should wait for:
– H1 momentum to decline into the oversold zone
– At that point, a Buy setup can be considered based on:
– The ABC corrective structure on H1
– Alignment with the anticipated bullish reversal in H4 momentum
3. Target Zone
– A Fibonacci confluence zone from multiple waves is located around the 4957 price area.
→ This zone is considered the potential termination area for the current H1 correction.
– Regarding profit targets:
– We will continue monitoring subsequent momentum reversals on H1 and H4
– Once bullish momentum is confirmed, trade management will be handled in phases.
4. Trading Plan
– Buy Setup Zone: 4958 – 4955
– Stop Loss: 4937
– Take Profit Levels:
– TP1: 4978
– TP2: 5021
– TP3: 5060
Long
